The art and agony of the tank (split from game thread)

[east_sac]

So basically an auction system - that's definitely thinking outside of the box.

It's not clear whether you're proposing that teams bid for a pick or bid for a player. Presumably they would bid for a pick, so the first "item" up for auction is not "Marquelle Fultz" but it's "Pick #1 in the draft". Another question is whether teams winning picks would then select their player immediately or if player selection would occur after the picks are all assigned. It seems like the bids are blind, but in that case I'm not sure you really want a re-bid, just break the tie immediately. And I think you may have meant to say that non-lottery teams can't pick before 14 (the number of lottery teams) unless a lotto team hasn't bid (that might cause some intrigue, because a fairly low bid could win the 14th pick).

There are a couple of other questions, such as how many years would points roll over (just one, or indefinitely?), if there is a minimum number of points that must be spent (can a team just decline to bid at all in a weak draft and have a dominating hand the next year?), and whether or not there's a limit to the number of picks a team can acquire in a single draft.

But this is interesting. I'd have to think about whether it would do a good job of both removing the incentive to tank and correcting competitive imbalance. My initial thought is that while the point payouts you describe would de-incentivize tanking, there isn't much correction for competitive imbalance. But it's worth thinking about.

Thanks for the feedback Cap. My original thought was for bidding on players, but that might get confusing after the first pick happened.

i.e:
Sacramento bid 65 pts for player A and 35 pts for player B
LA bid 75 pts for player A and 25 pts for player C
Phx bid 85 pts for player B and 15 pts for player D

In my system it would be announced that Phx with 85 pts won the pick of Player B. Now Sacramento could take that 35 Pts they had on Player B and apply some of it to their Player A bid now that they know that Player B is off the board, or invest it in another player bid. This scenario would repeat after each winning bid was announced until 60 players were chosen or there were no more bids.

The strength of the system is that it doesn't rely on your win/loss record so much as how much you are willing to spend on getting a player given that you only have so many pts to spend.

I can see this getting confusing, so may be bidding on the pick placement might play out in a more simplified manner.

 

[Kingz19]

Lol

Wolves have no shame

Neither do the Mavs...Romo?

 

[kingsboi]

What's mind-boggling about the Wolves is their defense. They have a lot of players who either are or should be good defensively. Not to mention a head coach known as a defensive guru. There is no reason for them to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league.

Young players don't consistently play defense, Thibs can only do so much. He also can't teach offensive players to all of a sudden turn into defenders, which is what KAT, Wiggins & LaVine are. Rubio is a capable defender and he has the most experience but other than that, give them some time with Thibs in order for him to establish his defensive principles.

 

[Bosnian Diehard]

TWolves leading OKC by one in fourth, came back down from 23. Keep it up!

Mavs losing to the Nuggets at home.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

@ESP47, that's easy for you to say... I might see where you were coming from if teams cut ticket prices once they've been eliminated from playoff contention (and issue partial refunds to STH's), but they don't. You say that nobody cares about these teams tanking, but these teams are still charging full freight for people to come out and watch this bull****. That's unconscionable.

 

[Suicide King]

@Mr. Slim Citrus

I am glad someone saw my point I was trying to get across.

 

[White_Chocolate]

Wolves lost! Dammit

 

[hrdboild]

It is absolutely unbelievable to me that there are 30 teams in the NBA and the team with the second longest active playoff drought is going to be the one team to take a stand and say "we're above tanking, we're playing our best players no matter what". We just fell 4 spots in the draft in a couple of weeks by beating teams that were trying to lose. Dallas acquired Nerlens Noel at the trade deadline and looked like an up and coming playoff team but then reversed course and benched Seth Curry, Harrison Barnes, Wesley Matthews, Dirk Nowitzki, and Nerlens Noel down the stretch. Phoenix benched Eric Bledsoe at the All-Star break, made Tyson Chandler disappear somehow and even pulled Devin Booker out of a game that didn't actually matter for their lotto seeding all so they could keep the #2 seed. This is the best PG draft in 10 years and we have no PGs signed for next year. It should be a no brainer! Rest everyone, sign d-leaguers to 10 day contracts, make sure you pick in the top 6 so you're guaranteed an elite PG. Nope. We're going to play all of our first round picks right to the end. We're acting like we don't want a top 5 pick, that we'd rather pick 10th where all 5 elite PGs are going to be taken already. Why did you trade Cousins at the trade deadline if you weren't even going to tank?! You don't think you could get a better draft day deal for your first team All-NBA center than Buddy Hield (who looked terrible in New Orleans all year) and the 10th pick in the draft? Seriously?

