Looking ahead to the 2022 Draft

[The_Jamal]

It's draft hype Bingo! .... wingspan.... tools ... can handle the ball ... drive in a straight line... has a good feel ... grew up playing PG ... a great frame....

This one paragraph is the verse, chorus, and middle 8 of internet draft analysis. I have no idea if he's right or not but I'm pretty sure these descriptions could be applied to like 80% of the players ever drafted into the NBA.

Don't forget only comparing players to like a 90%+ ceiling they might become. No one is ever Steve Blake or James Posey.

 

[serbiangoat]

Don't forget only comparing players to like a 90%+ ceiling they might become. No one is ever Steve Blake or James Posey.

Prime James Posey on the current Kings team would help immensely

 

[Kingster]

If the Kings stay at 7 and the top of the draft goes chalk, I'd call the Hornets about trading #7 for #13 & #15.

I think Duren is likely the BPA at #7 and he's much more of an ideal fit with LaMelo Ball and a bad Charlotte defense than with the Kings and Sabonis. He's a year and a half younger than Holmgren with elite tools and will be a vertical lob threat from day 1. I think the Hornets would take that deal.

And with #13 & #15 I'd be looking at a combo like Tari Eason and Malaki Branham.

Seems reasonable to me, at least from a Kings' perspective. What's your backup plan if one of those guys is gone?

 

[Kingster]

Mathurin is shrinking, at least according to one draft analyst. (See link below). He's now only 6'6". By Draft Day he might get down to 6'5".

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/...ling-goes-no-1-ahead-of-dukes-paolo-banchero/

It's interesting to me that this writer has Agbaji going to the Kings at #7. I could easily see that. He fits with the type of player that McNair likes - physical defender, fundamentally sound, good shooter, and likely to produce in his rookie year.

 

[funkykingston]

Seems reasonable to me, at least from a Kings' perspective. What's your backup plan if one of those guys is gone?

Assuming guys like Mathurin and Griffin don't slide, I think you're looking at Dyson Daniels, Jeremy Sochan, Ochai Agbaji, Kendall Brown, Blake Wesley and EJ Liddell at those spots.

 

[hrdboild]

Assuming guys like Mathurin and Griffin don't slide, I think you're looking at Dyson Daniels, Jeremy Sochan, Ochai Agbaji, Kendall Brown, Blake Wesley and EJ Liddell at those spots.

Jeremy Sochan has been growing on me as an option for us. He really is a terrific defender and plays a style of defense that I think will translate very well to the NBA. His shooting issues may be a deal breaker for some fans, but he has other skills on offense to build on and he at least has a consistent shooting form without a lot of extraneous movement going on so there's hope he can improve his outside shooting percentage dramatically with a lot more reps. Statistically speaking, he looks good on paper with just one obvious flaw to correct -- that TS% which is dragging down all of his other offensive stats.

 

[hrdboild]

Mathurin is shrinking, at least according to one draft analyst. (See link below). He's now only 6'6". By Draft Day he might get down to 6'5".

I hope so! The shorter he gets, the more likely he is to still be available for us. He's still my #1 prospect in the draft this year.

 

[Kingster]

I hope so! The shorter he gets, the more likely he is to still be available for us. He's still my #1 prospect in the draft this year.

Yeah, if he shrinks to 6'4" the Kings could trade down to #30 in the first round to get him.

I am diametrically opposed to your opinion on Mathurin. It's interesting to me that not only is his size shrinking, but also his draft status among the mock drafts. I don't know how these guys do these mocks, but maybe a little more film watching has changed their assessment of Mathurin. Mathurin used to be around #5. Now in this mock he's #10. Agbaji, on the other hand, was down in the teens; now this mock has him flying past Mathurin to the Kings at #7. It will be interesting to see on Draft Day where both are actually drafted.

 

[funkykingston]

Yeah, if he shrinks to 6'4" the Kings could trade down to #30 in the first round to get him.

I am diametrically opposed to your opinion on Mathurin. It's interesting to me that not only is his size shrinking, but also his draft status among the mock drafts. I don't know how these guys do these mocks, but maybe a little more film watching has changed their assessment of Mathurin. Mathurin used to be around #5. Now in this mock he's #10. Agbaji, on the other hand, was down in the teens; now this mock has him flying past Mathurin to the Kings at #7. It will be interesting to see on Draft Day where both are actually drafted.

