I would agree with this.
I like Middleton but (1) he's about to get a monster deal and (2) he's a RFA so the Bucks will likely match. Now whether that's smart with Parker and Giannis I don't know but I'm guessing they'll try to play all three next season at SG, SF and PF.
Middleton is far younger and shows more potential but Matthews is a better defender, better as a catch and shoot wing (which the Kings very much need) and is 28 and coming off a scary injury which means his value might be low enough to where the Kings can successfully go after him.
Collison
Matthews
Gay
Cauley-Stein
Cousins
is a nice starting five. Obviously JT will likely start at PF to begin the season and possibly McLemore as Matthews rounds back into playing shape after his rehab but by the end of the season I'd expect to see that lineup.
Thompson and McLemore off the bench aren't bad. Miller and Casspi (if resigned) are nice pieces and I think you have to explore moving Stauskas for additional bench help. Anything Landry, McCallum or Moreland provide (beyond injury protection) is pretty much a bonus.
If relatively healthy that squad might be a 7th or 8th seed, especially if LMA does leave Portland. And next offseason when the salary cap explodes the Kings can sign additional roleplayers to fill out the roster and/or a PG good enough to push Collison to a backup role.
Agreed, I do like the look of that line up and it forms a solid foundation going forwards. If those five guys gel we will have a talented starting line up. The main thing that line up will need is for Cousins to continue improving and further establish himself as arguably the most dominant center in the league. If he does that, then with that supporting four we should have a decent ceiling for this team. Plus, if the team can acquire any further upgrades in free agency next off season [eg. replacing Collison with a better facilitator, or an upgrade at PF letting Cauley-Stein be our impact guy off the bench], then the ceiling continues to rise.
In regards to the 2015-16 season. I think we could see a few teams in flux if their off seasons don't go as planned:
1. Portland: as you rightly say LMA could leave, and if Matthews goes as well, that leaves them needing to retool and build around Lillard. I don't doubt Lillard's ability as one of the star PGs in the league, but the loss of LMA and Matthews could be too much to make them a shoe-in for the play offs.
2. Memphis: I feel Gasol will re-sign with them, but if he did leave for a big market team like the Lakers or Knicks, how much would losing him hurt the Grizzlies? Top it off if Jeff Green opts out and signs elsewhere, then that leaves them with Randolph, Conley, Lee, and Allen as their remaining starting calibre players. Would that quartet, pending any additions, be enough to get them back into the play offs?
3. Dallas: This team could look very different. Next season they only have Parsons and Nowitzki from their starting line up guaranteed to be back. Monta Ellis has a player option which he is likely to opt out of; Chandler is out of contract; and Rondo isn't going to be back. Another player likely to opt out is Aminu, and that leaves them with Devin Harris, Raymond Felton [player option - apparently opted in], Bernard James [qualifying offer], Gal Mekel, and Dwight Powell [team option] as the other names on their roster. Granted this means they will have a lot of cap space to spend, but in recent seasons big names have shunned them. And with Nowitzki looking mortal, their window may have closed, unless of course they land a big name free agent or two.
4. Pelicans: I'm not sure I see them missing out on the play offs as long as Davis stays healthy, and the same goes for Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, and Ryan Anderson. Granted Eric Gordon has a player option, and Omer Asik is a free agent, but if those two leave they will have cap space to work with and they are an attractive place to go. I can see big name free agents being tempted at pairing themselves with a star like Anthony Davis. But if Gordon and Asik leave, and their main players struggle to stay on the court, then they could miss out.
Granted I don't expect all of these teams to struggle this off season, but we'll need two of them take a significant enough hit to make the 7th or 8th seed a possibility. Why? Because last season OKC managed 45 wins despite Westbrook (15), Durant (55), and Ibaka (18) missing significant time. They are a title contender when those three guys are healthy and on the court together. As long as they stay healthy they should make the play offs next season at the expense of one of the above teams, and it wouldn't surprise me if they are a top four seed. That means for us to make the play offs we are going to need to hit a home run in the draft and free agency and take a
huge jump forwards to become a 45+ win team to even be in with a chance to make it next season. That's a lot to ask. For me, we are more likely to make to be .500 and finish 9th or 10th, than we are to push our way into the play offs
unless two of the above teams really struggle this off season and lose key players causing them to be around the .500 mark or worse [eg. 2012-13 Mavericks finished 41-41 after blowing up their title winning team, and failing to land big name free agents], while we take a
huge jump forwards and take advantage. I'd love for the latter to happen, but right now, I'm not convinced we will be a play off team next season.
