Marvin Bagley breaks hand again
- Thread starter SLAB
- Start date
The other contractual concern now if he ends up missing the rest of the season (there's exactly 2 months left so it's possible) is that you go into the final year of his rookie deal not knowing what you have with him. So even if he (best-case scenario) takes a huge step forward next season, you're talking about paying a guy with very little track record of high level performance based on how well he played in a contract year. That's almost always a scary move for a franchise.
Based on everything we're hearing from his dad it doesn't seem like he'll try and cut Sacramento any kind of a deal and you know some franchise is going to be willing to overpay. There's always at least 1 team willing to bid up a restricted free agent thinking they can add a lottery pick with free agent money just like Atlanta did with Bogdan. The Kings will pick up his 4th year option because they really have no choice but very soon the argument isn't going to be about his potential anymore, it's going to be about whether or not that potential is worth $100 million. It's the Buddy Hield situation all over again.
Based on everything we're hearing from his dad it doesn't seem like he'll try and cut Sacramento any kind of a deal and you know some franchise is going to be willing to overpay. There's always at least 1 team willing to bid up a restricted free agent thinking they can add a lottery pick with free agent money just like Atlanta did with Bogdan. The Kings will pick up his 4th year option because they really have no choice but very soon the argument isn't going to be about his potential anymore, it's going to be about whether or not that potential is worth $100 million. It's the Buddy Hield situation all over again.
This may be the best Kings related analysis I've ever read from a source that isn't directly in the Kings' orbit. Bravo Jonathan Tjarks for actually doing your homework and getting this right! He very neatly outlines the main points of our current situation:
(1) Fox and Haliburton in the same starting lineup needs to happen right away and should be a great foundation for us to build around.
(2) Barnes has been aces this season and he's the type of player we shouldn't throw away unless we have a very good reason.
(3) Bagley in the starting lineup is a huge problem for our defense and his biggest growth area on offense this season (shooting 35% from three on 2.6 attempts per game) is not very hard to replace when you also consider that he doesn't have the defensive impact a guy his size is expected to have. In fact, we already had a defensively challenged stretch 4 on the roster who we benched to give Bagley his spot in the starting lineup.
The other interesting wrinkle here that the article did not touch on is how moving Haliburton into the starting lineup (assuming Luke isn't bold enough to push his favorite Canadian into that spot instead) is likely to impact erstwhile 3pt champion Buddy Hield's shooting. After making 41% from deep in January, prompting sighs of relief that his touch had returned at last, Buddy proceeded to nosedive down to 32% on over 10 attempts per game in February. That's... not good. So far in March he's back up to 41% after 5 games and, as Tetsujin pointed out in the last game thread, the less Harrison Barnes and Buddy Hield are asked to create their own shot from the perimeter, the better life is for everyone. (You can bash in the post all day though HB). Tyrese and DeAaron driving and dishing to Buddy and Harrison spotted up on the 3pt line is what we want on offense. We should be running that particular glass horse until the revolving doors fall off. (for you @bajaden
)
Not to beat said glass horse, but what the heck I'm just going to say it anyway: Getting a preview of a potential post-Bagley future might not be the worst thing for us right now. If we can get Metu and Whiteside back in uniform sometime soon and maybe even give Woodard half a look before the season is over, we might even show some improvement from the listless uninspiring team we've been for the past month or so.
(1) Fox and Haliburton in the same starting lineup needs to happen right away and should be a great foundation for us to build around.
(2) Barnes has been aces this season and he's the type of player we shouldn't throw away unless we have a very good reason.
(3) Bagley in the starting lineup is a huge problem for our defense and his biggest growth area on offense this season (shooting 35% from three on 2.6 attempts per game) is not very hard to replace when you also consider that he doesn't have the defensive impact a guy his size is expected to have. In fact, we already had a defensively challenged stretch 4 on the roster who we benched to give Bagley his spot in the starting lineup.
