Gay and Collison for Goran Dragic???
- Thread starter ockingsfan
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I don't see how waiting until half of the season is over gets a higher value for Gay. Instead of one whole season, you get a half season for whatever you send to the Kings. If a team is interested in using Gay in the playoffs, they should get him now so that he can become integrated into their system and by the time April comes around he doesn't have to think through his role, just do it. The longer they wait, the less Gay's impact will be for their team, and therefore the less value they will be willing to pay for him.
Then again some stats get completely overblown because they take situation out of the equation. It's like how win share is the go to stat for so many when in a different situation the numbers could look completely different when related back to an individual player impact.
I think Miami used some of those statistics to throw all they could to land Dragic and in the end, they got a player that isn't really much more than Darren Collison is. Go figure.
We're not going to be able to trade Rudy Gay for comparable value. He's an expiring contract so any team will be able to sign him in the off-season without giving up assets. He's also openly asked (pleaded?) for a trade so our negotiating leverage is nil. What might happen though is that some team which is fighting for playoff position or attempting to replace an injured starter or looking forward to a difficult match-up with Cleveland or Golden State could be willing to give us an extraneous piece to add a solid veteran player for the post-season. All we're likely to get out of that is a rookie contract player who is out of the rotation or a draft pick.
As recently as this past off-season I'd thought New Orleans might be interested in a Tyreke Evans trade considering they picked up Buddy Hield in the draft and Lance Stephenson in Free Agency and Tyreke is going to be a free agent himself and can't seem to stay healthy. They remain very thin at SF, but the word is out now that the Kings have to trade Gay so why give up a valuable player? Just wait until we get desperate and dump some roster filler on us at the deadline. Ugh.
As recently as this past off-season I'd thought New Orleans might be interested in a Tyreke Evans trade considering they picked up Buddy Hield in the draft and Lance Stephenson in Free Agency and Tyreke is going to be a free agent himself and can't seem to stay healthy. They remain very thin at SF, but the word is out now that the Kings have to trade Gay so why give up a valuable player? Just wait until we get desperate and dump some roster filler on us at the deadline. Ugh.
The reason is that as teams get closer to the deadline, their level of desperation, for lack of a better word, goes up. Teams typically want to see how they fit together at the beginning of a season before making a trade, which depresses value now. Teams often have a hard time gauging whether they will be in contention for a title or just scuffling into the playoffs, so time makes things clearer. Also, injuries happen and teams that are in competition get sudden holes.
It's probably true that the NUMBER of suitors goes down at the deadline, because teams that are out of it won't be interested, but it's not the number of teams that determines the value of a player, it's how much that one team that really needs him is willing to pay.
There are bound to be several teams who are right now figuring out who they have and what they need, who at the deadline will be looking for that one piece to put them over the top. And that's when you take them to the cleaners.
It's probably true that the NUMBER of suitors goes down at the deadline, because teams that are out of it won't be interested, but it's not the number of teams that determines the value of a player, it's how much that one team that really needs him is willing to pay.
There are bound to be several teams who are right now figuring out who they have and what they need, who at the deadline will be looking for that one piece to put them over the top. And that's when you take them to the cleaners.
You're obviously sold on what you believe. Good for you. But dismissing what I used in support of the comparison I made doesn't help your case at all. You've not proven that Goran Dragic is anything more than a slightly better version of Kings era Beno Udrih or that he's worthy of trading 2 starting players for.
First you went on blast saying that I didn't support the comparison I made (even though I referenced their averages earlier) and now that I provided you with something concrete, it's quickly dismissed as archaic. Go figure.
Better go tell the each of the online sports sites that still list those stats prominently, including the NBA and ESPN, to take them down because twslam07 says they are meaningless and oh so 80's and 90's.
First you went on blast saying that I didn't support the comparison I made (even though I referenced their averages earlier) and now that I provided you with something concrete, it's quickly dismissed as archaic. Go figure.
Better go tell the each of the online sports sites that still list those stats prominently, including the NBA and ESPN, to take them down because twslam07 says they are meaningless and oh so 80's and 90's.
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This has precisely been my point. Patience often has it's virtues. Count me in the small minority that is willing to wait things out in the hopes of landing a much better deal than the one being currently discussed.
I don't care what advanced stats twslam07 or anybody else wants to pull out of their sleeve, Goran Dragic isn't much if any better than Darren Collison. Whatever difference there is isn't enough to justify including another starting caliber player for. If they aren't able to find a better deal by February, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to have the extra cap room to try to extend Boogie down the road and try to acquire some players via free agency. Yeah, Yeah, I know the argument is that nobody wants to come here. But they'll find a way to spend the $$, trust me.
