2015/16 Kings Predictions
- Thread starter macadocious
- Start date
Considering both 2013/14 and 2014/15 you are talking about 52 games he played. when your starting PG and supposed star doesn't play and your team is doing much better is pretty telling...
And about Eric Gordon, you called him an inefficient chucker so I think that TS% that measures efficiency is probably OK to use, his 2pt% is terrible but his great 3pt% on a lot of attempts (5.2) makes up for it efficiency wise- and he is hardly inefficient.
The comparison to Cousins was in order to show you a player his shot efficiency is close too, and Cousins (which I doubt you'll say is inefficient) had the same overall shot efficiency... that's why it is relevant although they are completely different players.
And about Eric Gordon, you called him an inefficient chucker so I think that TS% that measures efficiency is probably OK to use, his 2pt% is terrible but his great 3pt% on a lot of attempts (5.2) makes up for it efficiency wise- and he is hardly inefficient.
The comparison to Cousins was in order to show you a player his shot efficiency is close too, and Cousins (which I doubt you'll say is inefficient) had the same overall shot efficiency... that's why it is relevant although they are completely different players.
It doesn't make any sense to compare a SG to a C. At least to me. They don't take the same type of shots (nor should they) nor are they worth equally to their team. Cousins faces triple teams nightly, Gordon does not. In fact, Gordon should have a higher TS% since he is the 4th best player on the team at best, he isn't the focal point of the defense. No team faces the Pelicans and says we have to stop Gordon. Not a single one. You are stuck on his 3 point percentage and you can stick to your opinion, but I am certainly not calling him efficient in anything other than 3 point shooting and free throws, because he isn't. The telling part of the story is, as good as he is shooting the 3, he still took more shots from below the 3 point line, where he was a full 6% worse overall. That, my friend, is stupid offense and inefficient.
The reason for his efficiency from the three is this stat: 94% ---- that is what percentage of his threes were assisted. That is enormous. It basically means whenever he shot it he was waiting for it and ready. Kudos to him for making them, but at this point in his career, he's become a career 38% three point shooter, the only problem Gordon has is that he doesn't know it. He still thinks he is the next Kobe or whoever and plays like it, teammates be damned. Also, his 45% from 3 point land is the first time in his career that he has been over .400. It might be an aberration, it might not be, but he was never that good from 3 before. His 2 point FG% should be concerning for Pelicans fans, because that fell straight off a cliff.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gordoer01.html#shooting::none
The reason for his efficiency from the three is this stat: 94% ---- that is what percentage of his threes were assisted. That is enormous. It basically means whenever he shot it he was waiting for it and ready. Kudos to him for making them, but at this point in his career, he's become a career 38% three point shooter, the only problem Gordon has is that he doesn't know it. He still thinks he is the next Kobe or whoever and plays like it, teammates be damned. Also, his 45% from 3 point land is the first time in his career that he has been over .400. It might be an aberration, it might not be, but he was never that good from 3 before. His 2 point FG% should be concerning for Pelicans fans, because that fell straight off a cliff.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gordoer01.html#shooting::none
I mean... that puts it in perspective. The team was definitely better than its record last year, considering the coaching changes and the morale death on December 15. To say that we'll only win two more games when we replace Stauskas with Belinelli, JT/Landry/Hollins with WCS/Koufos, and Williams with Butler/Anderson, is ludicrous.
The only problems I see going into the season are the following
- McLemore doesn't develop (highly doubt this)
- Rondo doesn't work out (no opinion)
- WCS doesn't work out (no opinion)
The only problems I see going into the season are the following
- McLemore doesn't develop (highly doubt this)
- Rondo doesn't work out (no opinion)
- WCS doesn't work out (no opinion)
Even if Rondo dosent pan and comes off the bench he's an upgrade over McCallum. Ben gives us this same production maybe better defense not a big problem. WCS will be better than Landry no matter what he does. Belinlli, Kofous, healthy Collison, and Karl all season is such an upgrade to Stuaskas, JT, and Corbin.
To the surprise of no one, the Kings don't get a single vote for biggest turnaround for a team this upcoming season, courtesy of none other than ESPN.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/13464122/2015-summer-forecast-team-turnaround
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/13464122/2015-summer-forecast-team-turnaround
I've thought off this.
The realist in me doesn't want to get excited about Rondo..
