To tank or not?

[SacTownKid]

He's never been an actual good prospect. Just propped up by us fans by trying to throw anything against the wall to see what sticks. I wouldn't lose sleep over DQJ, James or Guy not turning into rotational players. Next up we'll see what Woodard and Ramsey have but the chances are overwhelmingly likely that they won't be rotational players either.

I'd like to see the Kings start going after big men further down in the draft. Seems like decent big men can be had further down in the draft while wings are less likely.

The difference with DaQuan is that his physical profile lends itself to being that switch wing/big in the small ball system. He's got the length and the strength and it was much better used in the bubble. James is a SG, Guy is a combo G and neither can switch up effectively. All 3 are need guys, nothing more and I highly doubt anyone sees DaQuan as a anything more than a good fit role guy in a league where players like him can help if used right.

 

[ESP47]

The difference with DaQuan is that his physical profile lends itself to being that switch wing/big in the small ball system. He's got the length and the strength and it was much better used in the bubble. James is a SG, Guy is a combo G and neither can switch up effectively. All 3 are need guys, nothing more and I highly doubt anyone sees DaQuan as a anything more than a good fit role guy in a league where players like him can help if used right.

Well yeah theoretically DQJ is all those things but as of right now he's not a good enough basketball player to be able to actually do all those things at an average level or better. I'm all for playing him so we can see what we've got and help the tank but if I was coaching this squad to win, he probably wouldn't see very many minutes due to just flat out not being as good as his NBA competition.

 

[sactowndog]

Well, you didn't read carefully enough. I'll give you a hint, when you see the players name the explanation follows. And I was referring to Buddy's game last year when fighting for time with Bogdan. This year he's gotten that starting spot hence the easing in is over.

let me give you a hint. Your sentence two refers to Hield, sentence 4 refers to Haliburton, and no paragraph is to be found. Every other reference refers to he with no further clarification. No point responding to an unclear post. But I guess your sentence construction does match your basketball analysis.

 

[sactowndog]

Oh yeah, by the way the last times we tried to win games and weren't "tanking" we ended up with Dearron and Marvin, but we were lucky to end up with Dearron at 5 and then get the 2nd overall pick...

The closest thing I can remember to the difference in one pick really screwing us over was when Ron Ron won us some games in gold Jerseys down the stretch of the season in I believe 2008? We ended up with Spencer Hawes, the next pick up was Joakim Noah.

we got D’Aaron at 5 because Philly did tank and when we swapped picks we only dropped from 3 to 5. Had Philly not tanked Fox would have been long gone and we likely would have drafted Frank Nitiklina or Dennis Smith. Our best player we got because another team was smart enough to tank on our behalf.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

we got D’Aaron at 5 because Philly did tank and when we swapped picks we only dropped from 3 to 5. Had Philly not tanked Fox would have been long gone and we likely would have drafted Frank Nitiklina or Dennis Smith. Our best player we got because another team was smart enough to tank on our behalf.

At that stage of the process I am pretty sure Philly was trying to win they just sucked. They blew 3 out of 5 years of top draft picks and Embiid and Simmons both had to take redshirt years and Embiid sat a second season in between. Honestly the greatest argument against the process is that even though it was "successful" there are teams that didn't do what they did and are still better.

 

[sactowndog]

At that stage of the process I am pretty sure Philly was trying to win they just sucked. They blew 3 out of 5 years of top draft picks and Embiid and Simmons both had to take redshirt years and Embiid sat a second season in between. Honestly the greatest argument against the process is that even though it was "successful" there are teams that didn't do what they did and are still better.

No at that point they were still in the process. Simmons sat out the entire year instead of coming back near the end. They were actively tanking. Lucky for us.

 

[sactowndog]

Not sure what’s more shocking. That tanking has a 9-4 lead or that only 13 people care enough anymore to vote.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Not sure what’s more shocking. That tanking has a 9-4 lead or that only 13 people care enough anymore to vote.

Frankly, I haven't voted because I'm torn. Two things can both be true.

