Why the Kings won't win...

[Showtime]

...with this offense.

First of all, this isn't just a gut reaction to tonight's loss. Tonight's game is part of something that I've noticed, and commented on, with several games throughout the season. This thread are my thoughts on the offense, and why the team won't ever be able to win while playing like this.

When shots are falling, it can make any team look good. We saw it tonight, and we saw it in the game against the Denver Nuggets. In the first half, not only were the jumpers falling, but the spacing, ball movement, and off ball movement was great, and lead to easy buckets. The team was clicking, and they remained competitive. Their bench players came in and contributed, and that was key.

However, in the second half, the jumpers weren't falling. The defense tightened up, and they weren't getting open looks from the defensive lapses in their rotations. This is when it's so key in what offense the team runs.

Check out the shot chart throughout the game: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=290313023

With this offense, everything is based off the high screen/roll. The frontline guys come out all the way to the top of the key to set the picks, which leaves either Spencer or Thompson outside while Martin or Jackson look to make something happen. The vast majority of the time, the team settles for a long range jumpshot. We saw this time and time again in the second half. This is where a post presence is so valuable.

A post player who can exploit his man demands a double team, which automatically frees up a player somewhere on the court. It's also not that difficult to get a guy in position for the post-up. Spencer Hawes was the perfect guy to use on Varejao. In fact, on one play, he posted him up and hit a hook in the lane, which prompted Jerry to comment that the team should look for him more on the block. Spencer has improved his passing, and he can therefore play a Tim Duncan type role in the offense. Since he has offensive skill, and passing skills, he can open up opportunities when the outside jumpers aren't falling, and the team can't get to the basket.

The offense they run is fine and dandy when the jumpers are falling, and the defense is lacking. But when the game slows down, and becomes a grind, you NEED a post player who can open up opportunities either by getting a high percentage shot, or drawing the double to free up guys.

I have posted previously on Kenny's lack of attention in the offense for the post players, and the team will continue to lose close games as long as they neglect the talent they have down low. Now, some may say Spencer can't be that guy yet. I feel this is a chicken-egg argument. If you don't go to him, and settle for jumpers all game, then he CAN'T prove he can be that guy, because he isn't getting touches on the block.

Hawes has had a nice stretch, and the team seemed to treat him like Chris Mihm instead of a developing lottery pick. Hawes isn't prime Shaq, but it wouldn't matter if he was, because the Kings aren't looking for a post player. They could have all the talent down low in the world, including Blake Griffin, but if they don't use it correctly, they won't ever win.

/rant

 

[upinsmoke]

Dont worry this coach wont be here next season.

 

[Showtime]

Dont worry this coach wont be here next season.

It could be worse. If Avery Johnson is on the bench next season, then I will no longer support this organization until they have new owners.

 

[VF21]

I still think Brian Shaw just might have the inside track.

...

I agree with your assessment, btw, but just don't think it will be relevant next season.

 

[Bricklayer]

It could be worse. If Avery Johnson is on the bench next season, then I will no longer support this organization until they have new owners.

Indeed, you know only an NBA Finals coach and COY and all that.

Whatever the questions about him, you couldn't call that hire anything but legit.

 

[Showtime]

Indeed, you know only an NBA Finals coach and COY and all that.

Whatever the questions about him, you couldn't call that hire anything but legit.

Yes, I could. I have already been over my feelings of him as a coach in depth in another thread. If he was that good, then two things would have happened:

1. the team wouldn't have crashed and burned as quickly as it did

2. he would still be coaching the team

That's all I'm going to get into with regards to that discussion in this thread.

And as far as COY awards, Sam Mitchell has more than Jerry Sloan.

 

[Oprostaj]

Indeed, you know only an NBA Finals coach and COY and all that.

Whatever the questions about him, you couldn't call that hire anything but legit.

He had the inside track on that team through his buddy buddy relationship with the players and organization. Nelson basically admitted his last season there Avery ran practices and even was the main voice during games. He was spoonfed the success he achieved. As soon as the honeymoon was over they realized the coach was a byproduct of the team, and not the other way around. Can't have that. Unless you're the Clips. Then you just don't give a ****.