The homer in me says Rondo + Cuz + Karl's history of giving freedom to his PGs on offense might = something special. Probably what Vlade is banking on too.
If Rondo averages double digit assists this season, Cuz is probably putting up 25+ppg.... of course, Cuz might do that with or without Rondo's help. The numbers he put up towards the end of the season were gross (in a good way).
The realist in me doesn't want to get excited about Rondo..
The homer in me says Rondo + Cuz + Karl's history of giving freedom to his PGs on offense might = something special. Probably what Vlade is banking on too.
If Rondo averages double digit assists this season, Cuz is probably putting up 25+ppg.... of course, Cuz might do that with or without Rondo's help. The numbers he put up towards the end of the season were gross (in a good way).
No, not last year at least. What you are probably thinking of is his very low assistedt% compared to other bigs, which is something that has been going on throughout his career.
Obviously he has never been anywhere near lowest overall player in the league. There are always going to be hundreds of guards and whatnot who have lower percentages because everything they create is off their own dribble. But he's always been right at or near the lowest assisted big man in the league, some of that the mark of a true goto guy -- he creates his own shot, he doesn't need it created -- some of that because we have been such a crap passing team for so long. In any case, this past season he was at 52.0% assisted, which was the 4th lowest number for any center of note (Furkan Aldemir also had a lower number, but then again Furkan averaged 2.3pts a game for Philadelphia and took 78 shots on the year, so sample size and all that). And two of the 3 centers below him (Bosh 51.8 and Amare 46.9) aren't even true centers). Greg Monroe is the only other guy so low at 49.9%
Amongst Centers:
2014-15: 52.0 4th lowest
2013-14: 53.3 5th lowest
2012-13: 48.5 2nd lowest
Obviously he has never been anywhere near lowest overall player in the league. There are always going to be hundreds of guards and whatnot who have lower percentages because everything they create is off their own dribble. But he's always been right at or near the lowest assisted big man in the league, some of that the mark of a true goto guy -- he creates his own shot, he doesn't need it created -- some of that because we have been such a crap passing team for so long. In any case, this past season he was at 52.0% assisted, which was the 4th lowest number for any center of note (Furkan Aldemir also had a lower number, but then again Furkan averaged 2.3pts a game for Philadelphia and took 78 shots on the year, so sample size and all that). And two of the 3 centers below him (Bosh 51.8 and Amare 46.9) aren't even true centers). Greg Monroe is the only other guy so low at 49.9%
Amongst Centers:
2014-15: 52.0 4th lowest
2013-14: 53.3 5th lowest
2012-13: 48.5 2nd lowest
Last edited:
FGM %UAST (Percent of Field Goals Made Unassisted) is kind of an interesting stat.
Rudy is actually among the leading non-guard players in this category with 62.2% of his baskets unassisted (way higher than Cousins), it's not very surprising considering his style of play- and his overall shooting has an ok efficiency (55.5 TS%), but looking deeper into his shot tracking it seems like this style of play may hurt his efficiency since the longer he holds the ball before the shot the lower his efficiency gets:
34.4% of his shots comes within 2 seconds of touching the balls and he is very efficient on those (56.5 eFG%), 49.6% of his shots comes within 2-6 seconds and his efficiency on those goes down (47.5 eFG%), 16.1% of his shots comes after more than 6 seconds and he is not efficient on those (38.3 eFG%).
Z-Bo (51.8%), LMA (50.7%) and Monroe (50.1%) are all players considered more as post-scoring bigs and have higher precentage of their baskets unassisted than Cousins (47.8%) and you can also add Valanciunas (46.6%) and Kanter (45.6%) who have a lower precent to that group.
Inside that group Valanciunas is by far the most efficient in terms of shots (62.3 TS%), Kanter is a distant second (56.4 TS%), Monroe is 3rd (54.9 TS%) and Cousins is 4th (54.5 TS%) coming ahead of Z-Bo (53.8 TS%) and LMA (52.8 TS%).
Looking deeper into his shot-tracking Cousins doesn't have a huge difference in efficiency between shots taken after no dribbles (49.9 eFG%) and 1/2 dribbles (45/45.5 eFG%) this drop of 4-5% is much smaller than Z-Bo for example who has a difference of 13% eFG drop between shots taken after no dribbles and ones taken after. It's also worth noting that Cousins was most efficient after over 7 dribbles (52.2 eFG%).
