Who do we draft?
- Thread starter Folsomkingsfan
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Am I the only one not ready to immediately jump on the Ntilikina train? I think he's a very very raw player far from being polished. Yes all guys are raw, but Ntilikina is super raw, especially for a PG.
He's got amazing size, somewhere around 6'5 with a 7'0 wingspan. He uses his length to disrupt offenses and shows some flashes as a lock down defender. On offense, he's become a good 3pt shooter this year after being forced to play off-ball in his Pro A team. His passing was really solid in the U-18s.
However, there are negatives to his game. He's not a good ball handler right now. His handles are still lose, and it's not tight for a PG. Despite being 6'5 with good size and solid quickness, he plays extremely soft around the rim. He's not a great attacker nor finisher right now. He doesn't know how to use his size to his advantage on offense. As a shot creator, he's really limited because he doesn't have handles to break anyone down, and his quickness doesn't make up for it. He has a long nice stride, but doesn't have a quick first step. As a playmaker, he's just average. I don't see natural PG skills from him.
I see lots of flashes of Exum, except Exum was more athletic, quick(amazing burst), and had an inside game(not out). Ntilikina will be a big project, and my biggest concern with him is that I don't know if he can translate into a PG at the next level. Just because Exum couldn't develop as a PG, doesn't mean Ntilikina can't, but there's way too many parallels.
He's got amazing size, somewhere around 6'5 with a 7'0 wingspan. He uses his length to disrupt offenses and shows some flashes as a lock down defender. On offense, he's become a good 3pt shooter this year after being forced to play off-ball in his Pro A team. His passing was really solid in the U-18s.
However, there are negatives to his game. He's not a good ball handler right now. His handles are still lose, and it's not tight for a PG. Despite being 6'5 with good size and solid quickness, he plays extremely soft around the rim. He's not a great attacker nor finisher right now. He doesn't know how to use his size to his advantage on offense. As a shot creator, he's really limited because he doesn't have handles to break anyone down, and his quickness doesn't make up for it. He has a long nice stride, but doesn't have a quick first step. As a playmaker, he's just average. I don't see natural PG skills from him.
I see lots of flashes of Exum, except Exum was more athletic, quick(amazing burst), and had an inside game(not out). Ntilikina will be a big project, and my biggest concern with him is that I don't know if he can translate into a PG at the next level. Just because Exum couldn't develop as a PG, doesn't mean Ntilikina can't, but there's way too many parallels.
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I'd really like to see Koufos moved in the offseason for a pick so we can open up minutes for Cauley-Stein & Papagiannis at C next year.
The 2018 draft class has many talented big men. I think we'll need Labissiere, Cauley-Stein, & Papagiannis to log as many minutes as they can next year to give us a good idea of who we should keep long term and potentially increase the value of these young guys in trades. For instance, if all three players look promising next year and we're in a position to draft a big like Ayton in 2018, perhaps we're using Papagiannis or Cauley-Stein as a trade chip to upgrade the perimeter. Now I'm not saying we would have to trade one of them, but moving Koufos for a pick should 1) make us a worse team (better pick next year), 2) allow Labissiere, Cauley-Stein, & Papagainnis more time to develop in-game, 3) give us a better idea of what we actually have in these young men and who fits with our core going forward, 4) potentially up the trade value of these 3 guys if they continue to progress/play like they have been this season, & 5) give us another young player via the pick we received by moving Koufos.
Like many, I'm expecting us to end up with Smith/Ntilikina & Isaac/Bridges (which I'd be happy with at this point). With our 2nd (and the pick we could get for Koufos), I'd like to take Jawun Evans & Jonathan Motley/Jonathan Jeanne/Josh Hart/Dillon Brooks. That would be a good haul from this draft.
In FA, I'd let Afflalo & McLemore go and sign Isaiah Cousins to a 3 year deal and Lawson to a 2 year deal with the 2nd year being a team option. Lawson's passing & playmaking ability would be good to have to not only make the lives easier for the young guys he plays with (Hield, Richardson, Isaac, Labissiere, Cauley-Stein, etc.) but to also help mentor and teach the PG position to our young PGs (Ntilikina, Evans, & Cousins).
