Bajaden's crazy, makes no sense, one and only, 2021 mock draft:

[dude12]

You can’t blame the owner or GM specifically for shopping the pick for someone who can help them win now………..we have no idea who they are shopping the pick for. If they are confidant in Hali becoming the 2nd or 3rd cog to go with Fox, their guard rotation depth is good, need to add wings and a defensive big. Does the pick bring back a guy that can make it happen for us. Maybe their are other deals in place.

The pick at 9 is not going to bring us a star.

 

[sactowndog]

You can’t blame the owner or GM specifically for shopping the pick for someone who can help them win now………..we have no idea who they are shopping the pick for. If they are confidant in Hali becoming the 2nd or 3rd cog to go with Fox, their guard rotation depth is good, need to add wings and a defensive big. Does the pick bring back a guy that can make it happen for us. Maybe their are other deals in place.

The pick at 9 is not going to bring us a star.

unless you can tell the future you can’t be certain of any players future track. But we can be certain 9 isn’t going to get us a star in trade. We can also be certain it will shorten our timeline which given our division is a bad idea.

 

[The_Jamal]

I think people look at Wagner see a white guy and think un-athletic. But what I have seen from the scouting reports Wagner appears to have 3 attributes that make for a good defensive players.
1) he has good lateral quickness
2) he has good hips with the ability to flip his hips.
3) great mind

watch how he breaks down his own plays here. You can tell he is a high IQ player that will fit really well with Haliburton.

Unfortunately, he's getting the same typical bias a lot of people do. He's a white guy from Michigan so he's "Stauskas". Could not be any more different a player than him.

 

[Entity]

No Joshua Primo? I'm thinking 1st round all the way

 

[ESP47]

i'm on a wagner's bandwagon for a past 2-3 months, dude is exactly type of player that we need, playing on position that we need.

only question mark is his left hand, somebody wrote that michigan adjusted their sets so that he can finish mostly with his right hand...
also he's doing that down swing with the ball in catch and shoot situations, but that's far from some red flag.


its hard to neglect his IQ, defence and outside shooting

His outside shooting is a bit of a concern. 31% and 34% in his 2 years in college. He has a good FT% which bodes well but his outside shot is weak for a guy who projects to be a 3&D type wing. I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles with his outside shot for the first year or two.

 

[dude12]

His outside shooting is a bit of a concern. 31% and 34% in his 2 years in college. He has a good FT% which bodes well but his outside shot is weak for a guy who projects to be a 3&D type wing. I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles with his outside shot for the first year or two.

Yeah…..this notion that some guys don’t think he’s worthy because he’s a white guy from Michigan is a little bit much. Based on the numbers you posted AND watching him in the tourney, there’s a legit question if he’s going to be as effective on defense as people are anticipating. Pro game is faster/quicker. He wouldn’t be my first choice

 

[funkykingston]

His outside shooting is a bit of a concern. 31% and 34% in his 2 years in college. He has a good FT% which bodes well but his outside shot is weak for a guy who projects to be a 3&D type wing. I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles with his outside shot for the first year or two.

His shot motion needs some work. He has an exaggerated dip off the catch which makes it hard for him to get it off quickly. It also causes him to hesitate when he doesn't think he has time to get it off cleanly or rush it.

When he has time, sets his feet, and shoots with confidence his shot looks good.

Whether he's able to clean up/speed up his mechanics could go a long way toward determining the trajectory of his NBA career.

 

[bajaden]

No Joshua Primo? I'm thinking 1st round all the way

I could see a team taking a flier on Primo at the bottom of the first rd, but most likely he'll go at the top of the 2nd. I believe he's the youngest player in the draft, and in my humble opinion, he's a couple of years away from making any major contributions. However, he has a ton of upside. He's the kind of player a team like the Spurs would usually grab down at 25 or 26 and develop.

