NBA Lottery Thread

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kb02

kb02

All-Star
#1
#1
Kings have a 20% chance of jumping into the top 4, a 46% chance of ending up at #9, a 29% chance of ending up at #10, a 4% chance of ending up at #11, and a 0.4% chance of ending up at #12.

Where’s Vlade when we need him?
 
kb02

kb02

All-Star
#10
#10
Hollinger came out with his top 23 today. Some curve balls relative to common mocks:

1. Cunningham (says not by much)
2. Mobley
3. Scottie Barnes (thinks he may end up being the best in the draft; I agree)
4. Alperen Sengun
5. Jalen Green
6. Suggs
7. Wagoner
8. Kuminga
9. Jalen Johnson
10. Giddey
11. Jared Butler
12. Kispert
13. Bouknight
14. Moody
15. Garuba
16. Mitchell
17. Miles McBride
18. Keon Johnson (much lower than others)
19. Duarte
20. Springer
21. Roko Prkacin
22. Neemias Queta
23. HERB JONES (MY PERSONAL FAVE)

Missing Donsumu , who would be in the 10 - 20 range for me.

See here: https://theathletic.com/2666193/202...1-cade-cunningham-ranks-no-1-but-not-by-much/
 
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hrdboild

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#24
#24
Tetsujin said:
FWIW, Barnes has the same wingspan (and bad shooting stroke) as Kawhi did coming out of college.
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I hear this argument but isn't it also true that there's a half dozen players in every draft who fit that description? And yet there's still only one Kawhi Leonard. Do they all need to go to the Gregg Popovich school of tough love to develop properly? Keon Johnson is also an excellent defender with a questionable jumper. Why is he ranked 15 spots lower here? Is it because he's smaller and doesn't do the Draymond scream whenever you make a good play thing? Almost all of these draft "experts" make me nauseous with their analysis. It tends to be in the same genre of hyperbolic group-think.

A bigger point that tends to get overlooked in the pre-draft period is that a lot of these guys are not going to meet expectations. If every player hit their hypothetical ceiling we'd have 20 All-Stars in every draft. In reality you're lucky to have 4 or 5 All-Stars in the same draft. Legit MVPs come along once every 5 years or so. That means there's a lot of players who will not overcome their weaknesses and will instead settle in as role-players, journeymen, or team leaders in some other international league.

It's not fun to pick on people and point out their flaws but of the 23 players listed there, half of them will probably be available for a minimum contract in 5 years. And considering our past history, the question at the forefront of my mind is how do we not pick one of those players? For instance, my preference is always to find two-way players who can excel in different skill areas offensively and defensively but I've observed over the years how elite defenders I've fallen in love with end up on the end of the bench when the coach doesn't trust them on offense. Bricking open jumpers (or worse, refusing to take them) is a quick ticket out of a rotation for most players. So the clock is already ticking for some of these guys.
 
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iowamcnabb

iowamcnabb

Hall of Famer
#25
#25
SLAB said:
I just adopted a puppy. Hopefully she’s a good luck charm.

—

That said, I’m mentally prepared for the 0.4% chance at 11 because the lottery gods hate us for spitting in their face. Anything better is gravy. Lol
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if you don’t mind, please print out a picture of the expected top 15 draft picks. Place them across the room and see which photo the dog tears up first. It’s really the only way to know.
 
kb02

kb02

All-Star
#26
#26
hrdboild said:
I hear this argument but isn't it also true that there's a half dozen players in every draft who fit that description? And yet there's still only one Kawhi Leonard. Do they all need to go to the Gregg Popovich school of tough love to develop properly? Keon Johnson is also an excellent defender with a questionable jumper. Why is he ranked 15 spots lower here? Is it because he's smaller and doesn't do the Draymond scream whenever you make a good play thing? Almost all of these draft "experts" make me nauseous with their analysis. It tends to be in the same genre of hyperbolic group-think.

A bigger point that tends to get overlooked in the pre-draft period is that a lot of these guys are not going to meet expectations. If every player hit their hypothetical ceiling we'd have 20 All-Stars in every draft. In reality you're lucky to have 4 or 5 All-Stars in the same draft. Legit MVPs come along once every 5 years or so. That means there's a lot of players who will not overcome their weaknesses and will instead settle in as role-players, journeymen, or team leaders in some other international league.

It's not fun to pick on people and point out their flaws but of the 23 players listed there, half of them will probably be available for a minimum contract in 5 years. And considering our past history, the question at the forefront of my mind is how do we not pick one of those players? My preference is always to find two-way players who can excel in different skill areas offensively and defensively but I've observed over the years how elite defenders I've fallen in love with end up on the end of the bench when the coach doesn't trust them on offense. Bricking open jumpers (or worse, refusing to take them) is a quick ticket out of a rotation for most players. So the clock is already ticking for some of these guys.
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Keon Johnson measured 6'3.25. He's shorter than Fox. Think if anyone drops, it's him.
 
kb02

kb02

All-Star
#27
#27
iowamcnabb said:
I just find it hard to believe a non shooting low scoring PF is going to end up the best player in the draft. This is a scoring and shooting league these days
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Giannis is a PF, who is a below average shooter. So was Magic. I'm not saying Barnes will be them, but he has a chance with his physical attributes. I'd take that chance, especially if the other choices aren't exactly jaw dropping.

FWIW, I think Cade and Mobley will be good players. Think Cade ends up being somewhere between Harrison Barnes and Paul George. Likely closer to Barnes than George. Mobley is Aldridge. Think Scottie Barnes ends up being somewhere between SloMo and a less flashy, more defensive Magic.
 
Dime Dropper

Dime Dropper

All-Star
#28
#28
I always saw Keon Johnson as a combo guard anyway rather than a wing, so his measurements don't surprise or worry me. He reminds me of Lavine with his size, length, explosiveness and scoring ability. Neither were prolific in college, just very talented. We'll see if Johnson can develop as well as Lavine, but I do like his talent level.
 
Dime Dropper

Dime Dropper

All-Star
#30
#30
kb02 said:
Giannis is a PF, who is a below average shooter. So was Magic. I'm not saying Barnes will be them, but he has a chance with his physical attributes. I'd take that chance, especially if the other choices aren't exactly jaw dropping.

FWIW, I think Cade and Mobley will be good players. Think Cade ends up being somewhere between Harrison Barnes and Paul George. Likely closer to Barnes than George. Mobley is Aldridge. Think Scottie Barnes ends up being somewhere between SloMo and a less flashy, more defensive Magic.
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Giannis and Magic might have had PF size, but they're obviously not PFs.

I don't think Cade is anything like Barnes as a player (or George), and Mobley definitely isn't similar to Aldridge. Have you watched these guys play?
 
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