2014 Draft Prospects:

bajaden · Aug 18, 2013

Wayne Selden: 6'6" with shoes, 223 Lbs, 6'10" wingspan (measurements from Lebron Skills Academy), Kansas.

This is a kid I like a lot. Apparently more than Draft Express. I've seen him play several times. His highschool is an east coast powerhouse, so they got some air time. Plus he played in the McDonald's all american game, Lebron James game and the Nike Summit challenge game. He's a very good athlete, and already has an NBA body. Offensively he does a little bit of everything, including being a very good passer. While his outside shot is a little inconsistent at times, he has very good form. His ballhandling, while not exceptional, is still good for a SG and he has time to improve. He's a good finisher at the basket, and he's not afraid of contact. I wouldn't call him an explosive leaper, but he can certainly play above the rim. He gives a 100% effort every minute he's on the floor. Defensively, he's a lot like most players his age. He gives the effort, and gets his share of blocked shot, but he has a much to learn about team defense. He's certainly athletic enough to become a good defensive player, and it should be fun to see him on the floor with his running mate at Kansas, Andrew Wiggins. When you add the 7 footer, Joel Embiid, Kansas should be very good this year. Here's a video.

Arby's Roast Beef · Aug 18, 2013

Hey Baja, one thing I like to do is compare past assessments with current assessments. I remember your writeups two years ago on several prospects. Just curious, has your assessment changed on these guys?

bajaden · Aug 19, 2013

Arby's Roast Beef said:

Well, as they say, hindsight is 100%. I think a lot of what I said about Wiltjer was right on, and to some extent, the book is still out on him. In highschool he was a very good post player. At Kentucky, he never really got a chance to play in the post. Calapari didn't need him there, and basicly turned him into a spot up shooter. I do think I misjudged his athletic ability which is easy to do in highschool. I never said he was a great athlete, but once exposed to better college athlete's, it was much easier to judge his ability. I'm curious to see how he's used at Gonzaga.

McAdoo on the other hand has been a huge disappointment to me. I haven't seen much improvement since his freshman year. His overall physical appearance hasn't changed, or improved much either. In Wiltjer's case, I attribute some of his lack of expected achievement on how he was used at Kentucky. But I can't apply the same excuse to McAdoo. This isn't an exact science, and sometimes highschool achievements don't translate to college, and later the NBA. Shabazz Muhammad was a very dominate highschool player, but it was quickly apparent to me that he just wasn't the same player at UCLA.

I also think that the longer you do this sort of thing, that hopefully the better you get at it. I critique myself all the time. I go back and re-read what I wrote 2 or 3 years ago, and wonder how I came to that conclusion, and how I can improve in that area. But as you know, your going to get some right, and some wrong. I was dead right about Kenneth Faried, and Chandler Parsons, and many others. But I've been wrong about many as well. I will say this. There are players that reach out and grab me for some reason. I watch them play, and something inside just says, this kid is going to be a very good player in the NBA. When I've felt that way, I've seldom been wrong. On the other hand, whenever I've tried to talk myself into liking a player, I've almost always regretted it. Thomas Robinson immediately springs to mind, among'st others.

You'll notice that my write ups are shorter now, and my future projections are in general, more reserved, and potential based. There are people on the forum that have never heard of some of these players. My intent is nothing more than a heads up for those that are interested. But everyone should be aware that what I write is just my opinion. An opinion that will change as the college season progresses. I have no control over the progress of a player. All I can do is report it.

bajaden · Aug 23, 2013

Dakari Johnson: 6'11" with shoes, 263 Lbs, 7'0" wingspan (measurements from the Lebron James skills academy), Kentucky.

Johnson is an interesting prospect. He's only 17 years old and won't turn 18 until sept. He's been growing at about an inch a year of late, so its possible he's not done yet. He already has a great body, and for some reason he reminds me of Andrew Bynum when he plays. The good Bynum! What Johnson lacks is elite athleticism, but aside from that, he definitely has potential. He's a very good shotblocker at the highschool level, where he was a man among'st boys. How well that translates to the next level remains to be seen. His back to the basket game is pretty good for a young player. At the moment he's mostly right handed. He has a very good flip hook that he uses out to around 10 feet. He also has a turnaround shot that almost looks like a variation of the flip hook. He uses drop steps fairly well near the basket. His offensive game has a way to go, but he already has a decent foundation to build on. He has very good hands, and rebounds the ball well, especially on the offensive end. How much time he'll get at Kentucky this year is debatable. Cauley Stein is the starter, and they also have Marcus Lee. Johnson reportedly has a very good work ethic, and is a good character guy both on and off the court. I'm anxious to see his progress this season. Here's a short video.

bajaden · Aug 30, 2013

Anthony (Cat) Barber: PG, 6'2" with shoes, 168 Lbs, 6'4" wingspan (measurements from Nike Summit) North Carolina St.

