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It's the summer of 2007, which means it's time to start thinking about free agents. Oh, not this year's free agents -- I took a look at them in March, and our Chris Sheridan will have much more on that gang early next week.
No, it's time to look ahead a year.
2008 is the backdrop for the 2007 free-agent season, because some teams will be using the potential free-agent crop a year from now to guide decisions on how they manage their cap space this summer. And with Washington's Gilbert Arenas announcing recently that he plans to opt out of his contract next summer, the '08 free-agent season is unofficially underway already.
Plus, next year's class is one that -- stop me if you heard this before -- could be the best ever, provided nobody signs an extension this summer and everybody who can opt out of their contract does so.
Of course, this field inevitably will be whittled down severely by the time July of 2008 rolls around. This is particularly true in the case of players on their rookie contracts who are up for extensions this offseason.
Thus, don't expect Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson, Luol Deng, Andris Biedrins, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, Josh Childress, Nenad Krstic, Jameer Nelson, Kevin Martin, Delonte West or Devin Harris to be changing teams next summer -- all of those players figure to ink deals with their current teams between now and the end of October to keep them in place for a half-decade or so.
But even without those players on the market, next summer's crop is still potentially awesome. The players essentially break into four different groups -- let's take a look at each.
Group I: The "Big 10" ETO candidates
These are the players with an "early termination option" in their contract, meaning they can opt to forgo the final year(s) of their deals and instead become unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2008. In most years there are two or three big stars who have this option -- in 2008 there are 10, as the provisions of recent collective bargaining agreements kick in big-time. Here's the star-studded lineup:
1. Tim Duncan, Spurs -- Keep dreaming. Duncan can opt out after the upcoming season, but the Spurs are going to sign him to an extension this summer that keeps him in San Antonio until at least 2011. Besides, who are we kidding here? Duncan already had the opportunity to leave once and decided to stay put instead.
He's an icon in San Antonio and prefers the laid-back pace there to a bigger city. Plus he loves playing for Gregg Popovich. He's not going anywhere.
2. Kevin Garnett, Timberwolves -- Garnett's option will certainly be invoked if the Wolves don't deal him in the next 12 months, but it seems the more likely scenario is that he'll be dealt to a new team and then inked to an extension upon arrival.
Obviously, his new employers need to make sure he's up for this beforehand; already, his people have signaled to the Celtics that it's a no-go. But the sheer relief of leaving the Wolves' dire situation should make him more than happy to sign on the dotted line if dealt to one of his preapproved destinations.
3. Elton Brand, Clippers -- The Clippers would be wise to get Brand locked up to an extension. But "Clippers" and "wise" have rarely been used in the same sentence, so stay tuned. Plus, Clippers owner Donald Sterling could revert to his cheapskate ways at the snap of a finger if he decides that it's better to win 30 games with a low payroll than 40 games with a midsized one.
With Brand, Corey Maggette, Sam Cassell and Shaun Livingston all potentially coming off the books in '08, he could go back to being the league's reigning slumlord in a nanosecond.
4. Gilbert Arenas, Wizards -- Unlike the top three guys, it doesn't make sense for Arenas to extend his deal because he's not making the maximum, and thus he can get better bucks as an unrestricted free agent. That's why he went ahead and told everyone he'll be opting out of his deal in the offseason.
Presuming the top three guys all sign extensions, Arenas will be the league's most coveted free agent next summer, but at the moment all signs point to him returning to Washington.
5. Shawn Marion, Suns -- Mentioned in trade rumors nearly as often as Garnett, The Matrix is another player who would be in line for an extension this offseason and could opt out next summer. His deal is a little trickier, however, because he'll make $17.8 million in 2008-09, and there's a good chance he might have to accept less if he became a free agent.
Thus, much like Antawn Jamison and Mike Bibby this year, he might decide to take the bird in hand and play out the final year of his deal.
6. Jermaine O'Neal, Pacers -- A similar, albeit more dramatic, situation to Marion's -- both in terms of trade rumors and salary.
Jermaine is pushing $20 million per annum, and his offensive performance and durability have been in decline the past couple seasons (though not his defense, which was spectacular this season). As a result, he's likely to play his deal out through 2008-09 unless he totally blows up this year.
