I'm not a big fan of the players you included. Mejri plays 6.8mins, Chandler 12.7, Maker 13.7, Nene 13.6, Noel 14.1, Mahinimi 14.4, Noah 14.3, Zaza 14.5, Baynes 14.9, Zubac 15.6, Kornet 15.9, and Zizic 16.4.
Willie plays 28.4mins, 10 more than any of those guys on the list. Not sure it's fair to compare him to non-starters or a team's 3rd big who goes up against bench players on a small sample size. I'm going to assume the rest of the data includes these bench bigs in the data which I think will skew some of your results a bit.
Theoretically, it shouldn't skew the stat as it is supposed to control for level of competition. However, I think it is skewed for another reason. When players play less minutes, they tend to be able to exert themselves in a way that isn't sustainable over long periods of time.
I like Ed Davis, but I see him more of a PF. He would be a good 3rd big, but I don't think he can be a Willie replacement.
I tend to agree. His lack of size gives me a pause as a C.
Noel would be an interesting candidate. As you said, he lacks strength for the C position. I think he still has some potential left in him. Still only 24.
I have similar concerns with him as a I do with Davis...size. He was 206 lbs coming out of college. Willie was 242 lbs (although he was older).
Baynes is kinda washed up at this stage of his career. Not sure why people like him as much...a 3pt shooting Kosta.
A 3pt shooting Kosta is nothing to scoff at. That's a pretty darn useful player.
I really like Brook Lopez. I think he's probably the best center out of these guys. However, our team rebounding will probably very bad unless the other guys step up.
Lopez is my top option out of those guys as well. He has:
- Size (6'11.25" w/o shoes & 9'5" standing reach)
- Length (7'5.5" wingspan)
- Strength (260 lbs)
- Rim Protection (2.7 BLK per 36 min & Opponents FG% at the Rim was 53.4%)
- Floor Spacinng (37% 3PT%)
- FT% (82%)
He would easily allow Bagley to play PF due to his shooting and Bagley can obviously help with the rebounding.
The one thing that is extremely interesting about Lopez when it comes to rebounding is the team rebounding. The last 7 seasons, Lopez's team has a higher DRB% & TRB% when he is on the court vs. off the court. How does a C achieve that when he averages the following amount of rebounds per36 for the past 7 seasons...
- 5.0 DRB / 5.5 TRB
- 4.6 DRB / 6.1 TRB
- 4.6 DRB / 6.5 TRB
- 5.4 DRB / 8.4 TRB
- 5.5 DRB / 9.2 TRB
- 4.3 DRB / 6.9 TRB
- 4.9 DRB / 8.2 TRB
...he boxes out. He has a .986 % Def Box Outs (2nd among Cs who have played more than 15 games this year). Last year, he was at .934 (4th among Cs who have played more than 15 games).
Compare this to Cauley-Stein who's team has only had a higher DRB% once in his 4 seasons when he is on the court vs. off the court (last year).
Nonetheless, this list is pretty sad.. for us I think we'll end up having to "overpay" WCS because none of these FAs deserve over $10million except for Vucevic if we're being truthful. Vuc will have a competitive market. Jordan will probably get over $10mpy, but he's already 30 and not someone you want to handicap your cap for.
ehh... I just don't see a WCS upgrade. If the FO really believes in Harry, I can see them going after a cheap vet big to bridge the gap for Harry. Even then... Harry is a pretty big risk himself. Yes we're still rebuilding, but if he doesn't progress as quickly as Fox or Bagley, then we won't have the patience to wait on him. It's why I think we'll fall back on WCS. He's a safe player for us because he can bridge the gap for Harry AND be a 26 yearold average starting C. Whereas with the other players, you're looking at 30+. I'm all for upgrading the C position, but I just don't see an upgrade available through FA.........unless you want DeMarcus back.
I still haven't made my mind up on Vucevic yet, but the point I'd make is that we really shouldn't be investing that type of money in a C. Our best lineup/death lineup (in the future) likely will have Bagley at C. Why would we pay a C big bucks when they are off the floor to finish games?
Signing Lopez for $6-8 mil a year for 2-3 years would be an under the radar move that would likely pay dividends. This is really only if Cauley-Stein is not willing to take a smaller deal like that or gets offered a big deal by another team.
It's not so much about upgrading from Cauley-Stein as it is recognizing the value of the C position vs. the perimeter and recognizing that our best lineup in the future will likely have Bagley playing C.