Rudy is actually among the leading non-guard players in this category with 62.2% of his baskets unassisted (way higher than Cousins), it's not very surprising considering his style of play- and his overall shooting has an ok efficiency (55.5 TS%), but looking deeper into his shot tracking it seems like this style of play may hurt his efficiency since the longer he holds the ball before the shot the lower his efficiency gets:
34.4% of his shots comes within 2 seconds of touching the balls and he is very efficient on those (56.5 eFG%), 49.6% of his shots comes within 2-6 seconds and his efficiency on those goes down (47.5 eFG%), 16.1% of his shots comes after more than 6 seconds and he is not efficient on those (38.3 eFG%).
Z-Bo (51.8%), LMA (50.7%) and Monroe (50.1%) are all players considered more as post-scoring bigs and have higher precentage of their baskets unassisted than Cousins (47.8%) and you can also add Valanciunas (46.6%) and Kanter (45.6%) who have a lower precent to that group.
Inside that group Valanciunas is by far the most efficient in terms of shots (62.3 TS%), Kanter is a distant second (56.4 TS%), Monroe is 3rd (54.9 TS%) and Cousins is 4th (54.5 TS%) coming ahead of Z-Bo (53.8 TS%) and LMA (52.8 TS%).
Looking deeper into his shot-tracking Cousins doesn't have a huge difference in efficiency between shots taken after no dribbles (49.9 eFG%) and 1/2 dribbles (45/45.5 eFG%) this drop of 4-5% is much smaller than Z-Bo for example who has a difference of 13% eFG drop between shots taken after no dribbles and ones taken after. It's also worth noting that Cousins was most efficient after over 7 dribbles (52.2 eFG%).
Landry was liability on defense. He could make mid-range jumpers.
WCS will very likely be a positive on defense. He hasn't proven that he can make mid-range jumpers in the NBA because he is a rookie, but he's been working on his mid-range game this summer:
To oversimplify, one option is the offensive option, and the other is the defensive option. If WCS can prove that he can make mid-range jumpers in the NBA it will be factually correct to say that he will be better than Landry of last year. If he doesn't, we sacrificed shooting for shot-blocking, a move which more efficiently addresses our needs.
WCS will very likely be a positive on defense. He hasn't proven that he can make mid-range jumpers in the NBA because he is a rookie, but he's been working on his mid-range game this summer:
To oversimplify, one option is the offensive option, and the other is the defensive option. If WCS can prove that he can make mid-range jumpers in the NBA it will be factually correct to say that he will be better than Landry of last year. If he doesn't, we sacrificed shooting for shot-blocking, a move which more efficiently addresses our needs.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/13463878/2015-summer-forecast-team-turmoil
We are on the front page of ESPN - NBA section!! At this point, this is becoming rather hilarious.
We are on the front page of ESPN - NBA section!! At this point, this is becoming rather hilarious.
I know, it was a complete landslide. You would think after all the Clippers news over the summer with Jordan they would be higher up in the conversation. Apparently we are dysfunctional team #1 and we have no equal. I have high expectations for this year (well, high compared to the last 9 years) and I definitely see the negative news about us decreasing at the very least, but I don't expect it to entirely go away.
It's always easiest for people to continue to pile crap on the team that everyone else is piling crap on (deserved or not is a different story), but anyone with half a brain should be able to see this is not the same team as last year, at all. We got lit up for signing Rondo too, you would think we would get some positive reviews for bringing in a former champ and multi former assists leader, but the exact opposite happened. This could be our rallying cry though, a bunch of misfits, outcasts, and generally hated players in the league on the same roster, all looking for blood. I can dig that.
It's always easiest for people to continue to pile crap on the team that everyone else is piling crap on (deserved or not is a different story), but anyone with half a brain should be able to see this is not the same team as last year, at all. We got lit up for signing Rondo too, you would think we would get some positive reviews for bringing in a former champ and multi former assists leader, but the exact opposite happened. This could be our rallying cry though, a bunch of misfits, outcasts, and generally hated players in the league on the same roster, all looking for blood. I can dig that.
Well, to be fair its the ESPN narrative that has turned viciously against us...but then again it was never for us. Over the past few years I've made inroads on several different fronts, nba.com's group is not as solidly obnoxious etc., but espn has ALWAYS been a bastion of Kings ignorance, and its almost a solid wall. I think they'd probably just drop somebody from the panel if he/she did not agree with the self-obvious assessment that the Kings were a disaster guaranteed to give them hit-generating stories this season.