1: For a small market team, tanking is almost certainly the best way to get better.

2: I'm sick and tired of losing and if we have an outside chance to just make the playoffs again I'd like that.

 

[sactowndog]

Frankly, I haven't voted because I'm torn. Two things can both be true.

1: For a small market team, tanking is almost certainly the best way to get better.

2: I'm sick and tired of losing and if we have an outside chance to just make the playoffs again I'd like that.

I can appreciate the feeling. I think we all are.

I do think chasing that remote chance, and Vlade’s horrible drafting, is partly why we are where we are. Two things have to happen. Be in position to take a star type player ( usually tanking for top 5) and not Fing it up when you are there.

 

[dude12]

Hard to even care about any path until Walton is kicked to the corner. After the trade deadline if Cojo and Bjelica are still getting minutes, then I’m about to have a sit in in front of Golden One with my Walton is a terrible coach sign......I’d say 24/7 but I got to work

 

[ESP47]

Buddy Hield is like alright I'm going to play terribly and contribute to the big losing streaks to start the year to ensure the team doesn't make the playoffs. Thus also tanking his trade value. Now that it's obvious that the season is lost and the Kings need a high draft pick, Buddy decides to start making shots and helps the team inch toward the late lottery.

 

[ppine]

Hard to tell if they are losing on purpose, but they are really good at losing.

 

[est.1999]

The rockets with the biggest tank job I’ve ever seen. They should have their pick taken away

 

[pdxKingsFan]

The rockets with the biggest tank job I’ve ever seen. They should have their pick taken away

If they don't win a top 4 spot they will wind up with Miami's pick. NBA has a funny way of the worst team sometimes not getting one of the podium spots and it almost always happens when a team "deserves" it.

 

[kingsboi]

The rockets with the biggest tank job I’ve ever seen. They should have their pick taken away

That would be ideal, it's hard to fathom how a team with Wall, Oladipo and Wood can't muster a W but its bound to happen eventually

 

[Gguod]

Once again, meaningless season behind us, 9th pick, not ever a real contender and not any future draft asstets added. The question remain the same: should we keep doing this or maybe try the other route?

Is this the route where we suddenly become a contender? Is 9th pick the thing that changes things for a small market team with serious cap limitations and zero additional high value draft capital? Whats the other way to significantly improve? If the biggest hope is the draft then why are we operating in a way that our draft odds are very bad?

New season begins relatively soon, maybe the poll could be restarted but should we continue trying to make small win now moves or should we do something we havent even tried?

 

[Folsomkingsfan]

Once again, meaningless season behind us, 9th pick, not ever a real contender and not any future draft asstets added. The question remain the same: should we keep doing this or maybe try the other route?

Is this the route where we suddenly become a contender? Is 9th pick the thing that changes things for a small market team with serious cap limitations and zero additional high value draft capital? Whats the other way to significantly improve? If the biggest hope is the draft then why are we operating in a way that our draft odds are very bad?

New season begins relatively soon, maybe the poll could be restarted but should we continue trying to make small win now moves or should we do something we havent even tried?

Idk what we do but I do know I’ve never seen the fan base so unenthusiastic. A big portion of the base has completely tuned out, which is very justified. I think if things stay the same and no moves are done to excite the base then This is the year you finally start to see an empty arena during games.

 

[hrdboild]

Once again, meaningless season behind us, 9th pick, not ever a real contender and not any future draft asstets added. The question remain the same: should we keep doing this or maybe try the other route?

Is this the route where we suddenly become a contender? Is 9th pick the thing that changes things for a small market team with serious cap limitations and zero additional high value draft capital? Whats the other way to significantly improve? If the biggest hope is the draft then why are we operating in a way that our draft odds are very bad?

New season begins relatively soon, maybe the poll could be restarted but should we continue trying to make small win now moves or should we do something we havent even tried?

