Luka Doncic (pre and post-draft discussion thread)

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How is it strange? Is Doncic known for his defense? No. Is he known for his outside shooting? No. He's known for his playmaking ability. So what the hell stat should I be looking at, Padrino? Shot blocking?:rolleyes: If you have stats showing "hockey assists" in euro land please feel free to share. I'd love to see them! What is strange is your abnormal obtuseness in the face of glaring obviousness.
I think that's a reductive way to understand Luka Doncic's game, and I'm still rather new to the guy myself. I've only just recently started watching game tape and reading analysis of his skillset. But if we want to focus on playmaking, then I'd say that it is not easily boiled down to a single statistic. It includes court vision, as well as basketball IQ, patience, mental toughness, the recognition of the right play, and the ability to execute that play quickly and efficiently. These are largely unquantifiables, but we know them when we see them, and Doncic appears to have them in spades.

You yourself have said in other threads that player demeanor and mental fortitude are important factors in evaluating talent. It's why you like to focus on player interviews ahead of the draft. Doncic has been a winner at every stage of his professional career, in part because of these intangibles. He's not out there assist-hunting like Rajon Rondo. He's out there evaluating his options and making the right play. He's also intensely competitive, but it doesn't come at the expense of what's best for the team. His poise at 19 years old is rather impressive.

On the biggest stages in the second-best league in the world, Doncic wasn't the type to fold under pressure, even when things weren't going his way. In other words, his ego's not writing checks his body can't cash. The kid's a baller, and it's hard not to like a player who's already so damn grown at 19, rather than all "untapped potential," like your Ben Mclemore's or your Skal Labissiere's.

And when we discuss whether or not Player X "makes his teammates better," we're not chalking it up to assist numbers or some other raw statistic. Again, you know that quality when you see it. Even in an age of in-depth statistical analysis, sometimes the eye test is sufficient, especially when it can be difficult to grasp how a player's stats will transition from college to the NBA or from Euroleague to the NBA.

For years, you were firmly in the camp that a team built around Demarcus Cousins could not win, in part because he doesn't make his teammates better. For all of his statistical excellence, and for all of the mistakes the Kings made in failing to build around him, it was reasonable to wonder if Boogie was simply fools gold. Luka Doncic unequivocally makes his teammates better. He knows how to make the right pass. He sees the court better than just about any other player his age. He's skilled enough to "wow" you like this...


...but disciplined enough to avoid the kinds of highlight-seeking mistakes that Jason Williams would regularly make early in his career.

Now, none of this is to say that Luka Doncic is a guaranteed all-star in the NBA. A lot of his biggest boosters like to talk him up as if he's the second coming of Magic. I don't know that he is. The limits of his athleticism are a big question mark for me, as are his defensive potential and his ability to become a go-to scorer. I have him ranked below both Ayton and Bagley on my personal big board because I'm not convinced he's got that "franchise player" value one typically looks for in a potential top-3 pick. But I do think Doncic is going to be a legitimate starter on or near day 1, and I think he's going to have a very productive career, with the possibility for all-star success. I'm still familiarizing myself with his game, but I like him a lot, and I don't necessarily think it would be a mistake to draft him at two, especially since concerns about defense abound amongst other top picks like Ayton, Bagley, and Porter Jr.
 
So how does one then intelligently translate euro assist stats to nba assist stats? Is there an overall multiplier that is out there that one can apply? If a multiplier existed, I would think it would be a composite of all euro players that went to the NBA, not just a couple of successful ones or a couple of unsuccessful ones that confirm one's biases either way.
In lieu of having a prallel stat collected in Europe that counts assists as they would be counted in the NBA, a methodology similar to what you have described would be the next best thing. although that would incorporate the ability of euro players to adapt to the nba into the numbers (which might be what you are actually looking for). but im not aware that such work has been done. but as others have mentioned, luka's playmaking ability seems to be sound and to the eye its at minimum no worse than Bogdan's.
 

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
Hilarious in the porter thread someone said porter gets too much unwarranted scrutiny. Then you come in Doncics thread to see the blasphemy for a guy whose actually accomplished
Don't you see what's going on? He's a Euro player being taken in the top 5, so therefore it means he won't have success because the ones before him have been productive but not stars, unless you want to count Porzingis as a star all ready, which I won't do.
 
Hilarious in the porter thread someone said porter gets too much unwarranted scrutiny. Then you come in Doncics thread to see the blasphemy for a guy whose actually accomplished
Porter was MVP of the McDonald’s game!!! Which is a game with real athletes playing something kind of resembling basketball!!!

Sorry, couldn’t resist. I’m fine with trading back for MPJ if Luka goes #1, but that MPJ thread started reading like a Bamba thread all of a sudden. Like he’s guaranteed to be KD Jr based on his high school stats.
 
