NBA Draft Lottery

[Capt. Factorial]

It's been hinted on twitter that he's somewhat "gamed" the system to use Kentucky as a training grounds for the NBA, and we all know Calipari's history so... even rumors are going to hold more weight. Personally, I say who cares, the college game is as corrupt as any other pro sport.

I can see that. It does look a bit like he "gamed" the system, but it's not like it was wholly unethical or something. I can see that being a dark cloud for a UK fan, but for an NBA scout?

The way I see it, he followed the rules, he saw an opening that looked useful, UK was OK with it, and he took it. Had he not gone to UK, he still could have been eligible for the draft this year (see Leonard Miller, potentially prep-to-pros this draft) and might have actually had a bit more game tape to go on.

My (current) worry on Sharpe is the paucity of game tape against elite competition, but not the UK situation. If some other character stuff comes out, so be it, but for now it's all about talent and none about character.

 

[EIM86]

I’d be even more upset with a trade like that than taking Murray. Heck no. Absolutely not.

I’d be ok with Bey and the #5 for #4 and whatever else is needed to make it work

 

[SLAB]

I’d be ok with Bey and the #5 for #4 and whatever else is needed to make it work

I’m in on that. If someone wants 4, they’re going to have to PAY. We have all the leverage. We’ll take the guy YOU want if your don’t pay up.

 

[SacTownKid]

I’m in on that. If someone wants 4, they’re going to have to PAY. We have all the leverage. We’ll take the guy YOU want if your don’t pay up.

Hang that Ivey threat over their head. Bey/Murray or Sharpe is a good call because Ivey is a top 4 pick no matter how you slice it. Pass him up if he's there and you could be making a catastrophic mistake that 2 fits with talent would make much easier to swallow.

 

[hrdboild]

Yeah, and they were both PF's in a league where PF's are a thing of the past. And if you're talking about Giles his knees were shot. To me, the way to look at top rung players is simple at first, who is like them at the NBA level and what kind of value/success are you seeing. Athletic G/F's that show some shooting prowess are really valuable. The thing about even high school players now is that from the age of 14 or even younger they are pretty much working out and/or playing against the same big names you see in college. Yes, this is the knock on him. There is less verifiable evidence because of that lack for national exposure at the next highest level. But, the same went for Kobe Bryant and Kevin Garnett. And LeBron. On the flipside, had Sharpe played in college and dominated, or maybe not even since there isn't a single player in this draft that truly looked dominant, he probably wouldn't even be in the discussion at 4. Heck, maybe he isn't anyway. Orlando could very well take the gamble themselves.

There are far too many examples of elite, super athletic high school stud guards washing out either in college or the NBA to say with any degree of confidence that Sharpe is worthy of a top 5 pick just because of his ranking. Nobody here has any idea if Shaedon Sharpe is the fourth best player in this draft or not and anyone who says they do is lying. Some of the Kentucky players have some idea and some GMs may have some idea by the time the draft comes around if his agent consents to more than just a cursory shootaround session.

 

[sactowndog]

Disagree, Ivey is a SG with combo potential. If Haliburton had Ivey's athletic skill and physical prowess he'd still be here. A 3 headed snake at PG/SG of Fox/Ivey/Davion is alpha as you get athletically. Minutes wise you can even cut the fat and get everyone near to or legit starters minutes. Fox/Ivey 34 mpg, Davion soaks up those 6th man minutes and would still get 28 mpg. All 3 can play together.

Ivy is 6’ 3” and needs the ball in his hands to be effective and his weaknesses are outside shooting and defense. He is Fox 2.0

 

[SacTownKid]

There are far too many examples of elite, super athletic high school stud guards washing out either in college or the NBA to say with any degree of confidence that Sharpe is worthy of a top 5 pick just because of his ranking. Nobody here has any idea if Shaedon Sharpe is the fourth best player in this draft or not and anyone who says they do is lying. Some of the Kentucky players have some idea and some GMs may have some idea by the time the draft comes around if his agent consents to more than just a cursory shootaround session.