Last edited:
PLEASE do not try to turn this narrative. PLEASE.
Let it get to a fever pitch, at least until the Vegas odds and over/under win totals are made. Give them a wide birth to make a fool of themselves. Seriously. How does that saying go "Give them enough rope to hang themselves with"... Do you not all see what a golden opportunity this is to make money? We're probably going to be projected at less than 35 wins by Vegas!
Also, we can now officially withstand all the negative press, it won't drive the team apart, it will drive them together.
I'm not being sarcastic, ironic, facetious, glib, or dismissive when I say that all the negative press is exactly what this team needs! And my newfound gambling habit!! PLEASE!!!
But I really should shut up about this!
If everything was a one on one match up you could post a simple equation like that and there would be some validity to it. But it is a fluid team game (Thank goodness).
So it looks something like this:
PG's - Holiday+ whoever is his backup < Rondo + Collison + Curry
Wings - Gordon + Evans + backups = McLemore + Gay + Casspi
Big's - Davis + Asik + Backup < Cousins + Koufas + WCS
I'm headed off to work so that is all for now. I think the Kings have an edge over a lot of the WC teams. As WCS gains experience and the Kings gel as a unit it will become more pronounced.
KB
Rondo better than Holiday? Woah.... How can you honestly day both Rondo and Collison are better than Holiday? I'm just curious about why you think that.
Gordon is not a chucker. He's an overall decent scorer. 3pters are more valuable than 2pters... So I don't really see the problem. He takes 5 3pters a game and he takes 6 2pters a game... And he shots his 3s at almost .45%.
His 2pters need work, but to say he's an inefficient chucker is selling him way too dang short.
There's a difference between those 2 players. One will be 30 and the other 26. And aside from this year, he last time Rondo was in the playoffs was the 2011-2012 season.
Holiday not the best PG on his team? Whaaat is this madness on KF lately? I love Tyreke, but Holiday beats him in almost all categories except his inside game, defense, and staying healthy.
Gordon is not a chucker. He's an overall decent scorer. 3pters are more valuable than 2pters... So I don't really see the problem. He takes 5 3pters a game and he takes 6 2pters a game... And he shots his 3s at almost .45%.
His 2pters need work, but to say he's an inefficient chucker is selling him way too dang short.
There's a difference between those 2 players. One will be 30 and the other 26. And aside from this year, he last time Rondo was in the playoffs was the 2011-2012 season.
Holiday not the best PG on his team? Whaaat is this madness on KF lately? I love Tyreke, but Holiday beats him in almost all categories except his inside game, defense, and staying healthy.
You just said
-he's not the focal point of the team.
-94% of 3s were assisted
-he just waited for his ball
Then you concluded that he tries to play like Kobe... Earlier you were implying that he's just a catch and shoot player that the defense doesn't focus on. Then you try to say he's Kobe because he takes a lot of shots...but then he only attempts a little over 11shots a game. Which is it man? Is he a catch and shooter player or is he a player with a huge ego that refuses to stop his isos and shooting?
You know who likes to ISO a lot? Rudy and Demarcus.
-he's not the focal point of the team.
-94% of 3s were assisted
-he just waited for his ball
Then you concluded that he tries to play like Kobe... Earlier you were implying that he's just a catch and shoot player that the defense doesn't focus on. Then you try to say he's Kobe because he takes a lot of shots...but then he only attempts a little over 11shots a game. Which is it man? Is he a catch and shooter player or is he a player with a huge ego that refuses to stop his isos and shooting?
You know who likes to ISO a lot? Rudy and Demarcus.
Nowhere did I say he is like Kobe because he shoots a lot. Go ahead quote me on it, I'll be waiting. He is inefficient he does one thing well and that's shoot threes. He takes one step inside the three point line and he becomes detrimental to his own team. I said he is like Kobe because he has this tendency (or did previously) to shoot with reckless abandon and take shots with a great degree of difficulty, shots only someone like Kobe can hit regularly. His shot attempts aren't bad in terms of shots per game, but there's a reason for it. Comparing Cousins and Rudy to Gordon is a joke right?
Here's how we will start me not being optimistic (even though I think we will be in the playoffs).
LaC- L
LaL- W
@LaC- L
Memphis- L
@Phx- L
Hou- L
GS- L
SAS- L
At this point the forum will blow up the national media will feel blessed.