Barber's nickname is the Cat. Because he has catlike quickness. He's an outstanding ballhandler that loves to attack the basket and either score, or dish the ball in traffic. He's very good finisher with excellent leaping ability. He's also a pretty consistent outside shooter, with a good mid-range pull up shot. However, despite his consistency, his mechanics need fixing. He tends to shotput the shot a little, and his release point is a bit low. He's an excellent defender at the highschool level. He's an extremely aggressive on the ball defender, as well as playing the passing lanes well. How all this translates to college remains to be seen. He definitely needs to get in the weight room and add strength if he's going to be banging with much stronger, and more mature players. But he's a very good prospect for the future. He has a lot going for him, and if he continues to hone his game, I can see him possibly being a first round pick in the future. Here's a video.

bajaden · Sep 7, 2013

Rasheed Sulaimon: SG, 6'4.25", 186 Lbs, 6'8" wingspan (measurements from Nike Hoop Summit), Duke

Sulaimon is one of the most underrated players in college basketball. He came to Duke last year as one of the top highschool PG's, and was asked to switch over to SG, which with his height, and 6'8" wingspan he was successfully able to do. He's one of the most versatile players on the team. He handles the ball extremely well and has a deadly crossover dribble. He's the consummate team player. He's a willing and excellent passer. He also shot the ball from the three well for a freshman averaging 37.1%. He's was most deadly from midrange, hitting 44% of his shots from there. But his strength is getting into the lane and either finishing, or dishing. What makes Sulaimon appealing to me is that he's an excellent defender as well. He has great lateral quickness, and can guard three positions from PG to SF. Lets put it this way. If the Kings had a team full of Sulaimon's, they'd win a lot more games. Obviously I like Sulaimon quite a bit. Right now he's projected late first, early second round. If he's there in the second round, you take him, regardless of how many guards you have. Figure it out later. Here's a video.

bajaden · Sep 9, 2013

Kuran Iverson: SF, 6'8.5", 202 Lbs, 7'0" wingspan (measurements from the Lebron James skills academy), Memphis

I'm somewhat reluctant to post Iverson, but he does have talent, and he is a SF. He's also Allen Iverson's cousin. Unfortunately, at times he thinks he is Allen Iverson, and that's what gets him into trouble. He's a good athlete with great size and length for the SF position. He has a frame that can easily carry more weight. Offensively he likes to attack the basket, but other than alley opps, he always starts his attack from the three point line. He fancies himself a great ballhandler, but in reality, he's very loose with the ball, and I think he's in for a rude awakening when he plays his first college game. He does have some nice spin moves, and is fairly consistent with his jumpshot when he's set, and in balance. However, too many times he forces up shots that have little or no chance at going in. I saw one of his games on Television against one of the top ranked highschool teams in the nation, and he was just terrible. Defensively, he's about as good as he is offensively. So why even write him up? Because he does have talent, and if he's willing to open his mind and put in the work, he can be a very good player. I don't see him as a one and done player. Unless of course he's stupid. But he could be a player worth watching for future reference. Here's a video!

bajaden · Sep 9, 2013

Jabari Bird: SG, 6'5.5", 179 Lbs, 6'7" wingspan (measurements from McDonalds All-American Game), California

I really like Bird, and it has nothing to do with Larry. Jabari played SF in highschool, but he'll have to transition to SG in college. He has neither the height, length, or strength to play Sf at the next level, or in the NBA. However, he does have two of those requirements for SG, and if he can get stronger as well, so much the better. He's a very talented player that is a terrific finisher at the basket. He can score with either hand. He tends to attack from left to right more often than not, but he's quite capable of going the other way as well. He has an excellent mid-range game. He does need to get more consistent with his three point shot, but its hardly a liability. He handles the ball very well, and he's a willing passer. Defensively he's very good at the highschool level, particularly as a weakside help defender where he gets his share of blocked shots. How all this translates to college remains to be seen. But give him a couple of years under Montgomery, and I think you'll possibly see a lottery pick, or at worse a first round pick. Depending on his freshman year, he could be a one and done player. But I personally think he would be best served to stay for at least two year. This coming draft isn't one that you want to come out early in unless your part of the rare air group. Here's a video!

bajaden · Sep 15, 2013

Tyler Robinson: SF/PF, 6'8", 201 Lbs, 7'1" wingspan (measurements from Jordan Brand Classic), Syracuse.

Robinson is a fairly talented player. The question is, what is he. He played PF in highschool, but he certainly athletic enough to play SF. He has a very nice looking Jumpshot with a high release, and he's fairly consistent with it. He handles the ball fairly well, and he's a decent passer. He's also capable of playing above the rim. Where it gets a little confusing with Robinson, is that he's also skilled in the post with a variety of moves. He likes to attack the basket as part of his face up game. Not sure his ballhandling is good enough at the next level, but we'll see. He a very good weakside help defender that gets his share of blocked shots. I guess you could say that Robinson is decent to good at everything, but not great at anything. But he has a nice foundation to build on. Its a shame he's going to Syracuse where they play nothing but a zone on defense. Here's a video.

bajaden · Sep 15, 2013

Isaiah Austin: Center, 7'1", 220 Lbs, 7'3" wingspan, 9'3" standing reach, (Measurements from Nike Summit) Baylor.