The other interesting wrinkle here that the article did not touch on is how moving Haliburton into the starting lineup (assuming Luke isn't bold enough to push his favorite Canadian into that spot instead) is likely to impact erstwhile 3pt champion Buddy Hield's shooting. After making 41% from deep in January, prompting sighs of relief that his touch had returned at last, Buddy proceeded to nosedive down to 32% on over 10 attempts per game in February. That's... not good. So far in March he's back up to 41% after 5 games and, as Tetsujin pointed out in the last game thread, the less Harrison Barnes and Buddy Hield are asked to create their own shot from the perimeter, the better life is for everyone. (You can bash in the post all day though HB). Tyrese and DeAaron driving and dishing to Buddy and Harrison spotted up on the 3pt line is what we want on offense. We should be running that particular glass horse until the revolving doors fall off. (for you @bajaden
)Not to beat said glass horse, but what the heck I'm just going to say it anyway: Getting a preview of a potential post-Bagley future might not be the worst thing for us right now. If we can get Metu and Whiteside back in uniform sometime soon and maybe even give Woodard half a look before the season is over, we might even show some improvement from the listless uninspiring team we've been for the past month or so.
This may be the best Kings related analysis I've ever read from a source that isn't directly in the Kings' orbit. Bravo Jonathan Tjarks for actually doing your homework and getting this right! He very neatly outlines the main points of our current situation:
(1) Fox and Haliburton in the same starting lineup needs to happen right away and should be a great foundation for us to build around.
(2) Barnes has been aces this season and he's the type of player we shouldn't throw away unless we have a very good reason.
(3) Bagley in the starting lineup is a huge problem for our defense and his biggest growth area on offense this season (shooting 35% from three on 2.6 attempts per game) is not very hard to replace when you also consider that he doesn't have the defensive impact a guy his size is expected to have. In fact, we already had a defensively challenged stretch 4 on the roster who we benched to give Bagley his spot in the starting lineup.
The other interesting wrinkle here that the article did not touch on is how moving Haliburton into the starting lineup (assuming Luke isn't bold enough to push his favorite Canadian into that spot instead) is likely to impact erstwhile 3pt champion Buddy Hield's shooting. After making 41% from deep in January, prompting sighs of relief that his touch had returned at last, Buddy proceeded to nosedive down to 32% on over 10 attempts per game in February. That's... not good. So far in March he's back up to 41% after 5 games and, as Tetsujin pointed out in the last game thread, the less Harrison Barnes and Buddy Hield are asked to create their own shot from the perimeter, the better life is for everyone. (You can bash in the post all day though HB). Tyrese and DeAaron driving and dishing to Buddy and Harrison spotted up on the 3pt line is what we want on offense. We should be running that particular glass horse until the revolving doors fall off. (for you @bajaden)
Not to beat said glass horse, but what the heck I'm just going to say it anyway: Getting a preview of a potential post-Bagley future might not be the worst thing for us right now. If we can get Metu and Whiteside back in uniform sometime soon and maybe even give Woodard half a look before the season is over, we might even show some improvement from the listless uninspiring team we've been for the past month or so.
(1) Fox and Haliburton in the same starting lineup needs to happen right away and should be a great foundation for us to build around.
(2) Barnes has been aces this season and he's the type of player we shouldn't throw away unless we have a very good reason.
(3) Bagley in the starting lineup is a huge problem for our defense and his biggest growth area on offense this season (shooting 35% from three on 2.6 attempts per game) is not very hard to replace when you also consider that he doesn't have the defensive impact a guy his size is expected to have. In fact, we already had a defensively challenged stretch 4 on the roster who we benched to give Bagley his spot in the starting lineup.