I was on board for the Cousins trade only because it looked like the strategy might be working and we could end up with two very good players in a stacked draft and another good player next year before we owe our 2019 pick to Philadelphia. But you know what? Eff that mess. We traded a top 5 player in the league for the 10th pick (lotto protected -- so it might not even be that high) and a pretty good rookie and we let so many teams sprint by us in the last 2 weeks of the season that we might just miss out on 8 elite prospects. People talk about the Lakers screwing themselves by winning too many games at the end but seriously they fell from the #2 seed to the #3 seed. Boo hoo. We pushed ourselves from #4 down to #9 for no damn reason at all. I think maybe this team just wants to lose. There's no other explanation. Way to screw over your fans twice in the same season.

 

[ESP47]

@ESP47, that's easy for you to say... I might see where you were coming from if teams cut ticket prices once they've been eliminated from playoff contention (and issue partial refunds to STH's), but they don't. You say that nobody cares about these teams tanking, but these teams are still charging full freight for people to come out and watch this bull****. That's unconscionable.

Oh I'm with you there on the ticket prices. That's why I don't go unless there's some sort of special deal. The Kings will get my money when they start putting out a product worth watching.

 

[parker]

It is absolutely unbelievable to me that there are 30 teams in the NBA and the team with the second longest active playoff drought is going to be the one team to take a stand and say "we're above tanking, we're playing our best players no matter what". We just fell 4 spots in the draft in a couple of weeks by beating teams that were trying to lose. Dallas acquired Nerlens Noel at the trade deadline and looked like an up and coming playoff team but then reversed course and benched Seth Curry, Harrison Barnes, Wesley Matthews, Dirk Nowitzki, and Nerlens Noel down the stretch. Phoenix benched Eric Bledsoe at the All-Star break, made Tyson Chandler disappear somehow and even pulled Devin Booker out of a game that didn't actually matter for their lotto seeding all so they could keep the #2 seed. This is the best PG draft in 10 years and we have no PGs signed for next year. It should be a no brainer! Rest everyone, sign d-leaguers to 10 day contracts, make sure you pick in the top 6 so you're guaranteed an elite PG. Nope. We're going to play all of our first round picks right to the end. We're acting like we don't want a top 5 pick, that we'd rather pick 10th where all 5 elite PGs are going to be taken already. Why did you trade Cousins at the trade deadline if you weren't even going to tank?! You don't think you could get a better draft day deal for your first team All-NBA center than Buddy Hield (who looked terrible in New Orleans all year) and the 10th pick in the draft? Seriously?

I was on board for the Cousins trade only because it looked like the strategy might be working and we could end up with two very good players in a stacked draft and another good player next year before we owe our 2019 pick to Philadelphia. But you know what? Eff that mess. We traded a top 5 player in the league for the 10th pick (lotto protected -- so it might not even be that high) and a pretty good rookie and we let so many teams sprint by us in the last 2 weeks of the season that we might just miss out on 8 elite prospects. People talk about the Lakers screwing themselves by winning too many games at the end but seriously they fell from the #2 seed to the #3 seed. Boo hoo. We pushed ourselves from #4 down to #9 for no damn reason at all. I think maybe this team just wants to lose. There's no other explanation. Way to screw over your fans twice in the same season.

The Lakers lose their pick if it is outside of the top 3, so their 5 game winning streak might be more costly than you suggest.

As for the Kings, unless they cut some guys, I was under the impression that they had no space to sign d-league guys.

Also the Kings might be 7th -10th or 4th or 3rd, we don't know at this point.

Finally, I am not sure Minnesota has been actively tanking, it looks like they just can't finish games.