I don't care what advanced stats twslam07 or anybody else wants to pull out of their sleeve, Goran Dragic isn't much if any better than Darren Collison. Whatever difference there is isn't enough to justify including another starting caliber player for. If they aren't able to find a better deal by February, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to have the extra cap room to try to extend Boogie down the road and try to acquire some players via free agency. Yeah, Yeah, I know the argument is that nobody wants to come here. But they'll find a way to spend the $$, trust me.
K
Was Beno not putting up those numbers on crap teams? (e.g Mike James 20 & 5) Meanwhile Dragic as a starter and with Bledsoe missing carried a super average Suns team to 48 wins in arguably one of the toughest seasons ever in the West where not eve 48 wins was enough for a playoff spot. I think more teams would be a lot more successful with Dragic as a starter rather than Beno, to me those stats are a bit misleading they show Beno was a very good back up PG but to put him on Dragic level I don't think so. Dragic made an All-NBA team as a PG which is literally the hardest position to make one in.
But i'm with you in that we can get a better deal elsewhere.
But i'm with you in that we can get a better deal elsewhere.
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From Stein's piece
Maybe it's best for both parties to just split up at this point. It's obvious that the Kings did Gay wrong with the contract extension, and it's obvious that he's not happy here.
Just doesn't make sense to keep him at this point. I don't see how we can change his mind either. His intentions are to opt out. Maybe this Dragic trade isn't so bad?
Kings are clearly the most dysfunction organization in the league.... Have mixed feelings about all of this. According to Stein's piece, Miami isn't ready to do the trade yet though. So I guess we'll be waiting.
Maybe it's best for both parties to just split up at this point. It's obvious that the Kings did Gay wrong with the contract extension, and it's obvious that he's not happy here.
Just doesn't make sense to keep him at this point. I don't see how we can change his mind either. His intentions are to opt out. Maybe this Dragic trade isn't so bad?
Kings are clearly the most dysfunction organization in the league.... Have mixed feelings about all of this. According to Stein's piece, Miami isn't ready to do the trade yet though. So I guess we'll be waiting.
They are still used today because they are simple to follow and interpret, so for the average fan who doesn't dive deep into analytics (which appears to be you) it's easy to understand & follow. Appealing to the masses doesn't make it more useful, it usually just means it's convenient and simple.
Those with a deeper knowledge of the game don't put as much stock into inputs. They put more stock into outputs. Feel free to keep arguing your inputs if it helps you sleep at night.
The fact of the matter is that Dragic was 19th in the league last year (5th among PGs) for RAPM (arguably one of the best stats to show a players value) and you somehow think he's equivalent to SAC Udrih?
Let's also keep in mind that the "simple stats" you use as "evidence" do absolutely no justice to the defensive side of the ball (which is advantage Dragic by a wide margin). You call me out for disregarding stats and choosing what goes with my argument, but then you post stats that basically omit 50% of the game. Go figure...
Those with a deeper knowledge of the game don't put as much stock into inputs. They put more stock into outputs. Feel free to keep arguing your inputs if it helps you sleep at night.
The fact of the matter is that Dragic was 19th in the league last year (5th among PGs) for RAPM (arguably one of the best stats to show a players value) and you somehow think he's equivalent to SAC Udrih?
Let's also keep in mind that the "simple stats" you use as "evidence" do absolutely no justice to the defensive side of the ball (which is advantage Dragic by a wide margin). You call me out for disregarding stats and choosing what goes with my argument, but then you post stats that basically omit 50% of the game. Go figure...
All valid points. And I wasn't intending to drag this into a Beno versus Dragic debate. I too believe that Dragic is/was the better player. He's just not so over the top better that he's worth the $17-$19M he's contracted to make the next few seasons nor is he worth 2 of the Kings current starting players regardless whether or not they are FA's at seasons end. That was the big picture point.
And yes, I truly believe the Kings can get a better deal if they hold on to these guys until closer to the trade deadline. For all the reasons Capt. Factorial outlined.
And yes, I truly believe the Kings can get a better deal if they hold on to these guys until closer to the trade deadline. For all the reasons Capt. Factorial outlined.
To add on to this, it also matters who you are playing with as there are only a finite number of rebounds per each individual game. Which is a big reason why I'm not really concerned with WCS rebounding numbers: Playing with Cousins, a top 5 rebounder, is going to limit his rebounding opportunities by the sheer fact we have a guy who grabs a ton of rebounds already. This also allows us to let him play "Free-Safety" and the freedom to challenge shots all over the court because we know Cousins will be in great position for the box-out.
