Bajaden's crazy, makes no sense, one and only, 2021 mock draft:

[sactowndog]

This whole free throw % = three point % narrative is incredibly reductive. It can be a predictor of overall shooting aptitude or it can just be a predictor of how well a player converts from the free throw line. It's not like there's a 1:1 correlation there. It also ignores all sorts of interesting data such as where the player is shooting from, whether they created the shot themselves or were assisted, is the trend going up or down, does the shooting form look easily repeatable or will it need to be changed, etc. In this case there's also the fact that Garuba is a year younger and plays in a completely different professional league for a team that is trying to win a championship. Of course his role in the offense is smaller than a second year college player. In his last 10 games Garuba was 10 for 24 from three (41.6%) and 10 for 11 from the free throw line (90.9%). Sure that's only 10 games but I don't think it's out of line with expectations for a 19 year old to still be improving throughout the course of the season. I would hope that having an analytics driven front office would mean that any and all data is being analyzed not simply whatever buzzworthy stat fits a pre-established narrative.

@Telemachus Garuba started his career with Real Madrid as a guard and he does occasionally handle the ball and displays very good situational awareness in locating and passing to open players from the post and on fast breaks. I'm not trying to say that Wagner can't do these things but you're suggesting that Garuba isn't even in the same league as Wagner as a screen setter, passer, and ballhandler and I see little evidence for any of that. Certainly he doesn't get nearly the same opportunities to handle the ball with the team he has around him but that doesn't mean he lacks the ability to do so.

analytics has shown free throw percentage is a better predictor of future 3 point shooting than 3 point percentage. You are free to say you disagree but it doesn’t change the analytics. No analytics person would look at a sample size as small as 10 games.

btw.... I’m not down on Garuba at all. He is the type of player I envisioned drafting had we made the Barnes trade with Boston. Instead of trading our pick for a win now player I would prefer to trade Barnes or Buddy for a pick where we could get Garuba to pair with Wagner. That would give us a great pair of wing defenders.

 

[whozit]

analytics has shown free throw percentage is a better predictor of future 3 point shooting than 3 point percentage. You are free to say you disagree but it doesn’t change the analytics. No analytics person would look at a sample size as small as 10 games.

btw.... I’m not down on Garuba at all. He is the type of player I envisioned drafting had we made the Barnes trade with Boston. Instead of trading our pick for a win now player I would prefer to trade Barnes or Buddy for a pick where we could get Garuba to pair with Wagner. That would give us a great pair of wing defenders.

Depending on the details, and the devil is in the details, I wouldn't mind getting that second pick. Have to think that is being looked at given the range of players being tried out.

 

[Telemachus]

This whole free throw % = three point % narrative is incredibly reductive. It can be a predictor of overall shooting aptitude or it can just be a predictor of how well a player converts from the free throw line. It's not like there's a 1:1 correlation there. It also ignores all sorts of interesting data such as where the player is shooting from, whether they created the shot themselves or were assisted, is the trend going up or down, does the shooting form look easily repeatable or will it need to be changed, etc. In this case there's also the fact that Garuba is a year younger and plays in a completely different professional league for a team that is trying to win a championship. Of course his role in the offense is smaller than a second year college player. In his last 10 games Garuba was 10 for 24 from three (41.6%) and 10 for 11 from the free throw line (90.9%). Sure that's only 10 games but I don't think it's out of line with expectations for a 19 year old to still be improving throughout the course of the season. I would hope that having an analytics driven front office would mean that any and all data is being analyzed not simply whatever buzzworthy stat fits a pre-established narrative.

@Telemachus Garuba started his career with Real Madrid as a guard and he does occasionally handle the ball and displays very good situational awareness in locating and passing to open players from the post and on fast breaks. I'm not trying to say that Wagner can't do these things but you're suggesting that Garuba isn't even in the same league as Wagner as a screen setter, passer, and ballhandler and I see little evidence for any of that. Certainly he doesn't get nearly the same opportunities to handle the ball with the team he has around him but that doesn't mean he lacks the ability to do so.