 

[theclash4u5]

It is absolutely unbelievable to me that there are 30 teams in the NBA and the team with the second longest active playoff drought is going to be the one team to take a stand and say "we're above tanking, we're playing our best players no matter what". We just fell 4 spots in the draft in a couple of weeks by beating teams that were trying to lose. Dallas acquired Nerlens Noel at the trade deadline and looked like an up and coming playoff team but then reversed course and benched Seth Curry, Harrison Barnes, Wesley Matthews, Dirk Nowitzki, and Nerlens Noel down the stretch. Phoenix benched Eric Bledsoe at the All-Star break, made Tyson Chandler disappear somehow and even pulled Devin Booker out of a game that didn't actually matter for their lotto seeding all so they could keep the #2 seed. This is the best PG draft in 10 years and we have no PGs signed for next year. It should be a no brainer! Rest everyone, sign d-leaguers to 10 day contracts, make sure you pick in the top 6 so you're guaranteed an elite PG. Nope. We're going to play all of our first round picks right to the end. We're acting like we don't want a top 5 pick, that we'd rather pick 10th where all 5 elite PGs are going to be taken already. Why did you trade Cousins at the trade deadline if you weren't even going to tank?! You don't think you could get a better draft day deal for your first team All-NBA center than Buddy Hield (who looked terrible in New Orleans all year) and the 10th pick in the draft? Seriously?

I was on board for the Cousins trade only because it looked like the strategy might be working and we could end up with two very good players in a stacked draft and another good player next year before we owe our 2019 pick to Philadelphia. But you know what? Eff that mess. We traded a top 5 player in the league for the 10th pick (lotto protected -- so it might not even be that high) and a pretty good rookie and we let so many teams sprint by us in the last 2 weeks of the season that we might just miss out on 8 elite prospects. People talk about the Lakers screwing themselves by winning too many games at the end but seriously they fell from the #2 seed to the #3 seed. Boo hoo. We pushed ourselves from #4 down to #9 for no damn reason at all. I think maybe this team just wants to lose. There's no other explanation. Way to screw over your fans twice in the same season.

I don't blame the players or coaches for trying to win, but Vlade messed up big time. There was no reason why AA and others weren't traded at the deadline for scraps. We should have shut down a player or two for the season earlier as well. Made no sense to win some of those games *COUGH T-WOLVES ON THE ROAD*

 

[Npliam]

What would happen if you guys beat the clippers tomorrow? Anything bad? My team needs your team to win.

 

[parker]

What would happen if you guys beat the clippers tomorrow? Anything bad? My team needs your team to win.

Yes, they go from a tie for 8th to the 9th spot. I don't think they will be winning tomorrow.

 

[hrdboild]

What would happen if you guys beat the clippers tomorrow? Anything bad? My team needs your team to win.

Armageddon

(Technically we would be in a tie for 10th with our pick only top 10 protected this year)

 

[Kingsfan23]

Yes, they go from a tie for 8th to the 9th spot. I don't think they will be winning tomorrow.

They can go to a tie for tenth, and a possible 9% chance of losing the pick, and if that were to happen someone would need to be fired.

I'm going to try to look positively on tonight and say the Knicks would lose to Philly anyway, the Timberwolves don't share our positional needs, and we will win the flip with Dallas if we lose to the Clips and the standings held..

But, I'm in disagreement with how this has been handled by coaching staff and management. Does Joerger understand the concept of a good pick helping the team?

 

[gunks]

I don't blame the players or coaches for trying to win, but Vlade messed up big time. There was no reason why AA and others weren't traded at the deadline for scraps. We should have shut down a player or two for the season earlier as well. Made no sense to win some of those games *COUGH T-WOLVES ON THE ROAD*

I'm kinda done with worrying about lotto position. We can't even suck right.

Big picture though: as long as we have Vivek as owner, there is really no reason to worry about the future. He ****s every good thing up.

So I'm gonna enjoy the present and hope we beat some Clipper *** tomorrow.

 

[Khanh]

Jeez we can't win right and we can't even tank right. What is up with this franchise? We went from a 4-7 pick to what looks like a 7-9 pick now..........

 

[parker]

They can go to a tie for tenth, and a possible 9% chance of losing the pick, and if that were to happen someone would need to be fired.