How is it strange? Is Doncic known for his defense? No. Is he known for his outside shooting? No. He's known for his playmaking ability. So what the hell stat should I be looking at, Padrino? Shot blocking?:rolleyes: If you have stats showing "hockey assists" in euro land please feel free to share. I'd love to see them! What is strange is your abnormal obtuseness in the face of glaring obviousness.
Numbers are numbers, you should care about how he plays the game. I'd rather have him average 5 assists per game and lead us deep into the play-offs than have him average 15 a game without getting us anywhere. Please, just watch him play and if you still think that he isn't a good passer you should maybe retire from being a basketball fan. There are weaknesses, but I can assure you that passing is not one of them.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
Numbers are numbers, you should care about how he plays the game. I'd rather have him average 5 assists per game and lead us deep into the play-offs than have him average 15 a game without getting us anywhere. Please, just watch him play and if you still think that he isn't a good passer you should maybe retire from being a basketball fan. There are weaknesses, but I can assure you that passing is not one of them.
He doesn't average 5 assists a game, but rather 4.3 assists a game, and in the playoffs 3 assists a game. It may not be a weakness, but is it really going to be a great strength in the NBA? If he's going to be a good assist guy, not really a great assist guy, then what have you for the #2 pick?
 
He doesn't average 5 assists a game, but rather 4.3 assists a game, and in the playoffs 3 assists a game. It may not be a weakness, but is it really going to be a great strength in the NBA? If he's going to be a good assist guy, not really a great assist guy, then what have you for the #2 pick?
If Luka wants to go #1 or #2, he needs to hop on a chartered plane and make a visit to Phoenix and Sacramento and go through the paces. He needs to make a show of commitment and impress in an individual workout. Otherwise, he will be more likely slide and make teams more hesitant to pick him.

A 4 year rookie contract as the #1 pick is worth 31M (5.9 / 6.9 / 8.1 /10.2). A 4 year contract (with team option on 4th year) as the Kings #2 pick is worth 28M. You telling me you can't pay a prospective visit to the city and team willing to consider paying you 28M?!

An unwillingness to come impress your potential employer and give them the confidence to take you over Ayton and Bagley is Diva Behavior. The Luka Fans will try to excuse this away if he stays over there but coming to the states within the next three weeks is the right thing to do. It is being transparent and confident in what you have to offer. Otherwise, what do you have to hide?

My Top 4
1. Ayton
2. Bagley
3. Bamba
4. Luka
 

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
He doesn't average 5 assists a game, but rather 4.3 assists a game, and in the playoffs 3 assists a game.
Nobody said he averaged 5 assists per game in Euroleague, that was just given as a hypothetical "good" number for him in the NBA. It's not completely out of the realm of possibility because assists are harder to come by in Euroleague, both because the games are shorter and because the criteria for awarding assists are stricter. It's also true that in the NBA he's not likely to be a primary ballhandler as often, so an expected uptick in assists from moving to the NBA could be counteracted by an expected drop in opportunities. Still, it's passing skill and how that translates to the entire offense that is really important here.

It may not be a weakness, but is it really going to be a great strength in the NBA? If he's going to be a good assist guy, not really a great assist guy, then what have you for the #2 pick?
I suppose that 5.0 assists per game from a forward in the NBA may only qualify as "good" instead of "great, but again, what kind of player does it make you if you can do that, as a non-guard in the NBA? Here is a list of all the non-guards to average 5 assists or more in a season (min 1000 minutes played) since 2000:

Lebron James (x15)
Tracy McGrady (x7)
Nicholas Batum (x4)
Kevin Durant (x3)
Kevin Garnett (x3)
Draymond Green (x3)
Blake Griffin (x2)
Jamal Mashburn (x2)
Lamar Odom (x2)
Antoine Walker (x2)
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Jimmy Butler
DeMarcus Cousins
Boris Diaw
Vlade Divac
Gordon Hayward
Stephen Jackson
Nikola Jokic
Joakim Noah
Paul PIerce
Scottie Pippen
Chris Webber

That's a pretty damn fine looking list of players. What do you get for the #2 pick, if he can pass (as a forward) in the 5 assist range, he can score, he can shoot, he can rebound, he can handle the ball, and he has a great basketball IQ, and is a leader? If that guy is a tick more athletic than everybody else, his name is Lebron James. If he's a tick less athletic than everybody else, like Doncic, then it sure looks like you have a pretty damn solid basketball player. Lebron James comes around once every 20 or 30 years. Nobody is asking for Lebron James. But Doncic is the entire package without the elite athleticism. That still would make him the best player on our team (at least in time), a multiple time all star, and a guy who is at the least going to get you to the playoffs year in and year out if you can surround him with a team. I'll take that at #2.
 
If Luka wants to go #1 or #2, he needs to hop on a chartered plane and make a visit to Phoenix and Sacramento and go through the paces. He needs to make a show of commitment and impress in an individual workout. Otherwise, he will be more likely slide and make teams more hesitant to pick him.