From what I have seen from both of them, Wagner is a better ball handler and passer, they both set good screens. The biggest difference for me is Wagner's overall awareness on offense. He is really good at knowing where to move on offense to find a hole or create space. He just has a knack for knowing where to be on both sides of the ball. There is no doubt that Garuba is probably the best defensive player in this draft. I simply have questions about how he will play on offense. I think he will figure it out, but it might take a few years.

 

[SacTownKid]

I think that's a fair assessment about Wagner and Jalen Johnson but then since we're looking at Wagner as a stretch 4 with some flexibility to switch on the perimeter defensively and the hope that his inconsistent outside jumper gets better with more reps, why wouldn't you take Usman Garuba instead? He's going to fill the same role and his defense to me looks like it's going to have a more immediate impact. Maybe he has a little further to go offensively but if Wagner is going to be considered a shooter (34.3% on 102 attempts in his most recent NCAA season) shouldn't Garuba be in the same ballpark (33.8% on 71 attempts in his most recent Liga ACB season)?

He doesn't have super articulate answers in his film session video and it surely doesn't help that he plays in Spain and is still working on his English, but just watching the clips here it's obvious that he knows exactly what he's doing on the court. He might not be able to express it verbally but nobody breaks up a play multiple times in the same possession through dumb luck. His reaction time going from defending at the three point line to contesting in the paint is phenomenal. I like his game tape better on defense than Scottie Barnes and everyone has Barnes moving up the board right now and Garuba moving down. I think the only reason he's not being talked about as a lock for the top 10 is that Real Madrid is ultra-conservative about limiting minutes for their younger players.

They seem to be entirely different players. I think Garuba will be best as an undersized C. Wagner has legit wing skills, Garuba, nah, not really. Also defensively I think Wagner is much more capable against wing players. Garuba tends to get beat then rely on recovery more.

 

[midtowner]

Wagner could really help with our half court execution. It’s been a problem for a while now.

 

[Telemachus]

They seem to be entirely different players. I think Garuba will be best as an undersized C. Wagner has legit wing skills, Garuba, nah, not really. Also defensively I think Wagner is much more capable against wing players. Garuba tends to get beat then rely on recovery more.

I wish someone would list some updated measurements for Wagner. He was 6'7 at the start of his Freshman year and 6'9 by the end. Many felt that he was growing this year as well. I really wish he had been measured at the combine.

 

[The_Jamal]

They seem to be entirely different players. I think Garuba will be best as an undersized C. Wagner has legit wing skills, Garuba, nah, not really. Also defensively I think Wagner is much more capable against wing players. Garuba tends to get beat then rely on recovery more.

I think you project Garuba as a Draymond-type ceiling defender. Will excel as a small-ball C that shuts down the PnR/rim protects and can hedge the perimeter. But I highly doubt he ever just straight up becomes an on-ball wing defender

 

[hrdboild]

I think you project Garuba as a Draymond-type ceiling defender. Will excel as a small-ball C that shuts down the PnR/rim protects and can hedge the perimeter. But I highly doubt he ever just straight up becomes an on-ball wing defender

I think the same will be true of Franz Wagner though. If you put him on an island on the perimeter he's going to get blown by. Moses Moody would be a much better fit for us as a wing defender but I also think we need better defenders on our roster at the guard position, on the wing, and at the center/PF position so why limit ourselves to only looking at one of those areas?

 

[The_Jamal]

I think the same will be true of Franz Wagner though. If you put him on an island on the perimeter he's going to get blown by. Moses Moody would be a much better fit for us as a wing defender but I also think we need better defenders on our roster at the guard position, on the wing, and at the center/PF position so why limit ourselves to only looking at one of those areas?

eh I disagree. Plenty of tape on Wagner just locking down on the perimeter and being a disruptive off-ball defender as well. I think his strength is going to be as an off-ball defender, being in the right spot and offering help side. But I don't have many concerns about his on-ball defense and I'm confident he's going to be a versatile switchable defender.

I have Moody just ahead of Wagner because I think his potential ability to defend up 1-3 is (probably?) more important than the 3/4 flex wing defender. And I like Moody's on-ball offense/shooting potential more than what Wagner has shown.

