Bagley progress and pending return
- Thread starter okrim
- Start date
- Status
Actually in the last game he made some nice passes. It's a learning situation and you have to give him some time to adjust his game. People always say a coach should play a player to his strengths, but then say, the same player needs to adjust his play to fit the team concept. I think it's a little bit of both, which can be a fine line to walk for the coach. Walton has a problem right now and that's trying to figure out how to get both Holmes and Bagley minutes.
Holmes is the best post defender we have, and you have to admit the carries his load offensively as well. It may not always be pretty but he's efficient. Bagley is an elite athlete who can take other big's off the dribble from 18 feet. He can be a nightmare to guard for players like Adams or Gobert. Once he becomes consistent with that 16 to 18 foot jumper, he becomes almost unguardable.
I'd like to see both Holmes and Bagley on the floor together. It might be a bit ugly for a while, but eventually, it could be a major plus on both sides of the ball. It would certainly help our rebounding, and eventually our overall team defense
Holmes is the best post defender we have, and you have to admit the carries his load offensively as well. It may not always be pretty but he's efficient. Bagley is an elite athlete who can take other big's off the dribble from 18 feet. He can be a nightmare to guard for players like Adams or Gobert. Once he becomes consistent with that 16 to 18 foot jumper, he becomes almost unguardable.
I'd like to see both Holmes and Bagley on the floor together. It might be a bit ugly for a while, but eventually, it could be a major plus on both sides of the ball. It would certainly help our rebounding, and eventually our overall team defense
There's a learning curve to NBA defense and to state that big men make their mark defensively on day 1 is patently false. Even the best coached defenders came from a different set of rules and get into foul trouble and have to learn to manage the game for a season or two. Why don't you cite examples rather than just claim to the contrary. You've been down on Bagley and made it your mission to go after him since you got here. I make it a point not to engage with you but when you throw out opinions that run counterintuitive to decades of basketball wisdom you should back it up rather than just state it as fact.
We have a list of 59 rookie bigs who played 50+ games, 1500+ minutes, and F/C, C, or C/F. 35 of them had a DBPM of +1 or greater in their respective rookie years. Almost all the defensive greats started making defensive impacts right away while it takes even most great point guards some experience before they can on offense.
—Duncan, Bol, Eaton, Hakeem, DRob, Wallace, Camby, Ewing, Mutumbo are all plus defenders right away. Big Ben makes the biggest leap as he started off modestly and then reached incredible defensive highs.
—Meanwhile, guards, especially small guards will make their impact on offense and very few are ever impactful as rookies. Additionally, very few PGs of typical height are ever even neutral defenders—they’re almost all -1, -2,-3 type defenders. Their offense hasn’t developed yet since they can’t run an offense yet so their offensive impact is either 0 or negative and most of them will be negative defenders even at their peaks. Put all those things together and you get bigs making an impact much earlier in their careers.
—Lastly, it is nearly impossible to make MORE of an impact with elite defense than with elite offense. Elite offense has a higher ceiling especially since you can make 3s instead of twos. The most impactful defensive players are Bigs and they will NOT be able to prevent as many threes as a great offensive player can create (LeBron, Curry, Harden).
Additionally, even bigs, who can affect opposing offenses the most, can’t take away every player who’s scoring on every possession while an offensive player can directly make an offensive impact on every play no matter who is defending him and isn’t limited like a big on defense is.
Elite defensive and offensive seasons comparison based on OBPM and DBPM
+12 seasons: 1 on offense, 0 on defense
+10 seasons: 1 on offense, 0 on defense
+9 seasons: 13 on offense, 0 on defense
+8 seasons: 15 on offense, 0 on defense
+7 seasons: 27 on offense, 1 on defense (right at 7.0)
+6 seasons: 49 on offense, 12 on defense
+5 seasons: 108 on offense, 38 on defense
—Duncan, Bol, Eaton, Hakeem, DRob, Wallace, Camby, Ewing, Mutumbo are all plus defenders right away. Big Ben makes the biggest leap as he started off modestly and then reached incredible defensive highs.
—Meanwhile, guards, especially small guards will make their impact on offense and very few are ever impactful as rookies. Additionally, very few PGs of typical height are ever even neutral defenders—they’re almost all -1, -2,-3 type defenders. Their offense hasn’t developed yet since they can’t run an offense yet so their offensive impact is either 0 or negative and most of them will be negative defenders even at their peaks. Put all those things together and you get bigs making an impact much earlier in their careers.
—Lastly, it is nearly impossible to make MORE of an impact with elite defense than with elite offense. Elite offense has a higher ceiling especially since you can make 3s instead of twos. The most impactful defensive players are Bigs and they will NOT be able to prevent as many threes as a great offensive player can create (LeBron, Curry, Harden).
