2018 draft fits with this team
- Thread starter sactowndog
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True, but I've gotten criticism for saying that Fox isn't a franchise player, while others are convinced he's a 10x All-Star. If you go with the mindset that he is this 10x All-Star, then you have to build around him. You don't get a DeMarcus Cousins just to pair him with Greg Monroe because you think he's the BPA. Right now, I'm going into this draft with the mindset that the Kings have no franchise player. We have to draft BPA..aka our franchise player. What happens after you draft our franchise player? THEN, it would be the time to start focusing on how players fit around him. This is why I'm open to trading Fox, WCS, etc.
I don't get how any reasonable person would think a Trae Young-De'Aaron Fox backcourt would work out. Why would you play Young alongside a ball dominant PG that can't shoot? On the other hand, why would you play Fox alongside another ball dominant PG that primarily looks to score? Do we just throw defense out the window too? Does anyone seriously think Fox can guard SGs? He struggles just guarding PGs right now. Young is a poor defender in college right now, so I don't think he'd turn into a good one overnight. You also wouldn't draft a backup PG with a top 5 pick. Then when you talk about Doncic, the same conversation of trading Fox would occur. Fox-Doncic would be a better fit, but it's still not anywhere near an ideal pairing. Why is Doncic rated as the #1 prospect by a lot of people? Because he's seen as a 6'7 ball handler who doesn't just make his teammates better, but can also score. If you play him alongside Fox, you're forcing him to be an off-ball playmaker. That's not why he's a #1 pick.
I have nothing personal against Fox. I just think he's an expendable piece. I'm not a big fan of non-shooting PGs. For ex, if you do draft Trae Young, why not trade Fox for a top 10 pick for someone who does fit with Young? Let's be honest. If Fox was as good as some people made him out to be, Young wouldn't even be in this conversation. If you had rookie John Wall, you wouldn't go out looking to draft Kyrie or Kemba a year later.
I don't get how any reasonable person would think a Trae Young-De'Aaron Fox backcourt would work out. Why would you play Young alongside a ball dominant PG that can't shoot? On the other hand, why would you play Fox alongside another ball dominant PG that primarily looks to score? Do we just throw defense out the window too? Does anyone seriously think Fox can guard SGs? He struggles just guarding PGs right now. Young is a poor defender in college right now, so I don't think he'd turn into a good one overnight. You also wouldn't draft a backup PG with a top 5 pick. Then when you talk about Doncic, the same conversation of trading Fox would occur. Fox-Doncic would be a better fit, but it's still not anywhere near an ideal pairing. Why is Doncic rated as the #1 prospect by a lot of people? Because he's seen as a 6'7 ball handler who doesn't just make his teammates better, but can also score. If you play him alongside Fox, you're forcing him to be an off-ball playmaker. That's not why he's a #1 pick.
I have nothing personal against Fox. I just think he's an expendable piece. I'm not a big fan of non-shooting PGs. For ex, if you do draft Trae Young, why not trade Fox for a top 10 pick for someone who does fit with Young? Let's be honest. If Fox was as good as some people made him out to be, Young wouldn't even be in this conversation. If you had rookie John Wall, you wouldn't go out looking to draft Kyrie or Kemba a year later.
Kings can't go wrong with one of these top 5 picks as they would add talent but based on the video and talk on Doncic and if he's on the same level as Ayton, I'd want Doncic. Any one of these 5 or 6 kids would be tremendous but Trae Young means we would have to move him or Fox at some point. I'd rather not go that route as I don't think we get true value,for either one.
Your problem is that you only live in the present. Everything is an absolute for you, which is ridiculous. Players change! Players get better! And, no one I know is saying that absolutely, Fox is going to be an all star. Quit exaggerating. Fox is all potential, and right now, all one can do is guess how good he's going to be. I don't know, and believe me, you don't know. If you've gotten criticism for saying Fox will never be a franchise player, its because you simply have no way of knowing that. I'm tired of listing player after player that wasn't very good their first year in the league, but went on to become all stars, and some became hall of fame players.. To quote a line out of the movie, "Zero Dark Thrity", "You don't know what you don't know".