Honestly though, I'd be thrilled with either guy. They're by far my favorite 2 prospects to take at 9 and I think both fit perfectly next to Fox/Hali and both play incredibly valuable archetypes that's rare in the NBA.

 

[ESP47]

eh I disagree. Plenty of tape on Wagner just locking down on the perimeter and being a disruptive off-ball defender as well. I think his strength is going to be as an off-ball defender, being in the right spot and offering help side. But I don't have many concerns about his on-ball defense and I'm confident he's going to be a versatile switchable defender.

I have Moody just ahead of Wagner because I think his potential ability to defend up 1-3 is (probably?) more important than the 3/4 flex wing defender. And I like Moody's on-ball offense/shooting potential more than what Wagner has shown.

Honestly though, I'd be thrilled with either guy. They're by far my favorite 2 prospects to take at 9 and I think both fit perfectly next to Fox/Hali and both play incredibly valuable archetypes that's rare in the NBA.

I halfway agree with both of you guys. I think Wagner's perimeter defense transferring to the NBA is a legitimate thing to question. In any highlight reel, you'll find them showing guys locking up other guys on the perimeter but we have to take into consideration who they're locking up. It could be some player who is going to be an accountant next year so the skill shown in the highlight may not transfer to the NBA due to the difference in talent. Sometimes these highlights that look very impressive probably wouldn't look so impressive if they were covering a starting NBA wing.

When I watch tape of both players, I think Moody's defense has an extremely high probability of transferring to the NBA where Wagner's looks 50/50 to me. If Wagner's does transfer then I think he's going to be the better defender than Moody due to his size but that's a bit of an if.

Offensively is more of a crap shoot. Moody could wind up being the 2nd or 3rd option or he could wind up having the same touch as Justin James around the rim. Wagner seems like he's going to be more efficient and the difference in his AST/TO ratio from his freshman to sophomore year is very interesting but he could also be a very low output offensive player who would then need his defense to fully translate in order to be a starter at the next level.

 

[funkykingston]

I halfway agree with both of you guys. I think Wagner's perimeter defense transferring to the NBA is a legitimate thing to question. In any highlight reel, you'll find them showing guys locking up other guys on the perimeter but we have to take into consideration who they're locking up. It could be some player who is going to be an accountant next year so the skill shown in the highlight may not transfer to the NBA due to the difference in talent. Sometimes these highlights that look very impressive probably wouldn't look so impressive if they were covering a starting NBA wing.

When I watch tape of both players, I think Moody's defense has an extremely high probability of transferring to the NBA where Wagner's looks 50/50 to me. If Wagner's does transfer then I think he's going to be the better defender than Moody due to his size but that's a bit of an if.

Offensively is more of a crap shoot. Moody could wind up being the 2nd or 3rd option or he could wind up having the same touch as Justin James around the rim. Wagner seems like he's going to be more efficient and the difference in his AST/TO ratio from his freshman to sophomore year is very interesting but he could also be a very low output offensive player who would then need his defense to fully translate in order to be a starter at the next level.

Wagner outplayed Scottie Barnes in the NCAA tournament when Michigan crushed Florida State. Wagner was the primary defender on Barnes most of the time and Barnes was 4-11 with 8 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist and 3 TOs. Wagner went 4-9 with 13 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists and 0 TOs.

Wagner does all the little things on defense. He gets skinny around screens and almost always gets that lead foot over, he slides with good balance and footwork, he turns his hips, he digs when he's one defender away without losing sight of his man, he contests outside the arc, gets vertical at the basket and generally tries to force midrange shots where he uses his length to at least get a hand up. For a lack of a better word, he's just solid. And he has pretty good lateral mobility for a player his size. He reminds me a bit of Andrei Kirlilenko though he's not quite as long or as good a shotblocker.

I get the Joe Ingles and Kyle Anderson comps too, but none are an exact fit. But going back and watching more of Wagner I'm good with him if he's the pick. In my mind the Kings really need to hit another homerun to really build on what they have with Fox and Hali and Wagner (and very likely Moody as well) isn't that but I think he'd be a very good addition who will improve team defense, keep the ball moving on offense and be a great role player.