Freshman year: 29.8 MPG, 13 PPG, 45.9% FGP, 33.3% 3PP, 8.3 RPG, 1.7 Blocks per game

Austin is the nephew of ex-NBA player, Ike Austin. He's an intriguing prospect. He's a very good athlete that can play above the rim. He's also very very skilled for a big man. He almost handles the ball like a guard, not afraid to put it on the floor in traffic and attack. He has excellent hands, and rebounds the ball well. He has a face up game, and he can score in the post, at times looking like Kareem Abdul Jabbar with his goggles and sky hook. Unfortunately he's not! Defensively, at least at the college level so far, he's a great rim protector. My only knock on him defensively is that he appears to lose concentration at times. But he blocked 1.7 shots a game, and altered many more. So whats not to like? Well, how about he took 394 shot attempts last season for Baylor, and 90 of them were three point attempts. The only reason his total field goal percentage is so low, is because of his three point attempts. He has a nice looking jumpshot. If he kept his attempts limited to 18 feet and in, he would be more effective. I like his ability to play away from the basket, I just don't want him to fall in love with his jumpshot. I'll be spending a lot of time watching him this season. I'm glad he decided to come back for another year, even though its likely to cost him money. He went from a sure top 10 pick, to somewhere from the middle of the first round to late first round, depending on how he plays. Here's a video.

Hallama · Sep 16, 2013

Really like Exum. Drooling over the prospects of him and Ben in the backcourt, as Exum compliments him nicely. Size, PG skills, all-around great bball player. Like his focus and footwork on defense too, instincts are there. If his 3pt shot improves over the years, this guy is a future All-Star imo.

Wonder if he'll try and play in the NCAA this year? Might be risky for his draft stock but he seems like a competitor.

bajaden · Sep 16, 2013

Hallama said:

I like Exum as well. He has excellent PG skills, and is a terrific athlete. Put him in the back court with McLemore, and you have one of the most athletic back courts in the league, as well as one with great size, with Exum being 6'6". There's going to be a lot of great talent everywhere in the lottery, and below. At worse we'd walk away with a Willie Cauley-Stein, or a Joel Embiid, two 7 foot athletic shotblockers. At best we'd walk away with a Wiggins, Randle, Parker, or Exum. As to Exum and college, I'm not sure what he's going to do. He could join a team in December or January, or he could just hold tight and enter the draft after the season. One other option, is to wait till next year to commit to a college team and then enter the 2014/15 draft. He has lots of options.

By the way, thanks for the response. Sometimes I think I'm here talking to myself. Still a nice conversation, but a little one sided.

bajaden · Sep 18, 2013

Mitch McGary: C/PF, 6'11" with shoes, 258 Lbs, 7'0" wingspan, 8'11.5" standing reach (Measurements from Lebron Skills Academy), Michigan.

Freshman year: 19.5 MPG, 7.5 PPG, 59.8% FGP, 6.3 RPG. 1.0 SPG, 0.7 BPG
Per 36 minutes: 13.8 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 2.0 SPG

McGary was one of the most highly recruited highschool players in the nation. He rejected offers from Kentucky, Duke etc. to choose Michigan. He was one player I had high on my list to watch, and was disappointed to see he wasn't getting many minutes, and wasn't starting. One thing to note, is that it was discovered that McGary suffers from Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. And, he takes no medication for it. It wasn't until the starting center, Morgan went down with an injury, that McGary began to come into his own, along with a lot of attention from the head coach, who kept preaching for him to slow everything down. Apparently it paid off because McGary almost singlehandedly got them to within hands reach of an NCAA championship. This will be an important year for McGary. If he can pick up where he left off, he'll certainly be a lottery pick, and maybe work his way up into the top five. He plays at top speed all the time and has a terrific nose for the ball. Defensively he has a very strong lower body with which he holds position, and very quick hands which leads to steals. Offensively his post game is still raw, and he scores most of his points on putbacks, and in transition. He has a very quick first step off the dribble, and is a much better athlete than he appears to be at first glance. He doesn't have much of a face up game, but does use a jumpshot on occasion from 12 feet in that's fairly consistent. He's been compared by some to Bill Laimbeer, because of his physical play, but he reminds me of a more physical David Lee. As one scout put it, McGary can either go over you, or through you. Here's a video.

Arby's Roast Beef · Sep 25, 2013

Baja,

I was wondering if you had any insights on the small forward duo of Justin Anderson and Evan Nolte. I'm super high on both, and I can see scenarios, where if everything falls in place, they're lottery picks.