I'm all for a new approach but what do you imagine that would look like? Teams acquire talent either via the draft, free agency, or trades. Identifying talent is crucial to getting good value with all three. I also think there's a couple clear examples this year of how important coaching is to a team's success. New York went from one of the worst teams in the league to the #4 seed in the East this season after they added a former Coach of the Year. Atlanta looked like they would struggle to sneak into the playoffs with a sub 500 record until they made a coaching change which catapulted them into the Eastern Conference Finals (and potentially further). The other big success story this year has been Phoenix which found the missing piece to fast track their youth movement was a Hall of Fame PG to run Monty Williams' offense. None of these teams got much production from their 2020 lottery picks but they all had a foundation in place of players they drafted in previous years combined with some key free agent signings and a coach who knew how to use the roster.

I think it's pretty obvious that we would benefit by placing a much greater emphasis on defensive consistency while also acquiring talent which is capable of executing a defensive game plan for more than a few sporadic stretches. Regardless of how we win though, I don't see how we get anywhere until we have a front office who can identify talent at any point in the draft and a coaching staff that maximizes the talent we do have. Many of the teams in the playoffs this year are led by players drafted 9th or lower. With roster sizes so small in the NBA any team in the league can transform from chronic failure to success over a span of a year or two with a few significant moves. What we can't do is continue making 1 good move and 3 bad ones every year. As long as our smart signings and hirings are outnumbered by the poor ones we're going to continue muddling along not getting anywhere.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

The only way to tank this team is to ship Fox.

I don't agree that a Process is the best approach and Atlanta and Phoenix are bearing that out.

Let's just see if Monte is a good GM.

 

[Section 101]

I'm all for a new approach but what do you imagine that would look like? Teams acquire talent either via the draft, free agency, or trades. Identifying talent is crucial to getting good value with all three. I also think there's a couple clear examples this year of how important coaching is to a team's success. New York went from one of the worst teams in the league to the #4 seed in the East this season after they added a former Coach of the Year. Atlanta looked like they would struggle to sneak into the playoffs with a sub 500 record until they made a coaching change which catapulted them into the Eastern Conference Finals (and potentially further). The other big success story this year has been Phoenix which found the missing piece to fast track their youth movement was a Hall of Fame PG to run Monty Williams' offense. None of these teams got much production from their 2020 lottery picks but they all had a foundation in place of players they drafted in previous years combined with some key free agent signings and a coach who knew how to use the roster.

I think it's pretty obvious that we would benefit by placing a much greater emphasis on defensive consistency while also acquiring talent which is capable of executing a defensive game plan for more than a few sporadic stretches. Regardless of how we win though, I don't see how we get anywhere until we have a front office who can identify talent at any point in the draft and a coaching staff that maximizes the talent we do have. Many of the teams in the playoffs this year are led by players drafted 9th or lower. With roster sizes so small in the NBA any team in the league can transform from chronic failure to success over a span of a year or two with a few significant moves. What we can't do is continue making 1 good move and 3 bad ones every year. As long as our smart signings and hirings are outnumbered by the poor ones we're going to continue muddling along not getting anywhere.

It basically comes down we got the number 2 pick and blew it. Doesn't matter where you pick if you pick the wrong guy.

 

[Tetsujin]

It basically comes down we got the number 2 pick and blew it. Doesn't matter where you pick if you pick the wrong guy.

I don't think anyone is debating that but what does that have to do with the team's course of action going forward?

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I don't think anyone is debating that but what does that have to do with the team's course of action going forward?

I think he's saying that you can increase the number of darts you can throw or you can improve/perfect your aim?

 

[sactowndog]

I think he's saying that you can increase the number of darts you can throw or you can improve/perfect your aim?

McNair’s aim is tbd. Halliburton looks like a good pick but this year could be telling. He could take one of Wagner, Johnson, Moody, Giddey, Giddey or Sengun. Hell even Garuba. They all have reasons to love them and warts. It will be interesting to see what he does.

 

[hrdboild]

I think he's saying that you can increase the number of darts you can throw or you can improve/perfect your aim?

And to add to that, you can't really increase the number of darts you throw very much when we're talking about first round picks without giving up so much that the tradeoff isn't worth it. Perfecting the aim is substantially more impactful and doesn't cost you anything in return (aside from maybe a bump to your scouting budget).