Additionally, even bigs, who can affect opposing offenses the most, can’t take away every player who’s scoring on every possession while an offensive player can directly make an offensive impact on every play no matter who is defending him and isn’t limited like a big on defense is.
Elite defensive and offensive seasons comparison based on OBPM and DBPM
+12 seasons: 1 on offense, 0 on defense
+10 seasons: 1 on offense, 0 on defense
+9 seasons: 13 on offense, 0 on defense
+8 seasons: 15 on offense, 0 on defense
+7 seasons: 27 on offense, 1 on defense (right at 7.0)
+6 seasons: 49 on offense, 12 on defense
+5 seasons: 108 on offense, 38 on defense
What I did like a lot last night was we saw Bagley in quite a few PnR opportunities, a few of which were really successful. That's where he's going to be successful because that play-set gives you so many options out of it: You can hit Bagley on the roll, Bagley can pop out, Fox can drive and kick to open shooter, Fox can take it to the rim etc. Where we get in trouble with him is the ISO stuff at the top of the key and expect him to create out of it. He's not at the level of KAT/Embiid/Davis yet where that's a positive expectation play.
Defensively though, we got to take him out of the 5 spot. Just not ready for it and he's gonna continue to get bullied there until he bulks up in a couple years. Walton needs to bite the bullet and just play him and Holmes together: It's possible if you pair that duo with 3 of Buddy/Fox/Bogdan/Barnes. Bagley has cut significantly into Bjelica and Holmes minutes, when it doesn't need to be so. Just rotate those 3 together and cut out the Ariza time.
Defensively though, we got to take him out of the 5 spot. Just not ready for it and he's gonna continue to get bullied there until he bulks up in a couple years. Walton needs to bite the bullet and just play him and Holmes together: It's possible if you pair that duo with 3 of Buddy/Fox/Bogdan/Barnes. Bagley has cut significantly into Bjelica and Holmes minutes, when it doesn't need to be so. Just rotate those 3 together and cut out the Ariza time.
Except he's the only one in this thread bringing actually stats rather than "Back in my day, big men walked 20 miles in the snow to get to the gym" type of analysis.
Quality defensive big-men show up early in their careers. AD, Embiid, Gobert, Draymond, Giannis Duncan and the list goes on. It shows up on film and shows up in virtually every metric. And guys like KAT and Jokic, who weren't great defensively to start their careers still aren't classified as "good" on the defensive end to this day, but make up for it by being unicorn offensive players. You could extend this to guys like Blake and Amare who improved as their careers went on, but never became "dominant" defensive players like some of their contemporaries.
Blake seems like a ideal career path for Bagley to follow. Top 1% tier athlete with incredible bounce, great touch around the rim, get to the line at a high rate and the potential to be dominant in the PnR. Then develop the jumper later on in his career.
Quality defensive big-men show up early in their careers. AD, Embiid, Gobert, Draymond, Giannis Duncan and the list goes on. It shows up on film and shows up in virtually every metric. And guys like KAT and Jokic, who weren't great defensively to start their careers still aren't classified as "good" on the defensive end to this day, but make up for it by being unicorn offensive players. You could extend this to guys like Blake and Amare who improved as their careers went on, but never became "dominant" defensive players like some of their contemporaries.
Blake seems like a ideal career path for Bagley to follow. Top 1% tier athlete with incredible bounce, great touch around the rim, get to the line at a high rate and the potential to be dominant in the PnR. Then develop the jumper later on in his career.
And yet most of the stats are "back in the day" guys that have no relevance in the modern NBA (all of the names mentioned to my recollection had rookie seasons 20+ years ago). Most are traditional centers which Bagley is clearly not. The guys that we would like Bagley to comp out to didn't make his list or if they did he hasn't shown stat comparisons. And by virtue of games and minutes played, it excludes guys who got into foul trouble while adapting to the NBA game.
But look, nobody expects Bagley to be an elite defender. They expect an elite offensive game and for him to develop an above average defense. He has never had quality coaching until he arrived at Duke, it will not be impossible for him to become a defensive plus while becoming elite on the offensive end. He has the physical gifts to develop that with good coaching and he seems to have a good work ethic and doesn't complain so there's hope.
Ty's criteria, which I do not know how far it goes back, basically says there are 35 guys that meet his selection pool, and more than a few of them are JAGs who played ok defense. And then 4 all time greats. But there are a lot of guys who were apparently filtered out from his metrics including some of the guys you named above. Or he just felt that guys like Bol and Camby are more noteworthy than other well rounded talents, including the names you mentioned who are still in the league and more desirable comps.
