Rudy Gay Enticed to Opt out of Contract, Test Free Agency
- Thread starter dukeswh
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I hope Rudy Gay opts out, for closure if not anything else.
No reason to prolong the inevitable if he doesn't want to stay here, and if he does, we can lock him down to a long term deal and build around him. It would be tough to build a team around Gay and Cousins with this situation looming over another full NBA season. It'd be a half assed, one foot in, one foot out effort from the front office, and understandably so.
Whatever Rudy's decision is after the opt out is sort of out of our control, but I do believe the Kings would benefit short and long term by Rudy opting out. And I want him back, for the record, but I rather not have the distraction there.
No reason to prolong the inevitable if he doesn't want to stay here, and if he does, we can lock him down to a long term deal and build around him. It would be tough to build a team around Gay and Cousins with this situation looming over another full NBA season. It'd be a half assed, one foot in, one foot out effort from the front office, and understandably so.
Whatever Rudy's decision is after the opt out is sort of out of our control, but I do believe the Kings would benefit short and long term by Rudy opting out. And I want him back, for the record, but I rather not have the distraction there.
Remember the Artest issue back about 6-7 years ago how he came out publically and said that he was going to sign elsewhere when his contact was up? Made a huge stink and he ended up having to apologize, but as fans we knew then he was going to be traded that year, which he was.... For Donte Greene, Omri Casspi (pick turned into Omri) and BJax.
Anyhow, this post is in response to you just wanting this to be over. I do as well
note this:
http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/233152/Kings-See-Rudy-Gay-As-Long-Term-Fit
You don't know what Rudy is thinking, but we're actually signaling pretty strongly we want him back. Great talent, I can see why. Has implications for what we are planning on doing going forward however.
http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/233152/Kings-See-Rudy-Gay-As-Long-Term-Fit
You don't know what Rudy is thinking, but we're actually signaling pretty strongly we want him back. Great talent, I can see why. Has implications for what we are planning on doing going forward however.
That's part of a longer article about PDA: http://www.nba.com/kings/node/66429
I think that's just more evidence on the side of PDA "not getting it", but I'm not really surprised at this point. When he said he had McLemore at the top of his board over Noel that was one sign of where his head was at. When he swapped Tyreke for 1 year of Vasquez, a horrible defensive player, and let Portland steal Robin Lopez despite our complete lack of defensive talent at the C position that was another. Giving Carl Landry a 4 year deal was another. Of course he wants Rudy back long-term. Apparently Pete thinks the way to win in the NBA is to score 120 points per game and hope your defense can hold on.
I hope you are not saying that because he made other mistakes, he should let Rudy go without a good faith effort. I think you retain Rudy because he is damn good and not because you think scoring 120 pts is the way to win. Keep Rudy and the other three starters better be able to play defense. The first issue is Rudy and depending on whether we keep him or lose him will determine how we go after other players.
My opinion about Rudy isn't influenced by Pete's past mistakes. What I'm saying is that I don't think we need Rudy Gay. I think we need to take the $55 million or so it would cost to re-sign Rudy Gay long-term and use it to invest in a defensive post player. Because as long as we keep chasing "talented scorers" and pretending like defense will just take care of itself, we're not going to get anywhere. That's what I don't think Pete gets -- like so many people here it appears that he's looking at this as a shell game of positions and stats and skill levels. It doesn't matter if Rudy Gay is the best SF we can get right now, it only matters if the money we invest in him is producing wins.
Look, I don't really believe that advanced stats are infallible and my conclusion here comes from the good old-fashioned eye test more than anything else, but there is a mounting body of data out there which suggests Rudy Gay, despite all of his offensive gifts, is nothing more than a very highly paid league average wing player:
This is a player who just completed his 8th NBA season and during that time has produced only 2 seasons in which his WS/48 was above league average. In 8 years the only stat categories where he's ever finished in the top 10 for a single season are shot attempts (once), shots made (once), and minutes played (three times). PER, a stat which highly favors offense over defense, ranked him as only the 57th best player in the league this year. Somewhere along the way the perception of who Rudy Gay is has far surpassed who he actually is. How much can we really afford to commit to a player whose peak appears to be as the 30th best forward in the league? 11 forwards were selected for the All Star game this year. That means Rudy wasn't even good enough to make the All Star B game, if there was such a thing. He barely makes the cut for the C game.