A 4 year rookie contract as the #1 pick is worth 31M (5.9 / 6.9 / 8.1 /10.2). A 4 year contract (with team option on 4th year) as the Kings #2 pick is worth 28M. You telling me you can't pay a prospective visit to the city and team willing to consider paying you 28M?!

An unwillingness to come impress your potential employer and give them the confidence to take you over Ayton and Bagley is Diva Behavior. The Luka Fans will try to excuse this away if he stays over there but coming to the states within the next three weeks is the right thing to do. It is being transparent and confident in what you have to offer. Otherwise, what do you have to hide?

My Top 4
1. Ayton
2. Bagley
3. Bamba
4. Luka
Lol he doesn’t need to do anything to go 1 or 2 this workout stuff is overblown
 
Doncic is playing in the playoff for Madrid right now, the club which pay his wages. Diva Behaviour would be leave the team (and get fined for that of course), not the opposite.

Until the 18th of June he could be busy, so I definitely guess he will not show any commitment for his future team.

Individual workout for a pro? Let's watch the Spanish playoff, isn't it better?

It's fine if you don't like Doncic, but be reasonable please.
 
Doncic is playing in the playoff for Madrid right now, the club which pay his wages. Diva Behaviour would be leave the team (and get fined for that of course), not the opposite.

Until the 18th of June he could be busy, so I definitely guess he will not show any commitment for his future team.

Individual workout for a pro? Let's watch the Spanish playoff, isn't it better?

It's fine if you don't like Doncic, but be reasonable please.
See my Top 4 list with regards to whether I like him. Real Madrid plays June 3, June 5 and June 7. So after this, he can come to the states or no?
 
That's the semifinal. Then probably he'll play in the finals.

Final
Si las dos semifinales acaban en 3 partidos las fechas de la final serían 8, 10, 13, 15 y 18 de junio. En caso de que alguna llegue a 4 encuentros, las fechas serían 9, 11, 14, 16 y 18 de junio. En caso de que al menos una de las semifinales se resuelva en cinco partidos, la final se disputará el 10, 12, 14, 16 y 18 de junio.
 
He doesn't average 5 assists a game, but rather 4.3 assists a game, and in the playoffs 3 assists a game. It may not be a weakness, but is it really going to be a great strength in the NBA? If he's going to be a good assist guy, not really a great assist guy, then what have you for the #2 pick?
Rubio was a 4-5 assist guy in Europe as well. I think he played less minutes than Luka so I don't think the two are equal passers or anything but Rubio has been a 8-9 assist guy for years now in the NBA. If Luka can get you 5-7 assists depending on his usage as a ball handler, you take it.

I'm sure the TWolves would have traded a couple of Rubio's assists per game if it meant he would shoot the ball better from the floor.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
Nobody said he averaged 5 assists per game in Euroleague, that was just given as a hypothetical "good" number for him in the NBA. It's not completely out of the realm of possibility because assists are harder to come by in Euroleague, both because the games are shorter and because the criteria for awarding assists are stricter. It's also true that in the NBA he's not likely to be a primary ballhandler as often, so an expected uptick in assists from moving to the NBA could be counteracted by an expected drop in opportunities. Still, it's passing skill and how that translates to the entire offense that is really important here.



I suppose that 5.0 assists per game from a forward in the NBA may only qualify as "good" instead of "great, but again, what kind of player does it make you if you can do that, as a non-guard in the NBA? Here is a list of all the non-guards to average 5 assists or more in a season (min 1000 minutes played) since 2000:

Lebron James (x15)
Tracy McGrady (x7)
Nicholas Batum (x4)
Kevin Durant (x3)
Kevin Garnett (x3)
Draymond Green (x3)
Blake Griffin (x2)
Jamal Mashburn (x2)
Lamar Odom (x2)
Antoine Walker (x2)
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Jimmy Butler
DeMarcus Cousins
Boris Diaw
Vlade Divac
Gordon Hayward
Stephen Jackson
Nikola Jokic
Joakim Noah
Paul PIerce
Scottie Pippen
Chris Webber

That's a pretty damn fine looking list of players. What do you get for the #2 pick, if he can pass (as a forward) in the 5 assist range, he can score, he can shoot, he can rebound, he can handle the ball, and he has a great basketball IQ, and is a leader? If that guy is a tick more athletic than everybody else, his name is Lebron James. If he's a tick less athletic than everybody else, like Doncic, then it sure looks like you have a pretty damn solid basketball player. Lebron James comes around once every 20 or 30 years. Nobody is asking for Lebron James. But Doncic is the entire package without the elite athleticism. That still would make him the best player on our team (at least in time), a multiple time all star, and a guy who is at the least going to get you to the playoffs year in and year out if you can surround him with a team. I'll take that at #2.
Stero said it. See above. And I said it earlier because I misread the web page. So yes, people have said it, and not hypothetically.

And now you are saying it by implicitly positing that he will be averaging 5 assists per game from the forward position in the NBA. Or at least hypothetically. Why should we be interested in the list unless we assume that he can get 5 assists or greater from the wing position? I'm trying to understand if your hypothetical 5 assists per game is realistic.