I like Agbaji, so I don't want to see this as a knock on him, but Mathurin's numbers his first two years are miles ahead of where Ochai's were. I think Mathurin is the better player right now and he also has more growth potential in the future. I'm not as high on Mathurin as hrdboiled, but I have around the 9-12 range and I wouldn't take Agbaji in the lottery. Just my opinion.

 

[SacTownKid]

Mathurin is shrinking, at least according to one draft analyst. (See link below). He's now only 6'6". By Draft Day he might get down to 6'5".

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/...ling-goes-no-1-ahead-of-dukes-paolo-banchero/

It's interesting to me that this writer has Agbaji going to the Kings at #7. I could easily see that. He fits with the type of player that McNair likes - physical defender, fundamentally sound, good shooter, and likely to produce in his rookie year.

If the Kings don't move up any of Davis, Agbaji, Mathurin, AJ Griffin will do IMO. If Agbaji impresses in workouts/interviews then that should do it.

 

[SacTownKid]

Assuming guys like Mathurin and Griffin don't slide, I think you're looking at Dyson Daniels, Jeremy Sochan, Ochai Agbaji, Kendall Brown, Blake Wesley and EJ Liddell at those spots.

As it is the Kings could slide to 10 and still have a shot at one of the prime guard/wings. If they reach on anyone like Sochan, Daniels, etc. then they are overthinking this one.

 

[Kingster]

I like Agbaji, so I don't want to see this as a knock on him, but Mathurin's numbers his first two years are miles ahead of where Ochai's were. I think Mathurin is the better player right now and he also has more growth potential in the future. I'm not as high on Mathurin as hrdboiled, but I have around the 9-12 range and I wouldn't take Agbaji in the lottery. Just my opinion.

Yeah, there are some who have been very high on Mathurin. I'm willing to deal with it if I'm wrong. Having watched these playoffs I noticed one player that I was very wrong on - Grant Williams. No way, no how, did I think Williams could be as good as he is. His lateral foot speed is much better than I thought. And his outside shooting has been very good. Essentially, I thought he was a football player in basketball clothing. Kudos to Williams. I'd love to see him in a Kings uni. Win some, lose some.

 

[funkykingston]

Yeah, there are some who have been very high on Mathurin. I'm willing to deal with it if I'm wrong. Having watched these playoffs I noticed one player that I was very wrong on - Grant Williams. No way, no how, did I think Williams could be as good as he is. His lateral foot speed is much better than I thought. And his outside shooting has been very good. Essentially, I thought he was a football player in basketball clothing. Kudos to Williams. I'd love to see him in a Kings uni. Win some, lose some.

Not the same player, but the guy in this draft that I think people will be viewing similarly in a few years is EJ Liddell. Strong but undersized PF who will come out as a junior and has defensive versatility and a solid outside shot along with some other skills.

I think teams will wonder how he slipped to the late teens/early 20's if that's where he ends up being drafted.

 

[The_Jamal]

Not the same player, but the guy in this draft that I think people will be viewing similarly in a few years is EJ Liddell. Strong but undersized PF who will come out as a junior and has defensive versatility and a solid outside shot along with some other skills.

I think teams will wonder how he slipped to the late teens/early 20's if that's where he ends up being drafted.

Liddell is Bane/Herb Jones of this draft. Basically everything in his profile shows he can be a modern quality starting 4, but because he's "older" (although 21 isn't like a crazy difference), he's going to fall further than he should.

Love everything about how he plays. He's a defensive-first guy, goes super hard, is a rim-protecting 4 (very rare archetype and especially valuable next to Sabonis long-term). And he's had a really nice linear offensive improvement rather than just coming out of nowhere to spike as an upper classman.

19-8-2.5 on 59.8% TS and a 30.5% USG is super super impressive when you add in his defensive capability. I'm not entirely sure his offensive game will translate (he's more of a old-school paint bruiser as his best strength), but he's added modern abilities too (the passing, and a reasonably good outside shot).

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Liddell is Bane/Herb Jones of this draft. Basically everything in his profile shows he can be a modern quality starting 4, but because he's "older" (although 21 isn't like a crazy difference), he's going to fall further than he should.