And how about Iowa's Aaron White, Michigan's Nik Stauskas and VCU's Briante Weber? Slightly lower in my list, but I'd like to hear about Wake Forest's Devin Thomas, Gonzaga's Kevin Pangos and Clemson's KJ McDaniels as well.

bajaden · Sep 28, 2013

Arby's Roast Beef said:

Sorry I'm late getting back to you. Been busy getting ready for company. You've given me a lot to respond to properly. Several of these players I know better than others, so I had to go back and refer to my notes. I saw Virginia play quite a bit last season, so I'm familiar with both Nolte and Anderson. Of the two, at the moment, I like Nolte the most. However, I'm sure most scouts would say that Anderson has the most upside. There's no doubt that Anderson is the better athlete, but my problem with his is what position does he play. In highschool, he played PF, but at 6'6", that's going to be a tough transition to the NBA, even with his huge wingspan. My other problem with him, ist that for a PF, he simply didn't rebound very well last season averaging 3.3 boards a game, which translates to 5 boards per 36 minutes. So the question is, can he play SF. If so, I see him as an Iggy type of SF because he's a terrific defender. But once again, he's very inconsistent with his jumpshot, and he's an average ballhandler at best. However, he's certainly athletic enough for the position, and he's extremely strong.

Nolte on the other hand, is more skilled overall, and while not quite the athlete Anderson is, he's certainly athletic enough for the SF position. He's a better ballhandler, and jump shooter, plus, he's 6'8". He's also, like Anderson, a very good defender. He's what I call a blue collar player. He does a little bit of everything on the floor, and goes at a 100% all the time. So, at the moment, I like Nolte better of the two. Anderson is young, and last season was his freshman year, so he has time to improve. However, there is no way on this gods earth that either have a chance of being a lottery pick in the next draft. I doubt that either would be taken in the first round. Now if you want to talk two or three years down the road, depending on which player your talking about, then its possible that one or both could move up into the first round, and just maybe into the lottery. But there would have to be tremendous improvement by either or both.

Two other players that I saw play a lot were Kevin Pangos, the PG from Gonazga, and Nik Stauskas, the SG/SF from Michigan. Of the two, I'd give the best chance to play in the NBA to Stauskas, simply because he's such a good shooter. The dude shot 43.9% from the three last season, and some of those threes were off the dribble, where he's not quite as consistent. Leave him open, and he's money. There is always a place in the NBA for a shooter. He also handles the ball fairly well. He's not a very good finisher at the basket, and doesn't try to attack the basket very much. He's not a good defender, but puts in the effort. He's handicaped by poor lateral quickness.

Pangos is a very good college player, but I'm not sure he has enough overall talent to make it in the NBA. And I say that with him being one of my favorite players to watch. He's a very good leader! Does everything fairly well, but he's not the best athlete in the world, and no one part of his game makes you stand up and say wow. He's a smart savy player with good BBIQ, and who shoots the ball fairly well, averagiing 41.9% from the three last season. However, he doesn't take many shots. He's an average defender. The word average seems to define him, and that's the problem. I see Pangos being a college head coach one day. Hey, I hope I'm wrong about him, and he finds a nitch in the NBA.

I'll cover one more and save the rest for later. Aaron White: I really like White, and he was a surprise to me. He's a 6'8" SF who is capable of also playing some PF, although I think SF is his position. He's a very versatile player, and sort of reminds me a little of Chandler Parsons when he was at Florida. Doesn't look like a star, but always seems to be around the ball or the defensive play. He's one of those guys I call a glue guy. He has a great motor, and is always running the floor. He broke into the starting lineup as a freshman, which no one expected. He's not an explosive athlete, but I'd call him an above average athlete. He rebounds well, averaging 6.2 a game, and almost had a triple double at the end of the season. He's also a pretty good passer. So whats not to like, you ask? Well, his 22% shooting from beyond the three point line for one thing. Thats probably the weakest part of his game. If he can improve his outside shot, I can see him being a 1st round pick in a year or two. White plays for Iowa by the way, for those that are interested.

bajaden · Sep 28, 2013

Alright, I've had my lunch, so I finish my thoughts on these players. I'm not going to comment on Briante Weber, since I simply don't remember much about him, and I can't find anything in my Virginia Commonwealth notes about him. Obviously he didn't do anything to make me take notice when I watched his team play. Doesn't mean he's a bad player, it just means I didn't get to see VCU play very much, and on the occasion I did, he just didn't stand out to me.

Devin Thomas I do remember, even though, once again, I didn't see Wake Forest play very much last season. But between my notes, and my memory, which unless you really imprint me, isn't that good, this is what I remember. He's an average athlete. Doesn't appear to have above average leaping ability. He struck me as a blue collar, hard working player with good BBIQ. He did all of his scoring for the most part in the post, which is fine, considering that he's a 6'9" PF. I've noted that his jumpshot left a lot to be desired, and wasn't very pretty. I'll catch him again this year and see if there's any improvement. He seemed to be hustling all the time, and worked hard on defense. He also rebounded well. At the moment, if he were in next years draft, I almost bet he goes undrafted. However, I believe he'll be a junior his season, so if stays for two more years, who knows?