Det- W
Brooklyn- w
Toronto-W
@Atl- W
@Mia- L
@orl- W
@Char- W
@Mlk- W
Minn- W
@GS- L
Dallas- W
I did the predictions with only 1 upset and us only beating teams we should. Otherwise I'd have us beating Memphis who would playing playing 3rd game in 5 nights. As well as Pheonix and possibly the clippers opening night.
Looking at Dallas, Utah, and Phoenix schedule at the end of the month all 4 of us will be tied or 1/2 between seeds 8-10.
LaC- L
LaL- W
@LaC- L
Memphis- L
@Phx- L
Hou- L
GS- L
SAS- L
At this point the forum will blow up the national media will feel blessed.
Det- W
Brooklyn- w
Toronto-W
@Atl- W
@Mia- L
@orl- W
@Char- W
@Mlk- W
Minn- W
@GS- L
Dallas- W
I did the predictions with only 1 upset and us only beating teams we should. Otherwise I'd have us beating Memphis who would playing playing 3rd game in 5 nights. As well as Pheonix and possibly the clippers opening night.
Looking at Dallas, Utah, and Phoenix schedule at the end of the month all 4 of us will be tied or 1/2 between seeds 8-10.
Ummm since the coach of the team decided to start him for the last about quarter of the season along with Gay at the 4. Look of course Casspi isint a starter duh but how many other options do we have at the 3 IF Gay is at the 4?? Butler?? Yes of course Holiday over Rondo you watch Rondo last year?Its debatable tho.
Again, last about quarter of the season coach started Gay at the 4. I don't think you are aware of what kind of system George Karl likes to run, hes all about fast pace, up tempo offense and starting a traditional PF at the 4 like Koufous or WCS or DMC at the 4 with one of KK or WCS at center would make the offense slow and completely **** our spacing ESPECIALLY with Rondo on the floor. Forreal tho imagine how absolutely terrible our spacinng for Cuz/ 3pt shooting would be in a Rondo/McLemore/Gay/KK or WCS/Cousins lineup. Not one single person who can shoot above 35% from 3 and hit a consistent amount (Casspi shot 40% last yr). Having the leagues most dominant paint presence makes it extremly important to have the floor spaced, I mean you saw last year he got doubled teamed allllllllllllll day of nearly every game yet we had no shooters so we got ****ed and with our HoF coach being primarily an offensive-minded coach I'm bet he values the offense over the defense. I think you also have to consider the fact the small ball/3's being 4's and 4's being 5's is what the game is almost all about nowadays, theres only a small amount of teams (Grizzlies,Clippers) that still run traditional 2 big lineups and nothing is more important for an offense thats run through Cuz than spacing.
Personally after seeing what we did at the beginning of the last year with the big lineup/miniaml shooting i was alright with it becuase it came with Wins but that was a different coach and a whole different system so Im not necessarily saying what I want the lineup to be what rather what I think Coach Karl is going to make it.
Again, last about quarter of the season coach started Gay at the 4. I don't think you are aware of what kind of system George Karl likes to run, hes all about fast pace, up tempo offense and starting a traditional PF at the 4 like Koufous or WCS or DMC at the 4 with one of KK or WCS at center would make the offense slow and completely **** our spacing ESPECIALLY with Rondo on the floor. Forreal tho imagine how absolutely terrible our spacinng for Cuz/ 3pt shooting would be in a Rondo/McLemore/Gay/KK or WCS/Cousins lineup. Not one single person who can shoot above 35% from 3 and hit a consistent amount (Casspi shot 40% last yr). Having the leagues most dominant paint presence makes it extremly important to have the floor spaced, I mean you saw last year he got doubled teamed allllllllllllll day of nearly every game yet we had no shooters so we got ****ed and with our HoF coach being primarily an offensive-minded coach I'm bet he values the offense over the defense. I think you also have to consider the fact the small ball/3's being 4's and 4's being 5's is what the game is almost all about nowadays, theres only a small amount of teams (Grizzlies,Clippers) that still run traditional 2 big lineups and nothing is more important for an offense thats run through Cuz than spacing.
Personally after seeing what we did at the beginning of the last year with the big lineup/miniaml shooting i was alright with it becuase it came with Wins but that was a different coach and a whole different system so Im not necessarily saying what I want the lineup to be what rather what I think Coach Karl is going to make it.