What has to happen to move forward next year


I wasn't able to find many super recent defensive highlights but watching this it looks like he'd give you at the very least what Harrison can give you on offense but I think the key is on defense, I think he would be an upgrade there in terms of being able to hold his own against wings.

Maybe he's the answer here.

And I'm thinking about it, yes he's 29, but if he fills a pressing need, there's no reason why you can't swap him out for someone else 3 years down the line when we should be really good and be able to attract good free agents.

So 29 I think he should be able to give a few more years of high level basketball.

Then sign Naz Reid in the offseason as well.

Sign Harry to a lesser deal in a different role or I guess just let him walk if he wants more money

Pay 23 mil to Grant and call it a day
No we don’t need selfish scoring players he’s not taking a backseat to Sabonis and Murray we have 4 scorers Fox, Sabonis, Murray, monk we don’t need anymore it’s not gonna help the team whatsoever
 
Scoring all depends on how aggressive he lets himself become. Maybe he comes out of his player shell when he isn’t a rookie. Rebounding is fine. He improved as the season went along, especially after a coach lecture. I was worried for a minute about that, but he showed he has what it takes to be a solid one.
I agree, year 2 is too soon for 20ppg game but I expect a big leap.
I think it'll just depend on whether we bring barnes back or who will be his replacement. If we bring back a lower usage guy I could see Murray scoring more.
 
Man, maybe you just do it.

We need to take a leap, and that should pay dividends in the future through being a really good team (better FA, more popularity/more revenue so like a short term long term play here)

If you cheap out and don't address a need, the team becomes not as good, and the consequences of that can be big in the future (less revenue, people wanting out, etc).

How much could Naz Reid want, 17 mil?

But also Portland sucks, maybe that could help us in this case, we could offer a role and being part of a winning culture, that could help us
I don't know about monte but there has been rumors in the past that he was interested in both kuzma and grant, but 30+ mil might be too much for my taste. I'd probably pass on it. Heck we don't even have 30+mil this year unless we trade Holmes and even then blazers could probably offer him more.
 
Lyles is an intriguing fit as our starting PF next year (with Barnes coming off the bench).

For starters, Lyles has a massive size advantage over Barnes:
  • 9.25" hand length (0.25" more than Barnes)
  • 10.25" hand width (1.75" more than Barnes)
  • 6'9" w/o shoes (2" more than Barnes)
  • 9'0" standing reach (6.5" more than Barnes)
  • 7'1.5" wingspan (2.25" more than Barnes)
  • 241.2 lbs (13.4 lbs more than Barnes)

I cited earlier that some of the improvement areas we need to focus on is adding another solid rebounder to the starting lineup (as Huerter, Murray, & Barnes are all below average to average rebounders) and we'd need a PF who can help us protect the rim a bit more than someone like Barnes (Murray is pretty good in this department for a SF already).
  • Lyles averages 8.7 REB per 36 min (Barnes averages 4.9 REB per 36 min)
  • Lyles averages 0.9 BLK per 36 min (Barnes averages 0.1 BLK per 36 min)

His size, rebounding, and rim protection seem to help address a lot of the issues we're all pointing out, but will the offense drop off a cliff if Lyles replaces Barnes in the starting lineup?
  • Barnes averages 16.6 PTS per 36 min on .632 TS% while Lyles averages 16.2 PTS per 36 min on .607 TS% (not a huge difference in volume and efficiency)
  • Barnes averages 4.8 3PA per 36 min on .374 3P% while Lyles averages 6.9 3PA per 36 min on .363 3P% (not a big difference in efficiency but Lyles takes almost 1.5X the amount of 3s per minute. I think spacing would at least be comparable)
  • Barnes shoots .395 from the 3PT Corner while Lyles shoots .435 from the 3PT Corner (with Huerter and Murray performing the majority of the DHOs at the top of the key, I think having a better 3PT Corner shooter in this position is important).
  • Barnes averages 1.7 AST per 36 min while Lyles averages 1.9 AST per 36 min (we shouldn't see a big breakdown in ball movement)
  • Barnes has a .171 USG% while Lyles has a .181 USG%

I think we'd all agree that Barnes is a better scorer, gets to the FT line a bit more, can iso a bit, etc. which I think would be pretty effective in our bench unit when we need some scoring help. Lyles' size, length, defense, rebounding, and shooting seems like a good/better fit in the starting lineup on paper. You also have the fact that at the start of next season, Lyles will be 27 and Barnes will be 31.
The Kings need to get MORE guard oriented when it comes to skill. Not less. Unless Brown decides he wants to start pounding teams, Murray/Lyles/Sabonis is about as un-modern and you can get.
 
