Were in total agreement on Jackson. I think he has star written all over him, maybe superstar, but I don't want to lay that on the kid. He's improved dramatically this season, and I love the intensity he plays with. I'd grab him in a heartbeat. On Ball we disagree. First, never let school allegiance sway your opinion on a player. If you watched the Kentucky/UCLA game, and you wern't impressed with Ball, then I'm not sure anything I say will change your mind. All I can say, is that the main, and maybe the only reason UCLA is as good as they are is because of Ball. He has singlehandedly put UCLA on his shoulders and made them what they are.
Would I take Ball over Fultz or Jackson? I'm not sure. Whomever gets the first pick in the draft has that decision to make, and unlike other years, I don't think it's a slam dunk decision. Down the road, the best PG in this draft may end up being Fox. I doubt it, but that's how talented these players are. In all likelyhood, there will be five PG's picked in the top ten. That's a very rare occurrence.
All that aside, I'm done talking about the politics of the Kings. I'm not interested in talking about how good or bad Kings management is. I can't do a damm thing about it, so it's wasted energy, and energy wasted on a distasteful subject. It serves no purpose other than to get people upset. I can get that at home watching the news on television. But let me say this. All we as fans know, are the results. Someone is traded or their not. We win a game, or we don't. Amazingly, if we all watch the game, and have the same visual information right in front of us, we seldom agree on what caused the result.
So, how then do we come to any logical conclusion on why a trade is made, and whether a better deal could have been done, when we have little to no information on the process that made it happen? It's sort of like sitting on our front lawn watching our neighbors come and go, and then posting on line what we think of our neighbors. We have no idea what happens when they close the front door. We lack information. So, I think ifs fair to be critical of the result, but without knowing all the other details, it's hard to know the why's, when's and what's of the situation. Now if I knew that Cousins pulled a Charles Hayley on Vlade's car, then I might know the why.
I definitely need to watch Ball play more, I'll admit that. I don't have a lot of free time lately and I'm loathe to spend it watching a team I, well, loathe when there are so many other games I could be watching instead. I
am impressed by him, I didn't mean to give the impression that I'm not. But I'm not as impressed as everyone else seems to be. Of the PGs at the top of the draft this year, right now I'd rank them Fultz, Fox, Ntilikina, Smith, then Ball in terms of my preference. Fultz is a guy that could be a league MVP candidate. Just an A+ talent. Your eyes are drawn to him whenever he's on the court. I like Josh Jackson a little more for the reasons I mentioned before, but talentwise it's a wash. Fox and Ntilikina I like a lot because they're two-way players who will contribute as much or more on defense as they contribute on offense. That's always a big plus in my book and it's the only reason why I have them a step above Dennis Smith Jr. who is also a
very impressive prospect but doesn't have the same impact on defense right now. He's going to sell a crap ton of jerseys once he starts popping up on Sportscenter highlights though.
As for Ball, he's clearly a top 10 pick in any circumstance. Top 3? Not for me right now. I'm probably exaggerating my anti-Bruin bias just a bit. By the time of the draft I've never had much trouble looking at everybody objectively. And if a player jumps out to me at the college level as a sure-fire NBA star I don't care what jersey he wears. I'm not quite sure yet what about his game bothers me exactly. His standout skill is passing ability and I will say flatout that it's been a long time since I saw a player who can throw pinpoint outlet passes like Ball can. He seems to know where he wants to throw the ball before he's got it in his hands more often than not which is a special talent. Here's the thing though, we just traded our star player. If you draft Ball and put him on a team with nobody he's going to have to become a scorer and I don't see that going well for him out of the gate. Now maybe other people say context doesn't matter, draft the best player and figure the rest out later but practically speaking I think you have to create an environment where a player
can succeed first. And as a franchise we've failed miserably at that for almost our entire history.
I'm looking at a lot of different things when I watch prospects -- but the biggest factor to me is always how I see them fitting into the NBA game which is a lot different than the college game. Since I'm only interested in trying to project these guys into NBA roles not rank them according to their success in college, what a guy can do on the court isn't as important to me as how he does it. I haven't really tried to figure out precisely why I'm less impressed with Ball as a prospect than everyone else seems to be, but I could attempt to come up with an explanation. It could be that he doesn't accelerate and explode to the rim like Fultz, Smith, or Isaac. You know elite athleticism when you see it and Ball is a good athlete but not a great one. It could be that I don't see him having the same impact on defense as Jackson, Fox, or Ntilikina. He's long and he's got quick hands but he's also stick skinny and doesn't seem to take contact very well. He obviously makes his teammates better right now with his passing but is that going to translate to the next level? Not necessarily. If he can't get his shot off against stronger, faster defenders and he can't finish through contact it's going to be harder for him to spread the ball around like he is now. Also, I've watched him play 3 full games so far and in those 3 games he has combined for 17 turnovers. That's 5.6 TOs per game! This guy is supposed to be the next great PG? Not if he can't do a better job of valuing possessions. Just a small sample size fluke? I don't think so. USC and Kentucky are both loaded with NBA level defenders at the guard positions and he's going to be facing that level of pressure on a nightly basis.
Put another way, I have no doubts about those six guys I mentioned excelling in the NBA but I have some about Lonzo Ball and I have some about Jayson Tatum. I reserve the right to change my opinion before the draft of course, but right now they're both a level below for me for that reason. So it's not that I don't think Ball is a great prospect, I just don't think he's a can't miss player and I don't rank him above Jackson, Fultz, Fox, Ntilikina, Smith, or Isaac. I may even take Tatum over him if I need a go-to scorer (which we do).
For me personally though, these discussions have started to feel like a giant waste of time. Not because of the Cousins trade exactly, that's just the final straw. It's not fun having the entire message board call my judgement into question every year just because I don't listen to any of the pundits and I don't care where other mock drafts rank these players. It's also not fun watching this team go the complete opposite direction of what I would do in 9 out of 10 years either. The only Kings draft I was truly happy with since I've started following it (around 2002 or so) was the Cousins/Whiteside draft and that's completely down the toilet now. If past history is any indication, this team could have the #3 pick and they'll still pass on a half dozen players I really like and take someone like Malik Monk instead. Not that he isn't a great prospect in his own right, but they just traded a hall of fame big man for Buddy Hield after already spending 3 of their last 4 lottery picks on SGs so it begs the question where they expect him to play. Best player available has it's limits -- if you've got 1 core player you should really think long and hard before committing your one shot at drafting a star for the year on a guy who plays the same position.