That brings us to K.J. McDaniels, a 6'6" SG/SF. He has a decent wingspan at almost 6'10", so he plays bigger than his 6'6" would dictate. I happen to like McDaniels quite a bit. He's a freak athlete that can jump out of the building. He's a pretty good catch and shoot shooter. But his percentages really fall off if he has to shoot off the dribble. His ballhandling is average at best, so his ability to create off the dribble is poor. The thing is, he has decent to good form on his shot, so I think his shooting woes can be corrected. This is a kid that if he can improve both his ballhandling, and his outside shot, has the potential to be a first round pick, and maybe a lottery pick. Of course I could say that about a lot of players that are extremely athletic. What he does do well, is defend. He hustles all the time, so he does put in the effort. Sadly he reminds me of so many very athletic players that were able to get by on their athleticism, and when they reach the NBA, they find that's not enough. So hopefully a light will go off in his head, and he'll work hard on his deficiencies. He is one on my list to watch.

Arby's Roast Beef · Sep 28, 2013

Thanks as always, baja.

BTW, the players I bring up tend to be fill-in-the-blanks type players or uber athletes I perceive with major defensive potential. I think you can tell that commonality between all those players I brought up. Never the gigantic scorer.

I've heard a lot of stuff about Anderson once being the #1 high school prospect before he peaked early. Didn't he have an NBA body in high school? I think Anderson's a smart player on both ends--he passes the ball well and recognizes the weak spot in defensive schemes, and puts himself in good defensive positioning at the college level by blocking shots without fouling. He doesn't look to score and on top of that has a questionable jumper, but his mechanics are fine and I think that's something that would improve in time. He had a high skill set at a young age so he hasn't progressed as promised, but at the same time NBA-wise, between his body and his skills, he's got a good base to build off of. Should at least get role player chances in this league--a combination of passing, defense, and an NBA body with decent athleticism doesn't grow on trees. The NBA values intelligent fill-in-the-blanks players, and Anderson can fill that role. I'm a huge fan of Iggy which is why I thought future lottery pick, but yeah, that's premature.

I think you're right about Pangos. He theoretically acts like a PG in that he isn't a ball hog, but he does it in the way that a Derek Fisher or Antonio Daniels does it. In other words, he's far more comfortable with a low usage rate and spotting up from long distance than he is actually coordinating an offense for a prolonged period of time, while minimizing turnovers, rather than racking up assists left and right. Gonzaga certainly has given him the designated shooter role and that has to be his bread and butter in any league he makes it to. I agree, nothing really stands out, but he doesn't have any real weaknesses that can be exploited at the college level. Just that besides spot up shooting, there isn't much dynamics that the NBA really loves in their PGs. I think he's smart enough to have a 10-year career in a Kevin Ollie type role somewhere though.

Weber can't score and shoot from deep, and that tends to be a death knell for any aspiring NBA starting PG. Really athletic though--can slash, rebound and his ability to play the passing lanes is positively Ibrahim Jaaber-esque at the college level. I do think there's a role for him in that capacity. Probably a bit like Ronnie Price.

Stauskas is NBA-bound as a shooter. Playing a key role for that team making over two threes a game? Granted, there's not much else he can do to make himself NBA-viable, but improving his defense in small increments would help. Unfortunately, most shooters need all four years at the college level, and I'm not sure how much more Stauskas can improve from here on out. He's in a weird situation. There's always the chance that with defenses more keyed in on him, his shooting numbers will go wayward, and so will his stock. So he'll have to balance all that out.

McDaniels kinds of reminds of Alonzo Gee. Gee is another uber athlete with quick first and second jumps. He's again, playing a position up from his listed height, because his shooting isn't good enough and his handles are nonexistent. You either have handles or you don't, but if he can make his jumper semi-respectable he can use his athleticism to make plays on both ends of the court. I think he's more dynamic defensively than Gee for sure, and I think that he'll be effective on that end in the NBA. I like his ability there a lot.

Nolte is a hustling stat-stuffer. Again, scoring is the limiting reagant here, but NBA teams will absolutely love to have his ability to fill in the blanks next to scorers. Quintessential role player as long as he continues in his trajectory.

I agree with Aaron White. I think he'll be a pleasant surprise in the NBA as well.

The_Jamal · Oct 13, 2013

Great stuff Baja. Will be tuning into this thread throughout the season and contributing some stuff of my own. I follow college basketball with a mild-passion in normal years and I'm really planning on watching games this season

bajaden · Oct 14, 2013

The_Jamal said:

The more the merrier. I love other opinions. Not everyone see's things the same way, so its always nice to get another objective opinion. Although I've already posted small write ups on a lot of the players, I like to go back and update them as the season goes on. There's expectations, and then there's reality. The two aren't always the same. Sometimes that's good, and sometimes that's bad. I welcome your imput..

blackice · Oct 24, 2013

As I've mentioned a few months back, Jabari Parker or bust. I really feel he will be the best player coming out of that draft.

bajaden · Oct 24, 2013

blackice said:

Well lets see them all play first. He's certainly one of my top players to watch this season, but I'm not ready to nominate him as the best just yet. He is one of the most skilled players however, and if he had the athleticism of Wiggins, Randle, or Gordon, I'd move him to the number one spot to start the season. And by no means am I saying that Parker is unathletic. I'm hoping that Exum decides to play some college ball this season so I can get a closer look at him. I think he's going to be a tremendous player. I also like James Young a lot. So many players, so little time..

blackice · Oct 24, 2013

No doubt let's watch them play first against college competition, this is just purely a hunch on my part that's all. Every year I've been getting into College Basketball more and more and this year is going to be legit because there are just so many good prospects to keep an eye out on and I will be watching as many as I can. It's going to be a fun year for the NCAA.

