Michael Porter Jr

[Joshoua]

Because Bagley isnt a shooter so in order to have an efficent offense, he probably has to be a center. He also does his damage close to the rim so having a non shooting big on the floor with him would drop his effectiveness.

And center is a position where you usually have to be a good defender in order to be valuable. Centers get put in a lot of pick n rolls, are asked to protect the rim ect so its very important you can defend in those situations.

Also big men in general havent been the most valuable offensive players in the league. Big men often dont create as much for others, and when they create for themselves its more often a post up situation (which is generally very low value shot).

As a big man being a scorer is not that important and its probably even more important that you are a good defender. Or atleast the defensive shortcomings of bigs are exposed a lot more than wings or guards. And that drops their overall value a lot if you have those shortcomings.

If you try to play him as a power forward, just imagine a situation where Bogdanovic has the ball and defense is sagging off from Fox, the Center and Bagley. Thats very low efficent offense.

Bagley shot mechanics are really good and he allegedly has a great work ethic. Shooting is probably the easiest skill to improve on and when you add all that to the fact the he shot it at Duke I believe he’ll develop a resposhot.

I believe Bagley will create more for others than porter porter doesn’t pass.

A lineup of Fox-Buddy-Bogdan-Bagley-Giles spacing would be alright as long as Bagley becomes a decent shooter. With buddy and Bogdan that’s 2 elite shooters

 

[Gguod]

Bagley shot mechanics are really good and he allegedly has a great work ethic. Shooting is probably the easiest skill to improve on and when you add all that to the fact the he shot it at Duke I believe he’ll develop a resposhot.

I believe Bagley will create more for others than porter porter doesn’t pass.

A lineup of Fox-Buddy-Bogdan-Bagley-Giles spacing would be alright as long as Bagley becomes a decent shooter. With buddy and Bogdan that’s 2 elite shooters

He shot very few jumpshots in college and only 62% free throws. Ft % usually predicts shooting ability in the Nba pretty well. Thus far there is no evidence Bagley will become a floor spacer and personally I wouldnt bet on that happening, 62% from the line is just quite bad. Year ago even Fox had those draftexpress videos where he hit a lot of threes in shootaround but even with his ok form it didnt translate to the Nba at all.

IF he manages to develope a good three point shot and the ability to be a passable switch defender, he will be a productive 4/5. If not, using #2 on him would be just bad and I dont want my draft succes with #2 pick, and the future of the franchise depending on Bagley developing a good 3point shot

 

[KingsFanSince85]

I really believe jjj is the safest player in this draft. What will hold him back? Worst case he's Myles Turner... Best case he's Anthony Davis. He has just as much upside as anyone without the downside. He checks every box... Length, athleticism, shooting, defense. Still holding out hope he ends up a king but I realize it doesn't seem likely.

You may very well be right when all is said and done. But judging on what we've actually seen thus far, I don't see how you say he's the safest pick. He had numerous non-impactful games. His PT was also often limited due to various reasons.

I do like his potential as a 2-way stud, for sure. But among the top 6-7 guys, his name is the one I've heard mentioned most when the TV/radio pundits are asked which player has the highest risk of busting. While they may all be wrong, that tells me that there are lots of questions surrounding his game.

Like Porter, he's a high risk, high reward type player. But I'd certainly prefer taking him over Porter at this point. He's less risky since he has no injury history.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

If medical physicians the NBA teams trust say that MPJs back is fine, then is his back really an issue? If teams pass and he becomes a star, can those GMs who passed say yeah, but his back...... when there is no medical evidence his back is a problem.

There is medical evidence. He just had freaking surgery for a 2-year problem. While he may be ok for now, that doesn't mean problems won't flair up in the future. And if/when they do, the team that took him will look back and kick themselves knowing that the signs were there but decided to take the 'ignore it and it will go away' approach.

I don't think you can kick yourself for passing on him knowing the medical concerns. But you can really kick yourself if the risk doesn't work out.

 

[Hoovtrain]

I seriously doubt if any GMs will be called to task for passing on Porter IF he becomes a star. There was no medical evidence to indicate Chris Webber was going to collapse in a heap. Things happen when you least expect them. When there have been as many flags about Porter (remember he couldn't get out of bed the other morning) being prudcent is not going to cost you your job. On the other hand, picking him and then having him not be able to play just might.