So as an admittedly biased lover of the big man, my wishlist going into the draft (we're currently number three!!!) has sorta turned out big man heavy.
1. Ayton
2. Bagley
3. Doncic
4. Jarren Jackson (only because Porter's back scares me)
5. Porter
6. Young
The top of this year's draft is looking better and better with each week and the top three dudes are all can't-miss prospects in their own rights but watching more and more Ayton tape, I just don't see anyway you can pass on the dude if you have the first overall pick.
Doncic's achievements are spectacular, especially when you factor in his age but Marvin's just as young and you simply can't teach his game changing explosiveness. A run'n'gun team featuring Fox and Bagley (and Willie) on the break would instantly catapult the Kings up peoples' League Pass rankings.
I'd probably have Young rated higher if the Kings weren't already two deep with good young talent at both guard positions (and taking into account how good Fox has looked since coming back from the quad tear). If we're on the board and he's the only guy of my list left, I probably give a lot of thought to trading down a bit and also snaring a pick in next year's draft while I'm at it.
1. Ayton
2. Bagley
3. Doncic
4. Jarren Jackson (only because Porter's back scares me)
5. Porter
6. Young
The top of this year's draft is looking better and better with each week and the top three dudes are all can't-miss prospects in their own rights but watching more and more Ayton tape, I just don't see anyway you can pass on the dude if you have the first overall pick.
Doncic's achievements are spectacular, especially when you factor in his age but Marvin's just as young and you simply can't teach his game changing explosiveness. A run'n'gun team featuring Fox and Bagley (and Willie) on the break would instantly catapult the Kings up peoples' League Pass rankings.
I'd probably have Young rated higher if the Kings weren't already two deep with good young talent at both guard positions (and taking into account how good Fox has looked since coming back from the quad tear). If we're on the board and he's the only guy of my list left, I probably give a lot of thought to trading down a bit and also snaring a pick in next year's draft while I'm at it.
18/10 and 30/20? That’s true it’s only his third year. Why expect so much.
Sorry, I see WCS as a more athletic Greg Monroe. He scores, poor rebounder, inconsistent defender, and can’t shoot the 3.
A guy that big with 7 boards? Please. Oh, let’s go into how WCS was absolutely abused last night. To me he’s a low bbiq disappointment. My opinion. When the FO has to offer him and extension we’ll see how committed they are to this Beast.
I'm as down on WCS's rebounding as anyone else is but lets remember that he hasn't been playing full time starter minutes. With the news from Joerger, I'd expect him to be averaging at least 32 minutes a night from here on out so the rest of this season should be a good barometer for what WCS can do with full time minutes.
His per36 averages are 16.4 and 8.8 rebounds. If he stays where he's at he should be averaging about 15 and 8 the rest of the way. Not exactly what we want out of him but not dead weight either. If he was averaging more than 1.1 blocks per36, it would be a lot easier to let the rebounding slide...but that's not the case.
Lets just see what he can do from this point forward without the game to game microscope. Go off the average of his last 5 games at a time and see where he's at.
His per36 averages are 16.4 and 8.8 rebounds. If he stays where he's at he should be averaging about 15 and 8 the rest of the way. Not exactly what we want out of him but not dead weight either. If he was averaging more than 1.1 blocks per36, it would be a lot easier to let the rebounding slide...but that's not the case.
Lets just see what he can do from this point forward without the game to game microscope. Go off the average of his last 5 games at a time and see where he's at.
If I may nit pic a bit. First, he does score a basket outside of 5 feet, just not as often as you or I might like, but that may more of a result of the system he's playing in, than lack of ability. He's shooting 33% from the three, which isn't great, but isn't terrible either, but it does show he's capable of hitting that shot. I might add, that his form looks pretty good, so I don't think he needs a total reformation of his shot. Second, he's a very skilled player for a player his size. He has very good handles and is a good passer, I also think he's a smart player that's improving as the season goes along. Let me put it this way, I've seen more improvement in Bagley's game than I have Bamba's. To say he's just a great athlete with no skills, is a huge exaggeration.
