Ongoing draft/lottery discussion [OPEN SPOILERS]
- Thread starter hrdboild
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Apparently he is. The players we CAN get to come haven't been able to supplant him for a while. Like I said if you trade JT you have to be bringing back a starting PF. Or else you are stuck with Robinson, Hickson, and Landry type players. We have nothing behind JT and Cuz. NOTHING. JT is backup level talent I know but you trade him with no PF in return? I invite you to look at our depth chart beyond those two then look at Free agents that would come here. Lets say you get lucky and get a starter in FA who is the backup 4-5? Moreland? If we get a pg i.e. lawson or bledsoe. which is easier to get a starting and backup big which will need if JT goes. or just a backup pg? If its collison
Like who?
If the offer is Lawson/Faried, I want nothing to do with it. Solid vets aren't something you can just pick up at your local Whole Foods. Most teams with solid vets don't want to move them for an unproven draft pick. You rarely see something like a #6 pick traded on draft night for a solid vet for a reason.
If we can get someone like Jrue Holiday or Conley or Taj Gibson, then by all means do it. I don't see anything like that on the table though. A guy like Bledsoe might be a possibility but this conversation takes on a different meaning when looking at the actual NBA landscape. I'm not trading the #6 for Kevin Martin just because he'd qualify as a solid vet.
If the offer is Lawson/Faried, I want nothing to do with it. Solid vets aren't something you can just pick up at your local Whole Foods. Most teams with solid vets don't want to move them for an unproven draft pick. You rarely see something like a #6 pick traded on draft night for a solid vet for a reason.
If we can get someone like Jrue Holiday or Conley or Taj Gibson, then by all means do it. I don't see anything like that on the table though. A guy like Bledsoe might be a possibility but this conversation takes on a different meaning when looking at the actual NBA landscape. I'm not trading the #6 for Kevin Martin just because he'd qualify as a solid vet.
Not what I'm suggesting. My issue is that we have limited assets to improve our team and our role playing vets suck. Trading our young players and pick for more vets that don't fit isn't the answer.
If there was a good deal that addressed our needs for d and spacing, I'd be open to it. But the only garbage getting tossed around are 2 karl favs in Ty/faried that would kill our cap space without actually addressing our problems. But because they are vets we don't have to wait on, it's a better move.
I'd easily rather see if we can address a need with out pick (like a versatile interior defender in wcs) then use our cap space and a small trade our 2 to find vets that fit.
It's not like we've been building with youth the past 5+ years, not like the other rebuilding teams. We've done a lot of the vet thing but have apparently overlooked the need/fit part of roster building. Let's not do it again.
If there was a good deal that addressed our needs for d and spacing, I'd be open to it. But the only garbage getting tossed around are 2 karl favs in Ty/faried that would kill our cap space without actually addressing our problems. But because they are vets we don't have to wait on, it's a better move.
I'd easily rather see if we can address a need with out pick (like a versatile interior defender in wcs) then use our cap space and a small trade our 2 to find vets that fit.
It's not like we've been building with youth the past 5+ years, not like the other rebuilding teams. We've done a lot of the vet thing but have apparently overlooked the need/fit part of roster building. Let's not do it again.
we get focused on Denver almost because we ourselves are buying into and thus perpetuating the media fascination with the Karl dynamic. But there really has been no particular indication that this front office is leaning that way. You could probably construct (couple of solid vet) type trades involving almost every team in the league if the #6 was involved:
ATL -- Horford ($12.0) + Thabo ($4.0) for #6, JT, Landry, maybe Nik to match, if their free agents all looking to be paid has them spooked
BOS -- Bradley ($7.7) + Olynyk ($2.2) or Turner ($3.4) for #6, Landry, maybe Nik
CHA -- Kidd-Gilchrist ($5.0) + MaWilliams ($7.0)
MIA -- McRoberts $5.5mil + Chalmers $4.3mil is about the best they could do
ORL -- Frye $8.2 +...er...
WSH -- Nene $13.0 + ? or Webster $5.7 + ? -- not many options there.
BKN -- Young $9.7 + Jack $6.3, or Young + Plumlee ($1.5) or Jack + Plumlee
NYK -- Calderon $7.4 +...? have no contracts
PHI -- forget this, they need Noel now, nobody else
etc. etc.
and whatever. Point just being that a #6 in a perceived strong draft could shake stuff loose from almost any team. Just a question of how any package fills our perceived holes of defense (perimeter stopper, rim defense), backcourt creaters, shooters.
ATL -- Horford ($12.0) + Thabo ($4.0) for #6, JT, Landry, maybe Nik to match, if their free agents all looking to be paid has them spooked
BOS -- Bradley ($7.7) + Olynyk ($2.2) or Turner ($3.4) for #6, Landry, maybe Nik
CHA -- Kidd-Gilchrist ($5.0) + MaWilliams ($7.0)
MIA -- McRoberts $5.5mil + Chalmers $4.3mil is about the best they could do
ORL -- Frye $8.2 +...er...
