The Tankathon Thread (since that's apparently what this is now)
- Thread starter Tetsujin
- Start date
The NBA is so unpredictable (and the Kings especially so), that it is hard to predict game by game. Instead, I like to look at the season in 5 game chunks. If we can go 3-2 in each 5 game chunk, and split the last 2, that is 13-9, and probably good enough to get in.
First chunk
Nuggets
at Nuggets
at Thunder
at Pelicans
at Spurs
3-2 seems doable. Maybe you can steal one of the games against the Nuggets. Plus, if you want to make the Play-in then wins against the spurs and Pellies count double. My guess is that we win one of the Nuggets games and lose one of the road games. Maybe you can get to 4-1 and give yourself breathing room for tougher chunks, like the next one...
Second chunk
at Mavs
Knicks
Nuggets
at Jazz
Bulls
This one kind of screams 1-4, so it is imperative to steal a game or two in this chunk (or do better than 3 wins in another chunk). The Knicks is a must win, and maybe you can steal 1 or 2 of the Mavs, Nuggets, or Bulls games. Best guess is 2-3.
Third chunk
at Bucks
Celtics
Suns
at Pacers
at Magic
3-2 is doable, but maybe 2-3 is more likely. I have bad feelings about that Indiana game, so hopefully we can get the two home games and beat Orlando.
Fourth chunk
at Heat
at Rockets
at Rockets
Dubs
Pelicans
3-2 is a minimum here. Must beat the Rockets and Pellies, and maybe you can steal one against Miami (where we have played well recently) or beat the Warriors.
Last two games
at Clippers
at Suns
A tough finish, but I can't imagine we are in position to lose our last two games and make it in. Best case scenario is that Phoenix has nothing to play for the last game.
First chunk
Nuggets
at Nuggets
at Thunder
at Pelicans
at Spurs
3-2 seems doable. Maybe you can steal one of the games against the Nuggets. Plus, if you want to make the Play-in then wins against the spurs and Pellies count double. My guess is that we win one of the Nuggets games and lose one of the road games. Maybe you can get to 4-1 and give yourself breathing room for tougher chunks, like the next one...
Second chunk
at Mavs
Knicks
Nuggets
at Jazz
Bulls
This one kind of screams 1-4, so it is imperative to steal a game or two in this chunk (or do better than 3 wins in another chunk). The Knicks is a must win, and maybe you can steal 1 or 2 of the Mavs, Nuggets, or Bulls games. Best guess is 2-3.
Third chunk
at Bucks
Celtics
Suns
at Pacers
at Magic
3-2 is doable, but maybe 2-3 is more likely. I have bad feelings about that Indiana game, so hopefully we can get the two home games and beat Orlando.
Fourth chunk
at Heat
at Rockets
at Rockets
Dubs
Pelicans
3-2 is a minimum here. Must beat the Rockets and Pellies, and maybe you can steal one against Miami (where we have played well recently) or beat the Warriors.
Last two games
at Clippers
at Suns
A tough finish, but I can't imagine we are in position to lose our last two games and make it in. Best case scenario is that Phoenix has nothing to play for the last game.
when you read anything that sounds like “seems doable” on this forum 9 times out of 10 it doesn’t happen for us. We still need a legitimate 3rd scorer (could be Barnes down the stretch we’ll see) , better shooters/defenders, and most definitely a new coach. I’d prefer to end up with a top pick where we end up saying, “the foundation with Fox/Sabonis is clearly there, just add more talent that fits with them and we’ll be at least a playoff team”. Cause the thing is, the west is only getting better next season with Denver and the Clippers coming back to full health. We need more talent to get away from the play-in spots
How many more teams can he get to mortgage their future for him as he exits the league? If he jumps before Bronny enters the league, some team is going to draft him higher than they should just for his final year, but would his next team trade all their draft picks so he can bring over a few friends?
As long as it isn't us..
As long as it isn't us..
It’ll all depend on if we play down to our competition or not. If we play how we did against the nuggets last night consistently, we will win a good amount of games. If we play like we did pretrade and bad enough to lose to teams playing g-leaguers cuz of injury, our draft is look good.
We will see tomorrow cuz…
We will see tomorrow cuz…
I know we’re pretty far behind the Lakers but they’re completely free falling so thought I’d mentioned they lost to the Mavs tonight. It’s a low chance, but I wouldn’t say it’s impossible that they miss the play-in.
The Lakers also have the second toughest remaining schedule in the league, with an opponent winning % of .546.
The Lakers also have the second toughest remaining schedule in the league, with an opponent winning % of .546.
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Probably a good time to pull the plug on hoping to be the 20th best team in the league and start focusing on draft position. At least if we "pull the plug" early enough like right now we can lock ourselves in the 4-6 range pre lottery. If we keep pushing and playing key guys 40min a game until the play in is mathematically impossible we could be in the 8-10 range since smarter teams will adjust earlier. The difference in the odds is huge between those tiers:
Our coach wont even be here next year, there is very little to be gained from going all in for win now rest of the year but a lot to lose if we end up doing that (draft position - likelyhood to draft a difference maker).
In order to be actually competitive we need an (all) star level player next to Sabonis and Fox. A solid 3&D guy isnt enough for that. Bulls model is hard to follow since we most likely arent signing a top 5 MVP candidate in the free agency with the addition of extremely high end role players. Draft is the most likely route for getting that impact player and now we have a chance to put ourself in a pretty good position to get that. Its extremely doable to finnish 5th pre lottery and then you have a very good chance to get a top 4 pick. If once again we dont do that its our own fault and continues to pile on the bad decision making that has caused this embarrasing run of 16 years and god only knows how long it will keep on going.
Our coach wont even be here next year, there is very little to be gained from going all in for win now rest of the year but a lot to lose if we end up doing that (draft position - likelyhood to draft a difference maker).
In order to be actually competitive we need an (all) star level player next to Sabonis and Fox. A solid 3&D guy isnt enough for that. Bulls model is hard to follow since we most likely arent signing a top 5 MVP candidate in the free agency with the addition of extremely high end role players. Draft is the most likely route for getting that impact player and now we have a chance to put ourself in a pretty good position to get that. Its extremely doable to finnish 5th pre lottery and then you have a very good chance to get a top 4 pick. If once again we dont do that its our own fault and continues to pile on the bad decision making that has caused this embarrasing run of 16 years and god only knows how long it will keep on going.
They're in the same scenario they always find themselves in. They'll wind up ahead of the Spurs, Blazers and possibly the Knicks and wind up 8-9. Fox will continue to get 38-40mpg until they are mathematically eliminated. By then it will be too late and they will have passed the other teams who already let off the gas. It's the definition of insanity.