 

[bajaden]

His shot motion needs some work. He has an exaggerated dip off the catch which makes it hard for him to get it off quickly. It also causes him to hesitate when he doesn't think he has time to get it off cleanly or rush it.

When he has time, sets his feet, and shoots with confidence his shot looks good.

Whether he's able to clean up/speed up his mechanics could go a long way toward determining the trajectory of his NBA career.

Obviously, just from watching the video, and all the games I saw him play, he's a very smart kid who knows what he needs to work on. His outside shot being one of them. His full time job will be to work on his game, and he'll have all the time in the world to do just that. No classes to go to and no gym and practice restrictions. All the Kings need to do is hand him over to Rico Hines.

Someone questioned how his defense will transfer to the NBA. Well I'm sure there will be some adjustments, but that's true of every good defender coming out of college, and he was a good defender. I think the advantage Wagner has is that his defense doesn't just rely on pure athleticism. He's smart and studies his opponent. He understands the team defense concept. He also has good instincts, which is something that can't be taught. His ability to read plays is what separates him from the crowd.

I'll be happy with either Wagner or Moody. I'm hopeful that at least one of them will be available when we pick.

 

[sactowndog]

His outside shooting is a bit of a concern. 31% and 34% in his 2 years in college. He has a good FT% which bodes well but his outside shot is weak for a guy who projects to be a 3&D type wing. I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles with his outside shot for the first year or two.

yeah two thoughts. He grew between his freshman and sophomore year which would affect the trajectory of his shot. Once he stops growing that should be something that he dials in.

analytically it has been shown that free throw percentage is more predictive of future 3 point shooting than college 3 point percentages.

 

[hrdboild]

I think people look at Wagner see a white guy and think un-athletic. But what I have seen from the scouting reports Wagner appears to have 3 attributes that make for a good defensive players.
1) he has good lateral quickness
2) he has good hips with the ability to flip his hips.
3) great mind

watch how he breaks down his own plays here. You can tell he is a high IQ player that will fit really well with Haliburton.

The only real challenge I see with Wagner in adjusting to the NBA defensively is that he does move well for his size but he is 6'10" and the league overall has gone in the direction of smaller quicker players and perimeter focused offenses. There's a lot of pre-draft talk about wingspans and standing reach and positional flexibility but at some point the laws of physics come into play too. Longer, taller players can cover more space but shorter players have lower centers of gravity which make it easier for them to stop, start, and change direction. I know I'm in the minority on this issue but I think way too much attention is being paid to physical dimensions and this outdated theory that bigger is always better. I think a shorter player is going to do better in general at getting around screens and sticking close to ballhandlers. Wagner himself said that he has to play a step back to keep smaller players in front of him and sure he's got more reach but using your arms to compensate for slower footspeed is how you get called for fouls.

I don't think Wagner is unathletic, I just think he's big for a modern wing and that additional size comes with it's own set of physical limitations which could limit his defensive potential against most of the guards and wings in the league. I still think he'll be a good defender in the NBA but he's probably best viewed as a potential stretch 4 with some playmaking skills who will be an asset in team defense schemes but not a standout individual defender against most matchups. Combine that with the questions about his outside shooting and I don't understand why people are freaking out about getting him at #9. He's a late lotto talent with a relatively high floor in my opinion but not a guy to stake your future on. If we're hoping to land another Tyrese Haliburton level talent I really don't think Wagner is the guy.

 

[funkykingston]

Obviously, just from watching the video, and all the games I saw him play, he's a very smart kid who knows what he needs to work on. His outside shot being one of them. His full time job will be to work on his game, and he'll have all the time in the world to do just that. No classes to go to and no gym and practice restrictions. All the Kings need to do is hand him over to Rico Hines.

Someone questioned how his defense will transfer to the NBA. Well I'm sure there will be some adjustments, but that's true of every good defender coming out of college, and he was a good defender. I think the advantage Wagner has is that his defense doesn't just rely on pure athleticism. He's smart and studies his opponent. He understands the team defense concept. He also has good instincts, which is something that can't be taught. His ability to read plays is what separates him from the crowd.