I'm going to try to look positively on tonight and say the Knicks would lose to Philly anyway, the Timberwolves don't share our positional needs, and we will win the flip with Dallas if we lose to the Clips and the standings held..

But, I'm in disagreement with how this has been handled by coaching staff and management. Does Joerger understand the concept of a good pick helping the team?

Right, with a win against the clippers, they would be tied for the ninth spot with new orleans, with the possibility of ending up in the 10th spot and the further possibility of losing their pick to Chicago.

 

[hrdboild]

The Lakers lose their pick if it is outside of the top 3, so their 5 game winning streak might be more costly than you suggest.

As for the Kings, unless they cut some guys, I was under the impression that they had no space to sign d-league guys.

Also the Kings might be 7th -10th or 4th or 3rd, we don't know at this point.

Finally, I am not sure Minnesota has been actively tanking, it looks like they just can't finish games.

We could have made 2 for 1 trades with all of these players who aren't going to be here next year. The only guys we actually need to keep are Skal, Willie, Buddy, Malachi, PapaG, and maybe Temple for leadership reasons. The rest could have been cut or shuffled off to playoff teams for pennies on the dollar so that we could enlist a tank crew like Dallas has done. This is a billion dollar business, you can't just take chances and hope things will work out. Buddy and Skal looked great in February. Fantastic! Stash them for the future and let the scrubs lose games. No one would have faulted us for tanking like Dallas, Philadelphia, and Phoenix have after we shot ourselves in the foot by unloading DeMarcus for a very questionable below-market-value deal only a year after trading multiple swap rights and unprotected first in an ill-fated win now move. It is quite literally the only strategy that makes any sense from where we are now.

Also, it is literally impossible for us to pick 4th right now. If we move up and Philly doesn't that pick would be #5 and only then if no one else in the bottom 6 moves up and Philly wins the coin flip with Orlando. You're talking micro percentages there. We can't pick 7th either unless Minnesota loses tomorrow or 3 teams in the 5-14 range win the lottery and one of them us is from the 8 or 9 slot. Also micro percentages. So yeah, we can be pretty sure we're picking 8th or 9th barring divine intervention. I haven't done the math but if we're actually sitting at 9th by the end of the season there might be a greater chance that we lose both picks than our odds of picking higher than 7th.

 

[gunks]

#Kangz, fellas.

 

[Kingz19]

They can go to a tie for tenth, and a possible 9% chance of losing the pick, and if that were to happen someone would need to be fired.

I'm going to try to look positively on tonight and say the Knicks would lose to Philly anyway, the Timberwolves don't share our positional needs, and we will win the flip with Dallas if we lose to the Clips and the standings held..

But, I'm in disagreement with how this has been handled by coaching staff and management. Does Joerger understand the concept of a good pick helping the team?

I'm sure he does. Two top 10 picks should help any team if the picks are good picks.

Kings fans should know better than anybody that lottery positioning isn't as important as making the right pick.

Hell, most of our regrets of who the Kings didn't draft came in the range the Kings will have 2 picks in(Curry, Paul George, Thompson, Kawhi, Lillard)

If the draft is as deep as people claim..the Kings are projected to be in a pretty good situation draft night

Obviously I hate to risk losing our pick so I hope we stay below NO but the whole tank business is getting out of hand to where people ignore Kings had been competitive on the strength of 3 rookies, a second year player, and the odd good veteran performance and the history suggesting that the difference between 6-10 is not a franchise player and if it is...recent history says your just likely to land one in the 10 range.

Kings weren't picking under 5 so I was more worried about simply keeping our pick. I didn't really expect New Orleans and Dallas to abandon dignity. Kings have won here and there but it's not like they are tearing it up.

 

[Blob]

They can go to a tie for tenth, and a possible 9% chance of losing the pick, and if that were to happen someone would need to be fired.

I'm going to try to look positively on tonight and say the Knicks would lose to Philly anyway, the Timberwolves don't share our positional needs, and we will win the flip with Dallas if we lose to the Clips and the standings held..

But, I'm in disagreement with how this has been handled by coaching staff and management. Does Joerger understand the concept of a good pick helping the team?