 

[Tetsujin]

And to add to that, you can't really increase the number of darts you throw very much when we're talking about first round picks without giving up so much that the tradeoff isn't worth it. Perfecting the aim is substantially more impactful and doesn't cost you anything in return (aside from maybe a bump to your scouting budget).

Fair enough. And while it is still a super small sample size, I trust Monte McNair's aim in that regard more than Vlade.

 

[Gguod]

The only way to tank this team is to ship Fox.

I don't agree that a Process is the best approach and Atlanta and Phoenix are bearing that out.

Let's just see if Monte is a good GM.

Atlanta had a few seasons where they didint really try to win. Or at least the moves they made wasnt short sighted win now moves during that time. This year they made win now moves after couple of years of gaining future assets and drafting high and those win now moves turned into competitive team.

Of coruce the biggest component is Trae Young (who I had pre draft WAY higher than Bagley, even higher than Ayton). You need players like that and its statistically much more likely to get them drafting top 3 compared to 9-12.

I'm all for a new approach but what do you imagine that would look like? Teams acquire talent either via the draft, free agency, or trades. Identifying talent is crucial to getting good value with all three. I also think there's a couple clear examples this year of how important coaching is to a team's success. New York went from one of the worst teams in the league to the #4 seed in the East this season after they added a former Coach of the Year. Atlanta looked like they would struggle to sneak into the playoffs with a sub 500 record until they made a coaching change which catapulted them into the Eastern Conference Finals (and potentially further). The other big success story this year has been Phoenix which found the missing piece to fast track their youth movement was a Hall of Fame PG to run Monty Williams' offense. None of these teams got much production from their 2020 lottery picks but they all had a foundation in place of players they drafted in previous years combined with some key free agent signings and a coach who knew how to use the roster.

I think it's pretty obvious that we would benefit by placing a much greater emphasis on defensive consistency while also acquiring talent which is capable of executing a defensive game plan for more than a few sporadic stretches. Regardless of how we win though, I don't see how we get anywhere until we have a front office who can identify talent at any point in the draft and a coaching staff that maximizes the talent we do have. Many of the teams in the playoffs this year are led by players drafted 9th or lower. With roster sizes so small in the NBA any team in the league can transform from chronic failure to success over a span of a year or two with a few significant moves. What we can't do is continue making 1 good move and 3 bad ones every year. As long as our smart signings and hirings are outnumbered by the poor ones we're going to continue muddling along not getting anywhere.

You are right. You need good talent and good coaching. We dont have good coaching at the moment and clearly need that top level talent. The supporting players are great (Hali, Barnes, Hield, Holmes), the bench easily good enough but we just need that top level talent. One wing defender wont turn us from 30-38 win team into a 40-50 win team. Statistically only top level players would have that amount of effect in to your team (plus good coaching).

Free agency wont net us a top guy, trades wont net us a top guy due to their lack of interest to sign with us long term and our lack of additional assets to use in trades. My point is that if the need of top talent is acknowledged, we put ourselves in a horrible position year after year after year by drafting outside of that top 3 where its statistically proven to find top level guys much more likely.

Coaching is important. Talent evaluation is important. Trusting that your organisation is so much better than others that it will find the game changer in a draft from 9-12 range is a long shot if you look at the data. We've been trusting in that for so long and imo a big reason why we've been horrible for ridiculously long is due to that type of thinking and way of operating

 

[whozit]

Atlanta had a few seasons where they didint really try to win. Or at least the moves they made wasnt short sighted win now moves during that time. This year they made win now moves after couple of years of gaining future assets and drafting high and those win now moves turned into competitive team.

Of coruce the biggest component is Trae Young (who I had pre draft WAY higher than Bagley, even higher than Ayton). You need players like that and its statistically much more likely to get them drafting top 3 compared to 9-12.



