I've been thinking about this a bit more and it's easy to get wrapped up in the immediate emotional reaction to being in the playoffs, winning playoff games, losing playoff games, etc., but I think we need to keep our eyes on the prize and play the long game.
This is the 1st time we've been to the playoffs in 16 seasons. At the start of next season, Fox will be 25, Mitchell will be 25, Huerter will be 25, Monk will be 25, Davis will be 26, Murray will be 23, Edwards will be 23, Lyles will be 27, & Sabonis will be 27. We still have a relatively young core who should be in playoffs in many of the upcoming years.
Having said that, I think many of us can recognize that this team would likely need a 3rd star if we really want to become a contender one day which would push Sabonis into a 3rd option/facilitator role (which I think would be his sweet spot). If we acknowledge that fact and acknowledge that's the long term goal to elevate this team, we probably should recognize that we shouldn't trade any of our assets for anything less than that type of player (or cap space to sign such a player).
Now if Murray continues to develop and looks like he will become that 3rd star, great! We can look at selling off some of our assets for better fitting, complementary upgrades around Fox, Murray, and Sabonis, but until we know Murray will be that type of player, I think we need to keep our assets close and stay patient. If Murray looks like he won't develop into a star player, then perhaps that's when you look to combine your assets (Murray, Mitchell, Picks, etc.) to bring that type of player in to hopefully elevate a Fox/Sabonis core to a contender.
Giving us more time to assess what we have with Murray seems crucial to the direction we take as a franchise. If Murray breakouts into a fringe star next season, maybe we open the door to trading our assets for better fitting, complementary upgrades around Fox, Murray, & Sabonis. If Murray doesn't take a huge leap but we see good progression from Murray next season, perhaps we remain patient and give Murray a 3rd season to see if he progresses again. If Murray essentially looks like the same player next season, perhaps we consider moving Murray, Mitchell, and/or assets to bring in a 3rd star. The other bonus of being patient 1 more season, is that our 2024 1st will hopefully convey to Atlanta (protected top 14) which frees up all of our future 1sts (making it much easier to put together an attractive offer for a star).
With that in mind, we have ~$22.0 mil in cap space this offseason with the following players under contract:
- De'Aaron Fox
- Davion Mitchell
- Kevin Huerter
- Malik Monk
- Keegan Murray
- Kessler Edwards
- Domantas Sabonis
- Richaun Holmes
- 2023 SAC 1st
That cap space drops to ~$19.6 mil if we keep Lyles cap hold in place. I'm wondering if we just keep it simple and attempt to sign one of Cam Johnson, PJ Washington, or Grant Williams with that cap space. And if that doesn't work out, I'd likely just resign Barnes (who will be 31 at the start of next season). Then we'd use our exception on a backup C and call it an offseason. We'd have the following roster:
PG - Fox
|| Mitchell
SG - Huerter
|| Monk
SF - Murray
|| Edwards
PF - Johnson/Washington/Williams/Barnes
|| Lyles
C - Sabonis
|| FA C
Picks - #24
|| #38
|| #54
This essentially allows us to keep the same team/core while potentially replacing Barnes with a younger forward (who might be a more attractive asset if we do end up needing/wanting to trade for a 3rd star vs. the 31 year old Barnes). We'd also hopefully have an upgrade at backup C and have some young players via our draft picks that maybe surprise us.
After the 2023-24 season, you then go into the offseason (assuming our 2024 1st conveyed to Atlanta), and we'd have the following young assets to use in a trade (if we're not confident in Murray's ability to become that 3rd star at that point in time):
- Mitchell
- Monk (would need to be resigned first)
- Huerter
- Murray
- Edwards (would need to be resigned first)
- Johnson/Washington/Williams (assuming we signed one of these guys and not the 31 year old Barnes)
- #24 (from 2023 Draft)
- #38 (from 2023 Draft)
- #54 (from 2023 Draft)
- 2025 SAC 1st
- 2026 SAC 1st Pick Swap
- 2027 SAC 1st
- 2028 SAC 1st Pick Swap
- 2029 SAC 1st
- 2030 SAC 1st Pick Swap
- 2031 SAC 1st
I wouldn't be surprised to see McNair take this approach. He seems like the "long game" type and with an extension in place, he has the security to approach it in such a way.