There was another player that I wanted the Kings to draft many years ago that fit the same description as Bagley. He was a terrific athlete that ran the floor like a jet and who could jump out of the building. He probably has fewer skills than Bagley at the same point in time. He was a terrible freethrow shooter, and had no game away from the basket. I could argue that Bagley's post game was far better than this players post game. I'm speaking about the Mailman, Karl Malone, who of course is a HOF player. No, I'm not saying that Bagley is the next Karl Malone. I'am saying that you have to be careful about who you pass on. You can't base all of your decision on what you see right now. I would suggest that Malone turned out to be better than Joe Kleine.
Let me be clear. I'm not saying we should draft Bagley. He's not at the top of my want list, but if we walked away with him, I'd still be a happy man.
There was another player that I wanted the Kings to draft many years ago that fit the same description as Bagley. He was a terrific athlete that ran the floor like a jet and who could jump out of the building. He probably has fewer skills than Bagley at the same point in time. He was a terrible freethrow shooter, and had no game away from the basket. I could argue that Bagley's post game was far better than this players post game. I'm speaking about the Mailman, Karl Malone, who of course is a HOF player. No, I'm not saying that Bagley is the next Karl Malone. I'am saying that you have to be careful about who you pass on. You can't base all of your decision on what you see right now. I would suggest that Malone turned out to be better than Joe Kleine.
Let me be clear. I'm not saying we should draft Bagley. He's not at the top of my want list, but if we walked away with him, I'd still be a happy man.
One more thing I'd like to address, and its that Fox is a ball dominate PG. I not really sure where that idea came from. Hill is a far more dominate PG than Fox is. I agree that while on the Kentucky team, he had the ball in his hands a lot. However, he only had one other reliable player to share the ball with and that was Monk. Fox and Monk carried that team as far as they could. Fox's usage percentage on the Kings is 23%, which isn't that high. Willie's is 21% and Randolph's is almost 26%. As a comparison, Dennis Smith's is 28.7%. If you look at most of the top PG's in the league, almost all of then have a much higher usage rate.
James Harden: 35.9%
Kyrie Irving: 31.4%
Damian Lillard: 30.1%
C. J. McCollum: 26.1% (shows that having two high usage users can live together and be successful)
Russell Westbrook: 35.0%
Stephen Curry: 31.3%
Kyle Lowry: 21.6%
John Wall: 29.1%
Goran Dragic: 26.7%
Isaiah Thomas: 34.4%
DeAndre Fox: 23.0%
I think the idea that Fox is somehow a ball hog who dominates the ball simply isn't true. The stats show otherwise, and in my opinion, he passes the eye test as well. He touches the ball a lot, but he also moves the ball. Plus, if you take the time to watch him carefully, he doesn't just go stand in the corner when he's off the ball. He's constantly moving without the ball, unless it's a Randolph or Willie post up. The idea of course is to spread the floor making it harder for the other team to double down. So yes, in those circumstances, he goes to the perimeter.
James Harden: 35.9%
Kyrie Irving: 31.4%
Damian Lillard: 30.1%
C. J. McCollum: 26.1% (shows that having two high usage users can live together and be successful)
Russell Westbrook: 35.0%
Stephen Curry: 31.3%
Kyle Lowry: 21.6%
John Wall: 29.1%
Goran Dragic: 26.7%
Isaiah Thomas: 34.4%
DeAndre Fox: 23.0%
I think the idea that Fox is somehow a ball hog who dominates the ball simply isn't true. The stats show otherwise, and in my opinion, he passes the eye test as well. He touches the ball a lot, but he also moves the ball. Plus, if you take the time to watch him carefully, he doesn't just go stand in the corner when he's off the ball. He's constantly moving without the ball, unless it's a Randolph or Willie post up. The idea of course is to spread the floor making it harder for the other team to double down. So yes, in those circumstances, he goes to the perimeter.
I could see Fox utilized in a Rip Hamilton role in half court offense with a player like Doncic. Fox can initiate the offense, push the pace when it's there, and let Doncic have it if it isn't. To utilize his speed best when we get into a half court set, I think moving off the ball, especially the way he stops on a dime for a jumper, could be deadly.