WSH -- Nene $13.0 + ? or Webster $5.7 + ? -- not many options there.
BKN -- Young $9.7 + Jack $6.3, or Young + Plumlee ($1.5) or Jack + Plumlee
NYK -- Calderon $7.4 +...? have no contracts
PHI -- forget this, they need Noel now, nobody else
etc. etc.
and whatever. Point just being that a #6 in a perceived strong draft could shake stuff loose from almost any team. Just a question of how any package fills our perceived holes of defense (perimeter stopper, rim defense), backcourt creaters, shooters.
You just illustrated the point I'm making. Most of those deals are crap and not much better (if at all) than we could get hanging on to our pick and using cap space plus a trade or two for the right pieces.
Hell, if the packages you outlined are the going rates for mediocre vets let's just trade ours for top 10 picks.
Hell, if the packages you outlined are the going rates for mediocre vets let's just trade ours for top 10 picks.
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Draft time in American sports fascinates me. We have nothing that really compares to it in Europe, as none of the sports that we play have the same youth set up as yourselves. So much variation in the analysis of prospects, it's one of the most intriguing aspects of the nba for me.
Knowing this, I've had to admit to myself that I am biased. If we were to trade our way out of the draft and not select a young prospect, the process would lose the intrigue and excitement that it is currently providing me. I can understand that it might be the best course of action from a pure Kings standpoint, but I couldn't help be a little disappointed as a fan.
After reading Bricklayers post above, I began to wonder if there is a 'best of both worlds' scenario. I am by no means an expert in basketball talent evaluation, or potential trade construction, but for a bit of fun, I thought of the following trade and plucked up the courage to post here, therefore opening myself up to criticism.
Kings trade #6 + Landry
For
Miami #10 + Chalmers and Mcroberts
We get the coveted veterans in positions of need and get out of the Landry contract, while still having a shot and a young prospect.
Miami give themselves a chance at a prospect with a higher ceiling and free up some cap space to re tool in free agency.
In this scenario we'd be in a position to draft Kaminsky/Turner/Payne/Lyles, maybe even Stanley Johnson if he drops. I think I might just prefer to stay at 6 if WCS is available but I like this an alternative.
Knowing this, I've had to admit to myself that I am biased. If we were to trade our way out of the draft and not select a young prospect, the process would lose the intrigue and excitement that it is currently providing me. I can understand that it might be the best course of action from a pure Kings standpoint, but I couldn't help be a little disappointed as a fan.
After reading Bricklayers post above, I began to wonder if there is a 'best of both worlds' scenario. I am by no means an expert in basketball talent evaluation, or potential trade construction, but for a bit of fun, I thought of the following trade and plucked up the courage to post here, therefore opening myself up to criticism.
Kings trade #6 + Landry
For
Miami #10 + Chalmers and Mcroberts
We get the coveted veterans in positions of need and get out of the Landry contract, while still having a shot and a young prospect.
Miami give themselves a chance at a prospect with a higher ceiling and free up some cap space to re tool in free agency.
In this scenario we'd be in a position to draft Kaminsky/Turner/Payne/Lyles, maybe even Stanley Johnson if he drops. I think I might just prefer to stay at 6 if WCS is available but I like this an alternative.
Everyone of them involved players that would patch or address at least one of our weaknesses.
The problem with draft picks is the same overoptimism effect that casinos count on to steal your money makes everybody stupid on draft night. History says you have about a 50/50 shot there with a #6 pick, and its only a single player who might not be ready immediately.
Here are the last 35 years of #6 picks (sorted from first to last by career PPG):
Damian Lillard 246gms 20.2pts
Brandon Roy 326gms 18.8pts
Antoine Walker 893gms 17.5pts
Orlando Woolridge 851gms 16.0pts
Hersey Hawkins 983gms 14.7pts
Danilo Gallinari 344gms 14.2pts
Wally Szczerbiak 651gms 14.1pts
Ron Mercer 432gms 13.6pts
Tom Gugliotta 763gms 13.0pts
Kenny Smith 737gms 12.8pts
Braynt Reeves 395gms 12.5pts
Chris Kaman 719gms 11.4pts
Nerlens Noel 75gms 9.9pts
Sharone Wright 203gms 9.7pts
Calbert Cheaney 825gms 9.5pts
DaJuan Wagner 103gms 9.4pts
Johnny Flynn 163gms 9.2pts
Josh Childress 391gms 9.1pts
Martell Webster 580gms 8.7pts
Shane Battier 977gms 8.6pts
Melvin Turpin 361gms 8.5pts
Mike O'Koren 407gms 8.2pts
Trent Tucker 756gms 8.2pts
Doug Smith 296gms 8.0pts
Yi Jianlin 272gms 7.9pts
Marcus Smart 67gms 7.8pts
Stacey King 438gms 6.4pts
DeMarr Johnson 344gms 6.2pts
Felton Spencer 640gms 5.2pts
Joe Kleine 965gms 4.8pts
Robert Traylor 438gms 4.8pts
William Bedford 238gms 4.1pts
Ekpe Udoh 270gms 4.0pts
Russel Cross 45gms 3.7pts
Jan Vesely 162gms 3.6pts
I mean, there are some scattered good players in there but in 35 years the Portland Trailblazers are the only team to have ever drafted legitimate stars out of the position. Many of the other productive players were considered dubious assets -- Mercer, Reeves, Kaman, Woolridge, Walker. There were several more severely curtailed by injury -- Roy, Gallinari, Gugliotta. And then its a long list of roleplayers, spot starters, and flat out flops and scrubs.