Regarding Hayward, he's had one year where he had an average of over 5 assists - 5.2 assists in 2013-14. Omitting last year entirely his average annual assists starting in his rookie year were 1.1, 3.1, 3.0, 5.2, 4.1, 3.7, 3.5 (last year excluded).

Regarding Odom, for his career his average annual assists were 3.7; he had 3 years in his entire career when he got into the 5s in assists, with all other years lower.

Regarding Diaw, his career average in assists was 3.5; in his long career he only had one year that was 5 or above - 6.2 assists in 2005-6.

Regarding Antoine Walker, his career average in assists was 3.5; he got into the 5s in assists in only two years of his 12 year career.

Mashburn averaged 4 assists for his career; he got into 5s for two years of his 12 year career.

McGrady averaged 4.4 assists for his career; he broached the 5 assists average in seven years of his 15 year career, and in one year he got into the 6s - 6.5 specifically.

Batum has averaged 3.8 assists in his career; in the last four years of his 10-year career he's had four years where he's averaged in the 5s for assists in and in the last six years he's progressively gone upward in assists from 4.8 to 5.9 per game per year average.

Griffin has averaged 4.3 assists for his career; in only two years of his seven year career has he gotten into the 5s. Paul Pierce averaged 3.5 assists for his career; he broached the 5 mark only one year of his very long career.

The Greek Freek has averaged 3.8 assists per season so far in his career; he got into the 5s two years ago with 5.4.

Scottie Pippen was fantastic, having an average of 5.2 assists per game for his career, and he averaged 5 or more assists per season for twelve of his seventeen years. He even got into the 6s in two years and 7.0 assist average in one season.

LBJ has averaged 7.2 assists per game for his career; he's exceeded 5 assists every season he has played. and has reached the pinnacle of 9.1 this year.

Kevin Durant - 3.9 assist career average; he's gotten into the 5s in only three years of his eleven year career.

One guy that didn't come up on your list for some reason was Michael Carter Williams. He's average 4.9 assists for his career and he exceeded 5 assists for three years of his five-year career. Did this criteria of yours self-select for the successes and not the failures?

I haven't gotten to all on your list. I omitted the centers and power forwards and a few others for time constraint reasons. It looks like there are very few players that have average 5 assists or more from the wing position in their career, and very few who even have averaged 5 or more assists per season for most of the seasons of their career. Five assists per game is indeed a noble goal. Whether Doncic gets there or not is another question entirely. Who among the above is the best comp for Doncic? Hayward maybe? Batum? Michael Carter Williams? One thing I did learn from this exercise (that became almost an obsession:) is that if the Kings are seriously looking for an assist guy from the SF position, they should look at trading for Batum. He's a known commodity.
 
Stero said it. See above. And I said it earlier because I misread the web page. So yes, people have said it, and not hypothetically.

And now you are saying it by implicitly positing that he will be averaging 5 assists per game from the forward position in the NBA. Or at least hypothetically. Why should we be interested in the list unless we assume that he can get 5 assists or greater from the wing position? I'm trying to understand if your hypothetical 5 assists per game is realistic.

Regarding Hayward, he's had one year where he had an average of over 5 assists - 5.2 assists in 2013-14. Omitting last year entirely his average annual assists starting in his rookie year were 1.1, 3.1, 3.0, 5.2, 4.1, 3.7, 3.5 (last year excluded).

Regarding Odom, for his career his average annual assists were 3.7; he had 3 years in his entire career when he got into the 5s in assists, with all other years lower.

Regarding Diaw, his career average in assists was 3.5; in his long career he only had one year that was 5 or above - 6.2 assists in 2005-6.

Regarding Antoine Walker, his career average in assists was 3.5; he got into the 5s in assists in only two years of his 12 year career.

Mashburn averaged 4 assists for his career; he got into 5s for two years of his 12 year career.

McGrady averaged 4.4 assists for his career; he broached the 5 assists average in seven years of his 15 year career, and in one year he got into the 6s - 6.5 specifically.

Batum has averaged 3.8 assists in his career; in the last four years of his 10-year career he's had four years where he's averaged in the 5s for assists in and in the last six years he's progressively gone upward in assists from 4.8 to 5.9 per game per year average.

Griffin has averaged 4.3 assists for his career; in only two years of his seven year career has he gotten into the 5s. Paul Pierce averaged 3.5 assists for his career; he broached the 5 mark only one year of his very long career.

The Greek Freek has averaged 3.8 assists per season so far in his career; he got into the 5s two years ago with 5.4.

Scottie Pippen was fantastic, having an average of 5.2 assists per game for his career, and he averaged 5 or more assists per season for twelve of his seventeen years. He even got into the 6s in two years and 7.0 assist average in one season.

LBJ has averaged 7.2 assists per game for his career; he's exceeded 5 assists every season he has played. and has reached the pinnacle of 9.1 this year.