Funny story (not haha funny) about the Webber reference. I had a woman I went to for masssge therapy after I graduated college. . This was during the 2000 semifinal series against LA. She also used to work on Pete Youngman (almost positive that’s who it was. But it was def someone on the training staff) She point blank tells me (and I can’t recall if she told me at the time that this was directly from Pete, but I think it did) that Webber’s knee was a ticking time bomb and it wasn’t if, but rather when it was going to give out. Luckily he had a couple more excellent seasons, but I will always remember her telling me that and thinking about her when the knee gave out 2 years later :-(

 

[burekijogurt]

I have Porter Jr 4th overall on my Kings draft board. I'm not really an advocate for him at #2, but this is why I would be perfectly fine with the pick assuming the FO is 100% comfortable with his back. I am confident in their medical team. I mentioned a bit ago that I think Harry Giles will play a huge role in whether or not they'll pick MPJ. The Kings have already taken in an injured-ridden player. They've gone through all the motions with him. MPJ's back is not as bad as Giles' knees are, but they would know exactly what to expect when dealing with MPJ. Is this a risk they want to take? Is this something they're comfortable with handling? Here is his surgery explained by a surgeon who has a very positive outlook on it. Getting past all this, let's talk framework.

MPJ measured at nearly 6'11 with a 7'0.25 wingspan and 9'.05" standing reach. Exceptional size for a SF, and good for a PF. He's lighter at 211lbs, but part of that is due to his Microdiscectomy. Because of his surgery and recovery period, he wasn't able to add strength throughout his freshman year. Lots of people question his defensive stance and bend. He's very upright and doesn't get low enough despite his agility. MPJ says he injured his back during his sophomore year of HS going up for a dunk where he landed on it. It just built up over time(as mentioned in the article). Since then, he's always had some discomfort in his back and as a result, he claims that's the reason for his upright defensive stance. I've heard a lot of nonsense with people questioning his athleticism. Would an athletic player be able to do this or dunk from near the FT line? You'll see more clips of his explosiveness below. Well let's get to his offensive potential which is the biggest reason why the Kings could be considering him at #2.

Shooting Ability (click the links)
He's 6'11 with a beautiful stroke. The arc and touch is very good. It's the most appealing skillset from him. He can be a legitimate PnP threat.
-catch and shoot 3pt
-Highly contested 3pt shot
-Highly contested 3pt shot
-PnP 3pt
-PnP 3pt

Shooting Variety
He's comfortable in getting off his shots in a variety of ways as shown below
-Pull up 3
-Hang dribble 3, very rare dribble for a player his size. He's able to create separation quite well on his 3pt shots
-Pull back 3
-Can use a series of jabs and headfakes for 3pt shot
(I didn't provide a clip, but he shows a developing post fade away shot)

Ball Handling,
His ball handling is a work in progress right now. He prefers the baseline drive, but I think he explodes decent for his size. Needs to improvement, but flashes the necessary potential
https://streamable.com/qdrkp
https://streamable.com/aiw67
https://streamable.com/p7ber

Transition
MPJ excels in transition. He runs the floor very well in the open court and understands situations
-Explosive transition dunk
-Runs very well without the ball
-Go-ahead dunk
-Transition lob
-Transition dunk

Transition Ball Handler, despite his developing handles in the half-court, MPJ is a very comfortable ball handler in the open court.
-Full-court attack with an explosive finish
-Full-court attack
-Handles the ball in transition gets inside, and kicks it out to a 3pt shooter
-Grabs the ball in transition and passes it ahead
-Gets the steal and attacks ahead

Off-ball movements, contrary to popular belief, MPJ does NOT need the ball in his hands to be effective. He moves well without the ball and finds ways to put it inside the basket.
-Off-ball cut inside
-Off-ball cut inside
-Cut along the baseline
-Moves well during the in-bound to get a catch n shoot

Offense board crashes, he's not the most physical player, but he does a nice job attacking the glass when he's in position
-Put back dunk
-Follow up dunk
-Tip-in

You have an athletic 6'11 SF/PF with amazing scoring instincts. He can shoot the ball in almost every situation. He finds ways to create space despite his lack of advanced handles. Contrary to popular belief, he does not need the ball in his hands to score. He finds ways to get open whether through PnP, running off screens, or cutting inside. He's a lob threat due to his vertical. He also does a solid job attacking the offensive glass when he's in position to. He's a big threat in transition whether it's running with with a full head of steam, or running the transition itself. His ball handling is a work in progress, but give me another 19/20yearold 6'11 Forward who can run a fast break the way Michael can. Or another 6'11 Forward who can create space for his jumpshot the way Michael can. On top of all of this, he's a very good shooter. He's got a great scoring mentality and never gets fazed. Full confidence in himself. He might not be the most vocal or emotional player on the court, but he knows he doesn't have to be because his game speaks for himself. That's just the type of confidence he has, similar to KD in that sense.

