Free Agency

[Sac.Kings]

I don't like Ben as our starter and I'm not thrilled about AA either.

You said: "Hit your shots, don't let your man decimate you, and provide leadership/toughness".

So Afflalo is better at hitting shoots but because of his shot-selection he has exactly the same TS% as Ben and while he is the better offensive player is production amounts to the 51th highest PER among SG's out of 76- better than Ben, but still pretty bad- another example is him being 42th amongst SG's in ORPM with -0.67, again pretty terrible but better than Ben.

About his defense by all accounts he's pretty terrible- players shoot 1.4% better on him which is the same as Ben but while AA's mark is the worst on the Knicks outside Calderon, Vujacic and rookie Grant- while Ben was about average as it relates to our team.
DRPM puts AA as 84th out of 96th SG's which is beyond terrible, while Ben ranks 39th.
DBPM has AA with -2.4 while Ben is -1.2.
So by the numbers (and my eye test if you trust it ) Ben is the better defender, he isn't good but he's better.

I'm gonna take the provide leadership as looking at team production while he played.
So +/- has AA at -2.1 which is the worst mark on the Knicks other than Grant and our beloved D-Will, while Ben is a +0.3 which is 2nd best on our team after DMC.
And if you look at real plus-minus AA ranked 80th amongst SG while Ben was 56th.

So I don't like both of them starting and while there is a chance AA will rebound if I say that I also have to respect the chance Ben will develop.

DBPM has AA at -1.8 and Ben at -1.2 (not that large of a difference, but still better than what you are making it seem)

BPM (box plus minus) has AA at -2.4 and Ben at -3.2 (not sure where in the world you are getting +0.3 for Ben - which site are you using?)

 

[Bricklayer]

Oh poopoo. Deal got 100x better with this.

Sam Amick ‏@sam_amick
Also on Kings front, a key update on Arron Afflalo deal: only $1.5 million is guaranteed in the 2nd year of his two-year, $25 mil deal

And we pulled the same trick with Tolliver -- only $2 million guaranteed. In other words we see these guys as complete stopgaps because we couldn't get any better, and have maintained maximum flexibility to try it over next year.

So, 1 solid SG, 1 late rotation stretch 4, about $14-$15mil left now. Could leave Rondo still in play. Or another guard. There's a Rudy trade, etc.

 

[Amit149]

DBPM has AA at -1.8 and Ben at -1.2 (not that large of a difference, but still better than what you are making it seem)

BPM (box plus minus) has AA at -2.4 and Ben at -3.2 (not sure where in the world you are getting +0.3 for Ben - which site are you using?)

You're right about DBPM, Ben is still better but I accidently took AA's BPM instead of his DBPM.

Look at what you bolded- I talked about +/- (I used NBA.com), not BPM.
If you take basketball-reference on/off numbers they show a similar picture- Ben is a very good +4.8 and AA is -1.6.

BPM actually shows what I said- AA is the better offensive player, Ben is better defensively- and both objectively suck

 

[jcwkings]

So that leaves us with enough cap space to match Seth. Gotta feel Ben, Kosta, Rudy are being shopped.

 

[Sac.Kings]

Defensive Win shares are beyond meaningless. Amit saved me the time of having to post why you're off-base here

Then look at the other stats, like real +/- ... still in favor of AA. I don't know how anyone can look at this as a bad deal and be in favor of Ben still. You guys must really enjoy the empty hole at the SG spot.

 

[206Fan]

And we pulled the same trick with Tolliver -- only $2 million guaranteed. In other words we see these guys as complete stopgaps because we couldn't get any better, and have maintained maximum flexibility to try it over next year.

So, 1 solid SG, 1 late rotation stretch 4, about $14-$15mil left now. Could leave Rondo still in play. Or another guard. There's a Rudy trade, etc.

I think if this year doesn't work out, Cousins is gone by the trade deadline. Both contracts are basically structured to where we could waive them next year, if this year doesn't work out. Very interested to see who the Kings sign next. It wouldn't surprise me if it is Waiters, but on a longer contract. 4 years or so.

 

[LA King Fan II]

Hmm. Saw afflalo struggle with shot last year a little. Maybe hurt. No way he will miss the key wide open shots Ben's been missing for three yeats. Tolliver OK I guess. I have high hopes for the trade we know is lurking. Personally I'd love Milsap instead of Rudy in the starting lineup.

 

[Sac.Kings]

You're right about DBPM, Ben is still better but I accidently took AA's BPM instead of his DBPM.

Look at what you bolded- I talked about +/- (I used NBA.com), not BPM.
If you take basketball-reference on/off numbers they show a similar picture- Ben is a very good +4.8 and AA is -1.6.

