These are two things I tend to look at when evaluating the top of a draft. The first is obviously much more important. If you can draft a star player, especially an all-NBA level talent, you do that and figure out how to balance the roster later if need be. How a player fits with the current roster shouldn't be much of a determining factor unless two prospects are relatively equal in other regards. That said, if the Kings want to win next season, it probably does matter a bit more than it would normally.
Obviously just my opinion, but here's how I would rank the top prospects:
Paolo Banchero
Star potential: High
Banchero is a big wing with great scoring instincts, a really good handle for his size, and advanced playmaking skills. He could potentially be the focal point of an offense with his ability to score from all three levels and transition between quickness/finesse and power moves really well. His outside shot is inconsistent and he'll need to improve there to reach his potential, but there are very few holes in his offensive game.
Fit: Decent
Banchero CAN be a decent individual defender when engaged, but he often just didn't give much effort on that end. He's a pretty good team defender and directs traffic well, but often gets caught ball watching and loses his man. He also offers little rim protection. So he's likely not going to improve a bad Kings defense. He also operates best in the midrange so he's not going to be a great floor spacer. On the other hand, having two bigs that can both playmake would give visions of the old Vlade/Webber Kings. You'd need shooters at the other two spots but it could work.
Chet Holmgren
Star potential: Medium
I'm a big Holmgren fan. He's potentially an elite rim protector with an incredible feel for blocking shots and keeping them in play. He can stretch the floor, has fantastic touch near the hoop, rebounds well, shows really strong playmaking potential, and handles and moves very well for a 7 footer. At his best Holmgren can affect the game in a number of ways. So why don't I view him to have high star potential? Because I don't think Holmgren will ever be able to impose his will on a defense. I don't see a way that you can toss him the ball and ask him to get you a bucket. But he'd be able to impact the game in a lot of ways. So while I don't think he's ever a traditional "star" level player, at his best he could be Gobert-like on defense without getting run off the floor when teams go small and/or pick and roll him over and over while also doing a little of everything on offense. That's potentially a star player.
Fit: It depends
Holmgren played with Timme and made it work but it wasn't ideal for either of them. Sabonis is a bit more versatile on offense than Timme and they could definitely run some two man game. If Cleveland made it work on offense with Jarett Allen and Evan Mobley I think the Kings definitely could with Holmgren and Sabonis. But on defense, Cleveland's plan worked because Mobley has the quickness to defend wings on the perimeter. Holmgren moves well for a seven footer, but he's not Mobley. Chet is engaged and active on perimeter switches, he flips his hips well, takes good angles, and uses his length to recover when beaten. But while that worked on the NCAA level I don't know if he'll be as successful against bigger, stronger, and faster NBA wings and guards. And if he can't do a decent job of defending on the perimeter then it makes it really hard to play he and Domas together.
Jabari Smith Jr
Star potential: Medium
Smith should be a very good NBA player for a long time. He is an elite shooter at 6'10" who is switchable on defense. He's also one of the youngest players in this class while apparently being very coachable and a hard worker. For a lot of prospects developing an outside shot is the swing skill that could take them from good to great. Smith already has that. He makes more tough, contested jumpers than pretty much any prospect I've watched the last few years. But he's not a strong vertical athlete, struggles to score inside and plays pretty stiff with a shaky handle. There's a lot there he'd need to clean up but with such a high floor to start with I think his bust potential is very low and given the leap he made the last year I wouldn't bet against him.
Fit: Ideal
Smith Jr spaces the floor and is switchable on defense. With Fox and Domas he'd be able to ease into the league as a stretch 4 who isn't asked to do a ton more right away. Of all the top prospects he is maybe the best fit with the current Kings "core".
Jaden Ivey
Star potential: Medium to high
I like Ivey. He's a lot of fun to watch, especially his highlights. Watching full games you see more of his warts, but he's still special athletically and has an underrated outside shot. But I see him compared to Ja Morant a fair amount and there's a huge distinction to be made. Ivey right now isn't a lead guard. His A/TO ratio is just above one and he's a good playmaker for a SG but he's not a PG at this stage. Big athletic PGs like Morant, Westbrook, pre-injury Derrick Rose have a great shot at being star players. Ivey, again right now at least, would be closer to Zach LaVine, Donovan Mitchell, Victor Oladipo, or (as a best case comp) Dwayne Wade as a slightly undersized but super athletic SG rather than a big, athletic PG. It doesn't mean he can't be a star, but it's a little higher climb. That said, he has an insanely quick first step, is a great finisher at the basket, stepped up in big games/crunchtime and shot 37% from three on decent volume, with many of his shots well beyond the NBA three. His defense was generally not good, but he could turn it up as an on ball defender when he chose to.
Fit: Not great
Ivey does work well as a cutter so he and Sabonis would have some highlight plays for sure. And he can shoot from outside but rarely from midrange so he's not going to clog up the paint for Fox or Sabonis. But having two attacking guards, one who shoots okay and one who shoots poor to okay (if De'Aaron's post trade shooting splits are to be believed) and who are often indifferent on defense despite their physical gifts doesn't seem like a great recipe for success. Again, if McNair thinks Ivey is a star, you take him and figure out the rest. But IMO the fit isn't great. That said, I think there's a decent chance Ivey goes top 3.