The only people who are disappointed in MPJ as a healthy prospect are the ones who have not seen him at all, and they automatically expect him to be a Paul George "do it all" type of SF. So when they have this idea of Paul George in their heads, they get disappointed when they see MPJ. That's just not the type of SF he is. It's like having never watched Buddy Hield, but thinking he is comparable to James Harden. THEN being disappointed at Hield for playing nothing like Harden. I thought DX did a great job in their draft breakdown on him where they basically showed what type of player he was.

MPJ's talent is undeniable. Again, 6'11 SFs with good athleticism, good shooting, and good scoring instincts just don't grow on trees. His skillset and entire frameowrk is why he was considered the #1 prospect before the start of the season. This is why you continually have teams like the Kings, Grizzlies, Dallas, Bulls, and Knicks all interested in him.

Well, I guess I can bookmark this to re-read if we do end up drafting MPJ to calm the nerves and start putting myself into the lets give him a chance and hope he really is the man mode..

 

[KingsFanSince85]

She point blank tells me (and I can’t recall if she told me at the time that this was directly from Pete, but I think it did) that Webber’s knee was a ticking time bomb and it wasn’t if, but rather when it was going to give out. Luckily he had a couple more excellent seasons, but I will always remember her telling me that and thinking about her when the knee gave out 2 years later :-(

What would be interesting to know is what she was basing the prediction on. If Youngman or someone else on the staff had indications that something was wrong, Webber's minutes should have been managed a lot differently than they were.

 

[Hoovtrain]

What would be interesting to know is what she was basing the prediction on. If Youngman or someone else on the staff had indications that something was wrong, Webber's minutes should have been managed a lot differently than they were.

And don’t hold me to it being Youngman lol (sorry was a long time ago). But from my recollection her “prediction” was more of her relaying to me what that medical staff member had told her. I won’t speculate on what that was based off of though.
Agree on your minutes comment. I’m actually going to go back and look at his minutes

 

[Hoovtrain]

What would be interesting to know is what she was basing the prediction on. If Youngman or someone else on the staff had indications that something was wrong, Webber's minutes should have been managed a lot differently than they were.

Looks like around 38-40 min during this healthy span. So doesn’t appear to be much of a minute restriction . Odd

 

[Kingster]

I have Porter Jr 4th overall on my Kings draft board. I'm not really an advocate for him at #2, but this is why I would be perfectly fine with the pick assuming the FO is 100% comfortable with his back. I am confident in their medical team. I mentioned a bit ago that I think Harry Giles will play a huge role in whether or not they'll pick MPJ. The Kings have already taken in an injured-ridden player. They've gone through all the motions with him. MPJ's back is not as bad as Giles' knees are, but they would know exactly what to expect when dealing with MPJ. Is this a risk they want to take? Is this something they're comfortable with handling? Here is his surgery explained by a surgeon who has a very positive outlook on it. Getting past all this, let's talk framework.

MPJ measured at nearly 6'11 with a 7'0.25 wingspan and 9'.05" standing reach. Exceptional size for a SF, and good for a PF. He's lighter at 211lbs, but part of that is due to his Microdiscectomy. Because of his surgery and recovery period, he wasn't able to add strength throughout his freshman year. Lots of people question his defensive stance and bend. He's very upright and doesn't get low enough despite his agility. MPJ says he injured his back during his sophomore year of HS going up for a dunk where he landed on it. It just built up over time(as mentioned in the article). Since then, he's always had some discomfort in his back and as a result, he claims that's the reason for his upright defensive stance. I've heard a lot of nonsense with people questioning his athleticism. Would an athletic player be able to do this or dunk from near the FT line? You'll see more clips of his explosiveness below. Well let's get to his offensive potential which is the biggest reason why the Kings could be considering him at #2.

Shooting Ability (click the links)
He's 6'11 with a beautiful stroke. The arc and touch is very good. It's the most appealing skillset from him. He can be a legitimate PnP threat.
-catch and shoot 3pt
-Highly contested 3pt shot
-Highly contested 3pt shot
-PnP 3pt
-PnP 3pt

Shooting Variety
He's comfortable in getting off his shots in a variety of ways as shown below
-Pull up 3
-Hang dribble 3, very rare dribble for a player his size. He's able to create separation quite well on his 3pt shots
-Pull back 3
-Can use a series of jabs and headfakes for 3pt shot
(I didn't provide a clip, but he shows a developing post fade away shot)

Ball Handling,
His ball handling is a work in progress right now. He prefers the baseline drive, but I think he explodes decent for his size. Needs to improvement, but flashes the necessary potential
https://streamable.com/qdrkp
https://streamable.com/aiw67
https://streamable.com/p7ber