I think it's size more than age that's going to make Liddell drop, but I agree that he is a likely steal in the draft.

 

[The_Jamal]

Yeah, there are some who have been very high on Mathurin. I'm willing to deal with it if I'm wrong. Having watched these playoffs I noticed one player that I was very wrong on - Grant Williams. No way, no how, did I think Williams could be as good as he is. His lateral foot speed is much better than I thought. And his outside shooting has been very good. Essentially, I thought he was a football player in basketball clothing. Kudos to Williams. I'd love to see him in a Kings uni. Win some, lose some.

Grant Williams is one of my favorite targets for us to use that open cap space on after next season to pair with Sabonis long-term. I think he's a true difference maker on defense and he's adding enough offensive tools (the shooting especially) that he's just an incredibly valuable role player. He's kind of the next evolution of PJ Tucker imo.

He's a RFA, so you'd have to overpay for him to get the Celtics not to match, but I'd rather spend cash on him than pay a 31 year old Barnes another long-term contract. And the Celtics will have some potential cap issues coming up (Brown is a UFA the season after, Tatum has a player option the season after that. Smart, White and Bob Williams are all signed long-term), where I'm not sure they'd be able to add another 10-15 mil/season contract to their payroll.

 

[The_Jamal]

I think it's size more than age that's going to make Liddell drop, but I agree that he is a likely steal in the draft.

Makes sense, but I don't think 6'7 with a 7'0 wingspan is undersized for a 4. Maybe because he played a lot of C in the past for Ohio State, but they made a conscious effort to switch him to the 4 this year and he took off.

And to me, makes his tape all that much more impressive. He's a legitimately great rim protector/defensive player without "ideal measurements".

 

[SacTownKid]

Grant Williams is one of my favorite targets for us to use that open cap space on after next season to pair with Sabonis long-term. I think he's a true difference maker on defense and he's adding enough offensive tools (the shooting especially) that he's just an incredibly valuable role player. He's kind of the next evolution of PJ Tucker imo.

He's a RFA, so you'd have to overpay for him to get the Celtics not to match, but I'd rather spend cash on him than pay a 31 year old Barnes another long-term contract. And the Celtics will have some potential cap issues coming up (Brown is a UFA the season after, Tatum has a player option the season after that. Smart, White and Bob Williams are all signed long-term), where I'm not sure they'd be able to add another 10-15 mil/season contract to their payroll.

If they are going full on defense then getting a modern 4/3 like that would be a decent call. If the Kings can lock down that SG spot on a legit talent in this draft who can make up for the talent end then even overpaying for a Williams type wouldn't be that bad.

 

[funkykingston]

Liddell is Bane/Herb Jones of this draft. Basically everything in his profile shows he can be a modern quality starting 4, but because he's "older" (although 21 isn't like a crazy difference), he's going to fall further than he should.

Love everything about how he plays. He's a defensive-first guy, goes super hard, is a rim-protecting 4 (very rare archetype and especially valuable next to Sabonis long-term). And he's had a really nice linear offensive improvement rather than just coming out of nowhere to spike as an upper classman.

19-8-2.5 on 59.8% TS and a 30.5% USG is super super impressive when you add in his defensive capability. I'm not entirely sure his offensive game will translate (he's more of a old-school paint bruiser as his best strength), but he's added modern abilities too (the passing, and a reasonably good outside shot).

Liddell also became better at defending the perimeter this year. He'll become more of a spot up shooter in the NBA both because of his size and his lack of a great handle, but for those of us who want PJ Washington next to Domas, Liddell is very similar.

 

[hrdboild]

Yeah, if he shrinks to 6'4" the Kings could trade down to #30 in the first round to get him.

I am diametrically opposed to your opinion on Mathurin. It's interesting to me that not only is his size shrinking, but also his draft status among the mock drafts. I don't know how these guys do these mocks, but maybe a little more film watching has changed their assessment of Mathurin. Mathurin used to be around #5. Now in this mock he's #10. Agbaji, on the other hand, was down in the teens; now this mock has him flying past Mathurin to the Kings at #7. It will be interesting to see on Draft Day where both are actually drafted.

