[Trade] Warriors have obvious Jonathan Kuminga trade demand after latest Kings reports

  • Thread starter Thread starter Blue Man Hoop
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No. It wasn't. the comment was "he's a top-10 player in the league in all the basic advanced stats over the last three years" but ok.... you called it absurd but then list out only 4 other players, maybe 5 and make him top 15/16 on your list. You're not making the point you think you are here.

That’s 14 players nobody outside of this forum would argue is miles better than Sabonis if we include player you can debate are better than him it would move Sabonis closer to 18-23 range “top 10 player” talk is asinine


Like I said same people who swore up and down we were getting assets for Derozan this summer just laughable stuff. Now it’s “if Sabonis is traded we’ll get a kings ransom” lol ok be prepared to be disappointed everyone knows what Sabonis is come play-in time good luck building a roster around him when you need a perfect PF to field a playoff successful defense.
 
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I've never heard of the category of "basic advanced stats" before. It sounds somewhat ridiculous, but I guess it allows us to exclude BLK%?
What I mean is the overall contribution stats of Win Shares/VORP/Box Plus Minus/PER (if you like the Hollinger thing). What I meant to exclude there are things like BLK% (because I don't care if a guy blocks no shots if his presence on the floor causes the team to win by 20 points every game) and things like LEBRON which I haven't bothered to understand and don't typically look up.
 
That’s 14 players nobody outside of this forum would argue is miles better than Sabonis if we include player you can debate are better than him it would move Sabonis closer to 18-23 range “top 10 player” talk is asinine
And yet, "top 10 player over the last three years in Win Shares", asinine as it may seem to you, is TRUE.
 
What I mean is the overall contribution stats of Win Shares/VORP/Box Plus Minus/PER (if you like the Hollinger thing). What I meant to exclude there are things like BLK% (because I don't care if a guy blocks no shots if his presence on the floor causes the team to win by 20 points every game) and things like LEBRON which I haven't bothered to understand and don't typically look up.
Ah, I think the term for these are "impact stats", trying to summarize the overall effect of a player into a single score, instead of other advanced stats like blk%, ts%, trb%, which are "efficiency stats"
 
And yet, "top 10 player over the last three years in Win Shares", asinine as it may seem to you, is TRUE.

Somehow only makes one all star in three years two all nba. Has fox as a running mate who was the better player and somehow only one playoff appearance in three years two “top 10”

Too bad basketball isn’t played on paper so those analytics could transfer to wins
 
Somehow only makes one all star in three years two all nba. Has fox as a running mate who was the better player and somehow only one playoff appearance in three years two “top 10”

Too bad basketball isn’t played on paper so those analytics could transfer to wins

Yeah, if you squint you can *almost* *see* Win Shares translating into wins...

NBA_WS.png
 
Yeah, if you squint you can *almost* *see* Win Shares translating into wins...

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I see what you did there ;)

Of course the correlation will be strong when you look at team wins and team win shares (considering win shares looks to divvy up team wins across the player). The question should be more about does win shares actually do a good job divvying up the wins across the team considering Sabonis receives so much credit?

That’s likely because win shares are very reliant on counting stats and Sabonis is no stranger to counting stats, but admittedly, I don’t think his impact is as great as his counting stats seem to suggest.

For fun, this is how he ranks in advanced impact stats…

EPM = 38th
LEBRON = 28th
MAMBA = 38th
DARKO = 87th
2Y RAPM = 118th
eRAPTOR = 70th

I feel like the 30th-40th range feels about right for Sabonis all things considered.
 
Of course the correlation will be strong when you look at team wins and team win shares (considering win shares looks to divvy up team wins across the player).

This is not correct. The BBRef win shares calculation does not take wins into account when performing the calculation, nor does it subsequently adjust by team wins (though that adjustment was a part of the calculation several versions ago, it was removed in 2008).

That’s likely because win shares are very reliant on counting stats and Sabonis is no stranger to counting stats, but admittedly, I don’t think his impact is as great as his counting stats seem to suggest.

It's also true that counting stats are incredibly important to game outcomes, as the final score is, of course, a counting stat.

I don't have time to scrutinize the advanced impact stats you listed (and you didn't say whether you used the last three years), but I wonder how many of them are rate stats and don't take into account actual time spent on the floor. Certainly 118th (the lowest of them) seems like a very poor estimate of Sabonis' value. One might wonder how many of the players that slot in above Sabonis in those other stats have high per-possession impact but played few possessions, but I don't have the time right now to get into that.
 
This is not correct. The BBRef win shares calculation does not take wins into account when performing the calculation, nor does it subsequently adjust by team wins (though that adjustment was a part of the calculation several versions ago, it was removed in 2008).



It's also true that counting stats are incredibly important to game outcomes, as the final score is, of course, a counting stat.

I don't have time to scrutinize the advanced impact stats you listed (and you didn't say whether you used the last three years), but I wonder how many of them are rate stats and don't take into account actual time spent on the floor. Certainly 118th (the lowest of them) seems like a very poor estimate of Sabonis' value. One might wonder how many of the players that slot in above Sabonis in those other stats have high per-possession impact but played few possessions, but I don't have the time right now to get into that.

In a redraft for this season and we’re pick 10 are you taking Sabonis?
 
In a redraft for this season and we’re pick 10 are you taking Sabonis?
Drafting for one season only, picking from the list of players you gave earlier, the answer is "yes". I would take him somewhere between 5-8 (behind Jokic, Giannis, Luka, SGA) in the Tatum/Hali/Edwards/Sabonis tier. Tatum (edit: whiffed on "also Hali" here!) wouldn't get drafted under those conditions this year, of course.
 
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Yeah, if you squint you can *almost* *see* Win Shares translating into wins...

View attachment 14391
If you're summing up all win shares, you're basically just using net rating right? Win shares is way to assign a percentage of the net rating to every player. Any other arbitrary way to assign the credit for the net rating to various players would yield the same result when summed up. (You could do it by the ratio of jersey number to the sum of all jersey numbers and get the same.)
 
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