Transition
MPJ excels in transition. He runs the floor very well in the open court and understands situations
-Explosive transition dunk
-Runs very well without the ball
-Go-ahead dunk
-Transition lob
-Transition dunk

Transition Ball Handler, despite his developing handles in the half-court, MPJ is a very comfortable ball handler in the open court.
-Full-court attack with an explosive finish
-Full-court attack
-Handles the ball in transition gets inside, and kicks it out to a 3pt shooter
-Grabs the ball in transition and passes it ahead
-Gets the steal and attacks ahead

Off-ball movements, contrary to popular belief, MPJ does NOT need the ball in his hands to be effective. He moves well without the ball and finds ways to put it inside the basket.
-Off-ball cut inside
-Off-ball cut inside
-Cut along the baseline
-Moves well during the in-bound to get a catch n shoot

Offense board crashes, he's not the most physical player, but he does a nice job attacking the glass when he's in position
-Put back dunk
-Follow up dunk
-Tip-in

You have an athletic 6'11 SF/PF with amazing scoring instincts. He can shoot the ball in almost every situation. He finds ways to create space despite his lack of advanced handles. Contrary to popular belief, he does not need the ball in his hands to score. He finds ways to get open whether through PnP, running off screens, or cutting inside. He's a lob threat due to his vertical. He also does a solid job attacking the offensive glass when he's in position to. He's a big threat in transition whether it's running with with a full head of steam, or running the transition itself. His ball handling is a work in progress, but give me another 19/20yearold 6'11 Forward who can run a fast break the way Michael can. Or another 6'11 Forward who can create space for his jumpshot the way Michael can. On top of all of this, he's a very good shooter. He's got a great scoring mentality and never gets fazed. Full confidence in himself. He might not be the most vocal or emotional player on the court, but he knows he doesn't have to be because his game speaks for himself. That's just the type of confidence he has, similar to KD in that sense.

The only people who are disappointed in MPJ as a healthy prospect are the ones who have not seen him at all, and they automatically expect him to be a Paul George "do it all" type of SF. So when they have this idea of Paul George in their heads, they get disappointed when they see MPJ. That's just not the type of SF he is. It's like having never watched Buddy Hield, but thinking he is comparable to James Harden. THEN being disappointed at Hield for playing nothing like Harden. I thought DX did a great job in their draft breakdown on him where they basically showed what type of player he was.

MPJ's talent is undeniable. Again, 6'11 SFs with good athleticism, good shooting, and good scoring instincts just don't grow on trees. His skillset and entire frameowrk is why he was considered the #1 prospect before the start of the season. This is why you continually have teams like the Kings, Grizzlies, Dallas, Bulls, and Knicks all interested in him.

That's some kind of analysis. I don't think I've ever seen that kind of researched analysis of any player ever on this board. Thanks for the work.

 

[ockingsfan]

I seriously doubt if any GMs will be called to task for passing on Porter IF he becomes a star. There was no medical evidence to indicate Chris Webber was going to collapse in a heap. Things happen when you least expect them. When there have been as many flags about Porter (remember he couldn't get out of bed the other morning) being prudcent is not going to cost you your job. On the other hand, picking him and then having him not be able to play just might.

The funny thing is, if Vlade hadn't traded away the 2019 unprotected 1st round pick, I think that if the Porter rumors were true, that Vlade would be more likely to to take the risk of taking MPJ #2. Reason being, if MPJ can't play next year because of his back, he would have a high lotto pick to fall back on in 2019.

The way things stand now, without our 2019 1st round pick, I don't think the Kings can take the risk that MPJ will not be healthy enough to play. If our #2 pick is not healthy or good enough to play next year, we are going to be giving up a top 5 pick to Boston next summer. We need our #2 pick to be healthy and a solid contributor next year.

I think it will be Doncic or Bagley at #2 or a trade down to 4 or 5, if the Kings really want MPJ on Thursday.

 

[MissouriPorterJr]

I'm well aware of the last time we were in the playoffs, thank you very much. You guys, as the top seed, lost to the Warriors and have failed every year to get past them so I wouldn't be strutting around quite so much if I were you.

2014-15 Lost in Conference finals (1-4) to Warriors
2015-16 Lost in First Round (1-4) to Warriors
2017-18 Lost in Conference finals (3-4) to Warriors

Get back to me when your team finally gets past them once and I MIGHT reconsider.

I’m not here to debate about the rockets lol. I like where we are at though.

 

[bajaden]

I wholeheartedly agree with the bolded statement. Buddy was the most improved player on the Kings last year, bar none. And I really think next year he could take even another step upward. Who had more grit than Hield last year? He rebounded for a guard, got into it on defense, just what you want from a 2-guard.