Arby's Roast Beef · Oct 24, 2013

I guess I'll lend my opinion on college prospects here too (three a day maybe?)

Aaron Craft
--Caretaker point guard who uses the entire floor offensively, but lacks the usage rate and scoring ability of a starting PG in the NBA.
--Shooting was awful this season. Has shown a really good pull-up mid-ranger in the past (43%, 47% two seasons prior) and is a OK free throw shooter but considerably worse from distance.
--Good stocky build for the position. Excellent defender. Very good at making defensive plays, in particular with very quick hands for steals. Nondescript rebounder.

Aaron White
--Undersized power forward who aggressively scores by finishing at the rim. Excellent at drawing fouls. Little range (29% 2's, 27% 3's) but OK free throw shooting gives some hope.
--Good rebounder. Slightly subpar defensively, but makes defensive plays. OK build for position.

Adreian Payne
--Non-elusive, middling offensive scorer who specializes in efficiency over diversity. Excellent mid-range jumpshooter (40, 44% over past two seasons) with hints of greater range (38% 3's this year). Can also finish at the rim extremely well (73, 80% past two seasons) but not a passer. Has used his time in college to rapidly improve his shooting touch and range, but there are concerns with deviation to the mean, given the disconnect between his improving touch and poor average free throw percentage.
--Excellent defensive player. Good defensive playmaker. Decent rebounder.
--Might be better as a face-up center in the NBA, but if so, has a poor frame for the position. Two-way potential, but at the very least should be able to hang his hat on defense.

bajaden · Oct 24, 2013

Arby's Roast Beef said:

Well you named two of my favorites in Craft and Payne. Craft is without a doubt one of, if not the best PG defenders in college. At times he just amazes me. Sometimes it appears that he's able to read the other players mind and knows exactly where he trying to go. The question is, does he have the other skills to play PG in the NBA? A lot of people that don't watch college basketball don't know much about Payne, but I think he definitely has a good future in the NBA. He's a very underrated player. He has good size for the PF position, and he's developed a nice offensive game to go along with his defensive ability. He's just one of those efficient players that gets the job done without being splashy.

I'm not as high on White as I'am Payne, but I like him. He's a little undersized for the PF position, and would certainly need to get stronger as well. I've wondered if he can become efficient enough with his outside shot to play the SF position. So far no, but there's still time.

Arby's Roast Beef · Oct 25, 2013

Alan Williams
--Extremely undersized scoring center who mostly relies on set-ups to score, and ramped up his usage to stratospheric levels this past year. Never passes once he touches the ball, but with spot-up inclined game not turnover prone.
--Top notch offensive rebounder, but an awful finisher whether through tip-ins or set-ups, and really struggles to draw fouls given frequency of at-rim attacks. Much improved spot-up mid-range jumper that might just be OK in the aggregate, corroborated with subpar free throw shooting. Has a slight base for an OK mid-range jumper with offensive rebounding, but both have real concerns in execution and could lack an offensive niche.
--Very good defender. Makes a ton of defensive plays, being an excellent shotblocker for size but also a decent stealer. Absolutely top notch rebounder, especially for size. Very awful body frame for an NBA center and is a major tweener two positions below his height, but has an excellent defensive base and slight potential on offense, which could make him at least a Chuck Hayes, and possibly with better offense.

Alex Poythress
--Scoring big who can set up shots for himself with an OK ability to use the entire floor. Inside scorer with elite finishing ability, whether set up or off his own devices.
--Still really trying to figure out his NBA position. Absolutely puts the blinders on in offense, and very prone to turnovers, with these intangibles being two positions down if he is to be a small forward. His shooting game has slightly more potential, as he shot 41% from spot-up threes, but on a very small sample size, but he does have a workable, albeit slightly subpar free throw percentage. Trainwreck pull-up jumper however.
--Very poor defender. Absolutely pathetic defensive playmaking with just OK rebounding ability. His defense might be further compounded by positional concerns in the NBA, where he might need to be crossmatched between forward positions. To really stick in the NBA, he'll have to prove that his long range jumper is viable and develop into possibly an inside-outside threat to counteract the lack of defense, crossmatching, passing and handles, but there's a cap to how much he can do. There's a resemblance to Carl Landry here.