Word is that his style rubs the players the wrong way. Just a bunch of different sources I've read over the years, nothing concrete. If it's true should be staying away from him - we need team unity and cohesiveness (is that even a word?!) because God knows we're not winning with talent.

About the offense - this team has no definable identity. They've switched 4 coaches in 6 years. Their best player is a guy that is one dimensional, and is not even excelling at that at this point, and their center likes to shoot 3s more than he likes to post up. They're young and undisciplined. Don't get angry, just let the trainwreck finish its demise, and we build from the wreckage.

 

[Merdiesel]

It could be worse. If Avery Johnson is on the bench next season, then I will no longer support this organization until they have new owners.

Really??

I HOPE we bring in a guy like Avery Johnson. He's a true leader.

 

[Showtime]

Really??

I HOPE we bring in a guy like Avery Johnson. He's a true leader.

http://www.kingsfans.com/forums/showpost.php?p=611259&postcount=6

 

[HighTopKicks]

He had the inside track on that team through his buddy buddy relationship with the players and organization. Nelson basically admitted his last season there Avery ran practices and even was the main voice during games. He was spoonfed the success he achieved. As soon as the honeymoon was over they realized the coach was a byproduct of the team, and not the other way around. Can't have that. Unless you're the Clips. Then you just don't give a ****.

Word is that his style rubs the players the wrong way. Just a bunch of different sources I've read over the years, nothing concrete. If it's true should be staying away from him - we need team unity and cohesiveness (is that even a word?!) because God knows we're not winning with talent.

About the offense - this team has no definable identity. They've switched 4 coaches in 6 years. Their best player is a guy that is one dimensional, and is not even excelling at that at this point, and their center likes to shoot 3s more than he likes to post up. They're young and undisciplined. Don't get angry, just let the trainwreck finish its demise, and we build from the wreckage.

I have to disagree with your statement about Hawes not liking to post up. Every possession, every one, Hawes races down the court and fights for position in the blocks, and not one player very gets him the ball. Eventually, the guards & wings set up around the arc, and he has to come out to set a screen so one of them can take a jump shot. There's no attempt at inside out, or pick & roll, or drive to the rim. That's why every game, the box scores show us getting out scored in the paint.

Hawes & JT had a total of one shots at all in the 4th quarter.

 

[rainmaker]

I have to disagree with your statement about Hawes not liking to post up. Every possession, every one, Hawes races down the court and fights for position in the blocks, and not one player very gets him the ball. Eventually, the guards & wings set up around the arc, and he has to come out to set a screen so one of them can take a jump shot. There's no attempt at inside out, or pick & roll, or drive to the rim. That's why every game, the box scores show us getting out scored in the paint.

Hawes & JT had a total of one shots at all in the 4th quarter.

I have noticed that to. Hawes does post up and look for the ball, but no one throws him the ball. I wish Hawes was more aggresive attacking the rim when he gets the ball, but he needs more opportunities in the post.

 

[upinsmoke]

Flip saunders please.

 

[Oprostaj]

I have noticed that to. Hawes does post up and look for the ball, but no one throws him the ball. I wish Hawes was more aggresive attacking the rim when he gets the ball, but he needs more opportunities in the post.

He'll get them, he just has to become a consistent post threat and get a PG that recognizes the situation. The hardest thing for a big man is when he doesn't get the ball when he has position. I don't blame him for going out and shooting threes.

 

[Kingster]

...with this offense.

First of all, this isn't just a gut reaction to tonight's loss. Tonight's game is part of something that I've noticed, and commented on, with several games throughout the season. This thread are my thoughts on the offense, and why the team won't ever be able to win while playing like this.

When shots are falling, it can make any team look good. We saw it tonight, and we saw it in the game against the Denver Nuggets. In the first half, not only were the jumpers falling, but the spacing, ball movement, and off ball movement was great, and lead to easy buckets. The team was clicking, and they remained competitive. Their bench players came in and contributed, and that was key.

However, in the second half, the jumpers weren't falling. The defense tightened up, and they weren't getting open looks from the defensive lapses in their rotations. This is when it's so key in what offense the team runs.