More to come.
Obviously just my opinion, but here's how I would rank the top prospects:
Paolo Banchero
Star potential: High
Banchero is a big wing with great scoring instincts, a really good handle for his size, and advanced playmaking skills. He could potentially be the focal point of an offense with his ability to score from all three levels and transition between quickness/finesse and power moves really well. His outside shot is inconsistent and he'll need to improve there to reach his potential, but there are very few holes in his offensive game.
Fit: Decent
Banchero CAN be a decent individual defender when engaged, but he often just didn't give much effort on that end. He's a pretty good team defender and directs traffic well, but often gets caught ball watching and loses his man. He also offers little rim protection. So he's likely not going to improve a bad Kings defense. He also operates best in the midrange so he's not going to be a great floor spacer. On the other hand, having two bigs that can both playmake would give visions of the old Vlade/Webber Kings. You'd need shooters at the other two spots but it could work.
Chet Holmgren
Star potential: Medium
I'm a big Holmgren fan. He's potentially an elite rim protector with an incredible feel for blocking shots and keeping them in play. He can stretch the floor, has fantastic touch near the hoop, rebounds well, shows really strong playmaking potential, and handles and moves very well for a 7 footer. At his best Holmgren can affect the game in a number of ways. So why don't I view him to have high star potential? Because I don't think Holmgren will ever be able to impose his will on a defense. I don't see a way that you can toss him the ball and ask him to get you a bucket. But he'd be able to impact the game in a lot of ways. So while I don't think he's ever a traditional "star" level player, at his best he could be Gobert-like on defense without getting run off the floor when teams go small and/or pick and roll him over and over while also doing a little of everything on offense. That's potentially a star player.
Fit: It depends
Holmgren played with Timme and made it work but it wasn't ideal for either of them. Sabonis is a bit more versatile on offense than Timme and they could definitely run some two man game. If Cleveland made it work on offense with Jarett Allen and Evan Mobley I think the Kings definitely could with Holmgren and Sabonis. But on defense, Cleveland's plan worked because Mobley has the quickness to defend wings on the perimeter. Holmgren moves well for a seven footer, but he's not Mobley. Chet is engaged and active on perimeter switches, he flips his hips well, takes good angles, and uses his length to recover when beaten. But while that worked on the NCAA level I don't know if he'll be as successful against bigger, stronger, and faster NBA wings and guards. And if he can't do a decent job of defending on the perimeter then it makes it really hard to play he and Domas together.
Jabari Smith Jr
Star potential: Medium
Smith should be a very good NBA player for a long time. He is an elite shooter at 6'10" who is switchable on defense. He's also one of the youngest players in this class while apparently being very coachable and a hard worker. For a lot of prospects developing an outside shot is the swing skill that could take them from good to great. Smith already has that. He makes more tough, contested jumpers than pretty much any prospect I've watched the last few years. But he's not a strong vertical athlete, struggles to score inside and plays pretty stiff with a shaky handle. There's a lot there he'd need to clean up but with such a high floor to start with I think his bust potential is very low and given the leap he made the last year I wouldn't bet against him.
Fit: Ideal
Smith Jr spaces the floor and is switchable on defense. With Fox and Domas he'd be able to ease into the league as a stretch 4 who isn't asked to do a ton more right away. Of all the top prospects he is maybe the best fit with the current Kings "core".
Jaden Ivey
Star potential: Medium to high
I like Ivey. He's a lot of fun to watch, especially his highlights. Watching full games you see more of his warts, but he's still special athletically and has an underrated outside shot. But I see him compared to Ja Morant a fair amount and there's a huge distinction to be made. Ivey right now isn't a lead guard. His A/TO ratio is just above one and he's a good playmaker for a SG but he's not a PG at this stage. Big athletic PGs like Morant, Westbrook, pre-injury Derrick Rose have a great shot at being star players. Ivey, again right now at least, would be closer to Zach LaVine, Donovan Mitchell, Victor Oladipo, or (as a best case comp) Dwayne Wade as a slightly undersized but super athletic SG rather than a big, athletic PG. It doesn't mean he can't be a star, but it's a little higher climb. That said, he has an insanely quick first step, is a great finisher at the basket, stepped up in big games/crunchtime and shot 37% from three on decent volume, with many of his shots well beyond the NBA three. His defense was generally not good, but he could turn it up as an on ball defender when he chose to.
Fit: Not great
Ivey does work well as a cutter so he and Sabonis would have some highlight plays for sure. And he can shoot from outside but rarely from midrange so he's not going to clog up the paint for Fox or Sabonis. But having two attacking guards, one who shoots okay and one who shoots poor to okay (if De'Aaron's post trade shooting splits are to be believed) and who are often indifferent on defense despite their physical gifts doesn't seem like a great recipe for success. Again, if McNair thinks Ivey is a star, you take him and figure out the rest. But IMO the fit isn't great. That said, I think there's a decent chance Ivey goes top 3.
More to come.