But forget about what Rudy Gay can do individually and forget where he ranks among the league's top small forwards. That's irrelevant. That's not even what the game is about. The real question we need to be asking is whether Rudy is making the team better, and if so what monetary value is associated with his contributions toward making the team better? That's it. If we're talking about a reasonable contract for a good but not great wing player, it might be a different story. I don't like the way he plays regardless, but let's say his talent makes him an asset below a certain price point. What is he worth? I'm not sure I could put a number on it, but I strongly disagree with the suggestion that our future is in jeopardy if we don't open the piggy bank and make him a big part of it. I'm not drinking the kool-aid on this one. I just don't buy it.
Look, I don't really believe that advanced stats are infallible and my conclusion here comes from the good old-fashioned eye test more than anything else, but there is a mounting body of data out there which suggests Rudy Gay, despite all of his offensive gifts, is nothing more than a very highly paid league average wing player:
This is a player who just completed his 8th NBA season and during that time has produced only 2 seasons in which his WS/48 was above league average. In 8 years the only stat categories where he's ever finished in the top 10 for a single season are shot attempts (once), shots made (once), and minutes played (three times). PER, a stat which highly favors offense over defense, ranked him as only the 57th best player in the league this year. Somewhere along the way the perception of who Rudy Gay is has far surpassed who he actually is. How much can we really afford to commit to a player whose peak appears to be as the 30th best forward in the league? 11 forwards were selected for the All Star game this year. That means Rudy wasn't even good enough to make the All Star B game, if there was such a thing. He barely makes the cut for the C game.
But forget about what Rudy Gay can do individually and forget where he ranks among the league's top small forwards. That's irrelevant. That's not even what the game is about. The real question we need to be asking is whether Rudy is making the team better, and if so what monetary value is associated with his contributions toward making the team better? That's it. If we're talking about a reasonable contract for a good but not great wing player, it might be a different story. I don't like the way he plays regardless, but let's say his talent makes him an asset below a certain price point. What is he worth? I'm not sure I could put a number on it, but I strongly disagree with the suggestion that our future is in jeopardy if we don't open the piggy bank and make him a big part of it. I'm not drinking the kool-aid on this one. I just don't buy it.
I want Rudy to opt out, but then sign with the Kings at around 11/12 mil/year. We can't just let him walk. I don't understand where some of you get the idea that we will use his money to get a defensive player or another guy at Rudy's level. What kind of FAs are we going to get? Remember these are the Kings, still far from the playoff, so we are not going to get any top FA. We can't keep letting good players walk for nothing, hoping to invest the money on someone else who we are probabily not even going to sign.
Crazy, yes. But wouldn't securing a long term, lucrative deal, while his stock is 'high' give him more security?
If Gay plays out his contract then he could potentially hit free agency with the likes of Kevin Love, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Marc Gasol and co. Now granted that market is based on guys not opting out, being part of sign-and-trades, or signing new deals with their existing team. But if everyone stays at their existing team and then hits free agency in 2015, unless Rudy Gay has an even better season, then he could be a second tier option. Perhaps there is a chance that a team misses out on one of the top guys and then over pays Rudy Gay, but it is a risk hitting free agency with that many top tier guys.
If Gay opts out of his contract then he stands to be one of the best players on the free agent market. His stock is relatively high. So he could pick his destination, and get a long term, lucrative contract. There will be enough teams with cap space that could afford to sign him, for example the Charlotte Bobcats have put themselves in an awkward position. They aren't good enough to contend a championship, but aren't bad enough to contend for a top pick. They have a hole at SF and for a scorer, so with $19 million in cap space Rudy Gay could get a big money deal and fill a hole. Then there are teams like the Washington Wizards, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks and so on. He might not get anywhere near the $19 million he would get here. But he could certainly cash-in and grab the security of a long term, lucrative deal.
What it comes down to is a gamble. He can take the easy money, but that comes with the risk of what happens if he suffers a major injury or dip in form, either of which could affect his chances of a big pay day. Or he can opt out and get a big(ish) pay day right now. He might stand to lose some money on next season's salary, but with his current market value, he could stand to land a fairly big pay day by a team that needs a SF to take that next step.