Well the mock draft websites earn their reputation by tracking team opinions, not by ranking the prospects in their order of preference. There hasn't been any more game tape to watch in the last month so we're well into the "overthinking it" phase of prospect evaluation where people are talking themselves into people's tools or overreacting to measurements. I frankly don't even want to know the measurements anymore because I don't think they help with the process, I think they just make people forget about what actually matters and that becomes plainly apparent when these guys step on a court and actually have to play team basketball again.

 

[Kingster]

Well the mock draft websites earn their reputation by tracking team opinions, not by ranking the prospects in their order of preference. There hasn't been any more game tape to watch in the last month so we're well into the "overthinking it" phase of prospect evaluation where people are talking themselves into people's tools or overreacting to measurements. I frankly don't even want to know the measurements anymore because I don't think they help with the process, I think they just make people forget about what actually matters and that becomes plainly apparent when these guys step on a court and actually have to play team basketball again.

And there's going to be a lag time from the NCAAs until those opinions are reflected in these mocks. I think the NCAA tourney hurt Mathurin and helped Agbaji.

 

[ESP47]

Jeremy Sochan has been growing on me as an option for us. He really is a terrific defender and plays a style of defense that I think will translate very well to the NBA. His shooting issues may be a deal breaker for some fans, but he has other skills on offense to build on and he at least has a consistent shooting form without a lot of extraneous movement going on so there's hope he can improve his outside shooting percentage dramatically with a lot more reps. Statistically speaking, he looks good on paper with just one obvious flaw to correct -- that TS% which is dragging down all of his other offensive stats.

I feel like Sochan type players are a dime a dozen in the G league. Guys that can defend but can't shoot or score worth a lick. I don't see anything about his shooting numbers that tell me he has anything more than a single digit percentage chance of ever being able to shoot efficiently.

 

[hrdboild]

I feel like Sochan type players are a dime a dozen in the G league. Guys that can defend but can't shoot or score worth a lick. I don't see anything about his shooting numbers that tell me he has anything more than a single digit percentage chance of ever being able to shoot efficiently.

I did say that his shooting issues would be a deal breaker for some. The appeal with Sochan is that he has elite defensive potential. You're not finding that in the G League. Guys that can "defend" are a dime a dozen. Put them in the NBA though and they can actually only defend mediocre offensive players. Is Kawhi Leonard's defense a dime a dozen? Draymond Green? There's a big difference between a player who moves their feet well and a player who is capable of anchoring a top 5 defense, locking down an elite scorer, or taking over a game with momentum swinging plays. And if we're looking for one player who can elevate this team into no worse than top 8 in the conference next season, it could be argued that we need an elite defender at the 3/4 positions more than we need another shooter.

 

[hrdboild]

And there's going to be a lag time from the NCAAs until those opinions are reflected in these mocks. I think the NCAA tourney hurt Mathurin and helped Agbaji.

Well, I also don't put much stock in a few single elimination games in March. Especially not if Mathurin can score 30 points, force OT with a clutch 3 pointer, and then outscore TCU by himself in OT to secure the win and see his stock go down.

 

[kb02]

Jeremy Sochan has been growing on me as an option for us. He really is a terrific defender and plays a style of defense that I think will translate very well to the NBA. His shooting issues may be a deal breaker for some fans, but he has other skills on offense to build on and he at least has a consistent shooting form without a lot of extraneous movement going on so there's hope he can improve his outside shooting percentage dramatically with a lot more reps. Statistically speaking, he looks good on paper with just one obvious flaw to correct -- that TS% which is dragging down all of his other offensive stats.

He’s in the same mold as Herb Jones, but I think he’s a tick lower as a prospect. Both need work on their shot. Jones’ defense translated seamlessly, because he’s more agile than Sochan. More of the Trevor Ariza pterodactyl defending type while Sochan tends to be more of a Ron Artest type, leaning his knees and body into defenders, which I think will lead to a ton of early fouls. He’ll look completely lost trying to understand what he’s doing wrong early on. Think Sochan is a tick better as a driver of the ball, which is intriguing. But also a tick lower as a creator at this stage in their careers. I’d take him late lottery to mid first. Both are a clear level better than Moody though, who really only has one attribute better than either player.

