It is time for this team to roll. We need this game tonight! The last two games have been epic in terms of swerving the car back into the road when it was on the verge of veering off the cliff into the abyss of despondency.
Koufos and Cousins didn't work, and I will be the first to admit I was wrong. I thought these guys could mesh in slow down pace with both guys in better shape and high-low offense, but there was not just enough space in the key for the team to flow offensively, and guys like Lawson and A-Slow-o room to operate.
But complete analysis includes pointing out Boogie is having his best start to a season ever (BY FAR!) so he was NOT slowed playing aside KK. Koufos missed SO many frigging easy shots, so I wonder if that is attributed to playing with Cousins or you know, just missing SO many frigging easy shots!
In other words, if this guy had any degree of touch within 5 feet, a simple ability to catch the basketball, and flip with any amount of skill, he'd be making 60% of his FGs and probably still a starter.
But it's time for this team to put that line-up behind us and roll with these starters:
PG - Collison
SG - Affalo
SF - Rudy
PF - Barnes
C - Boogie
Our bench is now three guards (Ben, Temple, Ty) and Koufos, with Tolliver and Willie as high fivers. That's a 9-man rotation that can get good spacing with first and second units but I wonder where the boards are going to come from with our bigs out of the rotation. If Joerger continues to roll with this rotation, our biggest PF at any and all times is Barnes or Rudy.
I don't think you can get away with this rotation against bigger teams. You are gonna get hammered on the boards. But maybe that's a concession we have to make to get the most out of our talent base. (?) Or Joerger turns back to guys fallen out of favor. Probably the latter but his lack of confidence in Omri and Willie is justified.
When the Kings got off to a 9-6 start under Malone, they were led by the trifecta of Collison, Rudy and Cousins, playing like stars. The same is occurring now except (1) Collison was late to the party and (2) the role players have been largely woeful to mediocre. So instead of 9-6, those numbers are reversed.
If your supporting cast steps up, this is a trio of stars you can win 45-50 games in a weakened West, presuming their level of performance continues:
- Boogie 57% TS and 1.2 asst to TO, 28 PER (Cousins is playing fairly brilliant basketball, fun to watch)
- Darren 59% TS 2.4 asst to TO, 14 PPG. 17 PER (same efficient scoring rate as last year, better passing stats)
- Rudy 58% TS 1.3 asst to TO, 20 PPG and 20 PER (besides coming up empty @ POR and 1-2 other crunch time moments, Rudy has been great)
So this is the makings of a playoff team but when you delve deeper into the stats, there is basis for consternation.
The Kings rank 15th in offensive efficiency with a 54.6 TS%. What does that tell you about the supporting cast when the TS is 54.6% relative to the efficiency at which our top 3 guys are scoring? It tells me the other guys have NOT been very good!
(Temple is 58% TS but besides him the other guys are mostly bricking).
If our role players give us more with the new rotation, especially Ben, Lawson and Affalo, we move into Top 10 team in offensive efficiency. This is one way to get our record to .500 and higher. The other means to respectability is improved defense. Currently we are 28th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency. So much for Joerger as a defensive guru
The good news is we are middle of the pack defending the three pointer, thanks to Temple and Affalo and Ty being more aggressive around the arc. But we are middle of the pack in TS% allowed and below average in rebound rate. The bottom line is we are not getting enough stops and clearing the defensive boards.
From my perspective, the hope is the new rotation, effectively amounting to Koufos as back-up, and Willie benched, will result in better spacing and pace leading to better offensive execution and more times forcing the opponent to half-court sets and better defensive efficiency. I don't see how we improve our rebounding rate, but we can become a better defensive team overall by becoming more efficient offensively.
This is basically where the team stands, on the precipice of respectability if they keep moving incrementally in favorable direction with roles more clearly delineated and synergistic.