1-2 is going to be Simmons and Ingram in some order. Then you have 5 teams drafting above us who need bigs. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the big guys projected to go a little later like Ellenson, Poetl, and maybe even Chriss or Labissiere sneak up there. They all measured out very well at the combine. The Celtics have so many guards already they almost have to go big here. Who knows with Phoenix - they may just scrap everything but Booker and start over. Minnesota could take pretty much anything. Finding a frontcourt partner for Towns seems likely but I expect them to take Dunn if Phoenix doesn't. LaVine at PG didn't work and they're stacked with young guys most everywhere else. The Pelicans need a SG, SF, or C. Buddy Hield would be great for them or Jaylen Brown. The Nuggets have Mudiay but Dunn could play SG and they swap defensive assignments. I would be very jealous of that backcourt too. Tough to predict. I would be pleasantly surprised if we have a shot at either Dunn or Brown but we need 5 teams to pass on them and I expect Denver to pick whichever one is still on the board. At that point it would be Luwawu or the best of the bigs for me.
Luwawu is too skinny, can't create his shot, won't defend well. He's a project I don't want any part of. Henry Ellenson is a Top 7 guy to me. He's got size and skill and more than conventional plodder. Poetel is a mid first rounder as far as I can tell. Mediocre athlete and body needs work. Depending on pre-draft measurements (Is he 250 and legit 6'10"?) Sabonis is a Top 10 pick (For some reason, he was not at the combine). Dragon Bender will be off the board, though I am not crazy about him. Hield will be off the board, going as high as #3 .
So you have in no particular order:
(1) Simmons
(2) Ingram
(3) Bender
(4) Ellenson
(5) Hield
I think these above five will definitely be picked ahead of us, with Ellenson gone because of team need, like you said. Then based on cursory review so far I think these guys go next in no particular order:
(6) Jamal Murray
(7) Jaylen Brown
(8) Marquese Chris
(9) Kriss Dunn
(10) Sabonis
So unless we work a trade the newest King will be one of the above five. My favorites are Dunn, Brown and Sabonis. If Murray goes ahead of Dunn, which is possible due to his age advantage (19 vs 22), and another team goes big ahead of us (Sabonis, Chris) or wing (Brown), I think Vlade will gladly scoop up Dunn.
I am trying to envision scenario in which Brown or Dunn is not available, and while of course it is possible, I think there is a good chance one of these guys will be on the board.
Jaylen Brown is a beast and fills a need (wing defender)
Kris Dunn is tenacious and fills a need (combo guard, defender)
Sabonis is ferocious and fills a need (low post PF, high post passer)
Any of these three will be very good for us. And if we draft Sabonis it opens up my Boogie to BOS trade (with Ben) for #3 (Hield), Olynyk, Smart and Croeder and the #16.