OK, how many of them were ranked number 1 in high school with that physical profile? Nobody has any idea who for sure is the best. This isn't a LeBron/Zion draft with a consensus although the top 3 appears to be settling. I still wouldn't at all be suprised to see Johnny Davis come out in 10 years as the best or close to it, but value at this point doesn't indicate you take him at 4 if mocks hold up to the opinion of GM's. Draft picks also have to maintain or have some value as an asset as well. If you reach on someone and it comes to the point you want to package them sooner than later, it's likely that the GM's who thought you bungled that pick will still feel that way and not see the value in trading for them either. The Kings didn't expect to be in the meaty part of the 2nd tier, they are now, playing this safe and not considering all avenues would be a total mistake. I still think there isn't a single rookie that's going to turn this around next year on their own for sure. That's going to come on the backs of Fox/Ox, the coach, and health. However, if in a worst case the team fails there's a few high, high potential guys in Sharpe/Ivey that would be pretty nice to fall back on in a worst case. Even if they fizzle the gamble would be worth it since you're likely going to get some serious assets when moving Fox/Ox.

 

[SacTownKid]

Ivy is 6’ 3” and needs the ball in his hands to be effective and his weaknesses are outside shooting and defense. He is Fox 2.0

I'm not sure what his measurements are, and likely only teams will know those. Donovan Mitchell is probably around his area, just fine for a modern SG/PG. Ivey is that young and probably around 200 pounds. That's Fox if he gasses up and hits the weights hard. They are both long and big for combo G's but Ivey is going to naturally carry more weight. He has the tools to be an awesome defender and did show total lock down ability at times. He's not a finished product by any stretch and his improvement combined with that unlimited athletic ability is an easy call when it comes to potential.

 

[KaiJonesBall]

There are far too many examples of elite, super athletic high school stud guards washing out either in college or the NBA to say with any degree of confidence that Sharpe is worthy of a top 5 pick just because of his ranking. Nobody here has any idea if Shaedon Sharpe is the fourth best player in this draft or not and anyone who says they do is lying. Some of the Kentucky players have some idea and some GMs may have some idea by the time the draft comes around if his agent consents to more than just a cursory shootaround session.

Romeo Langford comes to mind. I thought he had superstar potential coming out high school. Whoops! Sharpe is better athlete but they both have an eerily similar way about them where I watch and wonder whether they actually like playing the game.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Is there? If I understand he was technically graduated from high school and at a "prep" and then decided to re-class and go to Kentucky in the middle of this school year. But as he wasn't up to speed with UK, he and Cal decided not to play him, with both parties originally saying he'd play at UK in '22-'23. I guess he figured he had a good idea of where he stood in terms of the draft after running through practices with the UK squad and bailed on the whole college plans. Is there anything more to it than that?

yeah, supposedly no injury concerns, but it is a very unconventional approach vs. going the Ignite route?
Is NIL paying better than G-League?

 

[hrdboild]

OK, how many of them were ranked number 1 in high school with that physical profile? Nobody has any idea who for sure is the best. This isn't a LeBron/Zion draft with a consensus although the top 3 appears to be settling. I still wouldn't at all be suprised to see Johnny Davis come out in 10 years as the best or close to it, but value at this point doesn't indicate you take him at 4 if mocks hold up to the opinion of GM's. Draft picks also have to maintain or have some value as an asset as well. If you reach on someone and it comes to the point you want to package them sooner than later, it's likely that the GM's who thought you bungled that pick will still feel that way and not see the value in trading for them either. The Kings didn't expect to be in the meaty part of the 2nd tier, they are now, playing this safe and not considering all avenues would be a total mistake. I still think there isn't a single rookie that's going to turn this around next year on their own for sure. That's going to come on the backs of Fox/Ox, the coach, and health. However, if in a worst case the team fails there's a few high, high potential guys in Sharpe/Ivey that would be pretty nice to fall back on in a worst case. Even if they fizzle the gamble would be worth it since you're likely going to get some serious assets when moving Fox/Ox.