This is supposed to be a good draft, there are players of interest here. But sticking our nose up like our #6 pick is just way WAY too valuable to EVER give up for a mere couple of solid vets is ignoring history. You take a guy like Avery Bradley and he's solidly middle of the pack of 6th pick results. Looks like Olynk might be too. Or Kidd Gilchrist. Or a lot of guys. There have been 4 career 15+ppg scorers drafted at the #6 spot in the last 35 years, and 2 of those 4 were known as selfish chuckers, and 1 of the remaining 2 disintegrated physically after a few years. Its hardly an unassailable level of play.
The problem with draft picks is the same overoptimism effect that casinos count on to steal your money makes everybody stupid on draft night. History says you have about a 50/50 shot there with a #6 pick, and its only a single player who might not be ready immediately.
Here are the last 35 years of #6 picks (sorted from first to last by career PPG):
Damian Lillard 246gms 20.2pts
Brandon Roy 326gms 18.8pts
Antoine Walker 893gms 17.5pts
Orlando Woolridge 851gms 16.0pts
Hersey Hawkins 983gms 14.7pts
Danilo Gallinari 344gms 14.2pts
Wally Szczerbiak 651gms 14.1pts
Ron Mercer 432gms 13.6pts
Tom Gugliotta 763gms 13.0pts
Kenny Smith 737gms 12.8pts
Braynt Reeves 395gms 12.5pts
Chris Kaman 719gms 11.4pts
Nerlens Noel 75gms 9.9pts
Sharone Wright 203gms 9.7pts
Calbert Cheaney 825gms 9.5pts
DaJuan Wagner 103gms 9.4pts
Johnny Flynn 163gms 9.2pts
Josh Childress 391gms 9.1pts
Martell Webster 580gms 8.7pts
Shane Battier 977gms 8.6pts
Melvin Turpin 361gms 8.5pts
Mike O'Koren 407gms 8.2pts
Trent Tucker 756gms 8.2pts
Doug Smith 296gms 8.0pts
Yi Jianlin 272gms 7.9pts
Marcus Smart 67gms 7.8pts
Stacey King 438gms 6.4pts
DeMarr Johnson 344gms 6.2pts
Felton Spencer 640gms 5.2pts
Joe Kleine 965gms 4.8pts
Robert Traylor 438gms 4.8pts
William Bedford 238gms 4.1pts
Ekpe Udoh 270gms 4.0pts
Russel Cross 45gms 3.7pts
Jan Vesely 162gms 3.6pts
I mean, there are some scattered good players in there but in 35 years the Portland Trailblazers are the only team to have ever drafted legitimate stars out of the position. Many of the other productive players were considered dubious assets -- Mercer, Reeves, Kaman, Woolridge, Walker. There were several more severely curtailed by injury -- Roy, Gallinari, Gugliotta. And then its a long list of roleplayers, spot starters, and flat out flops and scrubs.
This is supposed to be a good draft, there are players of interest here. But sticking our nose up like our #6 pick is just way WAY too valuable to EVER give up for a mere couple of solid vets is ignoring history. You take a guy like Avery Bradley and he's solidly middle of the pack of 6th pick results. Looks like Olynk might be too. Or Kidd Gilchrist. Or a lot of guys. There have been 4 career 15+ppg scorers drafted at the #6 spot in the last 35 years, and 2 of those 4 were known as selfish chuckers, and 1 of the remaining 2 disintegrated physically after a few years. Its hardly an unassailable level of play.
There is in fact a tomorrow for this franchise. It's coming no matter what
Because this team is chronically mismanaged and we have been among the worst teams at getting value in the draft (which should our best avenue for getting better when are in the top half of the lottery), I will agree that we've painted ourselves into a corner and we need to take long shot bets to be close to the playoffs this year and in two following years to avoid loosing our cornerstone player and starting over.