If Gay plays out his contract then he could potentially hit free agency with the likes of Kevin Love, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Marc Gasol and co. Now granted that market is based on guys not opting out, being part of sign-and-trades, or signing new deals with their existing team. But if everyone stays at their existing team and then hits free agency in 2015, unless Rudy Gay has an even better season, then he could be a second tier option. Perhaps there is a chance that a team misses out on one of the top guys and then over pays Rudy Gay, but it is a risk hitting free agency with that many top tier guys.
If Gay opts out of his contract then he stands to be one of the best players on the free agent market. His stock is relatively high. So he could pick his destination, and get a long term, lucrative contract. There will be enough teams with cap space that could afford to sign him, for example the Charlotte Bobcats have put themselves in an awkward position. They aren't good enough to contend a championship, but aren't bad enough to contend for a top pick. They have a hole at SF and for a scorer, so with $19 million in cap space Rudy Gay could get a big money deal and fill a hole. Then there are teams like the Washington Wizards, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks and so on. He might not get anywhere near the $19 million he would get here. But he could certainly cash-in and grab the security of a long term, lucrative deal.
What it comes down to is a gamble. He can take the easy money, but that comes with the risk of what happens if he suffers a major injury or dip in form, either of which could affect his chances of a big pay day. Or he can opt out and get a big(ish) pay day right now. He might stand to lose some money on next season's salary, but with his current market value, he could stand to land a fairly big pay day by a team that needs a SF to take that next step.
MKG and Jeff Taylor are both still on their roster next season so your assertion that they have a hole at SF is dubious at best. While MKG's career hasn't exactly started out like Lebron's, I'm not quite sure MJ is ready to pull the plug on him quite yet.
Washington has absolutely no room for another scorer, has to resign Gortat and most of the rest of their roster (Wall, Nene, Webster, Brad Beal, Andre Miller, and Otto Porter are the only ones on the payroll next season), and probably isn't going to want to replace Ariza (who they will have to resign) anyways.
Cleveland may be a more likely destination, with their ample cap space AND their probably inability to resign Deng. However, I can see them throwing a crapton of money at Gortat in an attempt to finally get some sort of steady inside presence for their roster and then tossing the rest of the money at Deng rather than offering a lot to Rudy. Not to mention, it's Cleveland which means they'll do something stupid like rehire Mike Brown... oh wait, that already happened.
The Dallas situation is really dependent on what happens to them in the playoffs and beyond. As is, Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion, Vince Carter, Devin Harris, and DeJuan Blair are all free agents after this season (In other words, most of their rotation). Depending on who retires or isn't resigned, Dallas can become an increasingly of decreasingly interesting destination for Rudy since I'm pretty sure playing with Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis is more enticing than playing with Monta Ellis and the crappy ghost of Samuel Dalembert and the re-signing of Shawn Marion would essentially end the threat of Dallas (for at least this year).
So yes, while he has plenty of options, these options also have plenty of asterisks.
Washington has absolutely no room for another scorer, has to resign Gortat and most of the rest of their roster (Wall, Nene, Webster, Brad Beal, Andre Miller, and Otto Porter are the only ones on the payroll next season), and probably isn't going to want to replace Ariza (who they will have to resign) anyways.
Cleveland may be a more likely destination, with their ample cap space AND their probably inability to resign Deng. However, I can see them throwing a crapton of money at Gortat in an attempt to finally get some sort of steady inside presence for their roster and then tossing the rest of the money at Deng rather than offering a lot to Rudy. Not to mention, it's Cleveland which means they'll do something stupid like rehire Mike Brown... oh wait, that already happened.
The Dallas situation is really dependent on what happens to them in the playoffs and beyond. As is, Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion, Vince Carter, Devin Harris, and DeJuan Blair are all free agents after this season (In other words, most of their rotation). Depending on who retires or isn't resigned, Dallas can become an increasingly of decreasingly interesting destination for Rudy since I'm pretty sure playing with Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis is more enticing than playing with Monta Ellis and the crappy ghost of Samuel Dalembert and the re-signing of Shawn Marion would essentially end the threat of Dallas (for at least this year).
So yes, while he has plenty of options, these options also have plenty of asterisks.
I do agree that the examples I used have plenty of asterisks, but ultimately there is a market out there for a player like Rudy Gay. Ideally I would like us to bring him back, but I could see a 7th or 8th seed type team being willing to pay top dollar to bring him in, in order to help them take that next step. Because a team like the Bobcats, Wizards, Mavericks etc won't be in a position to draft a game changer. So the addition of Gay to any of those teams could help them take that next step. In the Wizards case it probably is unlikely, but they do have the space if needed.