I'll be happy with either Wagner or Moody. I'm hopeful that at least one of them will be available when we pick.

Knowing you have to work on your shot and actually fixing it are two different things. I have no doubt that Wagner will put in the work, but it's still a valid question as to whether it will translate to the court. There are few guys (reigning Finals MVP among them) that have tried to adjust their shot mechanics in the NBA and become worse shooters. If I had to bet, I'd say Wagner improves his shot in the NBA, but it's not guaranteed.

I don't have questions about his defense beyond whether he'll be able to add strength while not losing lateral quickness so that he can guard bigger wings/PFs as well as 2's & 3's. He plays smart, reads the floor, navigates screens well for a kid his size and uses his length well to contest without fouling. Thybulle is an absolute anomaly when it comes to blocking jump shots. If you watch Wagner, that's not what he's going for. He's trying to prevent easy shots from three or at the rim and force guys into midrange jumpers which he does a good job of contesting. It's just smart basketball.

As for who will be available when the Kings pick, I think there are 3 players that definitely won't be on the board at #9 in Cunningham, Mobley, and Green. The other two that I'd be shocked if they were on the board are Suggs and Barnes.

That means three of the following players (in no particular order) will be on the board when the Kings pick, assuming they keep the 9th pick:

• Sengun
• Moody
• Wagner
• Kuminga
• Bouknight
• Jalen Johnson

Others may want to throw in guys like Mitchell, Giddey, Kai Jones, or Zaire Williams or replace guys on my list with one or more of them. But my point is if you make your own list of your top six targets after the Cunningham, Mobley, Green, and Barnes are gone I think you'd be happy choosing between 3 of the 6 guys that will still be on the board at #9.

I like the fit and potential of Sengun and Johnson but both have significant questions (Sengun about his size and ability to defend/lateral quickness and Johnson about his motivation, temperment, shot and turnovers). I like the plug and play ability of Moody and I like Wagner's versatility and size at the wing but with both of those you have to worry that you're missing out on higher upside guys to grab a kid with a higher floor and a solid fit with Fox and Hali. And I really like Bouknight's scoring ability but I worry about his fit when the backcourt is the only current sure thing on the Kings roster.

But again, make your list of six guys and picture any three of them being gone. Would you be happy picking between the three that are left? I would.

It's why I don't like the idea of the Kings trading the pick for a veteran. Trading up? That's a different story. I know Cleveland is getting offers for #3. Would they take Buddy, Marvin, and #9 for #3 and Kevin Love's contract? I'd do that in a heartbeat to get Mobley.

 

[krylia sovetov]

of course there is always the chance we could trade the pick for some short term attempt to make the play-offs. Tough when our owner has the shortest perspective in sports.

per O’Conner at the Ringer:


SACRAMENTO KINGS
League sources say the Kings have shopped this pick for players who can help them win now.

huh, that hurts...

i'm afraid that vivek will never learn his lesson. retroactively i found out about his brilliant 4+1 tactics, stauskas drafting council and some other stuff, dude has huge vanity issues. and that vanity is constantly reminding him that he didn't reach promised land of playoffs.

trading pick in this draft class is pure stupidity. acquiring veterans with walton on the bench is even worse.



he's out problem number 1


only reason why i wanted us to reach the playoffs is his ego will finally get fed, so that GM and rest of a FO can continue with building the team.
trading this pick will set us back again.

 

[ESP47]

Yeah…..this notion that some guys don’t think he’s worthy because he’s a white guy from Michigan is a little bit much. Based on the numbers you posted AND watching him in the tourney, there’s a legit question if he’s going to be as effective on defense as people are anticipating. Pro game is faster/quicker. He wouldn’t be my first choice

I'm actually more worried about whether his defense will translate than his shot. Between him and Moody, I'd say that Moody's defense will translate at much higher odds but I have Wagner with the higher ceiling between the two defensively.

