Luka Doncic (pre and post-draft discussion thread)

[Kingster]

Michael Carter-Williams is a point guard, the rest are forwards. I like your idea of trying to get the best comp for Luka though. Is it hayward?

I included MCW because of his 6'6" size. He's big enough to guard a decent number of SFs, which for me is the primary criterion for determining a position. He also passes well, which is what we're talking about . Doesn't shoot well though, and I guess that's why he's played at the ball handling position. Interestingly, he guarded Harden in the playoffs. Butler, named as a SF above in Capt. Factorial's statistical scan, guarded Harden in the playoffs. If one player A (MCW )can guard the same guy as another player B(Butler), do A and B play the same position? (I've just opened a complete can of worms on the subject of how to classify the position that a player plays).

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I'll stand by the Michael Carter Williams comp. ... I guess basketball reference has to make a cut-off somewhere and maybe 6'7" is the cut-off.

I assume that bbref has labeled MCW as a point guard based on his usage in the lineup, and it's not a size thing. Lebron is a primary ball handler but he's not a "PG" because his teams have basically always had a "real PG" on the floor with him (e.g. George Hill, Kyrie Irving, etc.) MCW was for the most part "the" point guard in his lineups to my recollection.

One thing I'm wondering about is that 1000 minute criteria. What is the 1,000 minute criterion? Is that over any single season? Over a career?

1000 minutes per season. I just didn't want to get small sample size seasons in there (somebody goes out and gets 6 assists in the first game of the year and then tears their ACL at the end of the fourth quarter, stuff like that). It's a way to cull out a "full season".

 

[kingsboi]

Let's not forget about Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Kevin Garnet, Chris Weber, Shaquille O'Neal, or Alonzo Mourning lol. The list is stacked with great players. It's not the be all end all by any stretch. There is no single metric that guarantees greatness. But it's not nothing either, not even close.

I get that. I'm simply going off of the last 10 years or so. For every Bron, KG, Dwight, Shaq....you get the latter. Besides, those players stood out above the rest when they played, you could tell by watching them.

 

[roasthawg]

I get that. I'm simply going off of the last 10 years or so. For every Bron, KG, Dwight, Shaq....you get the latter. Besides, those players stood out above the rest when they played, you could tell by watching them.

Neither kg nor kd were #1 overalls so there were obviously some questions. And I agree, like I said there is no single metric. But mvp of that game is far from nothing, it's a pretty big deal to be mentioned with those other guys.

 

[ParniValjak]

If Luka wants to go #1 or #2, he needs to hop on a chartered plane and make a visit to Phoenix and Sacramento and go through the paces. He needs to make a show of commitment and impress in an individual workout. Otherwise, he will be more likely slide and make teams more hesitant to pick him.

A 4 year rookie contract as the #1 pick is worth 31M (5.9 / 6.9 / 8.1 /10.2). A 4 year contract (with team option on 4th year) as the Kings #2 pick is worth 28M. You telling me you can't pay a prospective visit to the city and team willing to consider paying you 28M?!

An unwillingness to come impress your potential employer and give them the confidence to take you over Ayton and Bagley is Diva Behavior. The Luka Fans will try to excuse this away if he stays over there but coming to the states within the next three weeks is the right thing to do. It is being transparent and confident in what you have to offer. Otherwise, what do you have to hide?

My Top 4
1. Ayton
2. Bagley
3. Bamba
4. Luka

With all due respects dude you are off with the pixies. Here is a couple of facts you really need to consider before you go off half cocked

Fact 1 - Doncic is under contract with his current team. In fact he is contracted for next season as well but has buy out.
Fact 2 - His team, you know the one that is currently paying him his salary is still in season so there are games that Luka is still expected and required to play for his current team that he is contracted.

So you think he is a Diva?! You know what would be a Diva? It would be telling his CURRENT team and his CURRENT team mates that you don't care about them and all you want to do is go over to the states and show Phoenix and Sacramento what you are all about. That would be a Diva Beahvior. And don't come at me with this "Its the NBA" bullcrap because if the roles were reversed and one of the players left the Kings to work outs for another team in the middle of a play off run, you would be the first one here unleashing.

Had Luka's season finished early, I can guarantee you that he would be on the first plane over to the US to meet and work out with the teams. I an far from convinced that Doncic should be #2 pick but the difference is that I am not calling him out as a Diva and asking what has he got to hide. He has a title to win for his current team that he is contracted to.