That would put us at 15 players (Lawson, Ntilikina, Evans, Cousins, Hield, Richardson, Galloway, Isaac, Temple, Gay, Labissiere, Tolliver, Motley, Cauley-Stein, & Papagiannis). If Bogdanovic was wanting to come over, I'd go ahead and waive Galloway to make room for him. Then we'd have this team going into next year:
PG - Lawson / Ntilikina / J. Evans / I. Cousins
SG - Hield / Bogdanovic / Richardson
SF - Isaac / Temple / Gay
PF - Labissiere / Tolliver / Motley
C - Cauley-Stein / Papagiannis
Then after Gay comes back and reestablishes some value, I'd try moving him for a future pick (potentially a 2019 pick to replace the one we will lose) so we can continue with the youth movement. After the 2017-18 season, we'd have these players guaranteed to be back for the 2018-19 season with another 1st round pick & 2nd round pick in the 2018 draft:
PG - Ntilikina / J. Evans / I. Cousins
SG - Hield / Bogdanovic / Richardson
SF - Isaac
PF - Labissiere / Motley
C - Cauley-Stein / Papagiannis
The 2018 draft class has many talented big men. I think we'll need Labissiere, Cauley-Stein, & Papagiannis to log as many minutes as they can next year to give us a good idea of who we should keep long term and potentially increase the value of these young guys in trades. For instance, if all three players look promising next year and we're in a position to draft a big like Ayton in 2018, perhaps we're using Papagiannis or Cauley-Stein as a trade chip to upgrade the perimeter. Now I'm not saying we would have to trade one of them, but moving Koufos for a pick should 1) make us a worse team (better pick next year), 2) allow Labissiere, Cauley-Stein, & Papagainnis more time to develop in-game, 3) give us a better idea of what we actually have in these young men and who fits with our core going forward, 4) potentially up the trade value of these 3 guys if they continue to progress/play like they have been this season, & 5) give us another young player via the pick we received by moving Koufos.
Like many, I'm expecting us to end up with Smith/Ntilikina & Isaac/Bridges (which I'd be happy with at this point). With our 2nd (and the pick we could get for Koufos), I'd like to take Jawun Evans & Jonathan Motley/Jonathan Jeanne/Josh Hart/Dillon Brooks. That would be a good haul from this draft.
In FA, I'd let Afflalo & McLemore go and sign Isaiah Cousins to a 3 year deal and Lawson to a 2 year deal with the 2nd year being a team option. Lawson's passing & playmaking ability would be good to have to not only make the lives easier for the young guys he plays with (Hield, Richardson, Isaac, Labissiere, Cauley-Stein, etc.) but to also help mentor and teach the PG position to our young PGs (Ntilikina, Evans, & Cousins).
That would put us at 15 players (Lawson, Ntilikina, Evans, Cousins, Hield, Richardson, Galloway, Isaac, Temple, Gay, Labissiere, Tolliver, Motley, Cauley-Stein, & Papagiannis). If Bogdanovic was wanting to come over, I'd go ahead and waive Galloway to make room for him. Then we'd have this team going into next year:
PG - Lawson / Ntilikina / J. Evans / I. Cousins
SG - Hield / Bogdanovic / Richardson
SF - Isaac / Temple / Gay
PF - Labissiere / Tolliver / Motley
C - Cauley-Stein / Papagiannis
Then after Gay comes back and reestablishes some value, I'd try moving him for a future pick (potentially a 2019 pick to replace the one we will lose) so we can continue with the youth movement. After the 2017-18 season, we'd have these players guaranteed to be back for the 2018-19 season with another 1st round pick & 2nd round pick in the 2018 draft:
PG - Ntilikina / J. Evans / I. Cousins
SG - Hield / Bogdanovic / Richardson
SF - Isaac
PF - Labissiere / Motley
C - Cauley-Stein / Papagiannis
First of all, he plays in and entirely different, and much stronger league than Exum played in. Secondly, I have no idea what the word raw means. You've used it on very skilled players, which is confusing. Maybe young is the word your looking for, because he's only eighteen. Is there risk involved in drafting him? Yeah, sure, but there's also risk in drafting Fox. The difference is, I've seen Fox play over 20 times this year, and I can't say that for Ntilikina. I have watched a lot of film on him, but it's not the same. So my knowledge of him is limited.
I do know that many scouts are high on him and his potential. He is a very good athlete, and has a good feel for the game. How all that will translate to the NBA is anyone's guess. He's not my first choice, but I do think he's a better choice than Smith Jr., who scares the hell out of me. So if that's my choice, I'm taking Ntilikina.