Imo, trading for vets is longshot bet to win / keep DMC; which gives up an important long term asset for short term gains; and locks us into keep talking these bets since this should be our last lottery selection before 2017.
I think this is a bad course of action that would hurt the rebuilding that's the most likely to occur in 2-3 years.
Draft the best player for the long haul and he can probably help you some bench help in the next two seasons. If we are truly good enough to contend for the playoffs, DMC , Gay, Karl, Darren and Ben will need to improve a ton regardless of what we do in the draft. Let's play both sides of the fence with the draft and focus on short term help with the cap space
Because this team is chronically mismanaged and we have been among the worst teams at getting value in the draft (which should our best avenue for getting better when are in the top half of the lottery), I will agree that we've painted ourselves into a corner and we need to take long shot bets to be close to the playoffs this year and in two following years to avoid loosing our cornerstone player and starting over.
Imo, trading for vets is longshot bet to win / keep DMC; which gives up an important long term asset for short term gains; and locks us into keep talking these bets since this should be our last lottery selection before 2017.
I think this is a bad course of action that would hurt the rebuilding that's the most likely to occur in 2-3 years.
Draft the best player for the long haul and he can probably help you some bench help in the next two seasons. If we are truly good enough to contend for the playoffs, DMC , Gay, Karl, Darren and Ben will need to improve a ton regardless of what we do in the draft. Let's play both sides of the fence with the draft and focus on short term help with the cap space
Don't know the official ones, some reports say he's a weird artsy guy but don't quote me. My issue is mainly questions over his love of the game. One quote that rubbed me the wrong way was after his workout here a reporter asked him if he compares himself to Tyson Chandler on the court. I know these guys get these comp questions everyday but his response was something like " I don't compare myself to anybody man, like I don't watch tapes of guys and say I want to play like him, I just do what I do".
Kobe Bryant openly obsessed about Jordan, studying his game and all that. To me 75 percent of what a player will be in the NBA is passion for the game and will. Too many distractions in this profession that derail these guys. Just look at the JR Smiths and Nick Youngs, talented guys that are the same players they were as rookies, haven't improved their games, and don't seem to care that they haven't. Happy to get their checks and party it up. If we do pick WCS, I hope my worries are unfounded, but something tells me I'm not that far off.
Kobe Bryant openly obsessed about Jordan, studying his game and all that. To me 75 percent of what a player will be in the NBA is passion for the game and will. Too many distractions in this profession that derail these guys. Just look at the JR Smiths and Nick Youngs, talented guys that are the same players they were as rookies, haven't improved their games, and don't seem to care that they haven't. Happy to get their checks and party it up. If we do pick WCS, I hope my worries are unfounded, but something tells me I'm not that far off.
Background concerns, I'm assuming, are still the 'he doesn't love the game!' stuff. Way off base, in my opinion, but I think that is what it is.
If WCS is sliding, I would assume its because of lackluster workouts more than anything else. We see this all the time. Teams fall in love with the skilled offensive players during pre-draft workouts. Hezonja, Porzingis, Payne, etc. All those guys are moving up the board, while the raw defensive athletes, Mudiay and WCS, are slipping. If they are slipping, of course. We don't actually know what's happening behind the scenes.
If WCS is sliding, I would assume its because of lackluster workouts more than anything else. We see this all the time. Teams fall in love with the skilled offensive players during pre-draft workouts. Hezonja, Porzingis, Payne, etc. All those guys are moving up the board, while the raw defensive athletes, Mudiay and WCS, are slipping. If they are slipping, of course. We don't actually know what's happening behind the scenes.
Very clear that Divac and Karl are absolutely on the same page. Both have come out in the last week to make the same three points:
(1) The team needs a defender, ideally one that offers rim protection
(2) The team needs more playmakers
(3) They like their position in the draft and feel confident about getting a player but would be willing to trade it for "two good pieces"
Nice to make things very clear to teams sniffing around the #6 what the Kings are looking for in return.
Every statement is suspect at this time of the year but taken at face value I'd assume the Kings are looking at WCS, Mudiay, & Hezonja while also working the phones on either a deal around the pick or as Vlade said, "something smaller before the draft".
I remain cautiously optimistic about the new braintrust and the direction they are heading.
(1) The team needs a defender, ideally one that offers rim protection
(2) The team needs more playmakers
(3) They like their position in the draft and feel confident about getting a player but would be willing to trade it for "two good pieces"
Nice to make things very clear to teams sniffing around the #6 what the Kings are looking for in return.
Every statement is suspect at this time of the year but taken at face value I'd assume the Kings are looking at WCS, Mudiay, & Hezonja while also working the phones on either a deal around the pick or as Vlade said, "something smaller before the draft".
I remain cautiously optimistic about the new braintrust and the direction they are heading.