As far as the team defense thing, staying in front of one's man is primary. If you can't do that pretty well you can have all the team defense in the world and it's not going to make a difference. You need both, but you aren't going to take a bunch of mediocre defensive talents and make them into a very good defensive team no matter how much team defense they play. If you have a couple of mediocre athletic defensive talents on your team you better have three other players that can offset their weaknesses somewhat.

Carter has the athletic ability to stay in front of his man better than most; ergo, he's not unathletic when it comes to defense. Wiggins has all the tools to be All-World on defense; he's one of the great underachievers in this league on the defensive end; it's all between the ears or in the heart area with him.

Didn't say that Carter was un-athletic, but that he's not an elite athlete. In a foot race with Fox he'd lose big time. But Fox would struggle getting past him off the dribble without a screen. Carter does have elite lateral quickness, and instincts. Most teams try and break down the other teams defense by getting mismatches, and they do that for the most part by setting picks and running the basic pick and roll. Where team defense comes in is how you adjust to those situations. Whether your able to stop the ball without giving up an easy basket. That requires crisp switches and recovery.

Unfortunately that doesn't happen overnight. Especially with young players, that in many cases have never been asked to play one iota of defense until they got to the NBA. AAU basketball isn't big on defense, and in college almost half the teams play a zone, at least part of the time, if not all of the time. To make matters worse, they don't run the pick and roll nearly as much in college, because of the zone, and because you can leave a big man under the basket all the time without penalty. Hard to learn how to defend something if it's not being run.

 

[206Fan]

That's some kind of analysis. I don't think I've ever seen that can of researched analysis of any player ever on this board. Thanks for the work.

Thanks. I don't do them often at all, but I saw that there's a lot of negativity around MPJ. Many who don't see why he should be considered as the #2 overall prospect. Those clips should alleviate some fears about him.

I love draft time and evaluating prospects. I think it has something to do with the Kings always being in the lottery lol

 

[bajaden]

I have Porter Jr 4th overall on my Kings draft board. I'm not really an advocate for him at #2, but this is why I would be perfectly fine with the pick assuming the FO is 100% comfortable with his back. I am confident in their medical team. I mentioned a bit ago that I think Harry Giles will play a huge role in whether or not they'll pick MPJ. The Kings have already taken in an injured-ridden player. They've gone through all the motions with him. MPJ's back is not as bad as Giles' knees are, but they would know exactly what to expect when dealing with MPJ. Is this a risk they want to take? Is this something they're comfortable with handling? Here is his surgery explained by a surgeon who has a very positive outlook on it. Getting past all this, let's talk framework.

MPJ measured at nearly 6'11 with a 7'0.25 wingspan and 9'.05" standing reach. Exceptional size for a SF, and good for a PF. He's lighter at 211lbs, but part of that is due to his Microdiscectomy. Because of his surgery and recovery period, he wasn't able to add strength throughout his freshman year. Lots of people question his defensive stance and bend. He's very upright and doesn't get low enough despite his agility. MPJ says he injured his back during his sophomore year of HS going up for a dunk where he landed on it. It just built up over time(as mentioned in the article). Since then, he's always had some discomfort in his back and as a result, he claims that's the reason for his upright defensive stance. I've heard a lot of nonsense with people questioning his athleticism. Would an athletic player be able to do this or dunk from near the FT line? You'll see more clips of his explosiveness below. Well let's get to his offensive potential which is the biggest reason why the Kings could be considering him at #2.

Shooting Ability (click the links)
He's 6'11 with a beautiful stroke. The arc and touch is very good. It's the most appealing skillset from him. He can be a legitimate PnP threat.
-catch and shoot 3pt
-Highly contested 3pt shot
-Highly contested 3pt shot
-PnP 3pt
-PnP 3pt

Shooting Variety
He's comfortable in getting off his shots in a variety of ways as shown below
-Pull up 3
-Hang dribble 3, very rare dribble for a player his size. He's able to create separation quite well on his 3pt shots
-Pull back 3
-Can use a series of jabs and headfakes for 3pt shot
(I didn't provide a clip, but he shows a developing post fade away shot)

Ball Handling,
His ball handling is a work in progress right now. He prefers the baseline drive, but I think he explodes decent for his size. Needs to improvement, but flashes the necessary potential
https://streamable.com/qdrkp
https://streamable.com/aiw67
https://streamable.com/p7ber

Transition
MPJ excels in transition. He runs the floor very well in the open court and understands situations
-Explosive transition dunk
-Runs very well without the ball
-Go-ahead dunk
-Transition lob
-Transition dunk

