Luka Doncic (pre and post-draft discussion thread)
- Thread starter Kingster
- Start date
- Status
The more I watch the kid play the more I want us to pick him at number 2. I think he's miles above any of the other potential pics in terms of pure basketball IQ. I've watched a lot of videos on Bagley, Porter, and JJJ, and cannot comprehend how we would pick any of those players over Doncic. Those other players are a huge risk imo.
I'm pretty high in Doncic based on what's been shared. Honest question for those who have been following him closely though - is this a kid who's gonna be a prima donna? He's accomplished so much that I worry he's gonna come in with a very entitled attitude, which is fine if he's the next LBJ, not so much if he's Rudy Fernandez. Particularly if he doesn't come in and start playing well immediately, which is normal for a rookie. Will he take as well to Joergers tight leash?
If he falls to us, it's all your fault. Save us the misery and take him off the board. 
Being the best Euro prospect ever =/= best NBA player ever.
Ayton should be unbustable unless he has a tragic injury. I'm really not sure why you see him as a busts when he's 1000x more polished than any of the recent bigs the Suns have drafted... Len, Bender, and Chriss. Unlike them, he can actually give you production instead of small brief flashes.
Ayton should be unbustable unless he has a tragic injury. I'm really not sure why you see him as a busts when he's 1000x more polished than any of the recent bigs the Suns have drafted... Len, Bender, and Chriss. Unlike them, he can actually give you production instead of small brief flashes.
I'm not projecting Doncic to be the best NBA player ever, I see him as a more athletic and bigger version of prime Manu Ginobili and that's more than good enough for me.
I see Ayton as the 4th best prospect of this draft IF he hits his ceiling. Jonathon Givony, formerly of DraftExpress, has him ranked as the 7th ranked prospect. The Ringer, Bill Simmons new platform, doesn't have him ranked as the best prospect either. His floor is like Hasheem Thabeet.
Just being better than colossal wastes like Len, Bender and Chriss doesn't make any prospect worthy of a top 3 pick especially in a draft like this one.
He looks great physically and has great size but he's incredibly soft. I've watched most of his games for UoA and his motor is awful. He tries when he feels like it. Took advantage of a ton of weak competition for Arizona this season as well. Most of his dominant games came against players who will never play basketball after college in their lives, they wouldn't even make it in the D League.
And then there's something called defense and rim protection which Mr. Ayton is too prideful to participate in...
I see Ayton as the 4th best prospect of this draft IF he hits his ceiling. Jonathon Givony, formerly of DraftExpress, has him ranked as the 7th ranked prospect. The Ringer, Bill Simmons new platform, doesn't have him ranked as the best prospect either. His floor is like Hasheem Thabeet.
Just being better than colossal wastes like Len, Bender and Chriss doesn't make any prospect worthy of a top 3 pick especially in a draft like this one.
He looks great physically and has great size but he's incredibly soft. I've watched most of his games for UoA and his motor is awful. He tries when he feels like it. Took advantage of a ton of weak competition for Arizona this season as well. Most of his dominant games came against players who will never play basketball after college in their lives, they wouldn't even make it in the D League.
And then there's something called defense and rim protection which Mr. Ayton is too prideful to participate in...
I'm not a huge Ayton fan. I'd take Bagley or Doncic ahead of him.
I'm not fond of bigs that don't defend at a high level and while Bagley isn't a rim protector either, he's a better perimeter defender (where I think he play primarily) and he shows up in every game instead if drifting at times as Ayton tends to do.
I'm not fond of bigs that don't defend at a high level and while Bagley isn't a rim protector either, he's a better perimeter defender (where I think he play primarily) and he shows up in every game instead if drifting at times as Ayton tends to do.
I don't know how people have gotten the idea that Ayton is some kind of unathletic slug defensively. Physical tools will not be a problem. His lateral foot speed covering on the perimeter is as good or better than Jackson, Bagley, and Bamba. The issue with him is that he doesn't always put in the effort. He also has issues reading the play and making the correct rotation. His rim protection is a bigger concern for me than his ability to move his feet. He's terrible at holding position in the post which is hard to understand given how strong he looks otherwise.
Here's a super cut of some of his defensive highlights and lowlights:
I highly recommend watching the whole video but I want to point out the play at 11:44 which is a great example of where his problems are as a defender. His hands are down almost the entire play. He's actually in position to double team McKinley Wright (#25) under the basket but he doesn't use his length to deny the passing lane. The pass comes out to George King (#24) at the three point line and he immediately attacks the basket. Ayton rotates over but he's still got his hands down at his knees, waiting until the last possible second the go for the shotblock. This gives King a nice long look at Dallas Walton (#35) standing in the paint waiting for the rebound and an easy passing angle to get him the ball. After the pass Ayton appears to give up on the play. He's probably too far out of position to effectively contest at that point but it contributes to the perception that he's a lazy defender.
