Stat Time: The Numbers Through 21 Games

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
So here we go -- 21 games in, a quarter of the way through the season, time for the annual how we doing stats wrap. And what do the numbers suggest? That despite all the extra scrap, despite targeting tough guys in the draft, our biggest jump this year is not on defense, but on offense. In fact the numbers would suggest that the best way to improve your offense is to go out and acquire a bunch of rookies, scrappers and castoffs, then injure your top 2 returning scorers. Numbers are cool: :)

Offense
Pts: 104.36 (NBA Rank: 6th)
FG%: .475 (NBA Rank: 7th)
3pt%: .386 (NBA Rank: 3rd)
FT%: .723 (NBA Rank: 28th)
Asts: 20.17 (NBA Rank: 17th)
TOs: 15.85 (NBA Rank: 24th)

Defense
Opp Pts: 105.57 (NBA Rank: 26th)
Opp FG%: .474 (NBA Rank: 24th)
Opp 3pt%: .364 (NBA Rank: 22nd)
Reb Margin: +1.9 (NBA Rank: 10th)
Blocks/Gm: 4.14 (NBA Rank: 25th)
Steals/Gm: 7.38 (NBA Rank: 16th)
Fouls/Gm: 22.85 (NBA Rank: 25th)

1) Points
Ironically despite all the extra scrap and hustle, in traditional Kings fashion our early season success has mostly been about the offense. We're 6th in the league in scoring at 104.36ppg, and since Kevin went down we're scoring at a higher clip still at 105.29ppg. Kevin obviously was scoring 30 a night in those first 5 games, but since then only Tyreke (#19 in NBA at 20.2ppg) has been consistently amongst the league leaders (21.7ppg since Kevin went down).

2) Field Goal %
We've been scoring all those points thanks to being one of the best shooting teams in the league. As a team we're shooting .475, good for 7th in the league. And that is after we started the season shooting 40.5%, 37.5%, 44.6%, 48.4% and 41.7% through that first 5 game stretch. And we're doing it without any particularly efficient inside scorers. Nobody is in the Top 20 in the league. The key has been our extrememly efficient perimeter people. In fact amongst qualified players Beno Udrih leads all NBA guards in FG% (.546).

3) 3pt Shooting %
And here is the pinnacle of what we have done well in the early season. And really, the more things change the more they stay the same, no? This year we have been scorching hot from 3pt land, shooting .386, good for 3rd in the NBA. And amongst qualified players Omri (#3 at .511), Kevin (yes he chucked enough in 5 games to qualify) (#13 at .447), Beno tied for #14 at .444), and Donte (#19 at .432) are all in the Top 20 in the NBA. Omri's number is ridiculous, but even more amazing might be Donte's number after we watched him not be able to hit the broadside of a barn last year (shot .326, and .260 from 3pt land).

4) Free Throw %
Well, it should come as no surprise to anyone who has watched the debacle at the line the last week that we really are just that bad. .723 as a team, ranekd 28th in the NBA. But the amazing thing is that we could be that bad at the line while being #6 in scoring, #7 in shooting, and #3 in 3pt shooting. But now standing alone at the line we can't shoot? Note that if he qualified Martin would be tied for 16th in the league at .857, but that otherwise obviously nobody we haver ranks very high. As an aside, if it feels like other teams just won't miss from the line against us? Its because they won't. Compounding our own suck we have either gotten unlucky or we are just fouling the wrong people, because on the season other teams are shooting an ungodly .789 from the FT line against us, which is the highest Opp FT% in the whole league. Ouch.

5) Assists
One of the few statistical categories where we are middle of the pack, we've been decent this year at 20.17, good for 17th in the league. Its a low number considering all the points we score, but some of that may be accounted for by our leading scorer also being the guy who handles the ball -- thus far this season Reke has needed an assist on only 22% of his scores. No King is in the top 20 in assists, but Reke is just off the pace at 5.1 (#22). And if you make it Ast/48 and leave the filters off Sergio comes in at #10 in the league at 10.0 ast/48.