The other interesting wrinkle here that the article did not touch on is how moving Haliburton into the starting lineup (assuming Luke isn't bold enough to push his favorite Canadian into that spot instead) is likely to impact erstwhile 3pt champion Buddy Hield's shooting. After making 41% from deep in January, prompting sighs of relief that his touch had returned at last, Buddy proceeded to nosedive down to 32% on over 10 attempts per game in February. That's... not good. So far in March he's back up to 41% after 5 games and, as Tetsujin pointed out in the last game thread, the less Harrison Barnes and Buddy Hield are asked to create their own shot from the perimeter, the better life is for everyone. (You can bash in the post all day though HB). Tyrese and DeAaron driving and dishing to Buddy and Harrison spotted up on the 3pt line is what we want on offense. We should be running that particular glass horse until the revolving doors fall off. (for you @bajaden
)Not to beat said glass horse, but what the heck I'm just going to say it anyway: Getting a preview of a potential post-Bagley future might not be the worst thing for us right now. If we can get Metu and Whiteside back in uniform sometime soon and maybe even give Woodard half a look before the season is over, we might even show some improvement from the listless uninspiring team we've been for the past month or so.
It's such an obvious direction to go in the current NBA. I will cut Luke some slack here though. He knows he needs to work line-ups with Marvin for his growth. At the same time (and this is what Tjarks was getting at in his article and comments he's made in podcasts), no matter how good Marvin gets on offense, you'll likely always have issues in having to pair him up with the "right" front court mates (either as a C or PF). People have gotten on Luke for the fact that Marvin's not consistently getting "starter" minutes, but this is his issue. Will be interesting to see how things play out over the next couple weeks without Marvin and what they says about his future with the team.
The problem with Bagley remains the same. As a 5 he is not even close to being a good enough defender. As a 4 he still is a net negative defensively and playing with a non shooting 5 will take some away from his offense. The question is what happens when you replace Bagley with Barnes at 4 and a shooter/3d guy at the 3? The offense probably gets better because of the added shooting/spacing and the defense remains about the same. That will always be the issue with Marvin. Thats the reason why he has been a net negative per most of the metrics and the exact reason why he most likely wont be a high impact player in this league. He clearly has potential to be an off the bench instant energy type of guy if he continues to improve.
I think the progression for Bagley needs to a follow a similar mold to Kanter: Put him in a 21-24 MPG role as a back-up big where he can feast on back-ups and not be nearly as exposed against starting caliber wings that take advantage of his defense. Kanter has been able to carve out a fairly solid role since teams figured out he can't be a reliable starter with his defensive problems.
This talk about Bagley being net negative is highly overblown. He has been quite decent lately.
Here is the 5 man lineup stats with some filters. I filter out to only the 3 most-used lineups. Also filter since Feb-9 which is right after the 7-1 stretch. I always feel that stretch was fluky anyway.
https://go.nba.com/vt9r
On to some observations:
Here is the 5 man lineup stats with some filters. I filter out to only the 3 most-used lineups. Also filter since Feb-9 which is right after the 7-1 stretch. I always feel that stretch was fluky anyway.
https://go.nba.com/vt9r
On to some observations:
- The most used lineup is the starting lineup, as well as the best lineup. Biggest net positive. Efficient offense.
- The 2nd-most used lineup is the closing lineup. Net positive. Not very good offense but good defense.
- The last lineup is the Bagley at center with Fox, Hali, Buddy and Barnes. Slightly negative which is fine really, considering this is a 3 win and 13 loss stretch.
- When Bagley is in the lineup, defense is bad but offense is good.
- When Holmes is in the lineup, pace is slow. I imagine they run a lot of P&R in the half court when Holmes is in.
- When Bagley is the center, pace is fast. Probably because Bagley can grab a defensive rebound and go coast to coast, I imagine they run a lot in transition.
Its easy to see the mindset of a lot of nba players being to score 17+ and get paid throughout their careers. Not everybody wants to be great. Not everybody wants to put in the work that it takes to reach that level. Marvin might be one of those. He could easily put up 20 with 10 rebounds on a losing team that feeds him, he and especially his father know that. Ofc I could be wrong but those are the vibes I get.