Kevin Durant - 3.9 assist career average; he's gotten into the 5s in only three years of his eleven year career.

One guy that didn't come up on your list for some reason was Michael Carter Williams. He's average 4.9 assists for his career and he exceeded 5 assists for three years of his five-year career. Did this criteria of yours self-select for the successes and not the failures?

I haven't gotten to all on your list. I omitted the centers and power forwards and a few others for time constraint reasons. It looks like there are very few players that have average 5 assists or more from the wing position in their career, and very few who even have averaged 5 or more assists per season for most of the seasons of their career. Five assists per game is indeed a noble goal. Whether Doncic gets there or not is another question entirely. Who among the above is the best comp for Doncic? Hayward maybe? Batum? Michael Carter Williams? One thing I did learn from this exercise (that became almost an obsession:) is that if the Kings are seriously looking for an assist guy from the SF position, they should look at trading for Batum. He's a known commodity.
Michael Carter-Williams is a point guard, the rest are forwards. I like your idea of trying to get the best comp for Luka though. Is it hayward?
 
That's the semifinal. Then probably he'll play in the finals.

Final
Si las dos semifinales acaban en 3 partidos las fechas de la final serían 8, 10, 13, 15 y 18 de junio. En caso de que alguna llegue a 4 encuentros, las fechas serían 9, 11, 14, 16 y 18 de junio. En caso de que al menos una de las semifinales se resuelva en cinco partidos, la final se disputará el 10, 12, 14, 16 y 18 de junio.
Thanks, I didn't realize his team had such a busy schedule assuming he advances. So then what he needs to do is commit to the NBA some time before June 21 and hold a group workout over there and invite the top teams, or the teams he is interested in playing for. There has to be some proactive strategy by the Luka team if he expects a team to spend a precious asset on him. To be non-committal or not make himself available for private workouts of some type is Diva Behavior, and counter productive to his NBA aspirations.
 
Hilarious in the porter thread someone said porter gets too much unwarranted scrutiny. Then you come in Doncics thread to see the blasphemy for a guy whose actually accomplished
When you evaluate a prospect, you don't look at accomplishments. Ben Simmons didn't win anything in the NCAA, as a matter of fact they didn't even make the tournament which was extremely laughable. However, would you hold that against him? The only reason why I brought up that Porter Jr won MVP at the McDonalds All American game is because there were plenty of people talking crap about MPJ saying the only competition he's played was against 5'9 high schoolers which was extremely incorrect, and I pointed out that he won MVP against a game which featured almost all of the top prospects in this year's draft.
Porter was MVP of the McDonald’s game!!! Which is a game with real athletes playing something kind of resembling basketball!!!

Sorry, couldn’t resist. I’m fine with trading back for MPJ if Luka goes #1, but that MPJ thread started reading like a Bamba thread all of a sudden. Like he’s guaranteed to be KD Jr based on his high school stats.
No one said he would be KD. Show me 1 example of anyone saying that.. I linked many of MPJs tape since a lot of people had the misconception that he never played organize ball at a high level. Is it Euroleague? No.

But you wouldn't penalize a prospect for not playing in Euroleague. MPJ is not an unknown commodity. He's one of the most scouted HSers ever.

Oh well. Questions around him are definitely warranted, but it irks me when people try to devalue him as a prospect by saying he never played against no one.
 
Rubio was a 4-5 assist guy in Europe as well. I think he played less minutes than Luka so I don't think the two are equal passers or anything but Rubio has been a 8-9 assist guy for years now in the NBA. If Luka can get you 5-7 assists depending on his usage as a ball handler, you take it.

I'm sure the TWolves would have traded a couple of Rubio's assists per game if it meant he would shoot the ball better from the floor.
I don't see Lila averaging 8-9apg in the NBA if he's on the Kings. Rubio always has the ball in his hands that's why his assists have been as high as they are. Look at him this year when he shared the backcourt, I think his assists dropped to 4.5?

He'd need to be the primary ball handler. I don't see that happening with Fox. I think people have overrated his playmaking a bit, but he's still a good passer.
 
I don't see Lila averaging 8-9apg in the NBA if he's on the Kings. Rubio always has the ball in his hands that's why his assists have been as high as they are. Look at him this year when he shared the backcourt, I think his assists dropped to 4.5?

He'd need to be the primary ball handler. I don't see that happening with Fox. I think people have overrated his playmaking a bit, but he's still a good passer.
Yeah that's what I mean. If Luka is your primary ball handler and he's a real 7apg guy, then you have to trade Fox unless he miraculously becomes a dead eye shooter. You don't draft Fox and then try and mold him into Collison. You try and mold him into a John Wall type player.

If they share the ball, maybe they both wind up with 4-5apg or so and each bring a different dimension to the game.

