Then the “fans” get all butt hurt when the player calls them out for hating or booing like buddy. Even though it was taken out of context, buddy got a lot of hate for calling out the fans that boo’d. The love that we showed CWebb, Vlade, peja, Doug and Bibby is what made Sacramento the best fans in the world. The recent hate for the players is getting tiring.
Bagley.
- Thread starter sactowndog
- Start date
The specific DM Anderson alludes to is available on reddit and is from some gambler in Australia. It has nothing to do with Kings fans. This is “Jason being Jason”. Now, the Bagleys slowly starting a narrative to leave town wouldn’t surprise me in the least, but at the end of the day has a lot more to do with Marvin not being close to on track for the max. We’ll see what happens. Great game last night—let’s hope the development continues.
What players were drafted by the Kings, who went on to succeed somewhere else because we ran them out of town and didn't give them enough time to develop?
The fans who are on Bagley's case are just scared because his numbers have bust written all over them. You guys that keep comparing his development to players like Bam and Siakam aren't looking deeper into the numbers. Those guys both had good advanced stats and defensive metrics either out of the gate or by their 2nd year.
He was near the bottom of the league in RPM last year and near the bottom of the league this year. He's also 30th in his draft class in VORP.
I'm not saying it's impossible he could develop into a good player but I'm having trouble finding real comps here. Julius Randle is really about the only comparison. His offense was behind Bagley's but his defense was better. Jabari Parker played further away from the paint but his comps are similar. Javale McGee also started out as a poor defender but he had high block numbers that showed his promise. Other than that, there's not a whole lot to compare him to.
If you want to say that he plays basketball and basketball players can take time to develop, then that's fine. There's just not a whole lot of evidence so far that says he will. He's far more than likely going to be like Randle or Parker than he will like Siakam or Bam. Big men just don't come into the league this bad defensively and make a high level career out of it. It seems absurd but Harry Giles actually has a higher chance of being the better player in the end because it's easier for a big man to improve offensively than defensively.
The fans who are on Bagley's case are just scared because his numbers have bust written all over them. You guys that keep comparing his development to players like Bam and Siakam aren't looking deeper into the numbers. Those guys both had good advanced stats and defensive metrics either out of the gate or by their 2nd year.
He was near the bottom of the league in RPM last year and near the bottom of the league this year. He's also 30th in his draft class in VORP.
I'm not saying it's impossible he could develop into a good player but I'm having trouble finding real comps here. Julius Randle is really about the only comparison. His offense was behind Bagley's but his defense was better. Jabari Parker played further away from the paint but his comps are similar. Javale McGee also started out as a poor defender but he had high block numbers that showed his promise. Other than that, there's not a whole lot to compare him to.
If you want to say that he plays basketball and basketball players can take time to develop, then that's fine. There's just not a whole lot of evidence so far that says he will. He's far more than likely going to be like Randle or Parker than he will like Siakam or Bam. Big men just don't come into the league this bad defensively and make a high level career out of it. It seems absurd but Harry Giles actually has a higher chance of being the better player in the end because it's easier for a big man to improve offensively than defensively.
I don't know if you meant to compare Bagley to any of those guys specifically, but it's probably worth noting that those three #1/#2 big man picks all failed for very different reasons.
Oden failed because his body was fundamentally broken. He was talented, he was strong, he was athletic, and his frame just wasn't able to support how massive of a human being he was and the stresses he put on it as a professional athlete. Bagley simply does not look to have that problem - he's not too muscular for his frame. I know that we're all a bit concerned over Bagley's early injuries, but they are nothing like Oden's. In seven years in the NBA before finally hanging it up, Oden barely notched over 2000 minutes. Bagley will likely pass Oden's career minutes before the end of January. A career completely derailed by injury isn't out of the question, but it doesn't seem likely for Bagley.
Thabeet failed because he fundamentally lacked the athleticism to play at the NBA level. He was slow, and he couldn't move, and he couldn't react to the NBA pace. That made him unplayable. This is clearly not a problem for Bagley, who is at worst a fine NBA athlete and at best an outstanding one. Bagley is no Thabeet. (Bagley will likely pass Thabeet's career NBA minutes by the end of the season.)
Darko failed because he just wasn't very good at basketball. He couldn't score - Bagley's career points per 36 is nearly DOUBLE Darko's. Furthermore, Darko's offense was almost exclusively from within 10 feet of the basket. Darko went 0-6 from three in his NBA career, and was only worth 0.6 points per shot when he attempted one from outside 10 feet (Bagley, in contrast, is 0.83 points per shot from outside 10, and looks to be capable of better). Inside of 10 feet, Darko shot 49.5% - Bagley is at 56.4%, and has not only a better free throw rate but a much better FT%. Bagley outrebounds Darko by 2.6 rebounds per 36, and for all of the "Manna From Heaven" Vlade-Divacesque passing skills that David Kahn saw, Bagley is only behind Darko by 0.3 assists per 36. For all of that, Darko played over 85% of his career minutes in his age-21 season and later - so in his "prime" of skill - while Bagley has clearly outpaced him in his age-19 and age-20 seasons alone with much improvement to expect. Bagley is no Darko, we can already cross that one off the list, too.