For those so inclined, you can even do a deeper dive on nba.com for other metrics that indicate "ball dominance," such as dribbles per touch or seconds per touch.
Dribbles per touch here: http://on.nba.com/2mCHwqQ Fox (4.20) doesn't even show up on the first page of results (sorting out those playing less than 10 min/game).
Seconds per touch here: http://on.nba.com/2mC6tCy Likewise, Fox (4.55) doesn't show up on the first page here, either
Of course, you could argue that current figures only show Fox's performance under a system that takes the ball out of his hands too often to maximize his effectiveness.
Dribbles per touch here: http://on.nba.com/2mCHwqQ Fox (4.20) doesn't even show up on the first page of results (sorting out those playing less than 10 min/game).
Seconds per touch here: http://on.nba.com/2mC6tCy Likewise, Fox (4.55) doesn't show up on the first page here, either
Of course, you could argue that current figures only show Fox's performance under a system that takes the ball out of his hands too often to maximize his effectiveness.
I could have posted more numbers, but I didn't want to lose peoples interest. Some people's eye's glaze over when you throw too many numbers at them. Actually, I'm one of them. Are Fox's numbers partially a result of the system he's playing in? I think to some extent, yes. But then it was the opposite at Kentucky, which to my mind shows me he's adaptable. Way too much is made of what a player looks like in his rookie season. I'm really really tired of saying that. Seems to fall on deaf ears. And I'm not saying we shouldn't pay attention to a players performance. I do want to see growth, not regression. But I think we need to lower our expectations a bit.
The player that Fox has been compared to the most out of all the other PG's in the draft is Dennis Smith. Some think that we should have drafted Smith instead. Well, I would argue than neither of them has leaped out in front of the other. Still a pretty even race as far as I'm concerned. The main difference is that I think Smith got the green light a little earlier than Fox, who started to get significant minutes the last seven games.
For the season, here's where they stand right now.
Fox: 26:25 mpg - 10.3 ppg - 10.0 attempts per game - 40.6% fgp - 30.0% 3pp - 69.3% ftp - 4.3 apg - 2.4 to - 1.0 stl's
Smith: 28:12 mpg - 14.3 ppg - 13.9 attempts per game - 39.4% fgp - 32.9% 3pp - 69.3% ftp - 4.5 apg - 2.6 to - 0.9 stl's
Now here are their stats for the last seven games. I picked the last seven because that's when Fox's minutes began to be consistent, instead of 12 minutes in one game, and 22 in the next. So to be fair to Smith, I have his last seven as well. What you want to look for at this point is improvement, and I think both players have improved.
Fox: 31.6 mpg - 14.0 ppg - 12.0 attempts per game - 41.6% fgp - 31.8% 3pp - 75.0% ftp - 6.4 apg - 3.1 to - 1.5 stl's
Smith: 30.0 mpg - 16.7 ppg - 15.2 attempts per game - 39.2% fgp - 34.2% 3pp - 76.9% ftp - 5.4 apg - 2.0 to - 1.4 stl's
To argue that one is significantly better would be hard. Each of them is slightly better in one category or the other, but not enough to be a difference maker. Smith scores few more points, but then he takes a few more shots. Smith's stats aside, I like that Fox's stats went up across the board, and that's what your looking for. I expect, barring an injury, to see more improvement the last 39 games of the year. By the way, Smith has a 28.7% usage rate compared to Fox's 23.0%. He must be a ball hog, no?
The player that Fox has been compared to the most out of all the other PG's in the draft is Dennis Smith. Some think that we should have drafted Smith instead. Well, I would argue than neither of them has leaped out in front of the other. Still a pretty even race as far as I'm concerned. The main difference is that I think Smith got the green light a little earlier than Fox, who started to get significant minutes the last seven games.
For the season, here's where they stand right now.