7. Allen Iverson, Nuggets -- Iverson isn't the best player on this list, but in terms of gate and merchandise he's pure gold. That's why he's more likely than the others to opt out -- surely somebody would gamble on his ability to draw in hordes of customers.
The interesting part comes from Denver's end -- is it willing to fork out for an extension (and likely incur more luxury tax bills) in order to keep him in the Rockies a couple more years?
8. Baron Davis, Warriors -- Davis represents a difficult calculation all around. On the one hand he's as good as any point guard in the game when he's healthy and motivated. On the other hand those two events don't coincide often. When they do, as in the Warriors' playoff run, it's amazing to watch, but that doesn't mean somebody should throw a max deal his way.
All of which explains why Davis, like a few of the guys above, may decide to stand pat and play out the last year of his deal.
9. Corey Maggette, Clippers -- The second-biggest name in the "certain free agent" crowd, Maggette has bristled under Mike Dunleavy's yoke in L.A., and he doesn't make enough for an extension to make sense anyway.
The fact that he can easily be lured to another destination should make him a major target next summer -- if he hasn't already been traded by then.
10. Ron Artest, Kings -- Talk about a roll of the dice. I have no idea what other teams would bid for Artest; I imagine several would stay away even if the price was one peso. That said, there's no denying his talent, and one has to think there's a team out there with enough spine and desperation to give it a shot.
The Kings don't seem to be giving any potential suitors the impression that they will stand in their way. It makes sense for Artest to opt out too, as his contract is a pittance relative to other players of his caliber.
Other notables: In addition to the 10 stars above, five other players have ETOs in their contracts -- Raef LaFrentz of the Blazers, Juwan Howard of the Timberwolves, Kenny Thomas of the Kings, and Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis of the Knicks -- but they aren't likely to be factors in free agency since they'd be fools to give up the final years of their excessive contracts.
Meanwhile, here are five to watch with player options: Stromile Swift of the Grizzlies, Justin Reed of the Rockets, Rasho Nesterovic of the Raptors, Keith Bogans of the Magic, and most notably Trevor Ariza also of the Magic. Ariza's current salary is way below market and he's likely to earn a much bigger payday in the summer of 2008, especially if he can take over as a starter for the possibly departing Grant Hill.
It's the summer of 2007, which means it's time to start thinking about free agents. Oh, not this year's free agents -- I took a look at them in March, and our Chris Sheridan will have much more on that gang early next week.
No, it's time to look ahead a year.
2008 is the backdrop for the 2007 free-agent season, because some teams will be using the potential free-agent crop a year from now to guide decisions on how they manage their cap space this summer. And with Washington's Gilbert Arenas announcing recently that he plans to opt out of his contract next summer, the '08 free-agent season is unofficially underway already.
Plus, next year's class is one that -- stop me if you heard this before -- could be the best ever, provided nobody signs an extension this summer and everybody who can opt out of their contract does so.
Of course, this field inevitably will be whittled down severely by the time July of 2008 rolls around. This is particularly true in the case of players on their rookie contracts who are up for extensions this offseason.
Thus, don't expect Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson, Luol Deng, Andris Biedrins, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, Josh Childress, Nenad Krstic, Jameer Nelson, Kevin Martin, Delonte West or Devin Harris to be changing teams next summer -- all of those players figure to ink deals with their current teams between now and the end of October to keep them in place for a half-decade or so.
But even without those players on the market, next summer's crop is still potentially awesome. The players essentially break into four different groups -- let's take a look at each.
Group I: The "Big 10" ETO candidates
These are the players with an "early termination option" in their contract, meaning they can opt to forgo the final year(s) of their deals and instead become unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2008. In most years there are two or three big stars who have this option -- in 2008 there are 10, as the provisions of recent collective bargaining agreements kick in big-time. Here's the star-studded lineup:
1. Tim Duncan, Spurs -- Keep dreaming. Duncan can opt out after the upcoming season, but the Spurs are going to sign him to an extension this summer that keeps him in San Antonio until at least 2011. Besides, who are we kidding here? Duncan already had the opportunity to leave once and decided to stay put instead.
He's an icon in San Antonio and prefers the laid-back pace there to a bigger city. Plus he loves playing for Gregg Popovich. He's not going anywhere.
2. Kevin Garnett, Timberwolves -- Garnett's option will certainly be invoked if the Wolves don't deal him in the next 12 months, but it seems the more likely scenario is that he'll be dealt to a new team and then inked to an extension upon arrival.