Oden failed because his body was fundamentally broken. He was talented, he was strong, he was athletic, and his frame just wasn't able to support how massive of a human being he was and the stresses he put on it as a professional athlete. Bagley simply does not look to have that problem - he's not too muscular for his frame. I know that we're all a bit concerned over Bagley's early injuries, but they are nothing like Oden's. In seven years in the NBA before finally hanging it up, Oden barely notched over 2000 minutes. Bagley will likely pass Oden's career minutes before the end of January. A career completely derailed by injury isn't out of the question, but it doesn't seem likely for Bagley.
Thabeet failed because he fundamentally lacked the athleticism to play at the NBA level. He was slow, and he couldn't move, and he couldn't react to the NBA pace. That made him unplayable. This is clearly not a problem for Bagley, who is at worst a fine NBA athlete and at best an outstanding one. Bagley is no Thabeet. (Bagley will likely pass Thabeet's career NBA minutes by the end of the season.)
Darko failed because he just wasn't very good at basketball. He couldn't score - Bagley's career points per 36 is nearly DOUBLE Darko's. Furthermore, Darko's offense was almost exclusively from within 10 feet of the basket. Darko went 0-6 from three in his NBA career, and was only worth 0.6 points per shot when he attempted one from outside 10 feet (Bagley, in contrast, is 0.83 points per shot from outside 10, and looks to be capable of better). Inside of 10 feet, Darko shot 49.5% - Bagley is at 56.4%, and has not only a better free throw rate but a much better FT%. Bagley outrebounds Darko by 2.6 rebounds per 36, and for all of the "Manna From Heaven" Vlade-Divacesque passing skills that David Kahn saw, Bagley is only behind Darko by 0.3 assists per 36. For all of that, Darko played over 85% of his career minutes in his age-21 season and later - so in his "prime" of skill - while Bagley has clearly outpaced him in his age-19 and age-20 seasons alone with much improvement to expect. Bagley is no Darko, we can already cross that one off the list, too.
The three examples failed to meet expectations in loaded draft classes, that is their potential commonality- not what caused the failed expectations. Without a solid second half of this season, Bagley steps dangerously close to these three. Again, I am not saying he is on par with these three, yet. Nor am I rooting for him to head there. But without a strong second half, questions will become more valid.
My period of logging out obviously didn't last long. I admit - I am impulsive. Plus I think it is important to vocally support Kings players.
First - I think there is a difference between 'I would like to see MBIII set better screens' and 'he sucks, he has no future'. Sacramento used to hold the record for most consecutive sellout games - even though the team wasn't always that good. It's nice to have stats that say things like 'we consistently support our team'.
Second - along the lines of supporting young players, there was a quote from Roy Hodgson (Crystal Palace soccer manager) about John Stones (English/ Man City defender) who made a costly mistake vs Palace on the weekend:
Sharing this because it's nice to have some perspective with young payers. If you focus so much on the negative aspects you will miss the fact that there is a good player in front of you that has their best years ahead of them.
Third - in response to KF.com comments like 'it would be statistically unprecedented for MBIII to become great' or 'he isn't like the other guys that took time' - as a freshman, MBIII was the third player (after Horace Grant and Tim Dunan) to lead the ACC in scoring, rebounding and shooting percentage in a single-season. He was an all-ACC academic team selection and the second player in history to win both ACC freshman of the year and player of the year in the same season (more amazing stats here: https://goduke.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/marvin-bagley-iii/4427). As a rookie he made all-rookie team despite playing on the bench (possibly for a coach that wanted someone else). Not every player that has a good college career has a good NBA career and not every player that is all rookie becomes an all-star or all-NBA player but surely nice to have a young standout like MBIII to support?
First - I think there is a difference between 'I would like to see MBIII set better screens' and 'he sucks, he has no future'. Sacramento used to hold the record for most consecutive sellout games - even though the team wasn't always that good. It's nice to have stats that say things like 'we consistently support our team'.
Second - along the lines of supporting young players, there was a quote from Roy Hodgson (Crystal Palace soccer manager) about John Stones (English/ Man City defender) who made a costly mistake vs Palace on the weekend:
Sharing this because it's nice to have some perspective with young payers. If you focus so much on the negative aspects you will miss the fact that there is a good player in front of you that has their best years ahead of them.
Third - in response to KF.com comments like 'it would be statistically unprecedented for MBIII to become great' or 'he isn't like the other guys that took time' - as a freshman, MBIII was the third player (after Horace Grant and Tim Dunan) to lead the ACC in scoring, rebounding and shooting percentage in a single-season. He was an all-ACC academic team selection and the second player in history to win both ACC freshman of the year and player of the year in the same season (more amazing stats here: https://goduke.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/marvin-bagley-iii/4427). As a rookie he made all-rookie team despite playing on the bench (possibly for a coach that wanted someone else). Not every player that has a good college career has a good NBA career and not every player that is all rookie becomes an all-star or all-NBA player but surely nice to have a young standout like MBIII to support?