Throw a big (not a max) number at Kuzma.
No thank you. His individual metrics rate way behind even Barnes. That would be a step back. He can create some things for himself but unless Kuz is getting the chunk of the offense he's got now, we already know what that looks like. He's somebody who at some point will be pushed back to the bench most likely as a "6th man". Not worth it.
 

I wasn't able to find many super recent defensive highlights but watching this it looks like he'd give you at the very least what Harrison can give you on offense but I think the key is on defense, I think he would be an upgrade there in terms of being able to hold his own against wings.

Maybe he's the answer here.

And I'm thinking about it, yes he's 29, but if he fills a pressing need, there's no reason why you can't swap him out for someone else 3 years down the line when we should be really good and be able to attract good free agents.

So 29 I think he should be able to give a few more years of high level basketball.

Then sign Naz Reid in the offseason as well.

Sign Harry to a lesser deal in a different role or I guess just let him walk if he wants more money

Pay 23 mil to Grant and call it a day
I think people really need to look at the ages of teams in the playoffs. 29 unless a player has injury concerns or something wrong is still young, lol. This idea that the Kings need to look at 5 years down the line or something is just plain wrong. You start making the strides now so when Fox and Domas are 30 or so you can either re-tool, or rebuild. You don't want to be the Blazers and just keep spinning. Commit and prepare for 2 pushes if need be.
 
Sorry to burst the bubble but he’s already sitting on $28 million/year from Portland:

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/01/jerami-grant-confirms-blazers-offered-four-year-extension.html#:~:text=Trail Blazers forward Jerami Grant,The Athletic (Twitter link).

edit: KF8 was faster! That’s what I get for looking for the link.
But the Blazers are possibly looking at that differently now. There's been some talk about them finally biting the rebuild bullet before it's too late. With the way Sharpe looked late the DUMBEST thing they could do is punt on that potential star and go for it now behind a 34 year old Dame. Not unless they can land Giannis or something crazy.
 
I would like to know Toronto's off season plans. OG would cost, but if there's a chance he'd be my best case acquisition.
Wish I was higher on Huerter. He seems like a great teamate, but I wouldn't be disappointed if he's part of a trade to improve.
Yeah, what they do will change the landscape for some team, hopefully a team like the Kings. Sounds like they might be ready to blow and sent out that Scottie is the only untouchable. The obvious issue is that prior to that the value they put on their assets was stupid level. They want a Mitchell package for OG which is over the top IMO. Now for Siakam? Do it all day.
 
But the Blazers are possibly looking at that differently now. There's been some talk about them finally biting the rebuild bullet before it's too late. With the way Sharpe looked late the DUMBEST thing they could do is punt on that potential star and go for it now behind a 34 year old Dame. Not unless they can land Giannis or something crazy.
my guess is it goes like this for the Blazers

1) they land Wemby, trade sharpe and picks for a third star and go for it this year

2) they don’t land Wemby and try to use the pick, Simons and future picks for a third star

3) if neither of the first two work they trade Dame at the deadline
 
No we don’t need selfish scoring players he’s not taking a backseat to Sabonis and Murray we have 4 scorers Fox, Sabonis, Murray, monk we don’t need anymore it’s not gonna help the team whatsoever
Actually, that's exactly what the Kings need as evidenced by how when Sabonis didn't go all "Shaq" people started to confuse that scoring need and lack team wise with an all star player being totally useless. The Kings need someone that can take the pressure off of Fox to score. In looking at the iso stats in post season play Fox was the only one that even registered a percentile. That's almost Jordan pre-Pippen stuff. Very unlikely that will take a team farther than the middle of the playoffs and could even set you back if teams upgrade over a summer.

