Expectations? Not very high....bringing back many of the same players.
- The 2020-21 pre-ASG team has a DETRTG of 119.1. The post-ASG team had a DETRTG of 113.8. That's a significant drop due, looking strictly at personnel change, to trading out some bench players.
- There's every reason to expect at least some of the "same players" to be better defensively. Do you, does anyone, think that Fox, Haliburton, and Bagley can't be better? You think they won't try? If they try, you think they won't succeed in becoming better individual and/or team defenders?
- The logic of almost every personnel move made since the 2021 trade deadline has been to improve defensively. Mitchell and Queta (2 of 4 Naismith DPOY candidates). Len, Thompson. Bringing Holmes, Davis, Harkless, and Jones back. Christie. Longabardi.
- Again: the post-ASG Kings were 23rd-ranked, not "historically bad." Even another modest improvement from 113.8 to, say, 112 even, will probably put them right in the middle of the rankings (~15-17 last year). They went from 119.1 to 113.8, a MUCH larger jump (5.3 pts per 100 possessions vs. 1.8 per 100), between the first and second halves of the season last year. Put differently: defensive improvement only one-third as great as the one they actually made in the second half of last year will put them right in the middle of the pack. Literally, the only personnel change from last season that militates against that is the loss of Wright - who happens to have been replaced by an even better defender in Mitchell. Such a modest improvement isn't just plausible, it's very likely.
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