Fox: 26:25 mpg - 10.3 ppg - 10.0 attempts per game - 40.6% fgp - 30.0% 3pp - 69.3% ftp - 4.3 apg - 2.4 to - 1.0 stl's
Smith: 28:12 mpg - 14.3 ppg - 13.9 attempts per game - 39.4% fgp - 32.9% 3pp - 69.3% ftp - 4.5 apg - 2.6 to - 0.9 stl's
Now here are their stats for the last seven games. I picked the last seven because that's when Fox's minutes began to be consistent, instead of 12 minutes in one game, and 22 in the next. So to be fair to Smith, I have his last seven as well. What you want to look for at this point is improvement, and I think both players have improved.
Fox: 31.6 mpg - 14.0 ppg - 12.0 attempts per game - 41.6% fgp - 31.8% 3pp - 75.0% ftp - 6.4 apg - 3.1 to - 1.5 stl's
Smith: 30.0 mpg - 16.7 ppg - 15.2 attempts per game - 39.2% fgp - 34.2% 3pp - 76.9% ftp - 5.4 apg - 2.0 to - 1.4 stl's
To argue that one is significantly better would be hard. Each of them is slightly better in one category or the other, but not enough to be a difference maker. Smith scores few more points, but then he takes a few more shots. Smith's stats aside, I like that Fox's stats went up across the board, and that's what your looking for. I expect, barring an injury, to see more improvement the last 39 games of the year. By the way, Smith has a 28.7% usage rate compared to Fox's 23.0%. He must be a ball hog, no?
Not to excuse Willie because I think he's capable of rebounding better. But I do think you have to consider how he's being used on both defense and offense. Particularly on defense, he's out on the perimeter plugging holes more than most NBA centers would be. If you focus just on him on the defensive side of the ball, he's playing like a free safety in football, going where he's needed. However I do think he gets caught watching instead of doing at times. I also think he tries to avoid foul trouble a bit to much. His rebounding is improving, and if he got credit for tips, his rebounding would go up significantly. I've always found it interesting that if you tip the ball back at the basket, it's a shot, and a rebound, but if you tip it to a teammate, you get nothing. Bottom line is, he can do better, and I think he will as he gets stronger and fills out his body.
While it's nice that he tries to be active on the defensive perimeter, that isn't where we need him. We are currently last in the NBA in defensive rebounds which I'm sure means that we are towards the bottom of teams that give up the most 2nd chance points. Our center doesn't need to be on the perimeter playing safety when we are that bad.
I know. I get that. WCS has the potential to be a game changing defender and does a great job of stepping out on the perimeter when he has to. I just think it's a bad scheme to try and run right now. Our team is a very poor rebounding team in general. If we had another big down low that could reliably clean the glass then I'd feel a lot better about him spending so much time outside of the key, but we don't. As our most athletic big, his sole focus on defense needs to be guarding the paint and competing down low for every rebound. That is the only scheme that should be ran with him right now IMHO.
I don't think you can go wrong here with Ayton, Bagley or Doncic. All of them are exceptional prospects regardless of fit. Porter is right up there too with the slight drawback of injury concerns. I don't know what the long-term prognosis is for further back issues with him and that's the only reason I've got him slightly lower right now.
We've talked a lot about Ayton and Doncic already, but I've been just as impressed with Bagley. He was supposed to be a senior in High School this year before reclassifying and coming to college a year early which makes his early season dominance that much more impressive. I really like his mobility for a big man -- he should be able to do a lot of the things we're seeing Cauley-Stein do offensively right now: play off the guards, catch the ball in space and attack the basket but with a higher skill level and a better outside jumper. If we really want to play to Fox's strengths and push the pace then Bagley should be in strong consideration for us.
Trae Young is an interesting case because the fit isn't great and I worry that he's just going to be a one-way player. None of these guys excel defensively but with Young you've also got a player who's too small to effectively guard anyone besides PGs man to man and he's not even very good at that right now. On the other hand, he's dominating college competition as a Freshman on a level that I haven't seen in a long time. And talk about the perfect skillset for the current NBA! He just made 10 threes in a game on Saturday! From what I recall, even Steph Curry didn't have "Steph Curry range" as an 18 year old like this kid does. But then you've also got the TOs which are up to over 5 per game! Anything I thought about Jimmer Fredette as an NBA prospect is magnified ten fold with Trae Young. The talent is undeniable -- noone is going to stop him from scoring the ball. That comes with some serious drawbacks though.
