Yeah, but barely on the cusp and usually first round fodder in years that mimic what things are starting to look like in the West. And this is a new era of the play in. It's a different game now which plays into that stat so it's actually somewhat false in historical context. There is also what appears to be a really solid upper crust forming. I don't think Monte is wanting his team to be 6-8 in the deck. Nobody really does. However, sitting or making the wrong move can keep your team there. It happens all the time.
I agree that a solid upper crust is forming, but I am not sure it is so dire that our ceiling is setting in at the 6-8 range.
Denver and OKC are clearly the top dogs long term. Denver is built perfectly, and OKC has so many assets to add to an already good team. But even these two teams aren't impervious to a step back. Denver could step back if something happens to Joker and OKC could step back if they don't add some bulk, or if they take their assets and swing for the fences in a way that messes up their chemistry. Still these seem like the top 2.
I'm definitely not sold on Minnesota being upper crust. The West is filled with lots of teams who pop up one year and down the next. There is zero evidence that a team can with with Gobert in the playoffs, KAT appears unwilling or unable to be the star they need when it counts, and the entire team admits how reliant they are on a 36 year old point guard to provide on floor stability. I am not sure what assets they have to replace Conley long term, but he is SO important to what they do. Ant will continue to grow, but I am not sure this team should be written in pen into the upper tier.
Dallas looks really good, but Luka hasn't always been the consistent MVP level force they need. If this is year 1 of him playing consistently like an MVP, then look out. If this was an MVP type season followed by a more indifferent one (as he has done in the past), then they could slide. Also, Kyrie is extremely mercurial, and also pushing closer to mid-30s. PJ and Gafford were great additions, but still not a ton of depth. If Luka and Kyrie keep playing like they are now this is a very good team, but history has told us that is a mighty big "if."
I view New Orleans and Memphis similar to the Kings. Teams that have done good things at times, but also not established themselves consistently. These seem like the Western Conference middle class, with one solid move possibly vaulting them up higher, or (as these teams have all seen) inaction, wrong moves, or injuries leading to a setback.
The Lakers, Clippers, Suns, and Warriors are all in similar boats to me. Old teams, aging stars trying to hold on to the league, not many options for the teams to get better, and committed to playing out the hand they have because it is the best one available. I know the Clippers were slightly better than that, but if PG13 leaves they are in real trouble. These teams combined to win 3 playoff games this year in a season where Lebron, AD, Steph, KD, Booker, and PG13 all played most of their games. These are not long term threats, as constructed.
Houston, San Antonio, and Utah all have promising young rosters, but none of them appear to be passing the Kings this coming year. If anything, these teams might be cycling out some of the older Pacific division teams.
Portland is way below.
So the way I see it:
Upper Tier
Denver
OKC
Next Tier (I think right now these teams are probably in two sub tiers, but with plenty of movement possible within this group)
Dallas
Minnesota
--------
New Orleans
Sacramento
Memphis
Hanging on Tier
Phoenix
LAL
LAC
Golden State
Risers
Houston
Utah
San Antonio
Rebuilding
Portland
)