He has really good fundamentals where he will hedge against a player driving baseline, forcing the offensive player to drive toward the middle. He's able to side step so quickly that he winds up ahead of the offensive player, despite reacting after the move was made. He won't be able to do this against the Morants and Lillards of the world but he should be able to stop most wings from driving. He's also very good at not being handsy.

The two negatives I see are he's a bit jumpy and reactionary on defense. You know those "ohhh!" moments where an offensive player will juke a defender out of his shoes and either blow past him or shoot the jumper, making him look silly? That may happen a lot to Wagner if he's 1 on 1 with quicker players. He reacts pretty hard to moves and gets saved by his ability to adjust, his length and the lack of burst from many college players. How will that fare in the NBA? I'm not quite sure but I can see him jumping out of position quite a bit at his worse and it not really being a big deal at his best. He also seems to struggle with screens a bit. Many of his highlights will show him getting stuck bad on a screen and adjusting and getting the block. That's just simply not going to happen in the NBA very often. It probably seems like I'm being overly picky of his defense but you kind of have to be since his offense doesn't project to be much more than a roleplayer who can move the ball but not really be a point forward type like Ingles.

His IQ is a huge bonus though. He does a lot of things that don't show up in the box score. He boxes out like a pro and does a lot of little things like disrupt players that are trying to get position in the post before they get the ball. Things that are hard to notice because we're usually watching the ball but he should do a good job of keeping the Kings from giving up as many offensive boards as they normally do.

I'll take the higher ceiling guys like Moody and Johnson over him but if they're both off the board and no one obvious has fallen, I'd be okay with taking him over Sengun, Kispert or any of the non efficient guys that are just a straight up roll of the dice.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

of course there is always the chance we could trade the pick for some short term attempt to make the play-offs. Tough when our owner has the shortest perspective in sports.

per O’Conner at the Ringer:


SACRAMENTO KINGS
League sources say the Kings have shopped this pick for players who can help them win now.

huh, that hurts...

trading pick in this draft class is pure stupidity.

But league sources have also said we promised Wagner at #9, and it's pretty difficult for both of these to be true.

I think we put way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way too much stock in media rumors, particularly this time of year. Clicks rule, and websites will print anything they can justify printing to get clicks.

If the media report doesn't say that a trade has happened, it's white noise. We really should save our reactions for things that have happened and not waste them on rumors, most of which don't come true.

 

[Telemachus]

But league sources have also said we promised Wagner at #9, and it's pretty difficult for both of these to be true.

I think we put way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way too much stock in media rumors, particularly this time of year. Clicks rule, and websites will print anything they can justify printing to get clicks.

If the media report doesn't say that a trade has happened, it's white noise. We really should save our reactions for things that have happened and not waste them on rumors, most of which don't come true.

Over the past five years, it seems like the Kings have been mentioned in rumors for almost every major FA and/or big name on the trading block. I learned to ignor them a long time ago.

 

[midtowner]

I'm actually more worried about whether his defense will translate than his shot. Between him and Moody, I'd say that Moody's defense will translate at much higher odds but I have Wagner with the higher ceiling between the two defensively.

He has really good fundamentals where he will hedge against a player driving baseline, forcing the offensive player to drive toward the middle. He's able to side step so quickly that he winds up ahead of the offensive player, despite reacting after the move was made. He won't be able to do this against the Morants and Lillards of the world but he should be able to stop most wings from driving. He's also very good at not being handsy.

The two negatives I see are he's a bit jumpy and reactionary on defense. You know those "ohhh!" moments where an offensive player will juke a defender out of his shoes and either blow past him or shoot the jumper, making him look silly? That may happen a lot to Wagner if he's 1 on 1 with quicker players. He reacts pretty hard to moves and gets saved by his ability to adjust, his length and the lack of burst from many college players. How will that fare in the NBA? I'm not quite sure but I can see him jumping out of position quite a bit at his worse and it not really being a big deal at his best. He also seems to struggle with screens a bit. Many of his highlights will show him getting stuck bad on a screen and adjusting and getting the block. That's just simply not going to happen in the NBA very often. It probably seems like I'm being overly picky of his defense but you kind of have to be since his offense doesn't project to be much more than a roleplayer who can move the ball but not really be a point forward type like Ingles.