But look, nobody expects Bagley to be an elite defender. They expect an elite offensive game and for him to develop an above average defense. He has never had quality coaching until he arrived at Duke, it will not be impossible for him to become a defensive plus while becoming elite on the offensive end. He has the physical gifts to develop that with good coaching and he seems to have a good work ethic and doesn't complain so there's hope.
Ty's criteria, which I do not know how far it goes back, basically says there are 35 guys that meet his selection pool, and more than a few of them are JAGs who played ok defense. And then 4 all time greats. But there are a lot of guys who were apparently filtered out from his metrics including some of the guys you named above. Or he just felt that guys like Bol and Camby are more noteworthy than other well rounded talents, including the names you mentioned who are still in the league and more desirable comps.
The game is so different now regarding how bigs have to operate on the perimeter - Mark Eaton wouldn’t even be playable today.
I agree that Bags defense is bad and he hasn’t shown natural instincts on that end. But he’s raw, 20, skinny, and learning a new offense, position, and defense. My opinion is that he is such a superior athlete - that normal development trends (stats) aren’t that useful - as long as he puts in the work/has the right attitude.
It would not surprise me if he became a good pick&roll defender and blocked 1.5 shots a game. It would surprise me if he became a defensive anchor.
I agree that Bags defense is bad and he hasn’t shown natural instincts on that end. But he’s raw, 20, skinny, and learning a new offense, position, and defense. My opinion is that he is such a superior athlete - that normal development trends (stats) aren’t that useful - as long as he puts in the work/has the right attitude.
It would not surprise me if he became a good pick&roll defender and blocked 1.5 shots a game. It would surprise me if he became a defensive anchor.
I'm failing to see what Bagley does or could do in today's modern NBA that makes him a franchise level guy.
Doesn't play defense let alone show any signs of ever being a defensive anchor at center
Doesn't create offense for others, doesn't willingly pass the ball in traffic once defenses converge on him
Doesn't set effective screens or roll hard to basket (and finish strong) on pick-n-rolls
Bagley needs to improve significantly in at least one of those areas above to become an effective player in the league and he needs to excel in all of them if he's going to be a quote "franchise player".
The only real potential franchise player I see on this team is De'Aaron Fox. He's the guy that has the ability to create open shots for himself and others. He's the guy that can dictate the pace and flow of a game. He's the guy that can be an initial swarming defender of opposing guards.
Doesn't play defense let alone show any signs of ever being a defensive anchor at center
Doesn't create offense for others, doesn't willingly pass the ball in traffic once defenses converge on him
Doesn't set effective screens or roll hard to basket (and finish strong) on pick-n-rolls
Bagley needs to improve significantly in at least one of those areas above to become an effective player in the league and he needs to excel in all of them if he's going to be a quote "franchise player".
The only real potential franchise player I see on this team is De'Aaron Fox. He's the guy that has the ability to create open shots for himself and others. He's the guy that can dictate the pace and flow of a game. He's the guy that can be an initial swarming defender of opposing guards.
I think it's more Amare with a jumper. Blake had great handles and playmaking for his position even in his rookie year.
I'm confident he can develop a decent shot. I'm either or on whether he can be passable on defense like KAT, Blake, Cousins and the rest of the non-dominant defensive bigs.
But the thing I most worry about is his inability or unwillingness to pass, for reasons that tyguy outlined with how a post offense works. Of all his atttributes, it's the thing I have the least confidence he'll break.
I'm confident he can develop a decent shot. I'm either or on whether he can be passable on defense like KAT, Blake, Cousins and the rest of the non-dominant defensive bigs.
But the thing I most worry about is his inability or unwillingness to pass, for reasons that tyguy outlined with how a post offense works. Of all his atttributes, it's the thing I have the least confidence he'll break.
All in context. If we are talking about a 20 year old taking minutes from a starter who has proven to be one of the best bigs in recent Kings history when it comes to defense and rebounding, then yeah I'm kind of worried. This last game Bags didn't start but he played 28 minutes to RH's 20. Those need to be reversed IMO.
There is nothing objective about anything you post as it pertains to Bagley.
You also didn’t answer my question. What are you hoping to achieve here, other than just regurgitating the same anti Bagley rhetoric over and over? Actually forget it, doesn’t matter, I should have just left it alone. Carry on.
You also didn’t answer my question. What are you hoping to achieve here, other than just regurgitating the same anti Bagley rhetoric over and over? Actually forget it, doesn’t matter, I should have just left it alone. Carry on.
- Status