I do know that many scouts are high on him and his potential. He is a very good athlete, and has a good feel for the game. How all that will translate to the NBA is anyone's guess. He's not my first choice, but I do think he's a better choice than Smith Jr., who scares the hell out of me. So if that's my choice, I'm taking Ntilikina.
In the sense of raw when describing Nitlikina, I mean that he's not ready to contribute in the NBA as a PG day 1. Not all 19yearolds are, but you have guys like Fultz, Ball, Smith Jr. and Fox who can make day 1 impacts. I don't think that'll be Ntilikina. I think there's going to be a bigger learning curve for him because he's still learning to play PG. His Pro A team is forcing him to play off-ball, and that hurts him.
I think he may need a few years under his belt before we can actually start to see the type of player he could eventually shape out to be. Just as an example, Skal vs. Papagiannis. Skal needs to continue to work on a lot of his game, but we're starting to see what type of player he could eventually become in the NBA. With Papagiannis, it's still difficult to get a grasp of his game. To give a lot of credit to the Kings, they've done a tremendous job in helping our rookies progress. Maybe Ntilikina's learning curve isn't as big as I presume it to be, but I think it is. On-ball skills leave a lot to be desired.
If we draft him, then we'll need to bring him over immediately. I think his team is wasting his talents by not developing him properly as a PG.
I think he may need a few years under his belt before we can actually start to see the type of player he could eventually shape out to be. Just as an example, Skal vs. Papagiannis. Skal needs to continue to work on a lot of his game, but we're starting to see what type of player he could eventually become in the NBA. With Papagiannis, it's still difficult to get a grasp of his game. To give a lot of credit to the Kings, they've done a tremendous job in helping our rookies progress. Maybe Ntilikina's learning curve isn't as big as I presume it to be, but I think it is. On-ball skills leave a lot to be desired.
If we draft him, then we'll need to bring him over immediately. I think his team is wasting his talents by not developing him properly as a PG.
Having watched what little footage I could of Frank, I dont think he will struggle as much to adapt as some seem to think. He has flaws for sure but so do all the other prospects.
It also comes down to what your looking for from your PG. He sees over most other guards and his height and length are well suited to hitting cutters and rollers in the paint. He can spread the floor with his outside shot and help keep the paint open for our bigs to work. Then there is defensive potential. His wingspan and instincts provide opportunities to run of of steals. If he gets switched onto their SG he is not at a disadvantage,etc.
I think he will be fine. After a missed layup in practice he dropped and did push ups, surprising his coach. He wants to be great.
It also comes down to what your looking for from your PG. He sees over most other guards and his height and length are well suited to hitting cutters and rollers in the paint. He can spread the floor with his outside shot and help keep the paint open for our bigs to work. Then there is defensive potential. His wingspan and instincts provide opportunities to run of of steals. If he gets switched onto their SG he is not at a disadvantage,etc.
I think he will be fine. After a missed layup in practice he dropped and did push ups, surprising his coach. He wants to be great.
Yeah, I agree with all of this. If you go from watching Fox and Smith Jr. to watching Ntilikina the gap in ball-handling ability and footspeed is very apparent. Ntilikina is going to need a few years before he'll look good playing PG full-time I think. Until then he'll be a spot shooter, occasional ball handler, and defensive role-player. If you bring him along slowly though I think he can be a very good PG down the line and that's what matters to me, not day one production. The NBA is more pick and roll dominated now than it's ever been and a big PG who can shoot and see over the defense has a lot of natural advantages in pick and roll situations. He's almost the exact opposite of Fox on offense -- the outside shot looks good (if a little slow on the release timing) but he'll probably struggle to shed defenders unless he tightens up his handle.
I've heard the Dante Exum comparison before -- both guys are big guards with excellent defensive potential but I think the comparison ends there. Exum is a fast twitch athlete who struggles with his shooting consistency. Ntilikina should have value as a spot shooter right away. I'm a little worried about his adjustment to the pace of the NBA game but he doesn't need speed to be effective. James Harden picks defenses apart with a deliberate pace, shifty stop-start dribble moves, and an uncanny ability to play into contact. That's a lofty goal for Ntilikina but it's just an example of how a player with good court-awareness and the right offensive system can really flourish without explosive dribble drives or eye-popping athleticism. And you have to like Ntilikina's potential on defense. He can smother ballhandlers with his combination of length and lateral quickness. It's curious that he looks a step or two slower on offense than he does on defense -- could be the loose handle or it could be how his coaches want him to play. But regardless, if you covet two-way players like I do then Ntilikina demands consideration as high as #5 overall I think. He's got enough tools on the offensive end (jump shot, court-vision, long strides in space) to find a role as a facilitator/shooter and you add to that the lockdown potential and positional versatility on defense and you've got a player I can get excited about.