I thought Harrison Barnes was the next Kobe Bryant based on his high school tape. He was incredibly strong, could jump out of the gym, could shoot it from all over the floor, and he was freakishly well-spoken for an 18 year old. I'm just saying you never know. Even players who can't get off the bench in the NBA looked like superstars in high school.

I agree with most of the points you're making here. It's worth considering the relative value of certain prospects to other teams across the league. If you fall in love with someone projected much lower usually you can make a deal to acquire multiple assets plus trading down could get you the player you want at a lower salary. I'm not completely dismissing the high upside picks in favor of playing it safe. My main argument in the draft is just to make sure you're taking a basketball player not just an athlete. The ability to run, jump, and shoot in isolation don't necessarily mean you can process the game at the level needed to excel against NBA competition.

 

[Livinthedream]

Bey is an average player. Streaky shooter. Shot 34% from 3 this season. Has a tendency to disappear. Poor defender. If you're going to make a move with the 4th pick, go big.

Go get Siakam or someone of that quality.

 

[Kingster]

You're referencing an exchange that took place months ago in a different part of the forum. I don't know how anyone else was supposed to know that. In any case, I don't think 6'6" in shoes is even undersized for a SF anymore. He'll be a SG for his first few years in the league and then he might switch over to SF once he's gotten stronger like Andre Igoudala or Jaylen Brown.

I knew it. All you had to do is compare his height to the people he was playing at. Great, in five years when he's filled out he can be Iggy or Brown. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Kingster]

Sharpe was touted as the next big thing for a long time and rated number 1 coming out of high school. He's not the dark horse people think he is in any other way that he sat out a college year and there's a cloud as to why.

He might have had a big rep in high school, but unless they've actually seen them with their own eyes in the real world or on film in game conditions, those workouts are worthless for the reasons I stated.

 

[Kingster]

I don't know what Mathurin's height is, but I don't believe he's been officially measured yet.

Good to know. Maybe he's 6'4.5"

 

[SacTownKid]

I thought Harrison Barnes was the next Kobe Bryant based on his high school tape. He was incredibly strong, could jump out of the gym, could shoot it from all over the floor, and he was freakishly well-spoken for an 18 year old. I'm just saying you never know. Even players who can't get off the bench in the NBA looked like superstars in high school.

I agree with most of the points you're making here. It's worth considering the relative value of certain prospects to other teams across the league. If you fall in love with someone projected much lower usually you can make a deal to acquire multiple assets plus trading down could get you the player you want at a lower salary. I'm not completely dismissing the high upside picks in favor of playing it safe. My main argument in the draft is just to make sure you're taking a basketball player not just an athlete. The ability to run, jump, and shoot in isolation don't necessarily mean you can process the game at the level needed to excel against NBA competition.

I agree with your points as well, to me, I see every player here not just being an athlete though. They all show skills and could fit IMO. That's why Monte making trades to clear the clutter at PG/SG is looking pretty sweet right now.

 

[SacTownKid]

He might have had a big rep in high school, but unless they've actually seen them with their own eyes in the real world or on film in game conditions, those workouts are worthless for the reasons I stated.

In game conditions like what? This isn't a kid that never was involved in high level competition of some degree. EYBL is the breeding ground for those college and NBA players. There is such an early process to all of this now when it comes to scouting.

 

[reptilexcq2]

I was hoping Kings get top 3 picks once they announced we're in the final FOUR picks lol. But damm, that was awesome. I think Kings should pick Ivey instead of picking position. Remember, when Kings dodged Doncic because we have FOX? How it really haunted the organization since then....

 

[kingsboi]

I’d be ok with Bey and the #5 for #4 and whatever else is needed to make it work

this would be a great trade for the Kings. Bey is a stud.

 

[sactowndog]

Just a point on Eason’s measurables today. Handwidth is a huge factor. The dude measured an 11” handwidth which is huge. Just to give you a sense, here are the non centers in the NBA with that hand size or larger…..

Eason hand width 11.0.
Largest in his class

Kawhi Leonard. 11.25
Micheal Jordan 11.35
Royce White. 11.5
Elgin Baylor 11.0
Julius Irving 11.75
Noah Vonlee. 11.75
Giannis 12.00

Eason has to be the pick if he even makes it to 4.