Are you saying it's Doncic's or Fox's playmaking that's a bit overrated? With Doncic, it's rated highly because of his age mixed with how he looks on tape distributing the ball. You're looking into the future and seeing a better version of what you see now and if he's a solid playmaker at 18/19, the kid has a chance to become a really good playmaker at 25. Then again, he could also never improve or even regress in the NBA but the excitement is there because of his ability to improve due to age and on court IQ.
 
When you evaluate a prospect, you don't look at accomplishments. Ben Simmons didn't win anything in the NCAA, as a matter of fact they didn't even make the tournament which was extremely laughable. However, would you hold that against him? The only reason why I brought up that Porter Jr won MVP at the McDonalds All American game is because there were plenty of people talking crap about MPJ saying the only competition he's played was against 5'9 high schoolers which was extremely incorrect, and I pointed out that he won MVP against a game which featured almost all of the top prospects in this year's draft.

No one said he would be KD. Show me 1 example of anyone saying that.. I linked many of MPJs tape since a lot of people had the misconception that he never played organize ball at a high level. Is it Euroleague? No.

But you wouldn't penalize a prospect for not playing in Euroleague. MPJ is not an unknown commodity. He's one of the most scouted HSers ever.

Oh well. Questions around him are definitely warranted, but it irks me when people try to devalue him as a prospect by saying he never played against no one.
This is the same thing that was bothering me. People disregarding his play in McDonald's all American game, Nike classic, Jordan Brand classic, under17 and under19. Not to mention his play in AAU against all the top players. There is no doubt that missing his year of college hurt him, but there is more film on him than almost anyone who has ever come out of HS.
 
Yeah that's what I mean. If Luka is your primary ball handler and he's a real 7apg guy, then you have to trade Fox unless he miraculously becomes a dead eye shooter. You don't draft Fox and then try and mold him into Collison. You try and mold him into a John Wall type player.

If they share the ball, maybe they both wind up with 4-5apg or so and each bring a different dimension to the game.

Are you saying it's Doncic's or Fox's playmaking that's a bit overrated? With Doncic, it's rated highly because of his age mixed with how he looks on tape distributing the ball. You're looking into the future and seeing a better version of what you see now and if he's a solid playmaker at 18/19, the kid has a chance to become a really good playmaker at 25. Then again, he could also never improve or even regress in the NBA but the excitement is there because of his ability to improve due to age and on court IQ.
Previously I did have concerns about a Fox-Doncic pairing because at that time I thought that both players excel with the ball in their hands, so if you take the ball away from Fox and give it to Doncic, it limits Fox. However, as I watched more games of Luka from this year, I realized that he's changed both his game and body. Me and Baja had a discussion about Doncic's change of playstyle over the 2017 summer. He became less of a distributor(Lonzo-type), and more of a scorer. Baja pointed out that maybe Doncic was just asked to play a different role at Real Madrid compared to the Slovenia national team. So what is Doncic's "true self?". Their PG Sergio Llull suffered an injury earlier this year, so Doncic has had to step up as the both the primary playmaker and scorer. I think this season is where we're starting to see Luka mold his game.

I think he serves best as a secondary ball handler, like a Khris Middleton or Gordon Hayward. The reason why I say this is because as a primary ball handler, he struggles to consistently break down defenses. It's due to his lack of a 1st step. He relies on his handles to get defenders off balance, but when his handles don't work, he tries to power his way through. Every team in the NBA needs penetration. For that reason, it's why I think Fox and Doncic can co-exist and play off of eachother. Doncic has done a poor job playing off-ball in the last month or so, but we saw him do it pretty well last year. I think he can go back to that.

I don't think Fox is a good playmaker yet, but I was referring to Doncic as the overrated playmaker. The idea of him being a great playmaker steams from what we saw in 2016 and early 2017. I think it was more about him having such amazing IQ and vision at such a young age. We saw creative passing in there as well. Great PnR reads, ability to control the pace, good vision, etc. However, his playmaking development has come to a halt. He hasn't really improved since then. BUT, it's not such a bad thing. It's because he's developing other parts of his game on offense. He's improving his all-around scoring ability. He's worked on his handles, step-backs, drives to the rim, runners, and floaters.

I would say Doncic is a good passer at 6'8, but his overall playmaking has become overrated by fans. Just look off of his stats from this year. Last year he played more off-ball, and vs. sucky teams, RM would allow him to be their primary PG, he averaged 3.62apg. This year, RM has allowed him to be their everything on-ball, but his assists only jumped up to 4.5apg.
 

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
Stero said it. See above. And I said it earlier because I misread the web page. So yes, people have said it, and not hypothetically.
Well, to be clear, you were quoting stero, who said "I'd rather have him average 5 assists per game", which is clearly a hopeful NBA number, and is different than saying that he has averaged that number in Euroleague. Let me rephrase that as "nobody is trying to falsely inflate his actual Euroleague stats".