Obviously, his new employers need to make sure he's up for this beforehand; already, his people have signaled to the Celtics that it's a no-go. But the sheer relief of leaving the Wolves' dire situation should make him more than happy to sign on the dotted line if dealt to one of his preapproved destinations.
3. Elton Brand, Clippers -- The Clippers would be wise to get Brand locked up to an extension. But "Clippers" and "wise" have rarely been used in the same sentence, so stay tuned. Plus, Clippers owner Donald Sterling could revert to his cheapskate ways at the snap of a finger if he decides that it's better to win 30 games with a low payroll than 40 games with a midsized one.
With Brand, Corey Maggette, Sam Cassell and Shaun Livingston all potentially coming off the books in '08, he could go back to being the league's reigning slumlord in a nanosecond.
4. Gilbert Arenas, Wizards -- Unlike the top three guys, it doesn't make sense for Arenas to extend his deal because he's not making the maximum, and thus he can get better bucks as an unrestricted free agent. That's why he went ahead and told everyone he'll be opting out of his deal in the offseason.
Presuming the top three guys all sign extensions, Arenas will be the league's most coveted free agent next summer, but at the moment all signs point to him returning to Washington.
5. Shawn Marion, Suns -- Mentioned in trade rumors nearly as often as Garnett, The Matrix is another player who would be in line for an extension this offseason and could opt out next summer. His deal is a little trickier, however, because he'll make $17.8 million in 2008-09, and there's a good chance he might have to accept less if he became a free agent.
Thus, much like Antawn Jamison and Mike Bibby this year, he might decide to take the bird in hand and play out the final year of his deal.
6. Jermaine O'Neal, Pacers -- A similar, albeit more dramatic, situation to Marion's -- both in terms of trade rumors and salary.
Jermaine is pushing $20 million per annum, and his offensive performance and durability have been in decline the past couple seasons (though not his defense, which was spectacular this season). As a result, he's likely to play his deal out through 2008-09 unless he totally blows up this year.
7. Allen Iverson, Nuggets -- Iverson isn't the best player on this list, but in terms of gate and merchandise he's pure gold. That's why he's more likely than the others to opt out -- surely somebody would gamble on his ability to draw in hordes of customers.
The interesting part comes from Denver's end -- is it willing to fork out for an extension (and likely incur more luxury tax bills) in order to keep him in the Rockies a couple more years?
8. Baron Davis, Warriors -- Davis represents a difficult calculation all around. On the one hand he's as good as any point guard in the game when he's healthy and motivated. On the other hand those two events don't coincide often. When they do, as in the Warriors' playoff run, it's amazing to watch, but that doesn't mean somebody should throw a max deal his way.
All of which explains why Davis, like a few of the guys above, may decide to stand pat and play out the last year of his deal.
9. Corey Maggette, Clippers -- The second-biggest name in the "certain free agent" crowd, Maggette has bristled under Mike Dunleavy's yoke in L.A., and he doesn't make enough for an extension to make sense anyway.
The fact that he can easily be lured to another destination should make him a major target next summer -- if he hasn't already been traded by then.
10. Ron Artest, Kings -- Talk about a roll of the dice. I have no idea what other teams would bid for Artest; I imagine several would stay away even if the price was one peso. That said, there's no denying his talent, and one has to think there's a team out there with enough spine and desperation to give it a shot.
The Kings don't seem to be giving any potential suitors the impression that they will stand in their way. It makes sense for Artest to opt out too, as his contract is a pittance relative to other players of his caliber.
Other notables: In addition to the 10 stars above, five other players have ETOs in their contracts -- Raef LaFrentz of the Blazers, Juwan Howard of the Timberwolves, Kenny Thomas of the Kings, and Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis of the Knicks -- but they aren't likely to be factors in free agency since they'd be fools to give up the final years of their excessive contracts.
Meanwhile, here are five to watch with player options: Stromile Swift of the Grizzlies, Justin Reed of the Rockets, Rasho Nesterovic of the Raptors, Keith Bogans of the Magic, and most notably Trevor Ariza also of the Magic. Ariza's current salary is way below market and he's likely to earn a much bigger payday in the summer of 2008, especially if he can take over as a starter for the possibly departing Grant Hill.