Most of this is coachable stuff -- keep your arms up! Make yourself an obstacle that players have to work to see around. Remember your primary job is to stay between the ball and the basket so don't over-commit on the perimeter and take yourself out of the play. There are players you see who make no decisions on defense. Those are the guys I can't stand. Ayton is making all kinds of decisions but unfortunately too many of them are the wrong ones. The physical tools are so good that I feel like his floor is as an average defender not a total liability. He should be able to hold his position better as he works on his lower body strength. Any NBA strength and conditioning team will get started on that right away. The mental aspect of processing the play faster is the key though and it's impossible to know if he will improve there or not. My feeling is if you get a coach who rides him from day one about keeping his hands up and making an effort to contest everything in his area he should become an effective defender. If he's allowed to continue his bad habits for a few years though it may be too late to unlearn them at that point.
Here's a super cut of some of his defensive highlights and lowlights:
I highly recommend watching the whole video but I want to point out the play at 11:44 which is a great example of where his problems are as a defender. His hands are down almost the entire play. He's actually in position to double team McKinley Wright (#25) under the basket but he doesn't use his length to deny the passing lane. The pass comes out to George King (#24) at the three point line and he immediately attacks the basket. Ayton rotates over but he's still got his hands down at his knees, waiting until the last possible second the go for the shotblock. This gives King a nice long look at Dallas Walton (#35) standing in the paint waiting for the rebound and an easy passing angle to get him the ball. After the pass Ayton appears to give up on the play. He's probably too far out of position to effectively contest at that point but it contributes to the perception that he's a lazy defender.
Most of this is coachable stuff -- keep your arms up! Make yourself an obstacle that players have to work to see around. Remember your primary job is to stay between the ball and the basket so don't over-commit on the perimeter and take yourself out of the play. There are players you see who make no decisions on defense. Those are the guys I can't stand. Ayton is making all kinds of decisions but unfortunately too many of them are the wrong ones. The physical tools are so good that I feel like his floor is as an average defender not a total liability. He should be able to hold his position better as he works on his lower body strength. Any NBA strength and conditioning team will get started on that right away. The mental aspect of processing the play faster is the key though and it's impossible to know if he will improve there or not. My feeling is if you get a coach who rides him from day one about keeping his hands up and making an effort to contest everything in his area he should become an effective defender. If he's allowed to continue his bad habits for a few years though it may be too late to unlearn them at that point.
Let me just say the aftermath of the 2013 draft forever changed the weight i placed on levels of competition. It's because of Giannis and Gobert and to a lesser extent Schroder (Stock was probably weighed down by 'character concerns'). If you can play you can play, there's way too many factors involved to let competition level be a prevailing one.
More I am looking at prospects from draft more I am certain that there is no way Divac passes on Doncic if he is available. Some guys have higher ceiling due to physical tools, but not a single one of them has even close BBIQ and character like Doncic..
With all other guys that are mentioned in top 8 of mock drafts you might get a All Star player or you might get flop.. With Doncic you can not get flop.. he has high BBIQ, he is not cancer in dressing room, and he is prepared to do everything for a team.. that alone is enough so you get at least very good player and I think this is a thing that Divac values more over some other things.. plus European players are usually more loyal, so with Doncic you have more chance to find a player that will spend whole career in one small market like Sacramento is..
Divac is looking for a team players with good dressing room character and Doncic fits that.
With all other guys that are mentioned in top 8 of mock drafts you might get a All Star player or you might get flop.. With Doncic you can not get flop.. he has high BBIQ, he is not cancer in dressing room, and he is prepared to do everything for a team.. that alone is enough so you get at least very good player and I think this is a thing that Divac values more over some other things.. plus European players are usually more loyal, so with Doncic you have more chance to find a player that will spend whole career in one small market like Sacramento is..
Divac is looking for a team players with good dressing room character and Doncic fits that.
Looking at the conference finals rosters, the suns could still go for Doncic though. They can field a lineup of Knight/Booker/Doncic/Jackson/Chandler with Doncic’s playmaking making up for Knight’s limitation as playmaker. And Jackson has legit potential to guard both forward positions considering the limited number of old school PF these days.
- Status