 

[hrdboild]

Just a point on Eason’s measurables today. Handwidth is a huge factor. The dude measured an 11” handwidth which is huge. Just to give you a sense, here are the non centers in the NBA with that hand size or larger…..

Eason hand width 11.0.
Largest in his class

Kawhi Leonard. 11.25
Micheal Jordan 11.35
Royce White. 11.5
Elgin Baylor 11.0
Julius Irving 11.75
Noah Vonlee. 11.75

Eason has to be the pick if he even makes it to 4.

You've got to love draft season! It feels like funkykingston and I have been fighting an uphill battle for three months trying to get anyone to take Tari Eason seriously as one of the elite prospects in this draft and suddenly the hand size and wingspan measurements come out and he's everyone's favorite player.

 

[sactowndog]

You've got to love draft season! It feels like funkykingston and I have been fighting an uphill battle for three months trying to get anyone to take Tari Eason seriously as one of the elite prospects in this draft and suddenly the hand size and wingspan measurements come out and he's everyone's favorite player.

Measurables matter in terms of success at the next level in any sport. My son played Olympic Water Polo because he had a 6’ 10 wingspan.

Eason’s reported wingspan was all over the place. He came in at the high end both for wingspan and hand size.

 

[twslam07]

Why not try and trade up for Holmgren?

His combination of shooting, scoring, passing, IQ, length, defense, rim protection, ability to impact the game without the ball in hands, etc. all pair extremely well with Sabonis. His biggest weakness (his strength) would be somewhat mitigated considering Sabonis is able to bang with the stronger Cs in the league.

1. De’Aaron Fox & #4 for Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz, & #1
2. De’Aaron Fox & #4 for Kenrich Williams, Lu Dort, & #2

PG - Mitchell / Fultz
SG - DiVincenzo / Davis
SF - Barnes / Holiday / Harkless
PF - Holmgren / Isaac / Lyles / Metu
C - Sabonis / Holmes / Len

PG - Mitchell / DiVincenzo
SG - Dort / Davis
SF - Barnes / Holiday / Harkless
PF - Holmgren / Williams / Lyles / Metu
C - Sabonis / Holmes / Len

You’d have to feel pretty confident that Mitchell is ready for a starting role in these scenarios. You’d also still have Holmes to trade for a better fitting piece. Inserting Mitchell, DiVincenzo/Dort, and Holmgren into the starting lineup sure would bolster our defense quite a bit.

Or maybe we just offer up our 2023 1st (unprotected) with #4 to move up. Would be more of a “win now” type of trade which McNair would likely be more akin to make.

PG - Fox / Mitchell
SG - DiVincenzo / Davis
SF - Barnes / Holiday
PF - Holmgren / Lyles / Metu
C - Sabonis / Holmes / Len

 

[Kingster]

Why not try and trade up for Holmgren?

His combination of shooting, scoring, passing, IQ, length, defense, rim protection, ability to impact the game without the ball in hands, etc. all pair extremely well with Sabonis. His biggest weakness (his strength) would be somewhat mitigated considering Sabonis is able to bang with the stronger Cs in the league.

1. De’Aaron Fox & #4 for Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz, & #1
2. De’Aaron Fox & #4 for Kenrich Williams, Lu Dort, & #2

PG - Mitchell / Fultz
SG - DiVincenzo / Davis
SF - Barnes / Holiday / Harkless
PF - Holmgren / Isaac / Lyles / Metu
C - Sabonis / Holmes / Len

PG - Mitchell / DiVincenzo
SG - Dort / Davis
SF - Barnes / Holiday / Harkless
PF - Holmgren / Williams / Lyles / Metu
C - Sabonis / Holmes / Len

You’d have to feel pretty confident that Mitchell is ready for a starting role in these scenarios. You’d also still have Holmes to trade for a better fitting piece. Inserting Mitchell, DiVincenzo/Dort, and Holmgren into the starting lineup sure would bolster our defense quite a bit.