Amedeo Della Valle
--Spot-up long range shooter who just takes spot-up threes all day for his shots and hits them (40%), but grain of salt given that he's a very poor free throw shooter. No mid-range game or at-rim game.
--Not a passer, and very poor handles especially for a spot-up. Ballhandling and passing ability are about two steps down from listed height.
--Excellent defender. Very good rebounder. Very good defensive playmaker, in particular with the ability to block shots. Very defined, niche player, but has ability on both ends, but we'll really have to see if we can sustain his shooting on offense.

bajaden · Oct 26, 2013

Arby's Roast Beef said:

I'm going to start with Poythress, since I saw just about every game he played last season, and I was very high on him coming out of highschool. Coming out of highschool, he was considered a SF, the position he played in highschool. Due to the lack of depth that Kentucky had last year, he was forced to play out of position at the PF spot. All in all, I thought he did a quick study and was at times fairly effective. But his main strength is away from the basket. This season, because of the depth Kentucky has, he should be able to move back to his normal position. I'm glad he stayed in school, and I'm sure Calipari is as well. He has some flaws to his game. Ballhandling being one, but with Kentucky running a dribble drive offense, its sure to improve. My biggest concern with him last season was his lack of aggression at times. Hopefully he'll start this season with more confidence, and separate himself from the rest of the pack a little.

Amedeo Della Valle is still pretty much an unknown quanity. He didn't get many minutes last season at Ohio St. He's one of those rare players that his 3PP was higher than his FGP. Which tells you he's in trouble when he has to put the ball on the floor and attack the basket, or try and shoot in traffic. He's probably going to get more minutes this season, so we'll have a better body of work to look at.

I'm not going to waste much time on Alan Williams. I doubt he'll ever see the inside of an NBA lockerroom. I can't see him playing center in the NBA. Despite his being undersized, he's pretty effective at UCSB in a mid-level conference. Its just that there are a lot of big men that I would rank higher than him. Some in mid-level conferences, like Robert Upshaw, the 7 footer from Fresno St. Or Eric Mika, the center at BYU. There's the kid at Harvard who I really like, and Harvard is going to have a very good team this year, Zena Edosomwan, a 6'9" PF. Of course I doubt that Della Valle will every see the inside of an NBA lockerroom either. Poythress will though!

Arby's Roast Beef · Oct 26, 2013

Thanks for the replies baja! Great to have someone with a lot of college expertise.

Next three:

Amir Williams
--Extremely low usage center with a submarine scoring rate, and in his rare attempts relies on set-ups to score. Has only six assists in 66 games for his college career, and a turnover waiting to happen.
--Plays mostly at the rim and is a very active offensive rebounder, but an awful finisher for size even despite being set-up. Does draw a ton of fouls, but also is a major hack candidate given submarine-awful free throw shooting. Significantly improved his rare spot-up mid-range attempts, but overall very poor in the aggregate, and obviously huge grain of salt with free throw percentage. Overall, very hopeless on the offensive end.
--Elite defender. Top notch defensive playmaker with very good ability to block shots. Good rebounder, but rebound rate particularly in defensive rebounding really dropped the past year. Just an OK frame for the NBA center position, and really needs to put on weight. Will really have to rely on his defense to make it to the NBA, but his frame isn't all that special and needs to maintain his rebounding.

Andre Hollins
--Undersized jumpshooting SG who utilizes a high usage rate to score with a mixture of set ups and isos. Combo guard levels of passing who for a jumpshooter really needs to watch out for turnovers.
--Very few at-rim attempts, really struggles to penetrate and rare tries display subpar finishing ability even when set up. Very poor mid-range game as well. His specialty is really hitting threes (39%, 42%), even off the dribble, corroborated by top notch free throw percentages. Also has a real knack for drawing fouls despite being a jumpshooter.
--Very poor defender with an awful frame to guard NBA shooting guards. Subpar defensive playmaker and rebounder. Will not only need to be crossmatched, but will likely need to be hidden. Can really shoot the ball, but his scoring instincts lead to poor decision making in the form of turnovers and a poor in-between game. Lacks the decision making and penetration ability to be more than a sparkplug, if that. Reminds of Jannero Pargo.

AJ Hammons
--High usage scoring-minded center who needs to be set up for his shots, but aggressively sets himself up for them.
--Prefers to camp out for spot-up mid rangers but only hits them at 33%, and just appears to be an OK free throw shooter for his size (68%) so there might be a cap to this ability. Also an excellent finisher off spoon feeds, but doesn't draw many fouls relative to the frequency of those attempts. Not turnover prone as he's not a creator, but also puts the blinders on when he touches the ball.
--Excellent defensive playmaker in form of shotblocks, with an excellent body frame. Just a decent rebounder for his size, and a decent to good defender. His offense has weaknesses both inside and outside, and he might find it more efficient to finish inside. His defense has major potential and is good, but he's lagging behind in some of the nuances.

bajaden · Oct 26, 2013

Robert Upshaw: Center, 7'0", 264 Lbs, 7'4" wingspan, (measurements from Adidas Nations) Fresno St.

Freshman year: 16.4 MPG, 4.1 PPG, 37.8% FGP, 3.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG.
Per 36: 9.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 3.9 BPG.