And now you are saying it by implicitly positing that he will be averaging 5 assists per game from the forward position in the NBA. Or at least hypothetically. Why should we be interested in the list unless we assume that he can get 5 assists or greater from the wing position? I'm trying to understand if your hypothetical 5 assists per game is realistic.
I don't know whether he will or won't average that in the NBA - as I said, there are factors that would suggest he will average more (game duration, NBA much more liberal with assists) and others that would suggest otherwise (may not spend as much time as primary ball handler). I made the list because you seemed to suggest that about 5 assists per game form the wing was "good" but not "great". I think the list suggests that 5 assists from the wing is "great".

One guy that didn't come up on your list for some reason was Michael Carter Williams. He's average 4.9 assists for his career and he exceeded 5 assists for three years of his five-year career. Did this criteria of yours self-select for the successes and not the failures?
The list included any season during which a player 1) averaged 5.0 assists or better per game, and 2) played at least 1000 minutes, and 3) was in 2000 or later, and 4) the player was NOT primarily considered a guard ("G" or "G-F") by basketball-reference.com. Michael Carter-Williams was almost certainly considered a guard.

It looks like there are very few players that have average 5 assists or more from the wing position in their career, and very few who even have averaged 5 or more assists per season for most of the seasons of their career. Five assists per game is indeed a noble goal. Whether Doncic gets there or not is another question entirely.
Agreed on all.
 

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
When you evaluate a prospect, you don't look at accomplishments. Ben Simmons didn't win anything in the NCAA, as a matter of fact they didn't even make the tournament which was extremely laughable. However, would you hold that against him? The only reason why I brought up that Porter Jr won MVP at the McDonalds All American game is because there were plenty of people talking crap about MPJ saying the only competition he's played was against 5'9 high schoolers which was extremely incorrect, and I pointed out that he won MVP against a game which featured almost all of the top prospects in this year's draft.

No one said he would be KD. Show me 1 example of anyone saying that.. I linked many of MPJs tape since a lot of people had the misconception that he never played organize ball at a high level. Is it Euroleague? No.

But you wouldn't penalize a prospect for not playing in Euroleague. MPJ is not an unknown commodity. He's one of the most scouted HSers ever.

Oh well. Questions around him are definitely warranted, but it irks me when people try to devalue him as a prospect by saying he never played against no one.
Porter winning the MVP at the All-American scrimmage game has zero value or merit. Let's go back ten years and look at some of the MVPs of that scrimmage;

2008 - Tyreke Evans
2009 - Derrick Favors
2010 - Harrison Barnes & Jared Sullinger
2011 - MKG & James McAdoo
2012 - Shabazz Muhammad
2013 - Aaron Gordon
2014 - Justin Jackson & Jahlil Okafor
2015 - Cheick Diallo
2016 - Frank Jackson & Josh Jackson

now you look at that list and see a lot of lottery picks, but none of those players are all-stars and the majority of them are average players and/or role players

This isn't to bash Porter but bringing up the fact that he won the MVP in a scrimmage doesn't tell me a whole lot on a prospect, since we have no College tape on him, we all want him to be something he isn't. I'd gladly eat crow if he turns into a stud SF but I won't sing his praises as a can't miss prospect right now.
 
Porter winning the MVP at the All-American scrimmage game has zero value or merit. Let's go back ten years and look at some of the MVPs of that scrimmage;

2008 - Tyreke Evans
2009 - Derrick Favors
2010 - Harrison Barnes & Jared Sullinger
2011 - MKG & James McAdoo
2012 - Shabazz Muhammad
2013 - Aaron Gordon
2014 - Justin Jackson & Jahlil Okafor
2015 - Cheick Diallo
2016 - Frank Jackson & Josh Jackson

now you look at that list and see a lot of lottery picks, but none of those players are all-stars and the majority of them are average players and/or role players

This isn't to bash Porter but bringing up the fact that he won the MVP in a scrimmage doesn't tell me a whole lot on a prospect, since we have no College tape on him, we all want him to be something he isn't. I'd gladly eat crow if he turns into a stud SF but I won't sing his praises as a can't miss prospect right now.
I never gave him praise for winning MVP of that game. As I said in the same post you just replied to, I only mentioned he won MVP because people were saying MPJ has never gone up against anyone except 5'9 highschoolers when that was not true at all. He won MVP in the McDonald's ALL American game playing against ELITE NBA PROSPECTS in this upcoming draft.

Mohamed Bamba6-11215C/PFWesttown, PennsylvaniaWesttown SchoolTexas^~3Wendell Carter6-9262SF/PF/CAtlanta, GeorgiaPace AcademyDuke4Trevon Duval6-3175PGBradenton, FloridaIMG AcademyDuke^~22Quade Green6-1170PGPhiladelphia, PennsylvaniaNeumann Goretti High SchoolKentucky7Kevin Knox6-8205SFTampa, FloridaTampa Catholic High SchoolKentucky^~11Nick Richards6-11220CElizabeth, New JerseySt. Patrick High SchoolKentucky9Mitchell Robinson7-0230CChalmette, LouisianaChalmette High SchoolWestern Kentucky†10Collin Sexton6-3182SGMableton, GeorgiaPebblebrook High SchoolAlabama18Lonnie Walker6-6210PG/SGReading, PennsylvaniaReading High SchoolMiami14P. J. Washington6-9230SF/PFDallas, TexasFindlay PrepKentucky13Kris Wilkes6-7168SF/PFIndianapolis, IndianaNorth Central High SchoolUCLA23Jarred Vanderbilt6-8