That being said. I do see the Bobcats as potential suitor. MKG has a lot of upside, but he's also quite raw offensively. This season they improved a lot defensively by only allowing 97.1 ppg, which saw them ranked 4th in the league behind Memphis, Indiana and Chicago. It was offensively that they struggled by scoring an average of 96.9 ppg which ranked them 23rd overall. Their main threats were Kemba Walker and Al Jefferson. If they slotted Rudy Gay in at SF, that could improve their offense and help them become more of a threat in the eastern conference. Granted MKG could improve into a decent player, but will his offense ever catch up his defense? I'm not sure. If they have him there as a defender, then they'll need to improve their scoring in other positions.
And Dallas could be an interesting destination for him. I can't see them not bringing back Dirk. So with Dirk at PF and Ellis at SG, putting Gay in at SF would give them some added scoring power. If they can get a solid PG and C, then their potential to become more of a contender in the Western conference is there. Don't get me wrong, Marion has done a solid job for them at SF for a number of seasons. But bringing in a player with Gay's ability and athleticism would give them an added edge. Now if they don't bring back Dirk, then it would depend on what they do in free agency. They could have enough space to go out and sign Rudy Gay and a big like Greg Monroe (if Detroit doesn't re-sign him). With those two additions the Mavs would be sorted at SG, SF, and PF. With a solid PG and C, they could still be a play off contender.
That being said. I do see the Bobcats as potential suitor. MKG has a lot of upside, but he's also quite raw offensively. This season they improved a lot defensively by only allowing 97.1 ppg, which saw them ranked 4th in the league behind Memphis, Indiana and Chicago. It was offensively that they struggled by scoring an average of 96.9 ppg which ranked them 23rd overall. Their main threats were Kemba Walker and Al Jefferson. If they slotted Rudy Gay in at SF, that could improve their offense and help them become more of a threat in the eastern conference. Granted MKG could improve into a decent player, but will his offense ever catch up his defense? I'm not sure. If they have him there as a defender, then they'll need to improve their scoring in other positions.
And Dallas could be an interesting destination for him. I can't see them not bringing back Dirk. So with Dirk at PF and Ellis at SG, putting Gay in at SF would give them some added scoring power. If they can get a solid PG and C, then their potential to become more of a contender in the Western conference is there. Don't get me wrong, Marion has done a solid job for them at SF for a number of seasons. But bringing in a player with Gay's ability and athleticism would give them an added edge. Now if they don't bring back Dirk, then it would depend on what they do in free agency. They could have enough space to go out and sign Rudy Gay and a big like Greg Monroe (if Detroit doesn't re-sign him). With those two additions the Mavs would be sorted at SG, SF, and PF. With a solid PG and C, they could still be a play off contender.
I see Phoenix more of a threat than those teams above, but Marc Stein's analysis of Charlotte's needs does sound like they'd be in the market for someone like Gay:
It's interesting how aggressive PDA is being toward Rudy Gay in comparison to Thomas.
I could go into more detail about the on the court stuff, but it's been said a million times.
But what I will say is that all this stuff keeps leading us closer and closer to Gay returning and Thomas leaving. As one of the bigger Thomas supporters here, I would be OK with it depending on what else we do.
As I mentioned in another thread, for better or worse (and for a lot of you it would trend on the 'worse' side) but I think Thomas let go + Smart drafted is really in play.
Ennis would be a dark horse pick, too. I know PDA watched him play live, in person a few times. They showed him at some syracuse games. And if you listen to what PDA has said, he might fit more of what he's looking for than Smart. He can shoot, and he can pass. My only qualm is he'd be a reach at #7. But I don't hate him.
If we could take the fact that Ennis would be a reach at #7 out of it, you can see a scenario where Ennis makes more sense with Cousins and Gay than Thomas does, but you just don't know for sure until you see it, and Ennis wouldn't be doing much of anything to help our defensive efforts.
Oh, and there is also the possibility the Kings slide back a few spots after the lottery. So theres that.
I could go into more detail about the on the court stuff, but it's been said a million times.
But what I will say is that all this stuff keeps leading us closer and closer to Gay returning and Thomas leaving. As one of the bigger Thomas supporters here, I would be OK with it depending on what else we do.