Transition Ball Handler, despite his developing handles in the half-court, MPJ is a very comfortable ball handler in the open court.
-Full-court attack with an explosive finish
-Full-court attack
-Handles the ball in transition gets inside, and kicks it out to a 3pt shooter
-Grabs the ball in transition and passes it ahead
-Gets the steal and attacks ahead

Off-ball movements, contrary to popular belief, MPJ does NOT need the ball in his hands to be effective. He moves well without the ball and finds ways to put it inside the basket.
-Off-ball cut inside
-Off-ball cut inside
-Cut along the baseline
-Moves well during the in-bound to get a catch n shoot

Offense board crashes, he's not the most physical player, but he does a nice job attacking the glass when he's in position
-Put back dunk
-Follow up dunk
-Tip-in

You have an athletic 6'11 SF/PF with amazing scoring instincts. He can shoot the ball in almost every situation. He finds ways to create space despite his lack of advanced handles. Contrary to popular belief, he does not need the ball in his hands to score. He finds ways to get open whether through PnP, running off screens, or cutting inside. He's a lob threat due to his vertical. He also does a solid job attacking the offensive glass when he's in position to. He's a big threat in transition whether it's running with with a full head of steam, or running the transition itself. His ball handling is a work in progress, but give me another 19/20yearold 6'11 Forward who can run a fast break the way Michael can. Or another 6'11 Forward who can create space for his jumpshot the way Michael can. On top of all of this, he's a very good shooter. He's got a great scoring mentality and never gets fazed. Full confidence in himself. He might not be the most vocal or emotional player on the court, but he knows he doesn't have to be because his game speaks for himself. That's just the type of confidence he has, similar to KD in that sense.

The only people who are disappointed in MPJ as a healthy prospect are the ones who have not seen him at all, and they automatically expect him to be a Paul George "do it all" type of SF. So when they have this idea of Paul George in their heads, they get disappointed when they see MPJ. That's just not the type of SF he is. It's like having never watched Buddy Hield, but thinking he is comparable to James Harden. THEN being disappointed at Hield for playing nothing like Harden. I thought DX did a great job in their draft breakdown on him where they basically showed what type of player he was.

MPJ's talent is undeniable. Again, 6'11 SFs with good athleticism, good shooting, and good scoring instincts just don't grow on trees. His skillset and entire frameowrk is why he was considered the #1 prospect before the start of the season. This is why you continually have teams like the Kings, Grizzlies, Dallas, Bulls, and Knicks all interested in him.

Hey, we are in agreement! My only concern with Porter is his health. I have zero concerns about his abilities. He's one of the few players in this draft that has superstar gene's flowing out of him. There are those that do, and those that hope they do. Porter is in the former. I'll just have to trust Vlade and company to make the right decision. If their doctors give him a clean bill of health, then I'm fine with choosing him.

 

[VF21]

Bottom line about Porter? There is a 10% chance he will have future problems with his back. The only question is do you take that chance?

 

[gunks]

Bottom line about Porter? There is a 10% chance he will have future problems with his back. The only question is do you take that chance?

Heck no! Giles' knees are scary enough, thank you very much!

 

[VF21]

Heck no! Giles' knees are scary enough, thank you very much!

That's my thought. Vlade has to get this pick right. Whomever he chooses has to work out and has to help this team continue to progress. You can't do that with a guy who can't get out of bed in the morning because he overdid conditioning (or whatever the explanation/excuse was).

 

[funkykingston]

Bottom line about Porter? There is a 10% chance he will have future problems with his back. The only question is do you take that chance?

I'm not in favor of gambling on Porter but to be fair, if the injury reoccurred it would likely require the same outpatient procedure (microdiscectomy) that Porter underwent already.

It's significant and would mean a lot of missed games (especially as he gets older and recovery is slower) but not as risky IMO as gambling on a kid with an ACL tear, especially a non-contact one.

That's my thought. Vlade has to get this pick right. Whomever he chooses has to work out and has to help this team continue to progress. You can't do that with a guy who can't get out of bed in the morning because he overdid conditioning (or whatever the explanation/excuse was).

Again, this isn't uncommon for a guy rehabbing from back surgery, especially if it's high level conditioning work. His body is likely compensating.

I don't want Porter at 2 but if the Kings were onboard with him before, some hip spasms resulting from working to get back to full strength aren't going to be what scares them off.

 

[VF21]

Posts about trading for the 4th pick have been moved to the Personnel Moves forum.

 

[ockingsfan]

Hey, we are in agreement! My only concern with Porter is his health. I have zero concerns about his abilities. He's one of the few players in this draft that has superstar gene's flowing out of him. There are those that do, and those that hope they do. Porter is in the former. I'll just have to trust Vlade and company to make the right decision. If their doctors give him a clean bill of health, then I'm fine with choosing him.