The game I think Joerger screwed up was at Minnesota. We played both our PGs! That one win could cost us TWO FRIGGIN draft slots! From 7th to 9th or worse! That's maddening to me but what can you?! That's Isaac versus I don't know who. I am not going to belabor it but it stings. As far as losing our pick, if we win tomorrow and NOP loses we'd have to lose coin flip and one team from #11 to #14 would have to jump to Top 3. Those odds are 9.4%. The odds before the flip would 4.7% against or 95% of keeping the pick. If we lose coin flip we still have a 90% chance of keeping the pick. Going into draft with 9th and 10th pick I might be of the mindset of packing these picks to get Fox. Unless the Kings are so wowed by Bridges and Ntlinkina and think both will be available..

 

[hrdboild]

I'm sure he does. Two top 10 picks should help any team if the picks are good picks.

Kings fans should know better than anybody that lottery positioning isn't as important as making the right pick.

Hell, most of our regrets of who the Kings didn't draft came in the range the Kings will have 2 picks in(Curry, Paul George, Thompson, Kawhi, Lillard)

If the draft is as deep as people claim..the Kings are projected to be in a pretty good situation draft night

Obviously I hate to risk losing our pick so I hope we stay below NO but the whole tank business is getting out of hand to where people ignore Kings had been competitive on the strength of 3 rookies, a second year player, and the odd good veteran performance and the history suggesting that the difference between 6-10 is not a franchise player and if it is...recent history says your just likely to land one in the 10 range

The difference between 10 more years of lottery hell and a long-awaited return to the playoffs is a franchise player and our odds of landing one just plummeted. I'm not ignoring how competitive we looked with Skal and Buddy leading the way -- that's why we should have benched them when the games became meaningless and our competition wasn't even trying to win. What great accomplishment is it to beat a team who is trying to lose? The question we should be asking is why a successful franchise like Dallas is tanking like no other just to get a chance to maybe pick 7th in this draft and we're gleefully stepping aside and letting them pass us even though they've been to the playoffs 9 times since the last time we lost in the first round and even won a championship one of those years. Don't you think maybe they know something that we don't? Don't you think maybe we should be looking to emulate a team that has missed the playoffs just once in the last 16 seasons instead of moving as fast as we can in the opposite direction? That team signed the free agent I wanted last summer (Harrison Barnes), traded for the player I wanted us to trade for at the deadline (Nerlens Noel), cleaned up our mess by scooping up Seth Curry after we renounced our restricted free agency rights, and now they might pick ahead of us in the draft too. This is why they'll be in the playoffs next season and we'll be aiming for 25 wins.

 

[steelevt]

Right, with a win against the clippers, they would be tied for the ninth spot with new orleans, with the possibility of ending up in the 10th spot and the further possibility of losing their pick to Chicago.

Kings win vs clippers and tie for 9/10 seed with NO. NO wins coin flip and kings get 10th spot. NO wins top pick and a team 11-14 also get top 3 bumping kings out of 10th spot. Is this possible or am I a kings fans always expecting the worse?

 

[HndsmCelt]

There is another scenario. It could well be that Vlade and the rest of the front office assumed that once Rudy was down and Cuz, and Omri were traded all they needed to do make sure that the team only won a handful of games was to cut the last remaining legit SF (Barns). However, the team over performed. Maybe they underestimated the kids, maybe they misjudged the teams grit, who knows? But to be fair if you go to any team in the league and take out the top 2 players, then two of the top rotation players - wiping out an entire position, you would feel pretty confident that this team would be lucky to win a quarter of their remains games. I think if you look back at commentary made just after the trade you would be hard pressed to find very many people who were voicing concern that the Kings might win too many games. In short another view might be that this team, coach included, are a lot better than some might think and they posses a grit and spirit tht just might have a value that can not be measured in ping pong balls. If this crew of kids have shown me nothing else they each seem to make the case that WHERE a team picks may not be as important as WHO they pick and how they develop those picks.

