I'd rather tier than go straight with numbers. Right now I'm thinking something like:
Tier ?? (They would seem to be top-ten, but I can't evaluate them)
Doncic
Porter
Tier 1
Ayton
Bagley
Jackson
Tier 2
Bamba
Bridges (Miles)
Tier 3
Bridges (Mikal)
Sexton
Young
Might be Tier 3
Carter
Knox
This is the ranking I come closest to agreeing with. I've got Doncic in Tier 1 though and in a close race with Ayton for first overall most likely. I wish it were easier to watch his games, but I've seen enough that I'm reasonably comfortable projecting him as a top of the draft guy. I agree that Bagley and Jackson are right up there with those two in terms of overall potential -- a couple more question marks but I like betting on talent and these guys look pretty special. Bagley is just a born scorer and rebounder. The jumper could be better, I'm not sure what his best position will be but he's got skills every team needs which never go out of fashion. And Jackson is that swiss army knife defender that could single-handily transform a zone defense with his physical gifts and situational awareness.
I don't know where to put Porter right now. I think he's either Tier 1 or Tier 2 because I could see him being the best player in the draft eventually or I could see him settling in as a solid second option and maybe 1 or 2 time All-Star as well. Or there's a small chance he continues to have injury issues that kill his career or maybe he doesn't live up to his high school projections and becomes a roleplayer. He's going to be the toughest guy to project. How a player looks in workouts is not a very good indicator of how they look in a game and all we have to go off with him is high school footage. I think risk factor will probably knock him down a few spots which means some team will either be really happy (Joel Embiid slipping to 3rd overall in 2014) or not so happy (Ben McLemore slipping to 7th in 2013) with their investment. He has the look of a can't fail prospect but nobody is 100% can't fail (as Portland fans know...)
For Tier 2... I really like Bamba once you get past the top 4 guys. He's not setting the college world on fire but the outline of a dominant defender and productive offensive player is there and everything his coaches say about him is very encouraging. He's also such a smart, articulate guy I have a hard time seeing him fail in the NBA. Hassan Whiteside without the knucklehead factor seems like a solid bet to me. A big part of the reason I ranked Myles Turner and Jaylen Brown higher than most is because I think those off-court intangibles matter and both guys have outpaced expectations so I feel pretty confident making the same prediction for Bamba.
I also really like Miles Bridges for reasons I can't exactly explain. He's a little undersized and he hasn't dramatically improved in any area this year (except Free Throw shooting which may or may not be significant) but he also hasn't gotten worse. The hit to rebounds and blocks is entirely attributable to the presence of Jaren Jackson Jr. in the lineup pushing him out to the perimeter more. There's a question of whether he's a true wing player or a tweener who's most likely a small ball 4. I just think he's a fierce competitor and unquestionably an NBA level athlete and I expect his abilities to play up a notch because of his aggressive mentality. He was my sleeper pick last year and he's done nothing this season to discourage that. I like him at Tier 2 with Bamba just above Mikal, Trae, and Collin.
Wendell Carter is pretty solidly in Tier 3 for me and might actually be Tier 2. Kevin Knox isn't on my radar yet. I've somehow managed to miss every Kentucky game so far this season.
so... roughly speaking I guess that would be:
Tier 1 (Very happy to be picking here!)
Doncic
Ayton
Jackson
Bagley
Tier 2 (Not sure I'm getting a franchise guy, but still happy)
Bamba
(Miles) Bridges
Porter?
Carter?
Tier 3 (At the very least, we're getting a solid starter)
(Mikal) Bridges
Sexton
Young
Tier ??
Knox
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