And on the same level I've got Mo Bamba -- kindof a one-trick pony but the shotblocking is legit. His 15.8 blk% is better than the Freshman seasons posted by Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid, Karl Anthony Towns, and Myles Turner. Only Whiteside was better. Yes he's very raw offensively although that doesn't mean what it used to. 10 years ago a "raw" bigman prospect couldn't shoot the ball outside of 5 feet -- they were essentially drafted for just being tall. Bamba has made 7 threes so far this year. It's not a big part of his game, but it's there in rough form. All I really ask with a shotblocking specialist is that his impact on the game be tangible whenever he's on the court and that's definitely been the case here. And in that respect, I really don't see much of a downside with Bamba. At minimum you're getting a huge defensive presence in the paint who can set picks and catch lobs on offense. That's been enough to push Utah into fringe playoff contention since they acquired Rudy Gobert.
We've talked a lot about Ayton and Doncic already, but I've been just as impressed with Bagley. He was supposed to be a senior in High School this year before reclassifying and coming to college a year early which makes his early season dominance that much more impressive. I really like his mobility for a big man -- he should be able to do a lot of the things we're seeing Cauley-Stein do offensively right now: play off the guards, catch the ball in space and attack the basket but with a higher skill level and a better outside jumper. If we really want to play to Fox's strengths and push the pace then Bagley should be in strong consideration for us.
Trae Young is an interesting case because the fit isn't great and I worry that he's just going to be a one-way player. None of these guys excel defensively but with Young you've also got a player who's too small to effectively guard anyone besides PGs man to man and he's not even very good at that right now. On the other hand, he's dominating college competition as a Freshman on a level that I haven't seen in a long time. And talk about the perfect skillset for the current NBA! He just made 10 threes in a game on Saturday! From what I recall, even Steph Curry didn't have "Steph Curry range" as an 18 year old like this kid does. But then you've also got the TOs which are up to over 5 per game! Anything I thought about Jimmer Fredette as an NBA prospect is magnified ten fold with Trae Young. The talent is undeniable -- noone is going to stop him from scoring the ball. That comes with some serious drawbacks though.
And on the same level I've got Mo Bamba -- kindof a one-trick pony but the shotblocking is legit. His 15.8 blk% is better than the Freshman seasons posted by Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid, Karl Anthony Towns, and Myles Turner. Only Whiteside was better. Yes he's very raw offensively although that doesn't mean what it used to. 10 years ago a "raw" bigman prospect couldn't shoot the ball outside of 5 feet -- they were essentially drafted for just being tall. Bamba has made 7 threes so far this year. It's not a big part of his game, but it's there in rough form. All I really ask with a shotblocking specialist is that his impact on the game be tangible whenever he's on the court and that's definitely been the case here. And in that respect, I really don't see much of a downside with Bamba. At minimum you're getting a huge defensive presence in the paint who can set picks and catch lobs on offense. That's been enough to push Utah into fringe playoff contention since they acquired Rudy Gobert.
I agree Bagley is a bad man you have to love players with his motor and attitude. With more space in the league he’ll be blowing by bigs and posting up players his size or smaller. Once he gets his mid range game down he’ll be a full flight superstar I see him as a 20-10 guy. Also the front court of Bagley and WCS with Fox would make us the fastest team in the league those 3 would be lethal on the break.
On Young I think if were 5th we have to take him but no way he’d get by Orlando so I wouldn’t worry about that.
I’m not touching Bamba at all give me Jackson whose just as good of a shot blocker
On Young I think if were 5th we have to take him but no way he’d get by Orlando so I wouldn’t worry about that.
I’m not touching Bamba at all give me Jackson whose just as good of a shot blocker
I think we can assume that Willie is playing the way the coaching staff wants him to play. Our perimeter defense is bad enough without removing Willie from the picture. It's sort of pick your poison. But I think some of you guys believe that the players have carte blanche to go out and play anyway they want. That's not the case. Willie and everyone else on the team is doing what asked of them. Of course they make mistakes at times, but when, where, and how you play is decided by the coaching staff.