 

[Kingz19]

The difference between 10 more years of lottery hell and a long-awaited return to the playoffs is a franchise player and our odds of landing one just plummeted. I'm not ignoring how competitive we looked with Skal and Buddy leading the way -- that's why we should have benched them when the games became meaningless and our competition wasn't even trying to win. What great accomplishment is it to beat a team who is trying to lose? The question we should be asking is why a successful franchise like Dallas is tanking like no other just to get a chance to maybe pick 7 in this draft and we're gleefully stepping aside and letting them pass us even though they've been to the playoffs 9 times since the last time we lost in the first round and even won a championship one of those years. Don't you think maybe they know something that we don't? Don't you think maybe we should be looking to emulate a team that has missed the playoffs just once in the last 16 seasons instead of moving as fast as we can in the opposite direction? That team signed the free agent I wanted last summer (Harrison Barnes), traded for the player I wanted us to trade for at the deadline (Nerlens Noel), cleaned up our mess by scooping up Seth Curry after we renounced our restricted free agency rights, and now they might pick ahead of us in the draft too. This is why they'll be in the playoffs next season and we'll be aiming for 25 wins.

If Buddy, Papa, and Skal are so good we can't afford to have them on the floor if we want to lose games then maybe our franchise isn't as in bad a spot with top level young players. Maybe all we need is a hit at 9 and 10 and if that does nothing for us...if we're sooo bad we should pick in the top 3 next year.

I also addressed the idea of the franchise player in the 6-13 range in the post you responded to. They're there but they rarely as projected. Look at how most of the drafts from the last 10 years of lottery hell panned out. Franchise players have come out of those drafts but rarely in our franchise player positioning..but mostly in the "these teams didn't tank well" range. The Kings and their roommate Timberwolves have constantly been in this coveted franchise player range of I guess 4-7. In that range it's basically a lottery itself. Kings have nothing to show for the times they tanked well but didn't pick well...maybe we can be the team that picks well now since we don't tank well. I think at the very least, Vlade has a real eye for talent.

Furthermore, I think this draft especially is going to be contingent on making the right picks. If you notice the rankings almost every PG in the draft is in the top 10. So scouts following a PG fad will likely have players with better upside slipping further...like the Euro fad did in the early 2000s. I think it's kind of strange that every PG that declared in either top 10 or second round and the rankings are almost ALL PG and SF. The two most en vogue positions right now....and they're all raw.

Personally..I like the depth of the post top 10 ranks that I'd be tempted to dangle one our top 10s to Portland for two or all of their 3 first rounders. Also, I haven't really heard any one player be hyped as a franchise player..except for Lonzo Ball..by his dad.

 

[Jeremy Fraser]

We traded a top 5 player in the league

You're certainly kidding

 

[kingdivac]

The Lakers lose their pick if it is outside of the top 3, so their 5 game winning streak might be more costly than you suggest.

As for the Kings, unless they cut some guys, I was under the impression that they had no space to sign d-league guys.

Also the Kings might be 7th -10th or 4th or 3rd, we don't know at this point.

Finally, I am not sure Minnesota has been actively tanking, it looks like they just can't finish games.

I dont care about the Lakers - at all. Yes they've screwed themselves some, maybe more so than the Kings.

Kings are now going for a 9/10 scenario - which is ok considering it could be Markennon and Bridges - not ideal but hey, they could've lost 1 of the picks. which is much worse.....losing the 7/8 means a top tier PG may not be available, but who knows. If they pick 9/10 - I might be up for them trading #10 for 2 later 1st round picks if either Markennon or Bridges is gone. I haven't looked at #11-29 prosepcts, but wouldn't mind a trade down, if the Kings like certain players. Who is the next PG down ladder - isn't it the shorty on Kansas? I don't know who else has multiple picks in the draft - it would need to be a multi-team trade then. I only think Fultz is worth trading up for....Ball's defense and shooting concerns me. Fox 3pt shooting concerns me. Smith Jr may not be worth the 2 picks. I dont think the Celtics (or whoever) will trade #1 for #9 and #10 though. I wouldn't have minded Fox or Smith Jr straight up as one of the picks at #7, but that seems unlikely.

 

[Suicide King]

Maybe the perfect storm plays out and both us and the 76ers jump into top 3. Would be nice to see things from the other side of karmic balance for once.

At any rate we have some good pieces and a good coaching staff to go with whatever the next two drafts provide.