Deandre Ayton7-0235CPhoenix, ArizonaHillcrest PrepArizona12Brian Bowen6-7212SF/PFLaPorte, IndianaLa Lumiere SchoolLouisville‡17Troy Brown Jr.6-7205SF/PFLas Vegas, NevadaCentennial High SchoolOregon26Jaylen Hands6-3170PGEl Cajon, CaliforniaFoothills Christian SchoolUCLA16Jaren Jackson Jr.6-11235PF/CLa Porte, IndianaLa Lumiere SchoolMichigan State6Brandon McCoy7-0245CSan Diego, CaliforniaCathedral Catholic High SchoolUNLV^~30Charles O'Bannon Jr.6-6200SFLas Vegas, NevadaBishop Gorman High SchoolUSC1Michael Porter Jr.6-10210SFSeattle, WashingtonNathan Hale High SchoolMissouri20Billy Preston6-9220PFSanta Ana, CaliforniaOak Hill AcademyKansas8Gary Trent Jr.6-5190SGNapa, CaliforniaProlific Prep AcademyDuke19M. J. Walker6-5207SGJonesboro, GeorgiaJonesboro High SchoolFlorida State^~15Trae Young
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
Well, to be clear, you were quoting stero, who said "I'd rather have him average 5 assists per game", which is clearly a hopeful NBA number, and is different than saying that he has averaged that number in Euroleague. Let me rephrase that as "nobody is trying to falsely inflate his actual Euroleague stats".



I don't know whether he will or won't average that in the NBA - as I said, there are factors that would suggest he will average more (game duration, NBA much more liberal with assists) and others that would suggest otherwise (may not spend as much time as primary ball handler). I made the list because you seemed to suggest that about 5 assists per game form the wing was "good" but not "great". I think the list suggests that 5 assists from the wing is "great".



The list included any season during which a player 1) averaged 5.0 assists or better per game, and 2) played at least 1000 minutes, and 3) was in 2000 or later, and 4) the player was NOT primarily considered a guard ("G" or "G-F") by basketball-reference.com. Michael Carter-Williams was almost certainly considered a guard.



Agreed on all.
Believe me, my thesis was never to argue that 5.0 assists was the cut-off point for great vs. good. My thesis was rather that it makes a difference whether Doncic is a great or a good passer from the SF position in determining whether you draft him #2 or not. How one defines a great or good passer from the wing is another question entirely, the question that you've opened. It's a good discussion to have.

Yes, five assists from the wing is pretty great. Not that it necessarily means that the player is great by virtue of that stat (e.g. Batum), but it does seem pretty rare. I'll stand by the Michael Carter Williams comp. At 6'6" he's in the vicinity of length to both Butler and Jackson. He could probably guard a lot of small forwards in today's league. (He can guard any Kings' SF, that's for sure). I see Butler guarding guards (Harden, for example) more than SFs. I guess basketball reference has to make a cut-off somewhere and maybe 6'7" is the cut-off.

One thing I'm wondering about is that 1000 minute criteria. What is the 1,000 minute criterion? Is that over any single season? Over a career?

Apparently, there are no usage stats when it comes to euros, at least none that I've found. If in euro land Doncic is now getting the same touches as a point guard in the NBA, and he's getting 4.3 assists with that usage, then what is going to do at SF in NBA land with more than likely a lower usage rate? I would think usage is a pretty important factor in evaluating his assist capability.
 
Porter winning the MVP at the All-American scrimmage game has zero value or merit. Let's go back ten years and look at some of the MVPs of that scrimmage;

2008 - Tyreke Evans
2009 - Derrick Favors
2010 - Harrison Barnes & Jared Sullinger
2011 - MKG & James McAdoo
2012 - Shabazz Muhammad
2013 - Aaron Gordon
2014 - Justin Jackson & Jahlil Okafor
2015 - Cheick Diallo
2016 - Frank Jackson & Josh Jackson

now you look at that list and see a lot of lottery picks, but none of those players are all-stars and the majority of them are average players and/or role players

This isn't to bash Porter but bringing up the fact that he won the MVP in a scrimmage doesn't tell me a whole lot on a prospect, since we have no College tape on him, we all want him to be something he isn't. I'd gladly eat crow if he turns into a stud SF but I won't sing his praises as a can't miss prospect right now.
Let's not forget about Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Kevin Garnet, Chris Weber, Shaquille O'Neal, or Alonzo Mourning lol. The list is stacked with great players. It's not the be all end all by any stretch. There is no single metric that guarantees greatness. But it's not nothing either, not even close.
 
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