The 2024 Playoff Chase Thread

[pdxKingsFan]

I'm probably in the minority on this one, but seeing the Kings get demolished and demoralized in the playoffs by a healthy Zion Williamson is a spectacle I'm willing to live with in 2024 if that pushes Monte McNair toward solving the PF situation right away instead of kicking it down the road another year. Our long-term goals and short-term goals shouldn't conflict with each other. Yes of course we want to win but I don't need to see a playoff series win this year to mark "progress" so much as I just want the team working toward eventually winning a championship within this current "Fox and Ox" window of opportunity. Small steps backward can still lead to good things.

I do think we've found a formula that works over the past few weeks with Fox, Ellis, Murray, and Sabonis. All four of those guys provide value on both sides of the floor. Monk should be part of that core group too but that depends on how much money he's willing to give up to stay in Sacramento and how badly he wants a starting role. Now that we're in that 40-50 win range in back-to-back seasons, we can feel reasonably safe that we have the beginnings of a winning formula. Now the question ultimately becomes "what needs to happen to make the jump from playoff participant to actual contender"?

I see the PF situation as the one that is dire and needs to be rectified while Fox and Sabonis are in their prime. I hope Monk re-signs, I hope Kev rebounds, but the NBA reality is that position is a dime a dozen. Look at the draft mocks for PF prospects. It is uninspiring, especially once you pencil in Domas and Keegan as their frontcourt mate. Meanwhile it's stocked with guards and small 3s.

 

[captain bill]

I doubt it - Williamson is a Kings wrecking-ball for which they have no answer.

We couldn't even handle Val with Zion out

 

[NewArena]

Kings are better now than they were the last time they took on the Pelicans (especially on defense) so i actually don't doubt the games will be a lot more competitive going forward

 

[sactowndog]

I see the PF situation as the one that is dire and needs to be rectified while Fox and Sabonis are in their prime. I hope Monk re-signs, I hope Kev rebounds, but the NBA reality is that position is a dime a dozen. Look at the draft mocks for PF prospects. It is uninspiring, especially once you pencil in Domas and Keegan as their frontcourt mate. Meanwhile it's stocked with guards and small 3s.

We largely agree though I would play Keegan at 4 and a Kessler who can shoot at 3.

 

[Caccia]

We largely agree though I would play Keegan at 4 and a Kessler who can shoot at 3.

I may not understand your meaning entirely, but Kessler Edwards, since the All-Star break, leads the team in three-point shooting at 46.2%. Keon Ellis is next, at 43.4%.

 

[kingdivac]

I'm probably in the minority on this one, but seeing the Kings get demolished and demoralized in the playoffs by a healthy Zion Williamson is a spectacle I'm willing to live with in 2024 if that pushes Monte McNair toward solving the PF situation right away instead of kicking it down the road another year. Our long-term goals and short-term goals shouldn't conflict with each other. Yes of course we want to win but I don't need to see a playoff series win this year to mark "progress" so much as I just want the team working toward eventually winning a championship within this current "Fox and Ox" window of opportunity. Small steps backward can still lead to good things.

I do think we've found a formula that works over the past few weeks with Fox, Ellis, Murray, and Sabonis. All four of those guys provide value on both sides of the floor. Monk should be part of that core group too but that depends on how much money he's willing to give up to stay in Sacramento and how badly he wants a starting role. Now that we're in that 40-50 win range in back-to-back seasons, we can feel reasonably safe that we have the beginnings of a winning formula. Now the question ultimately becomes "what needs to happen to make the jump from playoff participant to actual contender"?

I have no idea, but I I'm not sure this team graduates to the contender level with this group anyway.....there was a .slight regression this year, now locked with Monk's injury. Looks like the Kings may have to play the Pelicans in the Play-in - lambs to the slaughter.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

We largely agree though I would play Keegan at 4 and a Kessler who can shoot at 3.

That strikes me as highly matchup dependent. We might have to do that now but I'd be horrified if that was how we went into next season.

 

[sactowndog]

I may not understand your meaning entirely, but Kessler Edwards, since the All-Star break, leads the team in three-point shooting at 46.2%. Keon Ellis is next, at 43.4%.

I agree which would indicate he should play more. A Fox, Ellis, Edwards, Murray line-up can work with Sabonis at center. I am assuming Mike doesn’t play him because he believes he can’t shoot versus just being stubborn.