As I mentioned in another thread, for better or worse (and for a lot of you it would trend on the 'worse' side) but I think Thomas let go + Smart drafted is really in play.
Ennis would be a dark horse pick, too. I know PDA watched him play live, in person a few times. They showed him at some syracuse games. And if you listen to what PDA has said, he might fit more of what he's looking for than Smart. He can shoot, and he can pass. My only qualm is he'd be a reach at #7. But I don't hate him.
If we could take the fact that Ennis would be a reach at #7 out of it, you can see a scenario where Ennis makes more sense with Cousins and Gay than Thomas does, but you just don't know for sure until you see it, and Ennis wouldn't be doing much of anything to help our defensive efforts.
Oh, and there is also the possibility the Kings slide back a few spots after the lottery. So theres that.
It is interesting how aggressive PDA seems to be in wanting to keep Gay, but not so much in wanting to keep Thomas, unless this is a smokescreen for what he really wants to do. I really like the fact that PDA is so open about his feelings on things as opposed to other GMs, but he seems so open about this situation that it seems like a little much. He has said that he didn't trade for Gay simply to have him for one year, translation being that he plans on doing whatever it takes to keep him. He has also said that he has a number decided on what to pay Thomas and if Thomas wants more than he will probably move on, translation being that he already has another point guard that he's interested in. Perhaps this is all true, but just seems a little too revealing to me for it to be the complete truth.
I honestly hope that Gay decides to opt out and that he doesn't sign long-term here. I wrote a thread about this a little while back. He looks much better than he really is. He is a scorer, not a shooter. His shooting percentage went up because he got to take so many shots from 5 to 10 feet which is the way the Kings' offense is set up, a lot of one on one play. When it came to midrange and 3-point shooting his percentages dropped significantly into below average range. This is why he didn't shoot well in Memphis or Toronto, those are passing style offenses where outside shooting is more important than penetration and posting up. Also don't forget that Gay is a below average defender and rebounder who is turnover prone. The proof is out there, Memphis and Toronto became instantly better when Gay left. They fell for it and realized they had made a mistake and did whatever they could to move him. I don't want us to fall for it too.
I honestly hope that Gay decides to opt out and that he doesn't sign long-term here. I wrote a thread about this a little while back. He looks much better than he really is. He is a scorer, not a shooter. His shooting percentage went up because he got to take so many shots from 5 to 10 feet which is the way the Kings' offense is set up, a lot of one on one play. When it came to midrange and 3-point shooting his percentages dropped significantly into below average range. This is why he didn't shoot well in Memphis or Toronto, those are passing style offenses where outside shooting is more important than penetration and posting up. Also don't forget that Gay is a below average defender and rebounder who is turnover prone. The proof is out there, Memphis and Toronto became instantly better when Gay left. They fell for it and realized they had made a mistake and did whatever they could to move him. I don't want us to fall for it too.
I am also somewhat circumspect about the PDA comments. With Petrie you had a long track record that allowed you to have a feel for what might be coming. With PDA, we have very little experience to go on. After this summer, we'll have a little more data to figure out exactly how candid he is (or not) in his comments.
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Gay is a decent three point shooter. He's been knocking down those opener 3 pt jumpers quite consistently. The only issue with Gay is that he needs to learn to be selective with his shots and he's done that quite well this season for us. He's been a good team player and #1 scoring option when Cousins is on the bench. I would be willing to give up Gay but not until next off-season (possibly in a trade). Right now, Ben Mac is not what many of us expected. So, if Ben Mac proves to be the D&3 that we were looking for then we can offload Gay. The other option is getting one of Parker/Wiggins.
I honestly hope that Gay decides to opt out and that he doesn't sign long-term here. I wrote a thread about this a little while back. He looks much better than he really is. He is a scorer, not a shooter. His shooting percentage went up because he got to take so many shots from 5 to 10 feet which is the way the Kings' offense is set up, a lot of one on one play. When it came to midrange and 3-point shooting his percentages dropped significantly into below average range. This is why he didn't shoot well in Memphis or Toronto, those are passing style offenses where outside shooting is more important than penetration and posting up. Also don't forget that Gay is a below average defender and rebounder who is turnover prone. The proof is out there, Memphis and Toronto became instantly better when Gay left. They fell for it and realized they had made a mistake and did whatever they could to move him. I don't want us to fall for it too.[/quote]