I understand the frustration with respect to what we expected of this team and where we are.
I also know that Bagley has only played 75 career games and his stats are around the same last year. His 3% is down but he didn’t really start his 3 point game till the middle of the season coming off the bench. His free throw % shows his capacity to have a better fg% and hopefully he does improve.
Comparing him with other players they weren’t where Bagley is after their first 75 games.
Now I don’t think Bagley had to defend nba caliber players like most college guys and I do expect him to be much better once he gets enough reps in over the next few years.
Is he a bust no he is far from that and most of us hope both Bagley and Fox become what we all wish they can be in a few years.
I also know that Bagley has only played 75 career games and his stats are around the same last year. His 3% is down but he didn’t really start his 3 point game till the middle of the season coming off the bench. His free throw % shows his capacity to have a better fg% and hopefully he does improve.
Comparing him with other players they weren’t where Bagley is after their first 75 games.
Now I don’t think Bagley had to defend nba caliber players like most college guys and I do expect him to be much better once he gets enough reps in over the next few years.
Is he a bust no he is far from that and most of us hope both Bagley and Fox become what we all wish they can be in a few years.
Bagley put up 20 and 10 per 36 in his rookie year. He is putting up 20 and 10 in his soph year.
Seriously, what is the problem? I get the frustration with his defense and some holes in his game, but we have a potential All-Star here, there is no problem. We got a stud.
Let's step back and look at this: if you tell me there is a 6'-10 athletic freak who can put up 20 and 10 but has questionable defense and needs to get stronger; and the question is, is he worth the #2 pick? My answer is hell yes!! I have seen smaller and less talented big men went #2. Hell, if Bagley is in the 2020 draft, he'd be the front runner to be the #1 pick based on nothing but his play at Duke.
The scary thing for other teams is: Bagley is putting up those numbers despite neither Joeger nor Walton knowing how to best use him. What happens after Bagley gets stronger, gets a better jumper, and the coach realizes he is almost unstoppable in pick and roll going downhill? The sky is the limit for this kid.
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Seriously, what is the problem? I get the frustration with his defense and some holes in his game, but we have a potential All-Star here, there is no problem. We got a stud.
Let's step back and look at this: if you tell me there is a 6'-10 athletic freak who can put up 20 and 10 but has questionable defense and needs to get stronger; and the question is, is he worth the #2 pick? My answer is hell yes!! I have seen smaller and less talented big men went #2. Hell, if Bagley is in the 2020 draft, he'd be the front runner to be the #1 pick based on nothing but his play at Duke.
The scary thing for other teams is: Bagley is putting up those numbers despite neither Joeger nor Walton knowing how to best use him. What happens after Bagley gets stronger, gets a better jumper, and the coach realizes he is almost unstoppable in pick and roll going downhill? The sky is the limit for this kid.
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Averaging 20 & 10 per36 doesn't necessarily equate to a future all star.
Notables that average 20 & 10 per36 this year:
Tacko Fall
Chimezie Metu
Matt Mooney
Boban Marjanovic
Willy Hernangomez
Moritz Wagner
Christian Wood
Notables that averaged 20 & 10 per36 last year:
Alan Williams
Christian Wood
Jonathan Motley
Boban Marjanovic
Chris Boucher
Enes Kanter
There's more to basketball than averaging 20 & 10 per36.
Notables that average 20 & 10 per36 this year:
Tacko Fall
Chimezie Metu
Matt Mooney
Boban Marjanovic
Willy Hernangomez
Moritz Wagner
Christian Wood
Notables that averaged 20 & 10 per36 last year:
Alan Williams
Christian Wood
Jonathan Motley
Boban Marjanovic
Chris Boucher
Enes Kanter
There's more to basketball than averaging 20 & 10 per36.
Understood, but he's not the #1 or #2 option right now in this offense. He's playing the same role as Holmes. When they look for him to score, the team clears out to let him go to work. They don't move and cut to give him options.
Watching the last couple of games closely, some of that is changing. Players are moving and he's looking to pass. Every pass doesn't lead to an assist, but he's moving the ball more.
Watching the last couple of games closely, some of that is changing. Players are moving and he's looking to pass. Every pass doesn't lead to an assist, but he's moving the ball more.
Lol come on, you know this is disingenuous. Listing Fall, Metu, Mooney, Boban, and Hernangomez are garbage time only players and you know that. Wagner and Wood are actually playing really well this season and deserve more minutes than they're getting. And Kanter has always been a bit of an outlier as a low minutes big man who puts up huge Per minute numbers.
Per 36 isn't good, but this is just trying to push a narrative.
Per 36 isn't good, but this is just trying to push a narrative.
The problem is that big men that are defensively challenged low bbiq through college to his second year in the league, dont usually develope into high iq and good defensive players. Also big men that are bad defensively and cant create offense for others have very limited ceiling on how valuable they are going to be. Being a 20/10 player doesnt equal a very valuable player. Theres a lot more to it.