 

[sactowndog]

That strikes me as highly matchup dependent. We might have to do that now but I'd be horrified if that was how we went into next season.

Why? Kessler is an excellent defender and if he can hit the three would be an OG type 3 and D player. And yes if a team is bigger you pivot and put Keegan at 3 and Barnes or Lyles at 4.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1774891989168799858

In case you’re wondering why the Kings are losing in the cornered animal playoff race rankings

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Why? Kessler is an excellent defender and if he can hit the three would be an OG type 3 and D player. And yes if a team is bigger you pivot and put Keegan at 3 and Barnes or Lyles at 4.

Sure we get burned by teams that have some scrub shoot 75% from 3 but the teams killing us over the last two seasons have generally had a more old school two big-man approach so I've never been convinced that we should play Keegan as our 4 and get an OG type vs. getting a second big that covers for Domas's shortcomings.

 

[iowamcnabb]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1774891989168799858

In case you’re wondering why the Kings are losing in the cornered animal playoff race rankings

Grayson might help block some Monk destinations. Toronto and Orlando could make some sense

 

[sactowndog]

Sure we get burned by teams that have some scrub shoot 75% from 3 but the teams killing us over the last two seasons have generally had a more old school two big-man approach so I've never been convinced that we should play Keegan as our 4 and get an OG type vs. getting a second big that covers for Domas's shortcomings.

I would argue we lose to teams with long athletic wings as we have no means to stop them. Keegan and Kessler give us two long athletic wings.

 

[Tetsujin]

Grayson might help block some Monk destinations. Toronto and Orlando could make some sense

Toronto really stopped making sense as a Monk fit when they got Quickley in the OG trade. If the Fox/Monk backcourt is potentially too short to work as a starting unit, I don’t see how Malik can start next to a guy who is even a little smaller than Fox is.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I would argue we lose to teams with long athletic wings as we have no means to stop them. Keegan and Kessler give us two long athletic wings.

And then when a team has an inside power game we have no counter. I'd argue the reason those teams beat us is more a function of Huerter and Monk and trying to outshoot those teams than an actual roster imbalance, which we absolutely have in the front court when it comes to having a genuine interior presence on defense who can also provide the shooting threat Domas lacks.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Toronto really stopped making sense as a Monk fit when they got Quickley in the OG trade. If the Fox/Monk backcourt is potentially too short to work as a starting unit, I don’t see how Malik can start next to a guy who is even a little smaller than Fox is.

Does Toronto ever poach guys on $$$? I feel like the tax laws and currency exchange have always been a barrier to them acquiring talent.

This article from last summer is wildly uninspiring as a Sac fan living in Portland who regularly complains about the shortcomings of those two cities in the FA market.
https://www.thestar.com/sports/rapt...cle_39cf02a1-4964-5360-8dfb-1581bec89246.html

 

[sactowndog]

And then when a team has an inside power game we have no counter. I'd argue the reason those teams beat us is more a function of Huerter and Monk and trying to outshoot those teams than an actual roster imbalance, which we absolutely have in the front court when it comes to having a genuine interior presence on defense who can also provide the shooting threat Domas lacks.

Domas is a pretty strong dude and Barnes is also. We don’t usually lose to teams like Denver because Jokic can’t over power Domas. We also have Trey and Sasha so not sure who you are thinking overpowers us. If it’s Zion no one matches up well with an O Tackle that jumps like a receiver.

 

[SacTownKid]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1774891989168799858

In case you’re wondering why the Kings are losing in the cornered animal playoff race rankings

Unless they implode emotionally or health wise they have another year or two as a trio to get it right. Then Booker might hit the market, who knows.

 

[Tetsujin]

Unless they implode emotionally or health wise they have another year or two as a trio to get it right. Then Booker might hit the market, who knows.

The issue though is that they’re just going to keep bleeding supporting cast guys without being able to replace them thanks to having no picks, no guys on bird rights, and no cap room and they chose to build a trio of three of the more injury prone guys in the league, one of whom is going to be 36 at the start of the season. This is actually the healthiest KD and Beal have been in years and they’re still duking it out for a chance to stay out of the play-ins.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Domas is a pretty strong dude and Barnes is also. We don’t usually lose to teams like Denver because Jokic can’t over power Domas. We also have Trey and Sasha so not sure who you are thinking overpowers us. If it’s Zion no one matches up well with an O Tackle that jumps like a receiver.