It's already happening. Because you know, math and logic being far more concrete than what your eyes tell us. The average NBA fan is getting way smarter about how to analyze these players. Still not quite there (obviously by your foolhardy defense against stats that don't really mean anything) but major sports sites are slowly but surely adjusting to more accurate numbers.
You are going way out on a ledge with this one. Simple counting stats like points per game et al are not just for casual fans -- they also decide All-Star spots, All-NBA teams, MVP and Rookie of the Year awards, and player contracts. Lebron James doesn't make $30 million a year because GMs are impressed with his Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus -- it's because he's the best player in the league and it's no coincidence that he also fills up a standard box score more impressively than any of his peers.
We've had this argument before, but your attitude appears to be that any stat which hasn't been developed in the past 5 years to take advantage of computer assisted player tracking technology is beneath you and irrelevant to "enlightened" analysis. You may think this puts you in a class with only the most cutting edge and well-respected analysts but actually it puts you in a very small minority of analytics devotees who (1) actually understand how this data is calculated and how to apply it intelligently and (2) believe that the results it produces are superior to all conventional methods. That's not intended as an insult, I just don't think you realize how small that group is. By your definition at least 95% of the people watching, coaching, managing, or playing professional basketball are ... for lack of a better word... wrong. You really have to produce the goods if you're going to make that kind of an assertion and the jury is still out on the long-term effectiveness of a lot of this information.
Also, there are ways to measure defensive potential besides DRPM, DRAPM, and the unreliable but not totally useless eye test. I've already explained why I like the Defensive Rating stat developed by Dean Oliver in 2004 (not the 80s and 90s) -- it can be calculated based on information we have that dates back 40 years so there's a much bigger sample of data to compare it to (and thereby judge it's effectiveness) and it routinely produces results which align with common sense (which is often not true of ESPN's Real Plus Minus, for example). And Dean Oliver's Defensive Rating has actually ranked Dragic as a slightly below-average defensive player for most of his career. You have to go all the way back to the 2011-2012 season in Houston to find a year where he even rated as above average within the context of his own team not to mention the rest of the league.
I also think you're revealing your bias by dismissing the Udrih comparison so completely. Particularly in the 2010-2011 season, Sacramento Udrih was a well above-average player in the league. Was he elite? No. Was he an All-Star? No. But he was a very respectable starting PG who basically held his own on defense and produced a good number of points very efficiently. I think you could apply a similar description to The Dragon. Dragic has never been an All-Star though he has won a single All-NBA third team ranking. That single season was exceptional, no doubt about that, but he hasn't been able to sustain .600+ TS% before or since. If you want to ignore 7 seasons of data and focus on 1 than sure, Udrih isn't in the same class of player as Dragic. But if you look at the big picture? He's not that much better than Beno's career peak which coincided with his last two seasons in Sacramento.
We've had this argument before, but your attitude appears to be that any stat which hasn't been developed in the past 5 years to take advantage of computer assisted player tracking technology is beneath you and irrelevant to "enlightened" analysis. You may think this puts you in a class with only the most cutting edge and well-respected analysts but actually it puts you in a very small minority of analytics devotees who (1) actually understand how this data is calculated and how to apply it intelligently and (2) believe that the results it produces are superior to all conventional methods. That's not intended as an insult, I just don't think you realize how small that group is. By your definition at least 95% of the people watching, coaching, managing, or playing professional basketball are ... for lack of a better word... wrong. You really have to produce the goods if you're going to make that kind of an assertion and the jury is still out on the long-term effectiveness of a lot of this information.
Also, there are ways to measure defensive potential besides DRPM, DRAPM, and the unreliable but not totally useless eye test. I've already explained why I like the Defensive Rating stat developed by Dean Oliver in 2004 (not the 80s and 90s) -- it can be calculated based on information we have that dates back 40 years so there's a much bigger sample of data to compare it to (and thereby judge it's effectiveness) and it routinely produces results which align with common sense (which is often not true of ESPN's Real Plus Minus, for example). And Dean Oliver's Defensive Rating has actually ranked Dragic as a slightly below-average defensive player for most of his career. You have to go all the way back to the 2011-2012 season in Houston to find a year where he even rated as above average within the context of his own team not to mention the rest of the league.
I also think you're revealing your bias by dismissing the Udrih comparison so completely. Particularly in the 2010-2011 season, Sacramento Udrih was a well above-average player in the league. Was he elite? No. Was he an All-Star? No. But he was a very respectable starting PG who basically held his own on defense and produced a good number of points very efficiently. I think you could apply a similar description to The Dragon. Dragic has never been an All-Star though he has won a single All-NBA third team ranking. That single season was exceptional, no doubt about that, but he hasn't been able to sustain .600+ TS% before or since. If you want to ignore 7 seasons of data and focus on 1 than sure, Udrih isn't in the same class of player as Dragic. But if you look at the big picture? He's not that much better than Beno's career peak which coincided with his last two seasons in Sacramento.