 

[Sactown ExPat]

When you evaluate a prospect, you don't look at accomplishments. Ben Simmons didn't win anything in the NCAA, as a matter of fact they didn't even make the tournament which was extremely laughable. However, would you hold that against him? The only reason why I brought up that Porter Jr won MVP at the McDonalds All American game is because there were plenty of people talking crap about MPJ saying the only competition he's played was against 5'9 high schoolers which was extremely incorrect, and I pointed out that he won MVP against a game which featured almost all of the top prospects in this year's draft.

No one said he would be KD. Show me 1 example of anyone saying that.. I linked many of MPJs tape since a lot of people had the misconception that he never played organize ball at a high level. Is it Euroleague? No.

But you wouldn't penalize a prospect for not playing in Euroleague. MPJ is not an unknown commodity. He's one of the most scouted HSers ever.

Oh well. Questions around him are definitely warranted, but it irks me when people try to devalue him as a prospect by saying he never played against no one.

Essentially every MPJ stalwart compares him to KD. To claim otherwise is folly. The KD comparisons are legion amongst the MPJ fans.

Look, you’re going to win this battle. Ham and Grant aren’t pumping MPJ for giggles. We’re drafting MPJ at #2. We also have Woj preemptively slotting MPJ at 15 so he can hammer Vlade on draft night. It’s going to be awesome. Anyway, I hope you MPJ guys are right, because if you’re as wrong as I think you are then it will be pretty bad for Sacramento.

Citing the McDonald’s MVP is still ridiculous.

 

[ESP47]

Previously I did have concerns about a Fox-Doncic pairing because at that time I thought that both players excel with the ball in their hands, so if you take the ball away from Fox and give it to Doncic, it limits Fox. However, as I watched more games of Luka from this year, I realized that he's changed both his game and body. Me and Baja had a discussion about Doncic's change of playstyle over the 2017 summer. He became less of a distributor(Lonzo-type), and more of a scorer. Baja pointed out that maybe Doncic was just asked to play a different role at Real Madrid compared to the Slovenia national team. So what is Doncic's "true self?". Their PG Sergio Llull suffered an injury earlier this year, so Doncic has had to step up as the both the primary playmaker and scorer. I think this season is where we're starting to see Luka mold his game.

I think he serves best as a secondary ball handler, like a Khris Middleton or Gordon Hayward. The reason why I say this is because as a primary ball handler, he struggles to consistently break down defenses. It's due to his lack of a 1st step. He relies on his handles to get defenders off balance, but when his handles don't work, he tries to power his way through. Every team in the NBA needs penetration. For that reason, it's why I think Fox and Doncic can co-exist and play off of eachother. Doncic has done a poor job playing off-ball in the last month or so, but we saw him do it pretty well last year. I think he can go back to that.

I don't think Fox is a good playmaker yet, but I was referring to Doncic as the overrated playmaker. The idea of him being a great playmaker steams from what we saw in 2016 and early 2017. I think it was more about him having such amazing IQ and vision at such a young age. We saw creative passing in there as well. Great PnR reads, ability to control the pace, good vision, etc. However, his playmaking development has come to a halt. He hasn't really improved since then. BUT, it's not such a bad thing. It's because he's developing other parts of his game on offense. He's improving his all-around scoring ability. He's worked on his handles, step-backs, drives to the rim, runners, and floaters.

I would say Doncic is a good passer at 6'8, but his overall playmaking has become overrated by fans. Just look off of his stats from this year. Last year he played more off-ball, and vs. sucky teams, RM would allow him to be their primary PG, he averaged 3.62apg. This year, RM has allowed him to be their everything on-ball, but his assists only jumped up to 4.5apg.

All good points.

I've looked at some random playmaking type players on RealGM that have come over from Europe like Rubio, Bogdan, Teodosic, Batum, Satoransky, Ingles, Jokic etc and the one trend that I see is that their assist% seems to do one of two things. It either improves in the NBA from what it was in Europe or their NBA assist% seems to revert back to what it was when they were 20-22 years old or so in Europe. So far if it has dropped for any of them, it's risen to the same or beyond what they did in Europe when they enter their prime in the NBA. So if Doncic just holds pat in the NBA like some of these guys have done, his floor is essentially (given starters minutes) about 5apg at worst with the option to go way up from there if he improves the way everyone else with a good enough sample size has done. There's obviously other variables such as sharing the ball with other players but the numbers seem encouraging. He should be able to step on the floor and be the Kings best playmaker next year.

It's the other parts of his game that I worry about more than his passing.

 

[burekijogurt]

First game vs Tenerife. Not sure if it was posted.

Second game.

 

[kingsboi]

First game vs Tenerife. Not sure if it was posted.

Second game.

good god he is slow, moves at 2 MPH. He needs to seriously shed some of that fat he got on his frame.