 

[ESP47]

Wagner outplayed Scottie Barnes in the NCAA tournament when Michigan crushed Florida State. Wagner was the primary defender on Barnes most of the time and Barnes was 4-11 with 8 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist and 3 TOs. Wagner went 4-9 with 13 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists and 0 TOs.

Wagner does all the little things on defense. He gets skinny around screens and almost always gets that lead foot over, he slides with good balance and footwork, he turns his hips, he digs when he's one defender away without losing sight of his man, he contests outside the arc, gets vertical at the basket and generally tries to force midrange shots where he uses his length to at least get a hand up. For a lack of a better word, he's just solid. And he has pretty good lateral mobility for a player his size. He reminds me a bit of Andrei Kirlilenko though he's not quite as long or as good a shotblocker.

I get the Joe Ingles and Kyle Anderson comps too, but none are an exact fit. But going back and watching more of Wagner I'm good with him if he's the pick. In my mind the Kings really need to hit another homerun to really build on what they have with Fox and Hali and Wagner (and very likely Moody as well) isn't that but I think he'd be a very good addition who will improve team defense, keep the ball moving on offense and be a great role player.

He was impressive that game but we have to remember that Barnes doesn't have good explosion when it comes to driving and jumping so he would be a much easier cover than a lot of wings in the NBA. I'm just not sold that his defense on Barnes would translate to good defense at the next level.

I agree with your defensive assessment but I think he's going to struggle with screens in the NBA more than you may think. He was able to recover and defend in college but in the NBA a lot of those picks he got caught on would have wound up being easy points or open shots for NBA players. On the other hand he also boxes out like a pro and essentially looks like the smartest guy on the court any time he's out there. He's basically always doing the right thing but I'm not sold that him knowing how to do the right thing and ability to do the right thing are going to have the same effectiveness in the NBA.

I'd say somewhere between Ingles and Anderson is a pretty good comp if he develops.

 

[SacTownKid]

eh I disagree. Plenty of tape on Wagner just locking down on the perimeter and being a disruptive off-ball defender as well. I think his strength is going to be as an off-ball defender, being in the right spot and offering help side. But I don't have many concerns about his on-ball defense and I'm confident he's going to be a versatile switchable defender.

I have Moody just ahead of Wagner because I think his potential ability to defend up 1-3 is (probably?) more important than the 3/4 flex wing defender. And I like Moody's on-ball offense/shooting potential more than what Wagner has shown.

Honestly though, I'd be thrilled with either guy. They're by far my favorite 2 prospects to take at 9 and I think both fit perfectly next to Fox/Hali and both play incredibly valuable archetypes that's rare in the NBA.

One of the other things about Moody is his fit next to Barnes. I think Barnes is pretty much a full time PF at this point so adding Moody would allow that spot to be his. Wagner and Barnes can certainly work together but in different ways. Maybe some ways that are better, but Moody's ability to create his own offense off of the kick out with a dribble drive pull up is the clincher to me. Yeah, at this point I'm down with either. Moody 1, Wagner 1A.

 

[The_Jamal]

One of the other things about Moody is his fit next to Barnes. I think Barnes is pretty much a full time PF at this point so adding Moody would allow that spot to be his. Wagner and Barnes can certainly work together but in different ways. Maybe some ways that are better, but Moody's ability to create his own offense off of the kick out with a dribble drive pull up is the clincher to me. Yeah, at this point I'm down with either. Moody 1, Wagner 1A.

Yeah I think that's a major major benefit to adding either guy. Kicking Barnes to full-time PF is almost like adding another impact piece with how much better he plays at that slot. He was a major reason the Kings death lineup was so good because of his spacing and ability to not get taken advantage of on defense in the post. Honestly, post defense might be his best defensive attribute right now.

 

[sactowndog]

I halfway agree with both of you guys. I think Wagner's perimeter defense transferring to the NBA is a legitimate thing to question. In any highlight reel, you'll find them showing guys locking up other guys on the perimeter but we have to take into consideration who they're locking up. It could be some player who is going to be an accountant next year so the skill shown in the highlight may not transfer to the NBA due to the difference in talent. Sometimes these highlights that look very impressive probably wouldn't look so impressive if they were covering a starting NBA wing.