Sure, because you say so. I've read enough of your wisdom over the years to take your input very lightly. Thanks for participating though.
The comparison is a valid one. You've done nothing to disprove it. All I keep getting from you and twslam07 is the infamous Donald Trump tactic of "WRONG!"
You guys are sounding more and more like graduates of the Vivek Ranadive school for arrogant dismissive little chaps, as Geoff Petrie would put it.
Oh no you didn't!
Fantastic post. You outlined it far better than I could. Needless to say, I couldn't agree more. It's spot on. I'll respectfully bow out of the debate from here as there's nothing more I could add to the exclamation point you just handed out.
The comparison is a valid one. You've done nothing to disprove it. All I keep getting from you and twslam07 is the infamous Donald Trump tactic of "WRONG!"
You guys are sounding more and more like graduates of the Vivek Ranadive school for arrogant dismissive little chaps, as Geoff Petrie would put it.
Oh no you didn't!
Fantastic post. You outlined it far better than I could. Needless to say, I couldn't agree more. It's spot on. I'll respectfully bow out of the debate from here as there's nothing more I could add to the exclamation point you just handed out.
.I don't like our chances at the trade deadline. Take into account, we'd be desperate as well. We might jump on to first offer, since there won't be much of suitors or a luxury to choose from.
If the Kings miss a trade by that time, they'd miss the whole season. But right now time is on our side to make an extra trade, if Rudy trade goes wrong. The Kings can do that, right?
If the Kings miss a trade by that time, they'd miss the whole season. But right now time is on our side to make an extra trade, if Rudy trade goes wrong. The Kings can do that, right?
Acting out of desperation is never a good thing. There's absolutely no reason for desperation or to be impatient. If they can negotiate a really good trade, great. If one doesn't materialize, it's not the worst thing in the world to get the extra cap room. They're going to need to try extend DeMarcus at some point and still acquire some better fits for Coach Joerger's system. There will be plenty of players looking to get paid and if you can offer more than other teams, you always have a shot. Not every player will spurn the Kings for less $$ elsewhere as a few others have done. Plus there's the new arena with state of the art facilities to help with recruiting. That wasn't the case before.
I should note that there is absolutely no evidence whatsoever of Vlade panicking into much of anything. He went the entire torturous season last year and didn't flinch. And it sounded like he was looking hard too, but did not find what he wanted. He's held his water for months this summer despite it being widely known he's shopping guys. no deal has been made, even up to now on the verge of the season. There is no evidence of Vlade panicking into error at all. In fact its pretty clear if its not a deal he likes its not happening.
Our offense seems to be concentrated on playing off of the elbow and posting up certain players when advantageous (e.g. Afflalo on Lou Williams). A few people on our team are capable of playing on the elbow + posting up, and Rudy is one of them. He is critical to the system, and we are more likely to have a better season with him + Collison because of the proposed system. I do not know if it is the case, but if Dragic is as ball-dominant as Rondo... well, I just don't want to see Last Year Part 2. This year, the system will better use Rudy and use the point guards less. I just want a good year of basketball. The players are already familiar with the system, we don't need to shake things up. Best case scenario, Rudy or a decent free agent notices that the system in SAC works, and signs with us.
It's amazing to me to see the narrative so different now on Beno than it was back then on KF's and other places.
I was one of the small group of KF's defending Beno's contributions to the team - most people were content to lob blame on him and ignore what he did do.
Where were all these statistics backing up Beno's play back then?
Maybe if he was championed more (instead of demonized), he may not have been traded for salty chips, the priveledge of drafting later, and the ghost of John Salmons
I was one of the small group of KF's defending Beno's contributions to the team - most people were content to lob blame on him and ignore what he did do.
Where were all these statistics backing up Beno's play back then?
Maybe if he was championed more (instead of demonized), he may not have been traded for salty chips, the priveledge of drafting later, and the ghost of John Salmons
It's true, time and perspective have certainly changed things. I don't remember exactly how I felt about Beno at the time but I'm almost certain that I didn't give him enough credit. Mostly because he wasn't Mike Bibby or because I still thought we needed a superstar at every position. You live and learn. I was very mad about that draft day trade when it happened but in retrospect... it's a whole lot worse! The Maloofs were already in stealth slash and burn mode by then though, so not much of what happened between 2010 and 2013 made sense from a basketball point of view. I may be confusing my former Kings, but I believe King Westphal I's last words before he fell on his own sword were "my Kingdom for a Beno!"
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