Zion obviously. Minny gave us fits inside last year. Memphis when they had Adams and JJJ. Any team that has a mobile center basically, or a PF that bangs. You can even put Golden State last year in the playoffs there even though they were playing a small ball version of that, they basically played physical inside and we only had Domas.

I guess with no Monk and no Kevin we will see how it works, I just think long term we need a true 4 not a pure 3 and D to make Keegan the full time 4.

 

[hrdboild]

I have no idea, but I I'm not sure this team graduates to the contender level with this group anyway.....there was a .slight regression this year, now locked with Monk's injury. Looks like the Kings may have to play the Pelicans in the Play-in - lambs to the slaughter.

Right but if we look at our playoff situation on a longer timeline, it's not that important that we don't have all the right pieces to match up with our peers this year. What's important is that the front office has correctly diagnosed what our weaknesses are and that they're already working on solutions which won't cost us any of our core players. We had such a big jump from awful to respectable last year that some of the off-season decision making may have been Monte and his crew wanting more data before pursuing significant roster moves. So this was a wait and see year and a prove-it year for our 5 starters.

Even if it feels like we've taken a small step back this year, we've made enough progress on defense that I see a clearer path toward overall improvement from where we are now (around 10-15 in Offensive Rating and around 10-20 in Defensive Rating) than where we were last season (1st in Offensive Rating and 25th in Defensive Rating). You may disagree with that assessment but based on our past history, I see any incremental improvement on defense as a much tougher hill for this franchise to climb than getting more points on the board.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1775321524582658503

Dude couldn’t hurt his knee before playing the Kings?

 

[pdxKingsFan]

11 teams out of 15 are above .500, I am not even sure we've taken a step back. This feels unprecedented. Especially when you consider WE ARE 12 GAMES OVER .500 and in 8th.

Last year arguably we punched above our weight. This year we might be punching slightly below, but more or less we're on the same W/L track. I don't know what the margin for error on 82 games is, but +/- 3 games is probably showing remarkable consistency for a team that isn't always consistent night to night.

 

[hrdboild]

Zion obviously. Minny gave us fits inside last year. Memphis when they had Adams and JJJ. Any team that has a mobile center basically, or a PF that bangs. You can even put Golden State last year in the playoffs there even though they were playing a small ball version of that, they basically played physical inside and we only had Domas.

I guess with no Monk and no Kevin we will see how it works, I just think long term we need a true 4 not a pure 3 and D to make Keegan the full time 4.

If I understand you correctly, I agree with this. Keegan has looked really good at his size and mobility against SG, SFs, and some small ball mobile PFs in the current smallball NBA meta. But pushing him to the 4 full-time (particularly against teams who play a traditional 2 big man lineup) diminishes his size advantage and forces us to go even smaller on switches. It also puts Domas in unfavorable situations defensively where he's likely to draw more fouls and that gets us into trouble since our backup Cs can't even come close to replacing everything Domas does for our offense.

I also think this season has shown us that putting 4 shooters around Domas is not a panacea and owing to the wild swings inherent in a "bombs away" approach to offense, that strategy should probably be demoted from our primary plan to more of a plan B behind a more balanced lineup with an additional big man either lurking in the dunker's spot or trading off with Domas between the high and low post.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

11 teams out of 15 are above .500, I am not even sure we've taken a step back. This feels unprecedented. Especially when you consider WE ARE 12 GAMES OVER .500 and in 8th.

Last year arguably we punched above our weight. This year we might be punching slightly below, but more or less we're on the same W/L track. I don't know what the margin for error on 82 games is, but +/- 3 games is probably showing remarkable consistency for a team that isn't always consistent night to night.

We're at .581 right now. We finished at .585 last year, for reference.

 

[Tetsujin]

Warriors and Mavs tied at half

 

[megapoxy]

Warriors and Mavs tied at half

Mavs 4/8 free throws in the middle of 4th quarter... when not facing the Kings

 

[Tetsujin]

If Klay misses these free throws he truly is washed.

 

[Tetsujin]

WARRIORS WIN! Kings still in the race for the 6th seed!

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1775379409706623096