I agree that MPJ probably has the highest chance of being an alpha scorer out of this draft.

Question for me has always been his health. I don't know how I feel after the lastest "hip spasm" episode.

If the Kings can get him in for a private workout before the draft, which shows he would be good with the Kings taking him, I would feel better about MPJ at #2.

 

[VF21]

I'm not in favor of gambling on Porter but to be fair, if the injury reoccurred it would likely require the same outpatient procedure (microdiscectomy) that Porter underwent already.

It's significant and would mean a lot of missed games (especially as he gets older and recovery is slower) but not as risky IMO as gambling on a kid with an ACL tear, especially a non-contact one.

I posted this before, but I'll quote it again:

Though the success rate of this type of procedure is usually 90 percent or higher, there are chances for complications, which include dural tears, nerve root damage, bladder incontinence or bleeding. Most of the time, however, the operation is safe, effective, and rarely results in recurrent herniated discs.

Nerve root damage is nothing to shrug at. If the injury reoccurred it could have severe implications. All I'm saying is no back surgery is 100% guaranteed.

 

[Mass]

There are numerous ex players, scouts, coaches etc that are speaking highly of MPJ. It’s not just Roy

I remember Lebron was very high on McLemore. That didn’t turn out very well, did it?

Players are just what they are. Players. They are not scouts, GMs, talent evaluators. Just because they are good at playing this game doesn’t mean they know everything about it. That’s why not every player becomes a coach or a GM.

 

[funkykingston]

If we're purely talking about a player's best case ceiling (they wrung out every bit of potential they have) I think (my opinion only) the consensus top guys would stack up like this:

1. Mo Bamba
2. Michael Porter Jr
3. Trae Young
4. DeAndre Ayton
5. Marvin Bagley III
6. Jaren Jackson Jr
7. Luka Doncic

But in terms of their floor (if they improve just marginally from where they are today) I'd rank them as follows:

1. Luka Doncic
2. DeAndre Ayton
3. Jaren Jackson Jr
4. Marvin Bagley III
5. Mo Bamba
6. Trae Young
7. Michael Porter Jr.

That's also how I personally would rate their bust potential. This could be like the 1996 draft where all 8 players succeeded with several all-stars and a couple Hall of Fame players but odds are that 1, 2 or even 3 of them will unfortunately flame out.

Bagley and Ayton are hurt by being non-elite defensive anchors but potentially elite offensive players in positions that have been somewhat minimized in the modern NBA. But they have an instantly transferrable still in rebounding.

Porter's floor is the lowest both because of the injury risk and because he missed a full year of development and will be making a huge leap in terms of the level of competition.

The guys that the analytics community love the most (Doncic and JJJ) strike me as being ideal NBA fits but not having the highest ceiling. Both are great fits for the modern NBA and have good physical measurements but to ME both lack quick twitch movement. That could still lead Doncic to be a smaller, poor man's Larry Bird and Jackson to be a bigger Draymond if they reached their absolute peak, but Bamba as a Porzinis/Gobert hybrid or Ayton as David Robinson Redux or Trae Young as "almost Steph" or Porter as "Durant lite" have more tippy top potential.

Ayton is presumably not an option. So to me Doncic is the safe pick but with less homerun potential. Bagley has a nice mix of floor and ceiling and also seems safe. Porter seems so overly risky to me that if you're going to gamble heavy I'd take Bamba. But I think Vlade & Vivek are more offensive minded and I think Vlade believes in Giles and still has hope for WCS. I also wonder if Bamba and his agent stonewalled the Kings. That's a no no in Divac's book as he wants guys that want to be in Sacramento.

Less than a week from the draft and that's how I see things. It's also why I'm down on Porter. But again it depends on how you rank these guys' floors, their ceilings, and how much you believe in their ability to develop from where they are to their best version.

 

[funkykingston]

I posted this before, but I'll quote it again:

Nerve root damage is nothing to shrug at. If the injury reoccurred it could have severe implications. All I'm saying is no back surgery is 100% guaranteed.

I'm not a doctor but my understanding is that those complications (if they occurred) would have manifested just after surgery. In other words, they were potential complications that would have resulted FROM the procedure, not potential long term effects.

If the surgery was successful (and the rate is higher for elite athletes receiving high level care) then the big fear is the injury itself recurring.

 

[Folsomkingsfan]

I really believe jjj is the safest player in this draft. What will hold him back? Worst case he's Myles Turner... Best case he's Anthony Davis. He has just as much upside as anyone without the downside. He checks every box... Length, athleticism, shooting, defense. Still holding out hope he ends up a king but I realize it doesn't seem likely.