 

[burekijogurt]

good god he is slow, moves at 2 MPH. He needs to seriously shed some of that fat he got on his frame.

slow like a fox!

 

[mac]

good god he is slow, moves at 2 MPH. He needs to seriously shed some of that fat he got on his frame.

Agreed. I don't need the guy to be LeBron James, but his lack of quickness worries me. You don't need to be the highest jumper but quickness is important. Especially when our team is so reliant on dribble penetration (rather than having good offball screens and movement)

 

[ockingsfan]

good god he is slow, moves at 2 MPH. He needs to seriously shed some of that fat he got on his frame.

The below the knees, extra long shorts don't do him any favors. The extra long shorts along with the extra long black knee pads isn't a good look. I think that makes him look slower than he really was.

He was still running loops around his opponents and making them look silly.

But he does need to loose the baby fat and get on a NBA training regimen.

 

[Joshoua]

First game vs Tenerife. Not sure if it was posted.

Second game.

Our future SF

 

[gunks]

He's so slow, but he makes it happen.

Dude is going to have growing pains in the NBA for sure, but he's so ahead of the curve skills wise that you get the feeling he'll be fine.

He can be the SF version of Jokic! Right down to the baby fat!

 

[mac]

He's so slow, but he makes it happen.

Dude is going to have growing pains in the NBA for sure, but he's so ahead of the curve skills wise that you get the feeling he'll be fine.

He can be the SF version of Jokic! Right down to the baby fat!

Problem is that Jokic isn't playing against LBJ and Durant.

 

[ESP47]

Where exactly does he look slow in those two videos? In one fast break he doesn't look any faster or slower than anyone else but on the other he looks like the fastest player on the court. Most of the clips are him just running the pick and roll or pulling up for 3 in the half court, which don't require you to run fast.

His pick and roll at the :20 mark in that first video is a masterpiece.

 

[kingsboi]

I mean let's be honest here, he's moving slow and making everyone look silly because these Euro players aren't very athletic, I'd say a majority of them aren't but they are skillful. One is not like the other so therefore his sloth like moves will work in Europe but to me its troubling watching him move out there vertically and horizontally. I'm sure that will improve with a proper training program but to what extent? We just won't know until proven otherwise.

 

[Hansel]

His pick and roll at the :20 mark in that first video is a masterpiece.

The way he uses his body to create the space, just wonderful.
I found impressing he's always under control which is rare in young players.

 

[allrightythen]

I mean let's be honest here, he's moving slow and making everyone look silly because these Euro players aren't very athletic, I'd say a majority of them aren't but they are skillful. One is not like the other so therefore his sloth like moves will work in Europe but to me its troubling watching him move out there vertically and horizontally. I'm sure that will improve with a proper training program but to what extent? We just won't know until proven otherwise.

This could be said for every player in the draft pool.

 

[kingsboi]

This could be said for every player in the draft pool.

Correct. It's about work ethic and mentality. Some will have it more than others and in return will prosper more because of it.

 

[Kingster]

I assume that bbref has labeled MCW as a point guard based on his usage in the lineup, and it's not a size thing. Lebron is a primary ball handler but he's not a "PG" because his teams have basically always had a "real PG" on the floor with him (e.g. George Hill, Kyrie Irving, etc.) MCW was for the most part "the" point guard in his lineups to my recollection.

It's a little confusing. If usage is the criterion for position, then LBJ would be the pg as he has the most usage. When paired with Hill, Hill would not be a point guard, but something else because he does not have the highest usage. If usage is the criterion, then is the shooting guard defined as 2nd in usage rate? I'm pretty skeptical that usage is the criterion because if applied to all positions it would define a point guard as always the highest usage and center as always the lowest usage, and we know that is not the case.

 

[The_Jamal]

Problem is that Jokic isn't playing against LBJ and Durant.

So our SF has to be able to guard Durant and LBJ? Where do we find one of those guys?

 

[biltalent]

I mean let's be honest here, he's moving slow and making everyone look silly because these Euro players aren't very athletic, I'd say a majority of them aren't but they are skillful. One is not like the other so therefore his sloth like moves will work in Europe but to me its troubling watching him move out there vertically and horizontally. I'm sure that will improve with a proper training program but to what extent? We just won't know until proven otherwise.

Yeah too bad we dont have any tape of him playing against NBA caliber players where we could see if he can play against NBA athletes..

Oh wait..

Thats after he spent one season working at P3.

 

[miltonap]

He doesn't even look slow to me in those last two vids

 

[gunks]

Problem is that Jokic isn't playing against LBJ and Durant.