His IQ is a huge bonus though. He does a lot of things that don't show up in the box score. He boxes out like a pro and does a lot of little things like disrupt players that are trying to get position in the post before they get the ball. Things that are hard to notice because we're usually watching the ball but he should do a good job of keeping the Kings from giving up as many offensive boards as they normally do.

I'll take the higher ceiling guys like Moody and Johnson over him but if they're both off the board and no one obvious has fallen, I'd be okay with taking him over Sengun, Kispert or any of the non efficient guys that are just a straight up roll of the dice.

There is some point forward potential with Wagner. He’s pretty good at running the pick and roll. And his pocket passing ability is legit. But I would agree that he’s not a primary ball handler.

 

[Turgenev]

But league sources have also said we promised Wagner at #9, and it's pretty difficult for both of these to be true.

I think we put way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way way too much stock in media rumors, particularly this time of year. Clicks rule, and websites will print anything they can justify printing to get clicks.

If the media report doesn't say that a trade has happened, it's white noise. We really should save our reactions for things that have happened and not waste them on rumors, most of which don't come true.

We have also worked out a large number of potential draftees. Doesn't mean we won't trade the pick - but does indicate that the front office has been preparing appropriately for the draft.

 

[bajaden]

Knowing you have to work on your shot and actually fixing it are two different things. I have no doubt that Wagner will put in the work, but it's still a valid question as to whether it will translate to the court. There are few guys (reigning Finals MVP among them) that have tried to adjust their shot mechanics in the NBA and become worse shooters. If I had to bet, I'd say Wagner improves his shot in the NBA, but it's not guaranteed.

I don't have questions about his defense beyond whether he'll be able to add strength while not losing lateral quickness so that he can guard bigger wings/PFs as well as 2's & 3's. He plays smart, reads the floor, navigates screens well for a kid his size and uses his length well to contest without fouling. Thybulle is an absolute anomaly when it comes to blocking jump shots. If you watch Wagner, that's not what he's going for. He's trying to prevent easy shots from three or at the rim and force guys into midrange jumpers which he does a good job of contesting. It's just smart basketball.

As for who will be available when the Kings pick, I think there are 3 players that definitely won't be on the board at #9 in Cunningham, Mobley, and Green. The other two that I'd be shocked if they were on the board are Suggs and Barnes.

That means three of the following players (in no particular order) will be on the board when the Kings pick, assuming they keep the 9th pick:

• Sengun
• Moody
• Wagner
• Kuminga
• Bouknight
• Jalen Johnson

Others may want to throw in guys like Mitchell, Giddey, Kai Jones, or Zaire Williams or replace guys on my list with one or more of them. But my point is if you make your own list of your top six targets after the Cunningham, Mobley, Green, and Barnes are gone I think you'd be happy choosing between 3 of the 6 guys that will still be on the board at #9.

I like the fit and potential of Sengun and Johnson but both have significant questions (Sengun about his size and ability to defend/lateral quickness and Johnson about his motivation, temperment, shot and turnovers). I like the plug and play ability of Moody and I like Wagner's versatility and size at the wing but with both of those you have to worry that you're missing out on higher upside guys to grab a kid with a higher floor and a solid fit with Fox and Hali. And I really like Bouknight's scoring ability but I worry about his fit when the backcourt is the only current sure thing on the Kings roster.

But again, make your list of six guys and picture any three of them being gone. Would you be happy picking between the three that are left? I would.

It's why I don't like the idea of the Kings trading the pick for a veteran. Trading up? That's a different story. I know Cleveland is getting offers for #3. Would they take Buddy, Marvin, and #9 for #3 and Kevin Love's contract? I'd do that in a heartbeat to get Mobley.