When I watch tape of both players, I think Moody's defense has an extremely high probability of transferring to the NBA where Wagner's looks 50/50 to me. If Wagner's does transfer then I think he's going to be the better defender than Moody due to his size but that's a bit of an if.

Offensively is more of a crap shoot. Moody could wind up being the 2nd or 3rd option or he could wind up having the same touch as Justin James around the rim. Wagner seems like he's going to be more efficient and the difference in his AST/TO ratio from his freshman to sophomore year is very interesting but he could also be a very low output offensive player who would then need his defense to fully translate in order to be a starter at the next level.

Except their is tape of Wagner locking down Barnes and Cam Thomas. The kid uses smarts, anticipation, lateral quickness and good hips. I think he will be fine.

 

[ESP47]

Except their is tape of Wagner locking down Barnes and Cam Thomas. The kid uses smarts, anticipation, lateral quickness and good hips. I think he will be fine.

Locking down Cam Thomas is more impressive to me.

 

[hrdboild]

Except their is tape of Wagner locking down Barnes and Cam Thomas. The kid uses smarts, anticipation, lateral quickness and good hips. I think he will be fine.

Scottie Barnes is going to be an offensive liability in the NBA until he learns to shoot -- he's not getting drafted in the top 10 for his offense. Actually, I wouldn't draft him in the top 10 myself but it does seem like NBA teams value him in that range, Cam Thomas is projected to be picked in the 20s and might be a starter in the NBA if he's lucky. He also faced Michigan once, played all 40 minutes, and scored 30 points in that game. That's getting locked down? I feel like we have these kinds of discussions every year. The NCAA is not the NBA. Some players look really good in college but can't stick on an NBA roster. I'm not really interested in how well prospects play against college competition, I'm interested in how they fit into the NBA and the only way to figure that out is to watch the games and use your imagination. The problem with predictive models is that there is no such thing as 100% accuracy. An average is just an average. That doesn't tell you if the one player you are drafting with your only pick in the first round who you are staking your future on actually fits the model or not. When most GMs really only get a handful of shots at this, the statistical noise is too loud to rely on predictive models. I'd rather that type of analysis be applied to game planning and free agency where you get a lot more bites at the apple.

I'm struggling to find words that adequately describe why I'm less enthusiastic about Wagner's defense than the consensus but I'll give it another try. From the tape I'm seeing he looks really good defensively in the high post and below because he anticipates well and understands how to create leverage. I can even see him defending most NBA centers well since there's really only a few left who know how to use their strength in the post and he'll be quicker than them anywhere else on the floor. Out on the perimeter I see him reacting to ballhandlers instead of pressuring them and while that works against players who are a little shaky with their handle, who aren't skilled enough to create space and shoot over defenders, or who don't really have a good idea yet about where they want to get to, crafty ballhandlers will use his aggressiveness against him. He looks competent as a team defender but I don't see him being a stopper unless he learns to slow down, move his feet less and take something away from the ballhandler instead of trying to always beat them to a spot. That's my take on it. And that's no insult to Wagner either. I don't think any coach has ever complained about their players trying too hard on defense. NBA scorers make their living scoring on active and engaged defenders though. It takes a rare breed of player to actually get into them and make them uncomfortable. I don't know how you learn it but I do know that it's not just a matter of effort and size.

Which leaves Wagner's individual defense in the same place as his shooting -- it could theoretically be good in the NBA or he could never improve much beyond where he is now. There are players in this draft who have skills that will translate right now and be effective in the NBA. That makes this pretty simple for me. I'd pick Wagner starting around 14 or so but I think he would be a reach at #9. If we do end up making some kind of trade package to clear salary and/or obtain veterans maybe we do end up picking in that range though in which case I wouldn't mind the Wagner pick.

 

[midtowner]

One thing I’ve learned in life, it is very hard to predict the future.

Trying to predict what teenagers are going to do is even harder.

But it sure is fun trying.

 

[whozit]

One thing I’ve learned in life, it is very hard to predict the future.

Trying to predict what teenagers are going to do is even harder.

But it sure is fun trying.

Predicting what teenagers are going to do is fun? I would hate to see what you do for an encore.