Check out the shot chart throughout the game: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=290313023

With this offense, everything is based off the high screen/roll. The frontline guys come out all the way to the top of the key to set the picks, which leaves either Spencer or Thompson outside while Martin or Jackson look to make something happen. The vast majority of the time, the team settles for a long range jumpshot. We saw this time and time again in the second half. This is where a post presence is so valuable.

A post player who can exploit his man demands a double team, which automatically frees up a player somewhere on the court. It's also not that difficult to get a guy in position for the post-up. Spencer Hawes was the perfect guy to use on Varejao. In fact, on one play, he posted him up and hit a hook in the lane, which prompted Jerry to comment that the team should look for him more on the block. Spencer has improved his passing, and he can therefore play a Tim Duncan type role in the offense. Since he has offensive skill, and passing skills, he can open up opportunities when the outside jumpers aren't falling, and the team can't get to the basket.

The offense they run is fine and dandy when the jumpers are falling, and the defense is lacking. But when the game slows down, and becomes a grind, you NEED a post player who can open up opportunities either by getting a high percentage shot, or drawing the double to free up guys.

I have posted previously on Kenny's lack of attention in the offense for the post players, and the team will continue to lose close games as long as they neglect the talent they have down low. Now, some may say Spencer can't be that guy yet. I feel this is a chicken-egg argument. If you don't go to him, and settle for jumpers all game, then he CAN'T prove he can be that guy, because he isn't getting touches on the block.

Hawes has had a nice stretch, and the team seemed to treat him like Chris Mihm instead of a developing lottery pick. Hawes isn't prime Shaq, but it wouldn't matter if he was, because the Kings aren't looking for a post player. They could have all the talent down low in the world, including Blake Griffin, but if they don't use it correctly, they won't ever win.

/rant

I think you're so right!!! I'd much prefer to get the ball to Hawes in the post rather than to Martin 35 feet from the basket where he does his LaBron wannabe "show". What's even more frustrating is that Hawes matches up well against the Cleveland bigs. It's not as if they overpower him or anything. The Kings need to get him the freaking ball in the post and let him do his thing. And that doesn't mean he has to shoot or pass for a layup assist every time. I'd like to see where they pass into him, then he passes out (if no opportunity occurs), then they pass into him again. This team has the patience of an 8 year old. What's going on now is that Martin is deemed "the star" (How there can even be a "star" on the worst team in the league I'll never know). Therefore, Martin, is "supposed" to do what stars do: go one-on-one and save the day (yay Martin!). But Martin is not good dribbling the ball or setting up an offense, despite what Martin might think. Unfortunately, the coaching staff has neither the cajones or the brains to confine Martin to what he does best - work off the ball, catch, and shoot or go with it.

With Hawes and Thompson, this team has great potential. To realize it, both players have to get stronger, and in the case of Thompson, more skilled in the post, especially by developing that left hand. Both are excellent passers. If they work hard over the next couple of years to be better inside players, and they get a coach who has a clue, this could be a very good team in the future.

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

I hope Shaw has the inside track...I liked the idea of him being here when we interviewed him, along with Robert Horry as his assistant(gotta love the irony of THAT)...but then the Maloof family was wowed by the great job Kinko's did with all that powerpoint and printouts and hired Muss.

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

Flip saunders please.

Oh HELL no!

 

[Bricklayer]

Oh HELL no!

Sigh.

Guys...coaches like Avery Johnson and Flip Saunders are so overqualified and have accomplished so much more than our current crew that any objections to them are just silly. If this were 2002 and we were looking for a coach to get us over the final hump, then yes, all the warts, every little concern becomes critical. But when you are looking at a situation where the next ocach just has to get us back to respectability over the next few years, then back to the playoffs, then back into the hunt -- guys liek Avery and Flip have done that and more. And yes they have warts. And yes they have questions. But they are so far above what we have at this moment that all those questions get swept aside as irrelevant for the moment.

 

[Warhawk]

Sigh.