Or maybe we just offer up our 2023 1st (unprotected) with #4 to move up. Would be more of a “win now” type of trade which McNair would likely be more akin to make.

PG - Fox / Mitchell
SG - DiVincenzo / Davis
SF - Barnes / Holiday
PF - Holmgren / Lyles / Metu
C - Sabonis / Holmes / Len

Nooooooooooooooooooooo!

 

[Kingster]

In game conditions like what? This isn't a kid that never was involved in high level competition of some degree. EYBL is the breeding ground for those college and NBA players. There is such an early process to all of this now when it comes to scouting.

You know, games. Like real games where people want to win badly and where there are pressure situations and big stadiums and crazy fans and stuff. I don't know what EYBL is. You'll have fill me the down-low on the acronym.

 

[LPKingsFan]

You know, games. Like real games where people want to win badly and where there are pressure situations and big stadiums and crazy fans and stuff. I don't know what EYBL is. You'll have fill me the down-low on the acronym.

I thought with advanced stats we’ve moved beyond the EYBL test

 

[Kingster]

I thought with advanced stats we’ve moved beyond the EYBL test

Oh that's what it is!

 

[SacTownKid]

You know, games. Like real games where people want to win badly and where there are pressure situations and big stadiums and crazy fans and stuff. I don't know what EYBL is. You'll have fill me the down-low on the acronym.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nike_Elite_Youth_Basketball_League

 

[hrdboild]

I thought with advanced stats we’ve moved beyond the EYBL test

With machine learning we've moved beyond eyeballs entirely. They're now a liability because they only show you what is actually there whereas an algorithm and enough processing power will show you everything that was, is, and will be. Someone with a computer somewhere knows exactly how many points Chet Holmgren will score in his NBA career, how many games he will miss due to injury, and whether his teams will win more playoff games then they lose. Also these people will never be wrong because any algorithm which doesn't work will simply be replaced with a better algorithm and since there will always be more Data there will always be a better algorithm. I suppose it could be argued that this also means the algorithm will never be right either, but that's not relevant because Data drives the algorithm and Data is never wrong.

Our only hope is that The Algorithm (because in the not too distant future all algorithms will merge into one) will some day work well enough for us to map a way backward to a point in time where we can eliminate the idea before it ever catches on, thus closing the loop and rescuing us from the tyranny of the "that only exists if my computer says it exists" polynomial de-revolution.

 

[serbiangoat]

Why not try and trade up for Holmgren?

His combination of shooting, scoring, passing, IQ, length, defense, rim protection, ability to impact the game without the ball in hands, etc. all pair extremely well with Sabonis. His biggest weakness (his strength) would be somewhat mitigated considering Sabonis is able to bang with the stronger Cs in the league.

1. De’Aaron Fox & #4 for Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz, & #1
2. De’Aaron Fox & #4 for Kenrich Williams, Lu Dort, & #2

PG - Mitchell / Fultz
SG - DiVincenzo / Davis
SF - Barnes / Holiday / Harkless
PF - Holmgren / Isaac / Lyles / Metu
C - Sabonis / Holmes / Len

PG - Mitchell / DiVincenzo
SG - Dort / Davis
SF - Barnes / Holiday / Harkless
PF - Holmgren / Williams / Lyles / Metu
C - Sabonis / Holmes / Len

You’d have to feel pretty confident that Mitchell is ready for a starting role in these scenarios. You’d also still have Holmes to trade for a better fitting piece. Inserting Mitchell, DiVincenzo/Dort, and Holmgren into the starting lineup sure would bolster our defense quite a bit.

Or maybe we just offer up our 2023 1st (unprotected) with #4 to move up. Would be more of a “win now” type of trade which McNair would likely be more akin to make.

PG - Fox / Mitchell
SG - DiVincenzo / Davis
SF - Barnes / Holiday
PF - Holmgren / Lyles / Metu
C - Sabonis / Holmes / Len

Can't see OKC trading for Fox imo SGA is a much better player than him and Fox would only limit him and the Thunder salary cap moving forward.