You are right. You need good talent and good coaching. We dont have good coaching at the moment and clearly need that top level talent. The supporting players are great (Hali, Barnes, Hield, Holmes), the bench easily good enough but we just need that top level talent. One wing defender wont turn us from 30-38 win team into a 40-50 win team. Statistically only top level players would have that amount of effect in to your team (plus good coaching).

Free agency wont net us a top guy, trades wont net us a top guy due to their lack of interest to sign with us long term and our lack of additional assets to use in trades. My point is that if the need of top talent is acknowledged, we put ourselves in a horrible position year after year after year by drafting outside of that top 3 where its statistically proven to find top level guys much more likely.

Coaching is important. Talent evaluation is important. Trusting that your organisation is so much better than others that it will find the game changer in a draft from 9-12 range is a long shot if you look at the data. We've been trusting in that for so long and imo a big reason why we've been horrible for ridiculously long is due to that type of thinking and way of operating

I'm not going to argue your point about the top three picks more likely to obtain a franchise changing talent.

But you seem to gloss over, we still have questionable coaching AND talent evaluation is still really an unknown. The latter looks favorable so far but.... McNair has done at least fair in the trades he has made so far. Just because you or I don't see a trade being available doesn't mean there isn't one. I wouldn't exclude any options.

The Controlling Interest has laid his law down. McNair's job is now to make lemonade out of that lemon.

 

[Gguod]

I'm not going to argue your point about the top three picks more likely to obtain a franchise changing talent.

But you seem to gloss over, we still have questionable coaching AND talent evaluation is still really an unknown. The latter looks favorable so far but.... McNair has done at least fair in the trades he has made so far. Just because you or I don't see a trade being available doesn't mean there isn't one. I wouldn't exclude any options.

The Controlling Interest has laid his law down. McNair's job is now to make lemonade out of that lemon.

Imo hoping and trusting that our front office is so great that it will manage to do a franchise changing trade without any additional valuable draft assets is a long shot. Its just very unlikely. Imo the odds arent in favor of that happening and I dont like to design plans that rely on very bad odds.

Imo its a fact that we need a top level player. We literally have an awesome supporting cast but we still arent even close to a competitive team. A franchise should operate in a way that it gets that player. So far I havent seen the way of operating being focused to that

 

[iowamcnabb]

Imo hoping and trusting that our front office is so great that it will manage to do a franchise changing trade without any additional valuable draft assets is a long shot. Its just very unlikely. Imo the odds arent in favor of that happening and I dont like to design plans that rely on very bad odds.

Imo its a fact that we need a top level player. We literally have an awesome supporting cast but we still arent even close to a competitive team. A franchise should operate in a way that it gets that player. So far I havent seen the way of operating being focused to that

I got to figure a 24 year old who has improved every year and averaged 25 and 7 this year is pretty close to top tier. If he improves 5 percentage points on his free throws and becomes better defensively we are looking at a star. I also think people are sleeping on Haliburton. He has next level BBIQ and those guys always find ways to get better.

the Hawks are a great example of a path we could potentially follow. They have one elite offensive player and a bunch of really good role players.

 

[Gguod]

I got to figure a 24 year old who has improved every year and averaged 25 and 7 this year is pretty close to top tier. If he improves 5 percentage points on his free throws and becomes better defensively we are looking at a star. I also think people are sleeping on Haliburton. He has next level BBIQ and those guys always find ways to get better.

the Hawks are a great example of a path we could potentially follow. They have one elite offensive player and a bunch of really good role players.

Trae Young is one of the best offensive players in this league. Hes so good at it that you can run at least an average offense with him and any regular role players. Fox isnt quite on that same level and as a team its hard to improve other than marginally by adding little better role players since our role players are already very good.

The Hawks path is a good one but it took few years of being very bad and eventually getting a top level player, bunch of other high draft picks and great cap situation to make big moves when they felt they were ready.

We can keep building around Fox and finding awesome role players for him and hope that our 9th pick hits but if I had to predict, I would say that this same exact conversation that we've had season after season without anything changing, it will be the same conversation that we will have in the future too if in fact the way of operating stays the same