I've heard the Dante Exum comparison before -- both guys are big guards with excellent defensive potential but I think the comparison ends there. Exum is a fast twitch athlete who struggles with his shooting consistency. Ntilikina should have value as a spot shooter right away. I'm a little worried about his adjustment to the pace of the NBA game but he doesn't need speed to be effective. James Harden picks defenses apart with a deliberate pace, shifty stop-start dribble moves, and an uncanny ability to play into contact. That's a lofty goal for Ntilikina but it's just an example of how a player with good court-awareness and the right offensive system can really flourish without explosive dribble drives or eye-popping athleticism. And you have to like Ntilikina's potential on defense. He can smother ballhandlers with his combination of length and lateral quickness. It's curious that he looks a step or two slower on offense than he does on defense -- could be the loose handle or it could be how his coaches want him to play. But regardless, if you covet two-way players like I do then Ntilikina demands consideration as high as #5 overall I think. He's got enough tools on the offensive end (jump shot, court-vision, long strides in space) to find a role as a facilitator/shooter and you add to that the lockdown potential and positional versatility on defense and you've got a player I can get excited about.
Well, he led his team to victory in the tournament while playing lead guard, and did it while battling the flu. He has very good BBIQ and is more of a pass first PG. Maybe too much so for my liking, but at his age, if he coachable, that shouldn't be a problem. Also, with the type of offense the Kings are running, a PG that plays off the ball, AKA Mike Bibby, isn't a bad thing. His weakness of course is lack of strength, which contributes to his struggles to finish at the basket at times. His ballhandling looks fine to me, except that he gets a little reckless with the ball once in a while, which is correctable. He doesn't have that explosive first step like Fox, Fultz, or Smith, but I personally don't think that its that big a deal. Something nice to have, but not necessary to be a good PG.
As for being able to step in and start, or make an impact right away, I don't think any of them are ready to have the reins handed to them just yet. There's going to be a learning curve for who ever we draft, regardless of position. How will said player look two years from now should be the question. If a PG, maybe three years from now. It took Steve Nash almost five years to get his act together. The one player that scares me is Smith. I'll say it again, I'm not sure he has the drive or desire that some of the others have. There were games where he just stood and watched on defense. If that's OK for you (not you personally), than fine. But it's not OK for me.
I'd still be OK with trading both our picks to move up and get a top three player. Takes two to tango of course...
As for being able to step in and start, or make an impact right away, I don't think any of them are ready to have the reins handed to them just yet. There's going to be a learning curve for who ever we draft, regardless of position. How will said player look two years from now should be the question. If a PG, maybe three years from now. It took Steve Nash almost five years to get his act together. The one player that scares me is Smith. I'll say it again, I'm not sure he has the drive or desire that some of the others have. There were games where he just stood and watched on defense. If that's OK for you (not you personally), than fine. But it's not OK for me.
I'd still be OK with trading both our picks to move up and get a top three player. Takes two to tango of course...
Don't know why, but for some reason everyone seems to be underestimating Ntilikinia's athleticism. He's a very good athlete who can play above the rim. He may not be as explosive as either Smith or Fox, but he just as good an athlete, if not a better athlete than Ball. He has terrific lateral quickness and unlike Smith, great length. He's a better shooter than Smith and Fox, at least right now. I'm not really promoting Ntilikina, but I don't want people to get the impression that he's a poor athlete, because he's not. No, he's not as fast as Fox, but then who is?
Like you, I'm more interested in who will be the best player two or three years from now, and if I had to put my money on either Smith or Ntilikina, I would choose the latter. Fox is a different story. I'd love to have him but my gut tells me that he's moved out of our reach. Would have helped if Minny had won last night. It looks like it may come down to a coin toss for the 7th spot.
Like you, I'm more interested in who will be the best player two or three years from now, and if I had to put my money on either Smith or Ntilikina, I would choose the latter. Fox is a different story. I'd love to have him but my gut tells me that he's moved out of our reach. Would have helped if Minny had won last night. It looks like it may come down to a coin toss for the 7th spot.