Guys...coaches like Avery Johnson and Flip Saunders are so overqualified and have accomplished so much more than our current crew that any objections to them are just silly. If this were 2002 and we were looking for a coach to get us over the final hump, then yes, all the warts, every little concern becomes critical. But when you are looking at a situation where the next ocach just has to get us back to respectability over the next few years, then back to the playoffs, then back into the hunt -- guys liek Avery and Flip have done that and more. And yes they have warts. And yes they have questions. But they are so far above what we have at this moment that all those questions get swept aside as irrelevant for the moment.

Agreed 100%.

We need a coach that has proven they can win games. These guys should be on the short list.

 

[Showtime]

Guys...coaches like Avery Johnson and Flip Saunders are so overqualified and have accomplished so much more than our current crew that any objections to them are just silly.

I disagree.

If this were 2002 and we were looking for a coach to get us over the final hump, then yes, all the warts, every little concern becomes critical. But when you are looking at a situation where the next ocach just has to get us back to respectability over the next few years, then back to the playoffs, then back into the hunt -- guys liek Avery and Flip have done that and more.

First of all, the focus isn't just putting a respectable product on the court. It's about winning a championship. Just being a playoff team isn't the end game here. Second, the way that happens at this time is the development of the youth and prospects that the team has, and the style that is needed to maximize talent. So in that respect, considering the type of coach IS important. You can't just have the attitude that anything is better, so you accept anything.

And yes they have warts. And yes they have questions. But they are so far above what we have at this moment that all those questions get swept aside as irrelevant for the moment.

Nelly, as far as accomplishments, is head and shoulders above Kenny. Does that mean if he was available, he would be a great fit for this team? Nelly has killed teams and alienated talent and is killing the warriors right now. Just because a resume is better than Kenny right now doesn't mean it will get the team where it needs to be, and what we all want them to be.

 

[Warhawk]

First of all, the focus isn't just putting a respectable product on the court. It's about winning a championship. Just being a playoff team isn't the end game here. Second, the way that happens at this time is the development of the youth and prospects that the team has, and the style that is needed to maximize talent. So in that respect, considering the type of coach IS important. You can't just have the attitude that anything is better, so you accept anything.

You have to get better sometime, and I am tired of going through the Musses and Reggies. I want a coach who has proven he can win games starting next year. The last couple years we were not going anywhere, so it really didn't matter (I think next year would be a good time to start working back to respectability). No coach who has won a championship is coming here, so you get the next best thing to get your team competitive. Then you start looking for the coach that can get you over the hump.

 

[VF21]

I have to agree, at least somewhat, with showtime. I don't want Flip Saunders and I most definitely do not want Avery Johnson. In the case of the former it's simply a lack of confidence in his ability to really gel with his team. In the case of Johnson, I think he's got control issues and other related problems. I would truly like to see us bring in someone like Brian Shaw, for whom I've got a lot of respect. He may not be a proven winner in the NBA yet, but he's certainly got the credentials to become one.

If we did bring in Johnson or Saunders, i doubt if they'd be successful in the long run. Shaw, on the other hand, could easily be here for the rebuild and the return to elite status.

 

[Bricklayer]

I disagree.



First of all, the focus isn't just putting a respectable product on the court. It's about winning a championship. Just being a playoff team isn't the end game here. Second, the way that happens at this time is the development of the youth and prospects that the team has, and the style that is needed to maximize talent. So in that respect, considering the type of coach IS important. You can't just have the attitude that anything is better, so you accept anything.



Nelly, as far as accomplishments, is head and shoulders above Kenny. Does that mean if he was available, he would be a great fit for this team? Nelly has killed teams and alienated talent and is killing the warriors right now. Just because a resume is better than Kenny right now doesn't mean it will get the team where it needs to be, and what we all want them to be.

This is not about winning a championship -- not now, not next year, not two years from now. It is about getting in position to win one, which those guys have done, in spades. There is no rule that says they have to be the guy 5 years from now when we raise some hypothetical trophy.