Jjj floor is much lower than Myles Turner. If that were that case this dude would be the number 1 player on every draft board.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

I have zero concerns about his abilities. He's one of the few players in this draft that has superstar gene's flowing out of him.

Since I respect your evaluations on players, can you re-hash or point/link me to your analysis of him? I'm not finding an easy way to search for it.

I've just not been able to find any evidence to support what you're saying here. I see poor handles and a guy that's more of a jumpshooter than anything else. He doesn't seem tough at all, nor do I see a good teammate that makes the right basketball play. Granted, we're limited to what he did in high school and AAU/All star tournaments. And I'm not saying he CAN'T do those things, I've just not been able to see much of it in order to boost my confidence. I believe it was @funkykingston that sorta stated the same thing earlier this week (if I'm wrong, my apology).

 

[ockingsfan]

If we're purely talking about a player's best case ceiling (they wrung out every bit of potential they have) I think (my opinion only) the consensus top guys would stack up like this:

1. Mo Bamba
2. Michael Porter Jr
3. Trae Young
4. DeAndre Ayton
5. Marvin Bagley III
6. Jaren Jackson Jr
7. Luka Doncic

But in terms of their floor (if they improve just marginally from where they are today) I'd rank them as follows:

1. Luka Doncic
2. DeAndre Ayton
3. Jaren Jackson Jr
4. Marvin Bagley III
5. Mo Bamba
6. Trae Young
7. Michael Porter Jr.

That's also how I personally would rate their bust potential. This could be like the 1996 draft where all 8 players succeeded with several all-stars and a couple Hall of Fame players but odds are that 1, 2 or even 3 of them will unfortunately flame out.

Bagley and Ayton are hurt by being non-elite defensive anchors but potentially elite offensive players in positions that have been somewhat minimized in the modern NBA. But they have an instantly transferrable still in rebounding.

Porter's floor is the lowest both because of the injury risk and because he missed a full year of development and will be making a huge leap in terms of the level of competition.

The guys that the analytics community love the most (Doncic and JJJ) strike me as being ideal NBA fits but not having the highest ceiling. Both are great fits for the modern NBA and have good physical measurements but to ME both lack quick twitch movement. That could still lead Doncic to be a smaller, poor man's Larry Bird and Jackson to be a bigger Draymond if they reached their absolute peak, but Bamba as a Porzinis/Gobert hybrid or Ayton as David Robinson Redux or Trae Young as "almost Steph" or Porter as "Durant lite" have more tippy top potential.

Ayton is presumably not an option. So to me Doncic is the safe pick but with less homerun potential. Bagley has a nice mix of floor and ceiling and also seems safe. Porter seems so overly risky to me that if you're going to gamble heavy I'd take Bamba. But I think Vlade & Vivek are more offensive minded and I think Vlade believes in Giles and still has hope for WCS. I also wonder if Bamba and his agent stonewalled the Kings. That's a no no in Divac's book as he wants guys that want to be in Sacramento.

Less than a week from the draft and that's how I see things. It's also why I'm down on Porter. But again it depends on how you rank these guys' floors, their ceilings, and how much you believe in their ability to develop from where they are to their best version.

Good analysis.

But I would put Doncic's absolute ceiling higher up on the rankings. And drop down Trae Young's ceiling down.

I think Doncic absolute ceiling would be about 3rd or 4th on the "top ceiling" (Behind Bamba, MPJ and Ayton) list. If he turns into a Larry Bird clone, he would wind up #1 or 2.

 

[ESP47]

Thanks. I don't do them often at all, but I saw that there's a lot of negativity around MPJ. Many who don't see why he should be considered as the #2 overall prospect. Those clips should alleviate some fears about him.

I love draft time and evaluating prospects. I think it has something to do with the Kings always being in the lottery lol

I don't agree with your analysis but I gave you a like based on the good read and effort put into it

 

[funkykingston]

Good analysis.

But I would put Doncic's absolute ceiling higher up on the rankings. And drop down Trae Young's ceiling down.

I think Doncic absolute ceiling would be about 3rd or 4th on the "top ceiling" (Behind Bamba, MPJ and Ayton) list. If he turns into a Larry Bird clone, he would wind up #1 or 2.

And you could be completely right. That's the tough part of trying to project these kids.

I like Doncic a lot. I've gone back and forth with he and Bagley as my favorite prospect. Whatever his ceiling is I think he's likely to reach most of his potential simply because I believe he has that kind of passion for the game and because he's always played with bigger/stronger players and found a way to succeed.

I don't see him elevating to the level of a superstar or all-NBA level player but maybe I'm wrong.