BPM actually shows what I said- AA is the better offensive player, Ben is better defensively- and both objectively suck

We will just have to wait until the season starts. I look at AA as exactly what he is... a stopgap and most likely by the middle of the season after next, Bogdan will most likely be starting anyway.

On a unrelated note to our conversation, Vlade is a smart man. Great cheap moves to hold us over until next year, as Brick pointed out. Nicely done. Didn't kill us financially.

 

[Livinthedream]

I think if this year doesn't work out, Cousins is gone by the trade deadline. Both contracts are basically structured to where we could waive them next year, if this year doesn't work out. Very interested to see who the Kings sign next. It wouldn't surprise me if it is Waiters, but on a longer contract. 4 years or so.

There is definitely a feel of preparation for if Cousins leaves via trade or free agency.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

I don't hate the kid and I would be first in line to eat crow if he shows us something. It's not like I don't want him to succeed.

And we can tell, because that really comes across anytime you post about him.

 

[swisshh]

The biggest unknown right now is what you can get in trade to answer the the PG hole. The market for Rudy/Kosta on their current deals should be good, but who has the pieces to offer the Kings what they want?

 

[Amit149]

Then look at the other stats, like real +/- ... still in favor of AA. I don't know how anyone can look at this as a bad deal and be in favor of Ben still. You guys must really enjoy the empty hole at the SG spot.

No it's not- BPM has AA's better, but RPM (real +/-) is better for Ben and both +/- (NBA.com) and on/off numbers (basketball reference) has Ben as a far better player.
I still think AA is a slightly better player- but he's not that great.

We will just have to wait until the season starts. I look at AA as exactly what he is... a stopgap and most likely by the middle of the season after next, Bogdan will most likely be starting anyway.

On a unrelated note to our conversation, Vlade is a smart man. Great cheap moves to hold us over until next year, as Brick pointed out. Nicely done. Didn't kill us financially.

Yeah we're not killed financially but we are also not significantly better right now (moves can happen to change that) and this season is kind of a big deal for us if we want to keep Cousins... and from the draft to FA it feels like Vlade has started to plan for the day after Boogie.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

I think if this year doesn't work out, Cousins is gone by the trade deadline.

What makes you think that we'd even be able to tell by the trade deadline? We were still in the running for the sixth seed at the trade deadline this season.

 

[Sac.Kings]

And we can tell, because that really comes across anytime you post about him.

I judge him on his body of work thus far, which is to say his unimpressive body of work. However, not once have I ever said I don't want him to succeed. Why wouldn't I want him to succeed? His success would mean our success. I always hope for the best, but he's had so many chances we can't afford losing games because of him any longer.

Who knows, maybe AA can teach him a thing or two.

 

[The_Jamal]

Oh poopoo. Deal got 100x better with this.

Sam Amick ‏@sam_amick
Also on Kings front, a key update on Arron Afflalo deal: only $1.5 million is guaranteed in the 2nd year of his two-year, $25 mil deal

Wow. Having a cap guy in the FO might actually make a difference eh?

Tolliver is only $2mil guarenteed next season too.

 

[206Fan]

What makes you think that we'd even be able to tell by the trade deadline? We were still in the running for the sixth seed at the trade deadline this season.

I think his value will drop significantly if we hold onto him till the offseason. Even though we were still running for 6th seed last season, I think everyone knew it wasn't going to workout with Karl. I wonder what the goal is to be by the trade deadline. Is it to be .500? What if everythings been going great, but we're not quite at .500? It's nice to see that Vlade does have a lot of options in front of him. He did a great job by making sure of this. Not upset at our draft picks anymore. They were all clearly drafted for the future.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

I think his value will drop significantly if we hold onto him till the offseason.

Well, short of a catastrophic injury, I don't think that Cousins' value will drop at any point in time, so we're probably at an impasse there.

 

[Entity]

Ok we got another vet big now. Sac/Phx trade. Gay, Kufous, Maclemore. For PJ Tucker, Bledsoe, Goodwin

 

[King Baller]

This is why I think the Thompson/Landry dump was dumb by Vlade. Landry's 6million contract looks like chump change right now. JT's contract was only guaranteed like 2million last year, and unguaranteed for the rest of the years. You can't tell me there wouldn't be at least 1 team in the NBA WILLING to have Landry for a 2nd rounder.

I guess bidding against ourselves with signing Rondo to a 10million deal was worth it. Yea, because we improved our win total by 4 games?

Hopefully he can avoid dumbass trades this year.