The Kings need someone to reliably get buckets and this playoff preview showed exactly why. The playoffs are a different beast than the regular season. I think that the shooter teams having a chance thing of the last two seasons is already kind of dissipating. Physical style ball has kind of corrected the course. The Kings greatest net rating offense in history just struggled to get up to 12 out of 16. I've brought it up before, this is so similar to the millennium Kings it's eerie. That was a team that eventually had to adjust that offense into a more refined two man game and the trick wasn't adding more passing, it was adding more scoring mainly in the form of Mike Bibby.
 
my guess is it goes like this for the Blazers

1) they land Wemby, trade sharpe and picks for a third star and go for it this year

2) they don’t land Wemby and try to use the pick, Simons and future picks for a third star

3) if neither of the first two work they trade Dame at the deadline
Wow, if they landed Wembenyama and didn't figure well, we got a duo that will dominate the league potentially for the next decade and instead went for it, then that GM could end up the most infamous of all time, haha.
 
Seems like there aren't many better options out there. I wouldn't be opposed to bringing barnes back at 17.5mil or so a year. I mean you don't want to overpay guys like kuzma and Grant at 30-35mil per year. Safe to say we rather have Barnes at 17.5 (if he even accepts that) over paying 35mil a year for kuzma or grant?

Unless we make trades there aren't many other wings better than barnes on the free agent market this upcoming summer. I know he wasn't good during this playoff series but he hasn't been that bad through out his career.
 
Are you saying Sabonis doesn’t have guard skills?
No, he's the PG of the team. As a shooter he's not a guard obviously though. The Kings need at least a few players (preferably a really good one that can be a 2nd/3rd option IMO) around Fox and Domas that can create for themselves and according to the stats the 3-4 players who even registered were the ones that kind of decided the series by their play. Poor or otherwise. Davion, Monk, Huerter (very little iso play this year but did register), and Barnes. Barnes is actually the more prolific in getting both to the line and getting his own shot. He just rarely looks for it. Just ditching that for more system play is going to set the team back. This year was great and all but in the playoffs we saw the issues of having a team almost entirely dependent on 2 players to generate all the buckets.
 
That's a lot of eggs all in one basket. Also, any team that lands that kid and doesn't give him a few years to develop is doing everyone a disservice.
If he is the generational talent everyone thinks he is he should be able to come in as the third best player on a playoff team next year. If you have Dame’s prime for 4 more years you either need to capitalize on it now or trade him imo

if you are trading Sharpe and picks you are getting a special talent
 
Without a broken hand, bruised sternum, and possible concussion/eye damage/irritation from the elbow, maybe he'll return back to form next year? Just a thought.
I totally agree the guy was battling for the Kings with some serious injuries. He wasn’t/isn’t going to give up that easily and he’s such a team player. I bet after he has surgery which he’s needed damn near all season let it heal and I bet we will see Domas back to himself.
 
No, he's the PG of the team. As a shooter he's not a guard obviously though. The Kings need at least a few players (preferably a really good one that can be a 2nd/3rd option IMO) around Fox and Domas that can create for themselves and according to the stats the 3-4 players who even registered were the ones that kind of decided the series by their play. Poor or otherwise. Davion, Monk, Huerter (very little iso play this year but did register), and Barnes. Barnes is actually the more prolific in getting both to the line and getting his own shot. He just rarely looks for it. Just ditching that for more system play is going to set the team back. This year was great and all but in the playoffs we saw the issues of having a team almost entirely dependent on 2 players to generate all the buckets.
We’re in agreement that this team needs a 3rd star. I’ve already posted about it here:


I've been thinking about this a bit more and it's easy to get wrapped up in the immediate emotional reaction to being in the playoffs, winning playoff games, losing playoff games, etc., but I think we need to keep our eyes on the prize and play the long game.