 

[hrdboild]

If Buddy, Papa, and Skal are so good we can't afford to have them on the floor if we want to lose games then maybe our franchise isn't as in bad a spot with top level young players. Maybe all we need is a hit at 9 and 10 and if that does nothing for us...if we're sooo bad we should pick in the top 3 next year.

I also addressed the idea of the franchise player in the 6-13 range in the post you responded to. They're there but they rarely as projected. Look at how most of the drafts from the last 10 years of lottery hell panned out. Franchise players have come out of those drafts but rarely in our franchise player positioning..but mostly in the "these teams didn't tank well" range. The Kings and their roommate Timberwolves have constantly been in this coveted franchise player range of I guess 4-7. In that range it's basically a lottery itself. Kings have nothing to show for the times they tanked well but didn't pick well...maybe we can be the team that picks well now since we don't tank well. I think at the very least, Vlade has a real eye for talent.

Furthermore, I think this draft especially is going to be contingent on making the right picks. If you notice the rankings almost every PG in the draft is in the top 10. So scouts following a PG fad will likely have players with better upside slipping further...like the Euro fad did in the early 2000s. I think it's kind of strange that every PG that declared in either top 10 or second round and the rankings are almost ALL PG and SF. The two most en vogue positions right now....and they're all raw.

Personally..I like the depth of the post top 10 ranks that I'd be tempted to dangle one our top 10s to Portland for two or all of their 3 first rounders. Also, I haven't really heard any one player be hyped as a franchise player..except for Lonzo Ball..by his dad.

I guess you've got this all figured out then. We'll see. Optimism can be great when it's productive but if you actually look at the sobering reality of the situation there's plenty to be concerned about. Over the course of the last 15 years I've seen this team go from the toast of the league to a complete joke, analyzing every move in excruciating detail along the way, and it's not getting any funnier. Maybe you haven't been paying attention but the TWolves have two of the last three first overall picks leading their team so it's not like they're mining gold out of the middle ranks. I suppose you could cherry pick the few guys picked at #9 or below who made All-Star teams and say that makes a trend but you're asking a lot of this front office if you expect them to find the one guy that every other team is missing. There are a lot less of these players than you're implying. Not every draft has one. Geoff Petrie found four of them during his tenure (assuming Whiteside makes at least 1 All Star team in the future...) and 3 out of the 4 were traded or released (with no return) before they even reached their potential. Should those even count as wins? Probably not. That's a span of 19 years. 1 big success story of the kind you're expecting in 19 years and that's from a guy with 2 Executive of the Year awards. Pretty thin odds. Hall of Famer Gregg Popovich has 3 in 23 years. Not much better.

And Vlade has proven nothing so far. Okay he grabbed Skal at 28 but he passed on him with 2 picks first. I don't know if you've seen what Timothe Luwawu has done lately but a few of us really wanted him and Vlade passed on him twice too including taking a different guy who plays the same position two picks earlier. Willie has shown us some flashes but it's hard to say he was a better pick than Devin Booker or Myles Turner, both of which were on the board for us and worthy of consideration. Sometimes "making the right pick" just means having better options to choose from. The thing that gets me angry is when people use our poor draft history and then turn it around as an example of why the draft doesn't work when we really just needed to use the picks that we did have more wisely. They get me coming (when I hate the pick on draft day and say we should have taken someone else) and going (when they tell me the next year that having a high pick is a waste of time anyway because the guy we should have taken went lower). I mean it can't be both guys! We were in the right position to make a great pick we just muffed it. That was still half right. And the one comes before the other. All I can tell you is that most years when we pick in the top 7 I've been pissed off that we passed on somebody really great and most years that we've picked at 9 or below I've been pissed off that all the good players were gone by our pick. There's a sweet spot where we want to be and I was perfectly happy with that sweet spot being in the 5-7 range this year. That's high enough to still get somebody really good. It could happen at #9 too but only if other GMs make stupid decisions (which, fortunately, they often do). That's why I'm upset. I had an optimal range in mind and against all odds we've managed to let ourselves slip below it. There is at least one franchise player in this draft, I'm sure of it. I think there's 3 and they're not all going in the top 3 picks either. I just pray that one of them is left by the time we're on the clock.