NBA Lottery Thread

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Iced Espresso

Iced Espresso

Starter
#61
#61
I really feel like the Pelicans are going to leap us. Just did my single lotto sim. Sure enough they landed 1. But we got the number 2...

Anyone else think the Pelicans land top 4?

Still predicting we end up at 10.
 
kb02

kb02

All-Star
#62
#62
Hoovtrain said:
the way I understand it, isn’t it around 5% chance each for them to get 1, 2, 3 or 4?
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Per the chart above, yes, but 20% = cumulative for a top 4 spot. They only draw for the first four spots. Spots 5 to 13 then goes in order based on record less any teams that may have jumped into the top 4. Worse case scenario is for three teams behind the Kings to jump into the top 4. Odds of that happening? 0.4%.
 
kb02

kb02

All-Star
#63
#63
Iced Espresso said:
I really feel like the Pelicans are going to leap us. Just did my single lotto sim. Sure enough they landed 1. But we got the number 2...

Anyone else think the Pelicans land top 4?

Still predicting we end up at 10.
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Better odds of the Kings ending up at a spot other than 9 than on it. Lolzzz.
 
Tetsujin

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
#66
#66
kb02 said:
The lolzz part = sarcasm on my part. It didn’t translate over text. Meant to be a joke at the odds expense.
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Yeah I got ya. It’s funny because bad teams play hard to reach those high lotto spots and always end up dropping a slot or two when the Cavs move up for the 1st overall pick for the fourth time in twenty years or whatever.
 
kb02

kb02

All-Star
#67
#67
Tetsujin said:
Yeah I got ya. It’s funny because bad teams play hard to reach those high lotto spots and always end up dropping a slot or two when the Cavs move up for the 1st overall pick for the fourth time in twenty years or whatever.
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Yea, the Cavs luck has been crazy.
 
SacTownKid

SacTownKid

Hall of Famer
#68
#68
ESP47 said:
I think measurements are very important when it comes to certain aspects of the game. Defense in general is dominated by long wingspans. Rim protection is the most important. Bagley's wingspan is about 4-6 inches shorter than the majority of the good NBA centers and it's a big reason why his rim protection is so poor. Richaun Holmes would probably be a completely different type of defensive player if he had a longer wingspan. On the other hand, Robert Williams is 6'8" with a 7'6" wingspan so it's no wonder he had 8 or 9 blocks in a playoff game.

I wouldn't pick a lesser player due to his measurements but if two players are fairly equal and I need defense and one has a much longer wingspan than the other, I'll pick the wingspan because his odds of becoming a good defender will be higher. Guys like Jimmy Butler who are all world defenders with short wingspans are few and far between.
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I would think standing reach is probably more important than wingspan in shot blocking. Wingspan numbers can be deceiving since some players have really long arms and a shorter wingspan because of their narrow frame. Skal was a perfect example of that. He had a shorter WS than WCS but his arms were way longer. Holmes must have some really long arms relative to wingspan because he doesn't have hulk shoulders either.

In looking at Bagley I'd bet his wingspan is around Harry Giles. They looked very similar in length and width when next to eachother. The hands obviously factor in though too. Bottom line, this team needs size and length on the wing for sure considering the other parts of this team and the value in that right now.
 
T

The_Jamal

Hall of Famer
#69
#69
ESP47 said:
I think measurements are very important when it comes to certain aspects of the game. Defense in general is dominated by long wingspans. Rim protection is the most important. Bagley's wingspan is about 4-6 inches shorter than the majority of the good NBA centers and it's a big reason why his rim protection is so poor. Richaun Holmes would probably be a completely different type of defensive player if he had a longer wingspan. On the other hand, Robert Williams is 6'8" with a 7'6" wingspan so it's no wonder he had 8 or 9 blocks in a playoff game.

I wouldn't pick a lesser player due to his measurements but if two players are fairly equal and I need defense and one has a much longer wingspan than the other, I'll pick the wingspan because his odds of becoming a good defender will be higher. Guys like Jimmy Butler who are all world defenders with short wingspans are few and far between.
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Kawhi
Thybulle
Simmons
Draymond
Gobert
Smart
Giannis
Embiid
Adebayo

all with amazing wingspan and/or standing reach
 
SacTownKid

SacTownKid

Hall of Famer
#73
#73
Hate to say it because a franchise that putrid doesn't deserve it but please, let the Twolves win. If the Warriors get a top pick they are already saying they'll look into going after a star apparently and they'll likely get it which means win now loses some real value.
 
Capt. Factorial

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#76
#76
SacTownKid said:
Hate to say it because a franchise that putrid doesn't deserve it but please, let the Twolves win. If the Warriors get a top pick they are already saying they'll look into going after a star apparently and they'll likely get it which means win now loses some real value.
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But what if they consider Buddy a star? Buddy for Wiggins and the #2, straight up. Done.
 
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