Ahhh, yeah, if I had the chance to get Mobley, I'd jump all over it. Especially with the unknown future of Holmes, which is looking grim. Hell, I'd even throw in a future first if I can get my hands on Mobley.

 

[SacTownKid]

The only real challenge I see with Wagner in adjusting to the NBA defensively is that he does move well for his size but he is 6'10" and the league overall has gone in the direction of smaller quicker players and perimeter focused offenses. There's a lot of pre-draft talk about wingspans and standing reach and positional flexibility but at some point the laws of physics come into play too. Longer, taller players can cover more space but shorter players have lower centers of gravity which make it easier for them to stop, start, and change direction. I know I'm in the minority on this issue but I think way too much attention is being paid to physical dimensions and this outdated theory that bigger is always better. I think a shorter player is going to do better in general at getting around screens and sticking close to ballhandlers. Wagner himself said that he has to play a step back to keep smaller players in front of him and sure he's got more reach but using your arms to compensate for slower footspeed is how you get called for fouls.

I don't think Wagner is unathletic, I just think he's big for a modern wing and that additional size comes with it's own set of physical limitations which could limit his defensive potential against most of the guards and wings in the league. I still think he'll be a good defender in the NBA but he's probably best viewed as a potential stretch 4 with some playmaking skills who will be an asset in team defense schemes but not a standout individual defender against most matchups. Combine that with the questions about his outside shooting and I don't understand why people are freaking out about getting him at #9. He's a late lotto talent with a relatively high floor in my opinion but not a guy to stake your future on. If we're hoping to land another Tyrese Haliburton level talent I really don't think Wagner is the guy.

Yeah, I see him as more of a switchable 4 than 3 anyway so I think him being able to guard up will alleviate some of the mismatch concerns against smaller players since he'll maintain a degree of versatility. As long as you have some versatility you can game plan around it. He's not nearly on the same level as Scottie Barnes defensively. At least athletically and potential wise but he's smart and solid. Wagner also will fit right in offensively as a role player which I think has tremendous value. Jalen Johnson has PG13 potential IMO but can this team allow him to be that even if he gets an off the dribble jumper down? If Wagner puts up 12 and 6 his glue abilities and overall skillset will improve the team. If Johnson puts up those numbers it will likely be a disappointment.

 

[hrdboild]

If trading up to get Evan Mobley without giving up Fox or Haliburton is even remotely possible that's my new favorite option. Mobley would be the perfect big man to pair with our two stud guards. We'd still need to add wings somehow but that is a young core which gets us in the playoff conversation.

 

[SacTownKid]

If trading up to get Evan Mobley without giving up Fox or Haliburton is even remotely possible that's my new favorite option. Mobley would be the perfect big man to pair with our two stud guards. We'd still need to add wings somehow but that is a young core which gets us in the playoff conversation.

I doubt that it is. This is probably one of those deals where someone is going a few picks back that they want so teams are willing to shuffle a bit. I can't see them trading all the way down to 9 just to dump Kevin Love.

 

[Double-K]

I think people look at Wagner see a white guy and think un-athletic. But what I have seen from the scouting reports Wagner appears to have 3 attributes that make for a good defensive players.
1) he has good lateral quickness
2) he has good hips with the ability to flip his hips.
3) great mind

watch how he breaks down his own plays here. You can tell he is a high IQ player that will fit really well with Haliburton.

Surprised to find myself in agreement with Sactowndog for once...

I think we as fans don't value bball IQ enough. Look at the Hawks this past season where they surrounded the Trae-Collins/Clint PNR sets with smart players like Bogi, Gallo, Huerter etc who can make the correct secondary play from kickout instead of just spreading the floor.

With Wagner's improved playmaking skills from PNR and outside shooting this last year at Michigan I think he's the safest pick at our range. I'd take Wagner over Jalen Jackson. I'd only take a pause if Moody is still around at 9.