Nellie is a red herring as he runs a junkball system which obviously messes up franchises with his personnel requirements and bizarre playing time distributions. The worst that can be said about Avery is that his players might hate him in a few years and you have to can him. That's fine. If we are a 45 win team by the time he is canned, if we make the right hire at that time we can be right there. The worst that can be said about Flip is that maybe he doesn't get the most out of elite talent. I'll worry about that if we ever get elite talent. In the meantime if he can get us back to 50 win type status, he will have done his job. If he can't take us further, fine, buh bye. Either way we've got years of development to go before these things become a concern.

 

[Showtime]

You have to get better sometime, and I am tired of going through the Musses and Reggies. I want a coach who has proven he can win games starting next year. The last couple years we were not going anywhere, so it really didn't matter (I think next year would be a good time to start working back to respectability). No coach who has won a championship is coming here, so you get the next best thing to get your team competitive. Then you start looking for the coach that can get you over the hump.

I agree, but acting like Avery and Flip are the very best guys isn't accurate. There ARE great coaches out there and there are a lot of quality, proven coaches who will be looking for employment next season. I'm not saying go get another Theus or Muss, but I'm also not saying go and get whomever just because they have a better resume than Kenny.

 

[Bricklayer]

I have to agree, at least somewhat, with showtime. I don't want Flip Saunders and I most definitely do not want Avery Johnson. In the case of the former it's simply a lack of confidence in his ability to really gel with his team. In the case of Johnson, I think he's got control issues and other related problems. I would truly like to see us bring in someone like Brian Shaw, for whom I've got a lot of respect. He may not be a proven winner in the NBA yet, but he's certainly got the credentials to become one.

If we did bring in Johnson or Saunders, i doubt if they'd be successful in the long run. Shaw, on the other hand, could easily be here for the rebuild and the return to elite status.

I like Brain Shaw. Thought we should have hired him instead of Reggie. But to somehow try to claim that hiring an assistant coach with zero games of NBA head coaching experience is less risky, or more of a sure route back to the top than hiring a coach who's already been to the top...that just doesn't compute. Flip Saunders has made the playoffs in 11 of the 13 years he has coached. He's coached 7 50 win teams (over half the years he's coached). Appeared in 4 Conference Finals. Its the Adelman situation all over again.

 

[Showtime]

This is not about winning a championship -- not now, not next year, not two years from now. It is about getting in position to win one, which those guys have done, in spades. There is no rule that says they have to be the guy 5 years from now when we raise some hypothetical trophy.

This is about a championship. I'm not saying go get a coach that will do that in the next 3 years, and I understand it's a process. What my point was is that the goal of the team, the end-game, is not just playoffs. Look at what Portland did. They got a quality GM and decent coach, built through the draft and trades, and progressed to the playoffs and are now working at getting to contending status.

For the Kings, I know they have to crawl before they can walk. They have to be a playoff team before they reach contending status. My point is that the goal shouldn't be just to get to the playoffs. That's just part of it.

Nellie is a red herring as he runs a junkball system which obviously messes up franchises with his personnel requirements and bizarre playing time distributions.

But he's a "proven" coach who has a better resume, which is apparently fine according to that logic because he's better than Kenny. The point was brought out that the team can't be choosy with their coaching as long as they get a better coach than Kenny. My response was that's not true, as not just any coach is fine just because he might have a better resume. Nelly was the example I used to make that point.

The worst that can be said about Avery is that his players might hate him in a few years and you have to can him. That's fine. If we are a 45 win team by the time he is canned, if we make the right hire at that time we can be right there.

That's your opinion. That's not a big downside to you. I disagree.

The worst that can be said about Flip is that maybe he doesn't get the most out of elite talent. I'll worry about that if we ever get elite talent. In the meantime if he can get us back to 50 win type status, he will have done his job. If he can't take us further, fine, buh bye. Either way we've got years of development to go before these things become a concern.

I disagree because there ARE issues that concern this team in the rebuilding process, namely, how the prospects are developed and the system that is used. Again, you just want to get to the playoffs the next few years, and then go from there. But when you are a team with multiple lottery picks and a lot of young prospects, this time is very important to how they develop and how they are used during the process of trying to become a playoff team. That's a huge issue. And this point isn't anti-Flip, it's just simply making the point that the team must consider the coach seriously, and not just have the "anything is better" approach.