This is the 1st time we've been to the playoffs in 16 seasons. At the start of next season, Fox will be 25, Mitchell will be 25, Huerter will be 25, Monk will be 25, Davis will be 26, Murray will be 23, Edwards will be 23, Lyles will be 27, & Sabonis will be 27. We still have a relatively young core who should be in playoffs in many of the upcoming years.

Having said that, I think many of us can recognize that this team would likely need a 3rd star if we really want to become a contender one day which would push Sabonis into a 3rd option/facilitator role (which I think would be his sweet spot). If we acknowledge that fact and acknowledge that's the long term goal to elevate this team, we probably should recognize that we shouldn't trade any of our assets for anything less than that type of player (or cap space to sign such a player).

Now if Murray continues to develop and looks like he will become that 3rd star, great! We can look at selling off some of our assets for better fitting, complementary upgrades around Fox, Murray, and Sabonis, but until we know Murray will be that type of player, I think we need to keep our assets close and stay patient. If Murray looks like he won't develop into a star player, then perhaps that's when you look to combine your assets (Murray, Mitchell, Picks, etc.) to bring that type of player in to hopefully elevate a Fox/Sabonis core to a contender.

Giving us more time to assess what we have with Murray seems crucial to the direction we take as a franchise. If Murray breakouts into a fringe star next season, maybe we open the door to trading our assets for better fitting, complementary upgrades around Fox, Murray, & Sabonis. If Murray doesn't take a huge leap but we see good progression from Murray next season, perhaps we remain patient and give Murray a 3rd season to see if he progresses again. If Murray essentially looks like the same player next season, perhaps we consider moving Murray, Mitchell, and/or assets to bring in a 3rd star. The other bonus of being patient 1 more season, is that our 2024 1st will hopefully convey to Atlanta (protected top 14) which frees up all of our future 1sts (making it much easier to put together an attractive offer for a star).

With that in mind, we have ~$22.0 mil in cap space this offseason with the following players under contract:

  • De'Aaron Fox
  • Davion Mitchell
  • Kevin Huerter
  • Malik Monk
  • Keegan Murray
  • Kessler Edwards
  • Domantas Sabonis
  • Richaun Holmes
  • 2023 SAC 1st

That cap space drops to ~$19.6 mil if we keep Lyles cap hold in place. I'm wondering if we just keep it simple and attempt to sign one of Cam Johnson, PJ Washington, or Grant Williams with that cap space. And if that doesn't work out, I'd likely just resign Barnes (who will be 31 at the start of next season). Then we'd use our exception on a backup C and call it an offseason. We'd have the following roster:

PG - Fox || Mitchell
SG - Huerter || Monk
SF - Murray || Edwards
PF - Johnson/Washington/Williams/Barnes || Lyles
C - Sabonis || FA C
Picks - #24 || #38 || #54

This essentially allows us to keep the same team/core while potentially replacing Barnes with a younger forward (who might be a more attractive asset if we do end up needing/wanting to trade for a 3rd star vs. the 31 year old Barnes). We'd also hopefully have an upgrade at backup C and have some young players via our draft picks that maybe surprise us.

After the 2023-24 season, you then go into the offseason (assuming our 2024 1st conveyed to Atlanta), and we'd have the following young assets to use in a trade (if we're not confident in Murray's ability to become that 3rd star at that point in time):
  • Mitchell
  • Monk (would need to be resigned first)
  • Huerter
  • Murray
  • Edwards (would need to be resigned first)
  • Johnson/Washington/Williams (assuming we signed one of these guys and not the 31 year old Barnes)
  • #24 (from 2023 Draft)
  • #38 (from 2023 Draft)
  • #54 (from 2023 Draft)
  • 2025 SAC 1st
  • 2026 SAC 1st Pick Swap
  • 2027 SAC 1st
  • 2028 SAC 1st Pick Swap
  • 2029 SAC 1st
  • 2030 SAC 1st Pick Swap
  • 2031 SAC 1st

I wouldn't be surprised to see McNair take this approach. He seems like the "long game" type and with an extension in place, he has the security to approach it in such a way.
The issue is that Kuzma is not that star level player and this seems like a very shortsighted move. Moving Lyles to the starting lineup does not mean Barnes is off the team. In fact, you may see more scoring creation from Barnes putting him and Monk as the primary scoring options off the bench.
 