 

[sactowndog]

Surprised to find myself in agreement with Sactowndog for once...

I think we as fans don't value bball IQ enough. Look at the Hawks this past season where they surrounded the Trae-Collins/Clint PNR sets with smart players like Bogi, Gallo, Huerter etc who can make the correct secondary play from kickout instead of just spreading the floor.

With Wagner's improved playmaking skills from PNR and outside shooting this last year at Michigan I think he's the safest pick at our range. I'd take Wagner over Jalen Jackson. I'd only take a pause if Moody is still around at 9.

We agree though I think you meant Jalen Johnson

 

[hrdboild]

Yeah, I see him as more of a switchable 4 than 3 anyway so I think him being able to guard up will alleviate some of the mismatch concerns against smaller players since he'll maintain a degree of versatility. As long as you have some versatility you can game plan around it. He's not nearly on the same level as Scottie Barnes defensively. At least athletically and potential wise but he's smart and solid. Wagner also will fit right in offensively as a role player which I think has tremendous value. Jalen Johnson has PG13 potential IMO but can this team allow him to be that even if he gets an off the dribble jumper down? If Wagner puts up 12 and 6 his glue abilities and overall skillset will improve the team. If Johnson puts up those numbers it will likely be a disappointment.

I think that's a fair assessment about Wagner and Jalen Johnson but then since we're looking at Wagner as a stretch 4 with some flexibility to switch on the perimeter defensively and the hope that his inconsistent outside jumper gets better with more reps, why wouldn't you take Usman Garuba instead? He's going to fill the same role and his defense to me looks like it's going to have a more immediate impact. Maybe he has a little further to go offensively but if Wagner is going to be considered a shooter (34.3% on 102 attempts in his most recent NCAA season) shouldn't Garuba be in the same ballpark (33.8% on 71 attempts in his most recent Liga ACB season)?

He doesn't have super articulate answers in his film session video and it surely doesn't help that he plays in Spain and is still working on his English, but just watching the clips here it's obvious that he knows exactly what he's doing on the court. He might not be able to express it verbally but nobody breaks up a play multiple times in the same possession through dumb luck. His reaction time going from defending at the three point line to contesting in the paint is phenomenal. I like his game tape better on defense than Scottie Barnes and everyone has Barnes moving up the board right now and Garuba moving down. I think the only reason he's not being talked about as a lock for the top 10 is that Real Madrid is ultra-conservative about limiting minutes for their younger players.

 

[iowamcnabb]

We agree though I think you meant Jalen Johnson

Speaking of misstating or misspelling prospects names (hello Wagoneer) I heard Jason Jones pronounce James Bouknight "Bou Knight" in an interview recently. It got me wondering if I had been saying his name wrong the whole time but it appears not.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Speaking of misstating or misspelling prospects names (hello Wagoneer) I heard Jason Jones pronounce James Bouknight "Bou Knight" in an interview recently. It got me wondering if I had been saying his name wrong the whole time but it appears not.

If you have a reading club that meets after work, you'd be correct in saying you were going to book night.

 

[sactowndog]

I think that's a fair assessment about Wagner and Jalen Johnson but then since we're looking at Wagner as a stretch 4 with some flexibility to switch on the perimeter defensively and the hope that his inconsistent outside jumper gets better with more reps, why wouldn't you take Usman Garuba instead? He's going to fill the same role and his defense to me looks like it's going to have a more immediate impact. Maybe he has a little further to go offensively but if Wagner is going to be considered a shooter (34.3% on 102 attempts in his most recent NCAA season) shouldn't Garuba be in the same ballpark (33.8% on 71 attempts in his most recent Liga ACB season)?