I've said it many times. It's desire that makes great players. Of course you have to have the god given tools, but if you do, and you put in the work, your going to be a good player, and maybe a great player. And regardless of god given tools, if you work hard, your going to get better. The idea is to reach your ceiling, whatever that is. I like hard workers, and I can't tolerate quitters or players that are willing to accept less than they can be. Sounds like Ntilikina is willing to put in the hard work.
Just from guessing, maybe lack of athleticism could be tied in with his average first step? Ntilikina is a very good athlete though. In transition, he looks like mini-Greek Freak.
I agree with you guys. End product is what we're focused on. The Kings' recent surge of developing ability gives me hope with any players we draft.
I agree with you guys. End product is what we're focused on. The Kings' recent surge of developing ability gives me hope with any players we draft.
Pretty much everyone would look unathletic compared to Fox and Smith. I didn't mean to imply that Ntilikina isn't a good athlete, just that he's not a guy who blows you away with his first step acceleration from a standstill, stop on a dime change of direction moves, or ability to explode to the rim like he's shot out of a cannon. The NBA has got some of the greatest athletes in the world. In that context I would rate Ntilikina's athleticism as average like Lonzo Ball's. It's not a problem, but it is a factor in the draft. Everybody needs skill to play this game but certain players have the added advantage of also being a step faster than everyone else. You still need to be able to play, but 'best in your position' athleticism doesn't hurt. See for instance Russell Westbrook. That's all I was trying to say. I don't think he's unathletic in a way that will hurt him, but he doesn't look like a guy who can just run past everyone or jump over them either which means he needs to be that much better with his ball skills to put pressure on the defense. I think that likely limits his ceiling a bit as a scorer but you never know. As I said before, it doesn't seem to matter with James Harden. And there are tons of examples of eye popping athletes who flamed out of the league because they didn't have the skills to match. I was really only pointing that out as a way of saying "I understand why his highlights might underwhelm some people, but athleticism isn't everything and there are other measures where he does look like an elite prospect". Elite enough to draft him in the top 5? I think so. I hope we have a chance to get him with one of our picks. At 7 or 8 where we are now I agree with you that it's very unlikely De'Aaron Fox is still a possibility for us.
Yeah I knew where your comment was coming from. It was to point out that being a hard worker doesnt guarantee success. While this is true, it does guarantee being the best you can be within your potential. My point about the mental aspect was I think Bens potential is capped because of it, despite being a gym rat. It seems pretty clear how the rest of his career will go.
With regards to Frank N. I think the point was the effort to work hard (drive) is there (same as Ben) , however the skill and physicality are as yet unproven. But you can probably check the box for drive to be great that some players seem to lack.
@kingsboi
In fact your last sentence is a misnomer. All the drive in the world will precisely allow you to reach your potential. Lack of talent as you mentioned just limits how far that drive can take you.
With regards to Frank N. I think the point was the effort to work hard (drive) is there (same as Ben) , however the skill and physicality are as yet unproven. But you can probably check the box for drive to be great that some players seem to lack.
@kingsboi
In fact your last sentence is a misnomer. All the drive in the world will precisely allow you to reach your potential. Lack of talent as you mentioned just limits how far that drive can take you.
Look I am not sure who was a better shooter but there is a clear difference in approach in European basketball and the NBA. People think that the teams are more oriented to stars like they are in the NBA. This is quite often not true. Teams in Europe are built to play team game and in a lot of ways be an equal opportunity offense. Of course there are exceptions as there will be more plays called for more established stars.
Young players, unless they are playing on a team known for developing young players and giving them big responsibilities (e.g. Mega) they are played as role players, no matter how talented they are. Frank is 18/19 years old. For a team not known for their player development, he is not going to get many shots. Bogdanovic was the most talented youngster at Partizan when he was 18 but he was riding the pine more often than not and did not get many opportunities to shoot and this is for a club that is well known for player development throughout Europe.
Young players, unless they are playing on a team known for developing young players and giving them big responsibilities (e.g. Mega) they are played as role players, no matter how talented they are. Frank is 18/19 years old. For a team not known for their player development, he is not going to get many shots. Bogdanovic was the most talented youngster at Partizan when he was 18 but he was riding the pine more often than not and did not get many opportunities to shoot and this is for a club that is well known for player development throughout Europe.
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