Yeah, what they do will change the landscape for some team, hopefully a team like the Kings. Sounds like they might be ready to blow and sent out that Scottie is the only untouchable. The obvious issue is that prior to that the value they put on their assets was stupid level. They want a Mitchell package for OG which is over the top IMO. Now for Siakam? Do it all day.
I easily trade Mitchell and more for OG he’s exactly what we need Mitchell is limited but I’m pretty sure we won’t come close to what OG goes for
 
I easily trade Mitchell and more for OG he’s exactly what we need Mitchell is limited but I’m pretty sure we won’t come close to what OG goes for
It's the picks that are scary. Those are Siakam level picks, not OG. It sounded like they wanted those picks way out and at least 3 of them haha.
 
Is there any way we can get back an all star level player without giving up Murray? That's the key right there, since they will definitely ask for him plus multiple draft picks.
 

Spike

Subsidiary Intermediary
Staff member
I want the Warriors again next year. I want Sabonis to set a screen so hard on Curry on the first play that Draymond (who is watching the playoffs at home in Charlotte) will cringe. Fox will stand over his corpse and casually say, "we lit your beam, bro."

We'll take the flagrant 2, and win the series in 5.
 
Actually, that's exactly what the Kings need as evidenced by how when Sabonis didn't go all "Shaq" people started to confuse that scoring need and lack team wise with an all star player being totally useless. The Kings need someone that can take the pressure off of Fox to score. In looking at the iso stats in post season play Fox was the only one that even registered a percentile. That's almost Jordan pre-Pippen stuff. Very unlikely that will take a team farther than the middle of the playoffs and could even set you back if teams upgrade over a summer.

The Kings need someone to reliably get buckets and this playoff preview showed exactly why. The playoffs are a different beast than the regular season. I think that the shooter teams having a chance thing of the last two seasons is already kind of dissipating. Physical style ball has kind of corrected the course. The Kings greatest net rating offense in history just struggled to get up to 12 out of 16. I've brought it up before, this is so similar to the millennium Kings it's eerie. That was a team that eventually had to adjust that offense into a more refined two man game and the trick wasn't adding more passing, it was adding more scoring mainly in the form of Mike Bibby.
So we get Grant or Lavine and devalue monk and Murray that’s a garbage move murray would get 8-10 shots a game while those two jack shots up will giving us minimal defense it’s not a winning strategy. Dude left a playoff contender in denver to be the “man” in Detroit on the same salary you want a guy that values “being the man” instead of being the third man behind Murray/Jokic to win rings I sure don’t
 
Seems like there aren't many better options out there. I wouldn't be opposed to bringing barnes back at 17.5mil or so a year. I mean you don't want to overpay guys like kuzma and Grant at 30-35mil per year. Safe to say we rather have Barnes at 17.5 (if he even accepts that) over paying 35mil a year for kuzma or grant?

Unless we make trades there aren't many other wings better than barnes on the free agent market this upcoming summer. I know he wasn't good during this playoff series but he hasn't been that bad through out his career.
15 mill per year is Barnes new Cap. He didn't help his stock these playoffs.
 
One other thing to consider in all this is do we still have Monk after next year. He said in his presser that he embraced his role as the sixth man however he said he embraced it because it’s not up to him, it’s up to the coach. That could be taken a couple different ways but it’s reasonable to wonder if starting would be taken into consideration on his next contract whether here or elsewhere. Fox seems like the type of friend to tell him to go get the biggest bag and role. Something to keep an eye on this next season when he is extension eligible
 

pdxKingsFan

So Ordinary That It's Truly Quite Extraordinary
Staff member
15 mill per year is Barnes new Cap. He didn't help his stock these playoffs.
I said 3/42 and a tweeter replied to me (not that figure) 4/60 ... I guess I can live with either. Not paying 17-18mpy after that disappearing act. If he wants to get paid and someone wants to pay him I think sign Lyles and Sasha and then try to get yourself that energy big and have them fight to win the starting spot next to Domas.