I was looking at what the other reportedly interested teams can offer. I am sure I overlooked some scenarios but this is what I came up with:
DEN: Jamal Murray and Kenneth Faried for Millsap (Projected Odds of Happening: 0%)
Murray is more than the Nuggets want to give up and Faried is owed 13M and 14M after this year. But Faried would have to be included for salary purposes. I don't see other ways to get it done unless Nuggets include Gallo or Chandler. I just don't see a lot of ways for the Nuggets and Hawks to make a deal that works for both sides.
NOP: Jrue Holiday (or Tyreke) and Alex Ajinca and 2017 #1 pick for Millsap (Projected Odds: 5%)
Holiday and Tyreke are expiring. Ajinca is serviceable back-up but I'd rather take a flyer on Willie if I were the Hawks. The only young player the Pelicans have on their roster the Hawks would want is Buddy Hield, and the Pelicans are not trading him. The competition here amounts to an expiring, a back-up center and a 2017 #1 pick. The Pelicans pick would be the highest pick the Hawks are likely to get. So if they have their sights set on pending draft, this trade may hold some appeal.
TOR: Corey Joseph Patrick Patterson and Jared Sullinger (and #1 pick?) for Paul Millsap (Projected Odds: 15%)
Patterson and Sullinger are expiring. Corey Joseph is a good PG who signed for 3/ 23 last summer. The Raptors could also include a future #1. If I am the Hawks, Joseph, a 2017 #1 pick and a couple of expiring is pretty good. That's a lot to give up for the Raptors unless they are confident they can re-sign him, but this could work for both teams. The Hawks preference to trade Millsap to the West.
EDIT: After reviewing this, I think the Hawks may want more, given the 2017 #1 pick will be low 20s. They would likely ask for a 2019 #1 pick too, and which point the Raptors would balk.
SAC: Rudy Gay and Willie Cauley-Stein for Paul Millsap (Projected Odds: 100% )
Willie needs to play in an uptempo system. That's not going to happen here as long as Joerger is around. If the Hawks plan to be a running team, maybe Willie can find a home there. I don't see where the Hawks or any team would have any interest in Ben. I just don't see it. So although both Ben and Willie have played B-A-D underlined and bolded, I think Willie has some value while Ben has none.
The Hawks may be asking for Malachi or Skal or both, and Vlade would rightfully be reluctant to include either of these two. He conceded too much (2019 unprotected to 76ers) in deal with Hinkie, and the fear among Kings fans is he would do the same again for a player who can walk in 4 months. I don't think he should include Richardson, Skal or Papa, for that matter. But I think if he has to surrender Papa to get it done, then....
Would Hawks do expiring who they could flip (Gay), Willie and Papa for Millsap? Even though they probably don't want two centers, a team in rebuild mode is in asset acquisition mode, so adding Papa and Willie and Gay (to flip to OKC or Clippers?) would be a nice haul.
The new CBA, increasing the likelihood Boogie will stay a King for life, diminishes the value of Papa, whom when drafted I think was a contingent plan if Boogie was traded or gave indication he would not resign. So after this quick analysis, I think Kings and Raptors have the edge on Millsap. There's urgency for the Kings compared to Raptors since the Raptors seeding is secure (currently 2nd in East) while the Kings status is tenuous at best. If the Kings are going to make this deal it needs to happen fast. The sooner he is added, the sooner he becomes acclimated for playoff push. If trade talk gets dragged out, then there becomes a point when making the trade becomes pointless or self sabotaging, that is, presuming the losses continue to mount without him.
DEN: Jamal Murray and Kenneth Faried for Millsap (Projected Odds of Happening: 0%)
Murray is more than the Nuggets want to give up and Faried is owed 13M and 14M after this year. But Faried would have to be included for salary purposes. I don't see other ways to get it done unless Nuggets include Gallo or Chandler. I just don't see a lot of ways for the Nuggets and Hawks to make a deal that works for both sides.
NOP: Jrue Holiday (or Tyreke) and Alex Ajinca and 2017 #1 pick for Millsap (Projected Odds: 5%)
Holiday and Tyreke are expiring. Ajinca is serviceable back-up but I'd rather take a flyer on Willie if I were the Hawks. The only young player the Pelicans have on their roster the Hawks would want is Buddy Hield, and the Pelicans are not trading him. The competition here amounts to an expiring, a back-up center and a 2017 #1 pick. The Pelicans pick would be the highest pick the Hawks are likely to get. So if they have their sights set on pending draft, this trade may hold some appeal.
TOR: Corey Joseph Patrick Patterson and Jared Sullinger (and #1 pick?) for Paul Millsap (Projected Odds: 15%)
Patterson and Sullinger are expiring. Corey Joseph is a good PG who signed for 3/ 23 last summer. The Raptors could also include a future #1. If I am the Hawks, Joseph, a 2017 #1 pick and a couple of expiring is pretty good. That's a lot to give up for the Raptors unless they are confident they can re-sign him, but this could work for both teams. The Hawks preference to trade Millsap to the West.
EDIT: After reviewing this, I think the Hawks may want more, given the 2017 #1 pick will be low 20s. They would likely ask for a 2019 #1 pick too, and which point the Raptors would balk.
SAC: Rudy Gay and Willie Cauley-Stein for Paul Millsap (Projected Odds: 100% )
Willie needs to play in an uptempo system. That's not going to happen here as long as Joerger is around. If the Hawks plan to be a running team, maybe Willie can find a home there. I don't see where the Hawks or any team would have any interest in Ben. I just don't see it. So although both Ben and Willie have played B-A-D underlined and bolded, I think Willie has some value while Ben has none.
The Hawks may be asking for Malachi or Skal or both, and Vlade would rightfully be reluctant to include either of these two. He conceded too much (2019 unprotected to 76ers) in deal with Hinkie, and the fear among Kings fans is he would do the same again for a player who can walk in 4 months. I don't think he should include Richardson, Skal or Papa, for that matter. But I think if he has to surrender Papa to get it done, then....
Would Hawks do expiring who they could flip (Gay), Willie and Papa for Millsap? Even though they probably don't want two centers, a team in rebuild mode is in asset acquisition mode, so adding Papa and Willie and Gay (to flip to OKC or Clippers?) would be a nice haul.
The new CBA, increasing the likelihood Boogie will stay a King for life, diminishes the value of Papa, whom when drafted I think was a contingent plan if Boogie was traded or gave indication he would not resign. So after this quick analysis, I think Kings and Raptors have the edge on Millsap. There's urgency for the Kings compared to Raptors since the Raptors seeding is secure (currently 2nd in East) while the Kings status is tenuous at best. If the Kings are going to make this deal it needs to happen fast. The sooner he is added, the sooner he becomes acclimated for playoff push. If trade talk gets dragged out, then there becomes a point when making the trade becomes pointless or self sabotaging, that is, presuming the losses continue to mount without him.
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