 

[kingsnation]

From my viewpoint, I really do not want another "experiment." Muss, Theus.. I want a Head Coach who has experience and not just that but WINNING experience.

The FO needs to cultivate a winning environment around these parts again, and the quickest way to do that is to hire a coach who KNOWS how to win and has done so in the past.

 

[Oprostaj]

You have to get better sometime, and I am tired of going through the Musses and Reggies. I want a coach who has proven he can win games starting next year. The last couple years we were not going anywhere, so it really didn't matter (I think next year would be a good time to start working back to respectability). No coach who has won a championship is coming here, so you get the next best thing to get your team competitive. Then you start looking for the coach that can get you over the hump.

That way of thinking will murder us. You never know who will become a good coach. Busts happen all the time, and no name nobodies rise and become great over time. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, could achieve anything with this roster. And guess what? It won't be much better next year. You want immediate respectability and a quick turnaround? Look elsewhere. We have neither the players to swing a quick deal, nor the testicular fortitude in the front office to admit they've ****ed this situation since the Webb era imploded like his knee. The economic situation and our market add to the issue. The carrousel of coaches isn't helping either. What do you know? Constant turnaround of players and a front office that truly had no idea that wasting money on mediocre players does not equal a good product set up back, and switching a coach again does you no good unless you commit to a rebuild. This year was stage one. I won't trust them until they commit to a defensive philosophy and an actual PG.

On the coach comment... Showtime is right on the money. Brick is awesome, and I would have his kids (I'm a guy, so that shows you my respect and commitment, if not insanity)but just because a guy won in one situation, does not mean he would be good in another. Look at Carlisle. The Mavs team is not a good fit for him, and they are struggling, with the only reason they are still in the hunt (barely) is because of the sheer talent of players and the fact the West is not really a powerhouse as it was last year. Flip took quite possibly the most talented TEAM to multiple ECF when they were all in their prime. Hooray. Nellie is destroying a team that could have been the Suns 2.0. I don't know, I just figure for OUR situation, a coach will only help if he understands that no, we will not be competitive, and needs to make us a cohesive and defensive minded unit. We don't have great one on one talent players that elevate a mediocre team into a decent one (think Atlanta) or a superstar that creates a crappy young team into a passable one (Miami) I think if we're still thinking being competitive in the short term and hiring a great proven coach, you are setting him, and us, up for failure.

 

[VF21]

I like Brain Shaw. Thought we should have hired him instead of Reggie. But to somehow try to claim that hiring an assistant coach with zero games of NBA head coaching experience is less risky, or more of a sure route back to the top than hiring a coach who's already been to the top...that just doesn't compute. Flip Saunders has made the playoffs in 11 of the 13 years he has coached. He's coached 7 50 win teams (over half the years he's coached). Appeared in 4 Conference Finals. Its the Adelman situation all over again.

All the great coaches started somewhere. I think Shaw has the c.v. to put him in the category of high potential for success.

So, in what should surprise absolutely no one , I guess we'll agree to disagree again. My point is that I'm willing to gamble on someone like Shaw and look to them to be with us for the long run, much like a Pop or a Sloan or an Adelman or (pipe dream) even a Phil Jackson. I do not want us to bring someone like Saunders or Johnson, just to have them fail. And I'm about 80% they would fail. They aren't cream of the crop coaches. They may be better than some of the others on the unemployment pile at the moment, but they just don't give me a warm fuzzy feeling.

 

[Oprostaj]

Great pont VF. When Sloan started coaching he lost something like 9 in a row and thought he was going to get canned. They stuck with him because they saw he was a great guy who cared about the players as much as he did about winning. That's who I want. I don't even care if we're the worst team in the leauge if we show improvement and a team concept. I don't care about rookie coaches, I care about good coaches. The two are not necesarily related.

 

[Andre87]

Saunders can be a good coach for us meaning he can actually build a team out of all this that will be a po team in future. But if we ever want to be a championship contender ever again Maloofs better bring in someone else in future 'cause Flip has proved to be a Flop so many times in playoffs that it's not even funny.
How about JVG though? He's been out of work for quite a while now...