Give it up, Landry is about done with his NBA career and JT is a 5th or 6th Big on a good team Rondo at 10 was a bargain.

 

[The_Jamal]

I think his value will drop significantly if we hold onto him till the offseason. Even though we were still running for 6th seed last season, I think everyone knew it wasn't going to workout with Karl. I wonder what the goal is to be by the trade deadline. Is it to be .500? What if everythings been going great, but we're not quite at .500? It's nice to see that Vlade does have a lot of options in front of him. He did a great job by making sure of this. Not upset at our draft picks anymore. They were all clearly drafted for the future.

We'll see what happens with trades, but we've clearly geared this off-season to a potential post-Cousins future. We've been saying that this is our last year to convince Cousins to stay long-term. The draft and now not committing to anyone with long-term money clearly shows we have an eye after next season. Which is good planning... What good is Courtney Lee at $15mil or Ryan Anderson at $20 mil for 4 years if Cousins leaves after next season?

I'm still not ruling out a Cousins trade this off-season. Everything we've seen thus far shows a plan for 2-3 years down the line. Not towards the next 2 season with Cousins

 

[The_Jamal]

ESPN sources say Sacramento and Indiana have had recent trade discussions involving Kings F Rudy Gay potentially sending him to the Pacers

So that Indy blogger that people were writing off yesterday seems to have been right. I've severely changed course on this offseason from Vlade in the past 10 minutes... Don't fail me now big fella!

 

[Mike]

Unless Vlade pulls off a trade, then I can see Cousins counting down the days until he's a free agent. Afflalo and Toliver are solid players, but not really the caliber we needed this off season to boost us into play off contention.

 

[biltalent]

Wow. Having a cap guy in the FO might actually make a difference eh?

Tolliver is only $2mil guarenteed next season too.

Catanella seems to very good at turning good assets into better assets.

Draft: in a bad draft at the top, turned 8th pick into 13th, 28th, a secound rounder and rights to Bogdanovic.

Fa: in a bad FA class, overpayed a little for vets to get them on 1 year deals so that we have the cap space again in a better class if we want.

 

[Amit149]

Marc Stein ‏@ESPNSteinLine 6m6 minutes ago
Sacramento still has interest in Monta Ellis -- its top free-agent target last summer -- but Indy is said to prefer dealing Rodney Stuckey.

Marc Stein ‏@ESPNSteinLine 48s48 seconds ago
Sources maintain Rudy Gay, no matter what happens with Indy, is right there with Greg Monroe in terms of proven players available via trade.

 

[Blob]

Afflalo a sort of sidegrade you hope is a lil better than Marco. Not a major change, but not a major contract investment either.

If he's only a lil better than Marco, he's going to be a bust and not move the needle in the least.

 

[Livinthedream]

Catanella seems to very good at turning good assets into better assets.

Draft: in a bad draft at the top, turned 8th pick into 13th, 28th, a secound rounder and rights to Bogdanovic.

Fa: in a bad FA class, overpayed a little for vets to get them on 1 year deals so that we have the cap space again in a better class if we want.

It's called patience. If we had that 3 years ago, we wouldn't be worried about Cousins leaving right now.

 

[lwc]

Is Monta Ellis better than Rudy Gay? I'm not so sure.

 

[SacTownKid]

What is it with this MF'ing Monta Ellis zombie that won't die. Gay for Ellis? Vlade, you'd have to be on crack.

 

[Blob]

Glad we were not willing to pay 20M for Ryan Anderson. That harden + Anderson defense for the rockets is going to be all sorts of bad.

The cap is going to over $100M, so to pay your 3rd or 4th best player 1/5th of your cap is reasonable outlay. Ryan Anderson would have filled the role currently occupied by Rudy (+6M in salary; 20M vs 14M), and I think he would have done a better job, because his skill set to pull away big men from the paint would give Boogie room to operate, drive and kick and go to work down low. Sending guards to double on Boogie (when necessary) is a mixed bag, whereas if opponents send a big guy that can seal him off more readily. You couldn't have done that with Anderson. The other thing is Boogie is turning into quite the face-up player. When lanes close off to prevent the finish, its nice to options spotting on the perimeter. That's why I think he would have been worth $20M.

As an aside, Anderson had a couple of down years dealing with a personal tragedy, the suicide of his girlfriend. I think he's mourned that lost (two years is about the time it takes to get over the loss of a loved one) and he's ready to play the best ball of his career. Too bad it won't be with us.

 

[Gary]

not a fan of the two players we got today. but I guess they are just stopgap players. Paid too much for the first year though. I doubt either of them are going to get major minutes. Well maybe Afflalo might get 20 or so...