Marvin Bagley III
- Thread starter jcassio
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I know Andy, he's normally a good stats guy and has some interesting stuff he posts, but this one was flat out dumb. The only reason you post something like "Bagley BPM is equal to Ben!" while "JJJ is equal to Joel Embiid!" is to push a narrative. There's just literally no correlation in any of what he posted, which is odd for a guy who does understand numbers pretty well.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23771351/espn-draft-analytics-model-makes-nba-draft-projections
ESPN with a model that picks Bagley as #1. What's interesting about this model is it uses aau stats as well as college.
ESPN with a model that picks Bagley as #1. What's interesting about this model is it uses aau stats as well as college.
I want so much to like Bagley. I have always seen him as being exactly the type player I like with lots of athletic ability and a great motor but it just seems he is missing so much on the defensive end and I am not sure he has the bbiq to learn it. I have said in another post i was afraid he will be a bust. I think he will be in the league for years but never one of your top 3 on a team that is any good. To me at pick #2 that is a bust. If the pick is Bagley I hope I am wrong
I feel pretty much the same way. Amare is the only really good player I can think of that reminds a bit of Bagley. Guys like Beasely also come to mind. Or Faried. What's he gonna do year one besides be a garbage man on offense? And if that's all he is offensively while being a liability on defense that's a really bad player. I'm just talking about him as a rookie here but I think he's gonna get off to a rough start. Where he goes from there I don't know but I'd rather take someone that has more immediate positives with just as much long term upside.
With Bagley, I think cleaningtheglass.com (subscriber) has the best in-depth analysis of his game beside the great video from Mike Schmitz. Ben Falk has a very easy-to-understand "can't/won't/doesn't know how" framework in evaluating players, where "can't" = physical/athletic limitations, "won't" = motor or effort limitations (coachable) and "doesn't know how" = skill or BBIQ related, again, teachable.
Some highlights:
Both are risky bets, IMO, as his shot will take some time given his poor FT % is an indicator that his good 3P% won't immediately transfer to the NBA (see Justice Winslow, Josh Jackson). Alternatively/additionally, you bet on his mind - that he'll learn better awareness and technique to overcome his lack of mass and wingspan - but he'll continue to have league-bottom block and steal rates (see Kanter, Enes).
Let's just say this: I'll feel very bad for any team in the top 8 who picks Bagley. Due to his mostly unfixable limitations, he will likely end up as an energy guy off the bench or a fringe starter on a good team.
Some highlights:
- "There’s a lot of 'doesn’t know how' in what we see with Bagley... a lack of awareness and technique" (fixable)
- "Bagley’s defensive effort also appears fairly strong, so there’s not a ton of 'won’t'."
- "The biggest concern with Bagley’s defensive struggles, though, is that they might fall mostly in the 'can’t' bucket." (not fixable - physical limitations)
- "It comes down to this, then: a bet on Bagley is a bet on his shot or his mind."
Both are risky bets, IMO, as his shot will take some time given his poor FT % is an indicator that his good 3P% won't immediately transfer to the NBA (see Justice Winslow, Josh Jackson). Alternatively/additionally, you bet on his mind - that he'll learn better awareness and technique to overcome his lack of mass and wingspan - but he'll continue to have league-bottom block and steal rates (see Kanter, Enes).
Let's just say this: I'll feel very bad for any team in the top 8 who picks Bagley. Due to his mostly unfixable limitations, he will likely end up as an energy guy off the bench or a fringe starter on a good team.
I'm seeing the same thing things as you guys are and I think going #2 for Bagley is too high. I think he'll be a solid pro but I don't see how he makes anybody better or does anything spectacular. Even if he ends up being an 18 & 10 guy is he really going to help you win or just put up good numbers? We've seen many power forwards over the last several years that can get you 20/10 but if they don't help create shots for others and play stellar defense all they do is put up numbers on bad teams in a wing oriented league.
Bagley has a high motor and is very athletic but he's not a freak athlete. He has some elements of Amare Stoudemire to him, but prime Amare at 19-22 was a freak athlete with ferocious explosion to his athleticism. I don't quite see that with Bagley, excellent athlete and very explosive but not freakish explosive. Watch some YouTube videos of both and you'll see the difference.
He also doesn't possess the size and combination of skills that guys like Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid possess. It appears that Ayton has that body and those skills and as such he's probably going #1. Ayton probably has more of a chance of being a bust too but the ceiling is much higher.
With all that said who knows maybe Bagley develops some court vision and defensive anticipation and becomes a star player but right now I'd rather have Luka who can make his teammates better or gamble on Bamba who has potential to be a superstar.
Bagley has a high motor and is very athletic but he's not a freak athlete. He has some elements of Amare Stoudemire to him, but prime Amare at 19-22 was a freak athlete with ferocious explosion to his athleticism. I don't quite see that with Bagley, excellent athlete and very explosive but not freakish explosive. Watch some YouTube videos of both and you'll see the difference.
He also doesn't possess the size and combination of skills that guys like Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid possess. It appears that Ayton has that body and those skills and as such he's probably going #1. Ayton probably has more of a chance of being a bust too but the ceiling is much higher.
With all that said who knows maybe Bagley develops some court vision and defensive anticipation and becomes a star player but right now I'd rather have Luka who can make his teammates better or gamble on Bamba who has potential to be a superstar.
I think people are selling Bagley pretty short offensively. His defensive problems are warranted but this guy is so far and above guys like Faried, it isn't even funny.
He's not going to just be a garbage man on offense. He has an arsenal of post moves. The only negative is his reliance on his left hand. He also has an emerging shot as well. The garbage aspect of his game is just a plus. It's like imagine WCS being able to do everything WCS does offensively, except he gets an extra 4-6 points and 2-3 rebounds a game efficiently just purely on effort. If he had the same drive that Bagley has on the court, we wouldn't be talking about needing another big man for years.
All of the guys at the top of the draft have something they're elite at. Ayton has the elite size. Doncic elite PnR. JJJ elite switching and blocking. Bamba elite blocking. Bagley has that elite first and second jump. Is it exactly what you want your top pick to be elite at? Not necessarily but at least he's elite at something, unlike MPJ.
Bagley is going to get a handful of garbage points on top of the points he earns due to his offensive skill. If he's given 30mpg next year, I wouldn't doubt it if he puts up double doubles left and right over the course of the season. Will he be a team leading winning player over the course of his career? I don't know but I can tell you that a lot of points will be scored efficiently and a lot of rebounds will be grabbed by him. He's a very safe pick as far as those numbers go.
He's not going to just be a garbage man on offense. He has an arsenal of post moves. The only negative is his reliance on his left hand. He also has an emerging shot as well. The garbage aspect of his game is just a plus. It's like imagine WCS being able to do everything WCS does offensively, except he gets an extra 4-6 points and 2-3 rebounds a game efficiently just purely on effort. If he had the same drive that Bagley has on the court, we wouldn't be talking about needing another big man for years.
All of the guys at the top of the draft have something they're elite at. Ayton has the elite size. Doncic elite PnR. JJJ elite switching and blocking. Bamba elite blocking. Bagley has that elite first and second jump. Is it exactly what you want your top pick to be elite at? Not necessarily but at least he's elite at something, unlike MPJ.
Bagley is going to get a handful of garbage points on top of the points he earns due to his offensive skill. If he's given 30mpg next year, I wouldn't doubt it if he puts up double doubles left and right over the course of the season. Will he be a team leading winning player over the course of his career? I don't know but I can tell you that a lot of points will be scored efficiently and a lot of rebounds will be grabbed by him. He's a very safe pick as far as those numbers go.
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