 

[Telemachus]

I did say that his shooting issues would be a deal breaker for some. The appeal with Sochan is that he has elite defensive potential. You're not finding that in the G League. Guys that can "defend" are a dime a dozen. Put them in the NBA though and they can actually only defend mediocre offensive players. Is Kawhi Leonard's defense a dime a dozen? Draymond Green? There's a big difference between a player who moves their feet well and a player who is capable of anchoring a top 5 defense, locking down an elite scorer, or taking over a game with momentum swinging plays. And if we're looking for one player who can elevate this team into no worse than top 8 in the conference next season, it could be argued that we need an elite defender at the 3/4 positions more than we need another shooter.

What makes Sochan appealing isn't just his defense. He does all the little things that don't show up in a box score. When you watched Baylor play, he was always around the ball on both ends of the court. He also is a good ball-handler and passer. It was not uncommon for him to bring the ball up the court and initiate the offense. I would also point out that he is 6'9, 230 lbs. and doesn't turn 19 untill later this month.

 

[funkykingston]

What makes Sochan appealing isn't just his defense. He does all the little things that don't show up in a box score. When you watched Baylor play, he was always around the ball on both ends of the court. He also is a good ball-handler and passer. It was not uncommon for him to bring the ball up the court and initiate the offense. I would also point out that he is 6'9, 230 lbs. and doesn't turn 19 untill later this month.

Sochan is one of a few potential first round picks whose NBA value really hinges on developing a consistent outside shot. Dyson Daniels, Tari Eason, and Kendall Brown are a few others.

Without it, Sochan is maybe Ben Simmons-lite, which is not a great fit with Fox & Sabonis. With an outside shot I'm not sure what he becomes. Kyle Kuzma who defends like Draymond? Scottie Barnes lite?

His FT% is what has me really concerned about the possibility of him ever even being an average shooter in the NBA.

 

[serbiangoat]

Nikola Jovic: So I just finished watching what will be Jovic's final game in any form of ABA basketball (led his u19's team to the title) and I will say that he had a somewhat disappointing season in the proper men's ABA when compared to expectations. A big part of this was probably him being featured (not a #1 option) and having no one else who could create or draw a double team on the squad,

NBA comp: Joe Inglis with a splash of Gallaneri
He most reminds me of a South Melbourne Dragons Joe Inglis at a similar age, both are excellent passers (high IQ in general), both being excellent long range shooters (ignore his 35% again he didn't get many open looks he's elite or close to it shooting) and I think like Joe at the NBA level he will be at his best off the ball spotting up or using a screen (not beating anyone of the dribble that's not closing out) going to his right (Joe is left) and using his size/smarts in pick n roll situations. Athletically he's not explosive but he's not bad for a 6'10 guy but like a young Joe Inglis has decent hang time in the air and can do the odd chase down block. Like Joe neither have an off hand when it comes to finishing at the rim. Where he's similar to Gallo (not as good a natural scorer/ball handler) is he's got some tricky twists/spins in the post and can do the 1-2 dribble pull up (Joe never had this) I would say size wise he's also closer to Gallo also in his sort of rigid movements he reminds you of Gallo where as Joe is smoother.

I don't think he's a guy who will come in right away (could be wrong) and put up big numbers he will probably be eased into the speed of the NBA depending where he goes I guess. I would say he's a HIGH floor and ok ceiling type guy. He's more a 2/3 despite his size (6'10) and not being explosive than a 3/4 (will be later in his career). His still thin but has a decent frame if he works hard in the gym.
Best case scenario IMO is he get's his defense to the level of Utah Joe and is a 40% 3 point shooter who at times can chip in as a #2 option.
Worst case scenario: Better passing Austin Daye

 

[The_Jamal]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1522594201426268160

Holy, 7-3 wingspan from Eason?? With his burst+energy on the defensive end?

Ohh buddy

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Well, I also don't put much stock in a few single elimination games in March. Especially not if Mathurin can score 30 points, force OT with a clutch 3 pointer, and then outscore TCU by himself in OT to secure the win and see his stock go down.

What hurt Mathurin in the media/casual culture was getting eliminated after 3 games when most folks didn't bother turning on Arizona until the end of the Pac-12 season. So they probably saw the Pac-12 final and two good tourney performances before a "shock" loss to a massively underseeded Houston team (seriously they were rated 8th out of the remaining sweet 16 despite being given a 5 seed).