LBJ and Durant are killing everybody.

I guess the fear is that Doncic will make Joe Schmo SFs look like LBJ and Durant!

 

[Kingster]

First game vs Tenerife. Not sure if it was posted.

Second game.

One thing I learned from the videos is that they play bingo in europe.

If the Kings do draft him it looks like they need to run a lot of pick and rolls for him in order to get their money's worth. Or, they need to be able to defend and defensive rebound much much better in order to get him in the open floor when he gets the ball. I'm assuming they wouldn't put him in the corner - he will never be a 3&D guy. And along the same lines, the Kings would need to screen better than what I saw from the Kings last season. (Those euros know how to screen!) He's not breaking down NBA players one-on-one, imo. As far as making baskets from the outside, other than looking at his form, I totally disregard the makes because they never show you the misses. All in all, I still would take Bagley over him every day and Sunday because I just view Bagley as a safer All Star pick due to his athleticism, which usually (not always) indicates a higher potential ceiling. Also, if you think the Kings need to get more athletic overall and longer overall, Doncic doesn't make sense. It's possible he could subtract from the overall athleticism of the team, not increase it. And unless you believe that he plays point guard or the 2 in the NBA he's not going to increase the length or size of this team. Joerger harped about the size disadvantage of the Kings all last season, and Doncic just doesn't improve that inadequacy. But I could see Joerger singing hallelujah all day long if the Kings draft Ayton, Bagley or Jackson.

 

[King Baller]

good god he is slow, moves at 2 MPH. He needs to seriously shed some of that fat he got on his frame.

Funny thing is I watched the same highlights as you and thought Doncic is getting to any place on the floor he wants to. He has great handles and moves around the court smoothly and has very nice hesitation moves that takes the defenders off guard. His game is similar to Bogis except Doncic is big enough to play SF. He is very crafty with the ball in the same way gym rat JWill was. I like the Kid as #2 but I think teams are blowing smoke and the Suns will take him #1. All this talk of junk food, poor eating habits etc. came from where exactly? They don't give away MVP awards, even in Europe

I mean let's be honest here, he's moving slow and making everyone look silly because these Euro players aren't very athletic, I'd say a majority of them aren't but they are skillful. One is not like the other so therefore his sloth like moves will work in Europe but to me its troubling watching him move out there vertically and horizontally. I'm sure that will improve with a proper training program but to what extent? We just won't know until proven otherwise.

This reads like an anti European basketball piece. How do you explain Bogdan playing so well?

 

[ESP47]

It's a little confusing. If usage is the criterion for position, then LBJ would be the pg as he has the most usage. When paired with Hill, Hill would not be a point guard, but something else because he does not have the highest usage. If usage is the criterion, then is the shooting guard defined as 2nd in usage rate? I'm pretty skeptical that usage is the criterion because if applied to all positions it would define a point guard as always the highest usage and center as always the lowest usage, and we know that is not the case.

I think you're making this way more difficult than it needs to be.

He listed a bunch of players that are known to play the 3, 4 and 5 positions.

You're trying to lump Michael Carter Williams in there for some reason. MCW doesn't play small forward. He plays point guard and maybe shooting guard in some other scenarios. No one is like hey the Kings have a hole at the 3, why don't we trade for MCW? It's because he's not a forward. The same way Shaun Livingston isn't considered a forward despite being really tall for a point guard.

If Doncic comes over here, he's not going to play PG. He's going to play SF but he's going to have the ball in his hands more often than your typical SF. He's not going to be guarding John Wall, Chris Paul and Steph Curry. He's going to guard other players that are his size because he's the size of a typical SF and not a PG. The whole point is that it's fairly exclusive company to be his size while averaging 5apg.

 

[roasthawg]

This reads like an anti European basketball piece. How do you explain Bogdan playing so well?

Let's keep it real, Bogdan was alright last year. He's 25 years old so can't compare him to a 19/20 yr old rookie. He was one of the better players in Europe but in the NBA is absolutely nothing resembling special. He's a decent player, that's it.

 

[ESP47]

Let's keep it real, Bogdan was alright last year. He's 25 years old so can't compare him to a 19/20 yr old rookie. He was one of the better players in Europe but in the NBA is absolutely nothing resembling special. He's a decent player, that's it.

Agreed. Difference is that if you brought a 19 year old Bogdan over here, he would be awful. Doncic is already better than him in Europe so if he can come over and have a rookie year at 20 which is on par with Bogdan's rookie year at 25, you'd think that the only way he has to go is up from that point.

Obviously it's not a foregone conclusion but that would be the line of thinking in drafting him high.