He doesn't have super articulate answers in his film session video and it surely doesn't help that he plays in Spain and is still working on his English, but just watching the clips here it's obvious that he knows exactly what he's doing on the court. He might not be able to express it verbally but nobody breaks up a play multiple times in the same possession through dumb luck. His reaction time going from defending at the three point line to contesting in the paint is phenomenal. I like his game tape better on defense than Scottie Barnes and everyone has Barnes moving up the board right now and Garuba moving down. I think the only reason he's not being talked about as a lock for the top 10 is that Real Madrid is ultra-conservative about limiting minutes for their younger players.

remember our front office is very analytics driven
Wagner FT%: .835
Garuba FT%: .659

so analytics would say they do not project to be the same level of shooter. By the way, I would have loved if we had Boston’s pick and could target Garuba.

 

[Telemachus]

I think that's a fair assessment about Wagner and Jalen Johnson but then since we're looking at Wagner as a stretch 4 with some flexibility to switch on the perimeter defensively and the hope that his inconsistent outside jumper gets better with more reps, why wouldn't you take Usman Garuba instead? He's going to fill the same role and his defense to me looks like it's going to have a more immediate impact. Maybe he has a little further to go offensively but if Wagner is going to be considered a shooter (34.3% on 102 attempts in his most recent NCAA season) shouldn't Garuba be in the same ballpark (33.8% on 71 attempts in his most recent Liga ACB season)?

He doesn't have super articulate answers in his film session video and it surely doesn't help that he plays in Spain and is still working on his English, but just watching the clips here it's obvious that he knows exactly what he's doing on the court. He might not be able to express it verbally but nobody breaks up a play multiple times in the same possession through dumb luck. His reaction time going from defending at the three point line to contesting in the paint is phenomenal. I like his game tape better on defense than Scottie Barnes and everyone has Barnes moving up the board right now and Garuba moving down. I think the only reason he's not being talked about as a lock for the top 10 is that Real Madrid is ultra-conservative about limiting minutes for their younger players.

I think you have to look at more than simply shooting on offense. Wagner is very good at setting picks and knows when to cut to the basket or float to the perimeter. He is also a good ball handler and passer. Garuba has done a good job of improving his shot, but has a long way to go before he is an effective offensive player.

 

[hrdboild]

remember our front office is very analytics driven
Wagner FT%: .835
Garuba FT%: .659

so analytics would say they do not project to be the same level of shooter. By the way, I would have loved if we had Boston’s pick and could target Garuba.

I think you have to look at more than simply shooting on offense. Wagner is very good at setting picks and knows when to cut to the basket or float to the perimeter. He is also a good ball handler and passer. Garuba has done a good job of improving his shot, but has a long way to go before he is an effective offensive player.

This whole free throw % = three point % narrative is incredibly reductive. It can be a predictor of overall shooting aptitude or it can just be a predictor of how well a player converts from the free throw line. It's not like there's a 1:1 correlation there. It also ignores all sorts of interesting data such as where the player is shooting from, whether they created the shot themselves or were assisted, is the trend going up or down, does the shooting form look easily repeatable or will it need to be changed, etc. In this case there's also the fact that Garuba is a year younger and plays in a completely different professional league for a team that is trying to win a championship. Of course his role in the offense is smaller than a second year college player. In his last 10 games Garuba was 10 for 24 from three (41.6%) and 10 for 11 from the free throw line (90.9%). Sure that's only 10 games but I don't think it's out of line with expectations for a 19 year old to still be improving throughout the course of the season. I would hope that having an analytics driven front office would mean that any and all data is being analyzed not simply whatever buzzworthy stat fits a pre-established narrative.

@Telemachus Garuba started his career with Real Madrid as a guard and he does occasionally handle the ball and displays very good situational awareness in locating and passing to open players from the post and on fast breaks. I'm not trying to say that Wagner can't do these things but you're suggesting that Garuba isn't even in the same league as Wagner as a screen setter, passer, and ballhandler and I see little evidence for any of that. Certainly he doesn't get nearly the same opportunities to handle the ball with the team he has around him but that doesn't mean he lacks the ability to do so.