Upshaw is a big, strong and fairly athletic center. He runs the floor well, and while not a great leaper, he can occasionally play above the rim. His offense is a work in progress. He has a variety of dropsteps and a hook shot that he can shoot with either hand, but he's very inconsistent, and a bit mechanical. He does have good hands, and once he gets his hands on a ball, its his. He also has shown a little mid-range jumpshot. I've also seen him take an opponent off the dribble and go to the basket, ala Cousins. But he's a long way from being Cousins. Where he does excell is on the defensive side of the ball. He blocks shots at a high rate, and changes a large percentage as well. As shown above, his per 36 number is almost 4 blocks a game. What separates him from some of the other recent shot blockers, is his size. He's 7 foot in shoes with a huge 7'4" wingspan, but he also almost weighs 270 pounds, so he holds his position in the post very well. As I said, he's a pretty good athlete, and if he can get his body fat content down to NBA standards while adding strength at the same time, he could turn out to be a very good NBA player. Its hard to find players his size, with some of the skills he possesses. If he works hard, and improves his overall skill set, he could have a nice NBA career. Here's a video.

bajaden · Oct 26, 2013

Arby's Roast Beef said:

Hammons first. Pretty much agree with your analysis. He's very raw on the offensive side of the ball, and his rebounding is just average for his size, probably comes out around 9 boards per 36. Not terrible, but nothing to write home about. His balywick is defense, where he needs to improve his footwork, but he has shown the ability to block shots. He's a guy that may be worth drafting if he stays in school for all four years. He has the size and the athleticism to live in the post. He's fallen in love with his jumpshot a little too much. He is 7 foot with good length, so he'll attract attention, but the NBA graveyard is scattered with 7 footers that didn't put in the work.

Andre Hollins is another one of my favorites. So goes Andre may go Minnesota. I see him as more of a combo guard than a pure PG. The dude can shoot the rock and is deadly from downtown. I would have to believe that something like 80% of all his shots are from the perimeter. He shoots over 40% from the three. He reminds me a little bit of C.J. McCullum, on the offensive side, except that McCullum is far superior at scoring at the basket, and he a couple of inches taller. I don't think he's a poor defender. I'd call him average. He's not an elite athlete with great lateral quickness, but he does put in the effort. Where I think he suffers on defense is that at times he loses focus, and loses his man. I guess what I'm trying to say is that he has the potential to be a better defender than he currently is.

Amir Williams will get more time now that Sullinger and company are gone. He should be the heir apparent to the center position at Ohio St. I'm not sure what he'll be once in the NBA, if he does make it to the NBA. He's still very raw offensively and I'm being kind. He just doesn't seem to have any touch around the basket. You don't want him putting the ball on the floor. He's a decent athlete with good defensive instincts. I've never figured out why someone will be so effective and coordinated on defense, and look like he has two left feet on offense. I suspect it because one is reactionary, and the other requires thought and then action. I agree with you that if he's to make it in the NBA, it will be because of his defense. But he has to figure out how to not be a liability on offense. Otherwise, he may have a nice career in the D-League, or China.

Arby's Roast Beef · Oct 27, 2013

Branden Dawson
--Decent scorer with a power forward game in a small forward's body, both in terms of shooting ability and handles. Unselfish, but also very turnover prone.
--Zero offensive polish and elusiveness. No range. Has no mid-range jumper (33% on 2's past two seasons, 54.5% free throw shooting). Plays mostly at the rim, and pretty good finisher who goes after offensive boards for size, but really struggles to draw fouls given the frequency of attempts at rim.
--Excellent defender. Makes a ton of defensive plays, notable with steals but also blocks for size. Good rebounder even as an undersized power forward. Might need to put on weight for this role if he is to make it.

Briante Weber
--Caretaker point guard who lacks the usage rate, ability to use the entire floor, and scoring ability to be a starting PG in the NBA.
--Slashing oriented but this season has developed a very reliable pull-up mid ranger (43%) which jibes with good free throw percentages. Lacks range.
--Defensive monster. Insane length racks up tons of steals and defensive plays, and might be one of the best rebounders at the PG position in the NBA. Even without the steals has a enormous defensive impact. Lacks weight.

Brice Johnson
--High-usage scoring tweener forward who aggressively sets himself up in positions to score. Excellent finisher off cuts to the rim, but absolutely atrocious use of the offensive floor. No ability to draw fouls especially given frequency of at-rim attacks. Won't pass when he touches the ball.
--Has little range, but still takes two-thirds of his shots as spot-up mid-range jumpers with poor results (33%), corroborated by very poor free throw shooting.
--Excellent defender, with good build even for a NBA power forward. Near elite rebounder for size. Very good defensive playmaker who gets steals and blocks. Extremely underweight, but has a great all-around athletic base and mentality to be a defensive stopper in the NBA. Kind of reminds of Jeremy Evans, in that he has a PF game and SF weight, and has little skills beyond set-up finishing, but has massive defensive potential.

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