6) Turnovers
Not surprisingly for a young team, we're down near the bottom of the league in TOs (bottom of the league meaning lots of TOs of course). We have averaged 15.85 TOs, 24th in the NBA. Not surprisingly as the main ballhandler and a rookie Tyreke leads the "charge" with 3.0/gm, 19th worst in the league. That's not really as bad as it sounds though, given that the 18 guys ahead of him include Monta, Nash, LeBron, Westbrook, Arenas, Parker, Durant, Deron, Wade, Flynn, Iggy, Jennings, Rose and Melo. Kind of the cost of doing business as a major PG/star.

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7) Opponent Points, FG%, 3pt%
Might as well group these, because we just flat out suck in all areas. 26th in Pts Against, 24th in FG% Against, and 22nd in 3pt% Against. Fairly remarkable given how much more effort we seem to be seeing after last year's debacle. But now rather than no effort, we just have no experience. To be fair it should be noted that bad as these numbers are it still represents a 4ppg improvement from the complete collapse last season. As with the squad last year though, if these numbers do not improve, neither will we.

8) Rebound Margin
We still are not a great rebounding team, but now we're at least above average at a +1.9 reb.gm, good for 10th in the league. Its been much remarked on, and it should be, but as of yet its pretty isolated as basically the only thing we do well on defense. Nobody on the team breaks the Top 20, but Jason checks in at a solid 9.0 a game, good for #22 in the league (as an aside, in most years 9.0 would be Top 20, but this season is featuring more double digit rebounders than I can ever recall -- no fewer than 11 guys are in double figures). If you want to really stretch it, go for rebs/48 and remove the qualified filters, then Brockman is 7th in the league per minute, and Kenny is #20. Why our stubby guys outrebound our two trees I will leave up to you to figure out.

9) Blocks per Game
And yes, amazingly enough, as it has been since the Late Cretaceous period, we suck at blocking shots. This year its 4.14 a game, 25th in the league. But hey, as Jerry will tell you, blocked shots are overrated! Who needs 'em! I am sure after all its got nothing to do with us sucking defensively yet again and being unable to stop penetration. Really. When not drinking the kool aid you may note that we have all of one player even averaging 1 per game, and that is noted super intimdator Spencer at a mighty 1.1 per game. Emeka Okafor (2.0, 10th in the league) anyone? P.S. as an aside, yes, our guys really do get their shots blocked as much as you think they do -- Oppposing teams block 5.85 per game against us, 6th most in the league.

10) Steals per Game
And here is the other thing we are just mediocre at -- 7.38, good for 16th in the league. I remember under Musselman this was the only thing we did do on defense. Flopped on offense, gambled on defense (+ had Ron). Now we're scrappy but only Reke (a solid 1.5stls) of the current players has much natural thieving ability (maybe Kenny if you count him). Should be noted that if he qualifed, Kevin was averaging 2.0 stls/gm in his first 5 games, good for 9th in the league. Small sample size of course, and it should be noted that Kevin was also avergaing 41.7 min/gm, which would be #1 in the league.

11) Fouls per Game
Normally I would not bother with this stat, but its hurt us afew times so I thoguht I would take a look. And as you might expect for a young team, its not good either: 22.85 per game, 25th in the league. And of course our crown prince of hackwork remians JT, who is making a serious run at back to back NBA hacking crowns -- he leads the league again with 4.1 fls/gm. The good news is that if you take off the filters and make it fls per 48 that JT drops down all the way to #38, at 5.8 fls/48 (which in theory means he could play 48 minutes every night without fouling out!* And if you buy that, I've got this bridge...). The bad news is that not a single one of the 37 players who hack more than Jason are allowed to play 30 min or more. They are all role/platoon players, and stay pinned to the pine by their hacking. Jason might want to take that as a warning and shape up.

* Note that this is not really true -- the only way to average more than 5 fouls a game is to foul out some number of times, and if oyu averaged 5.8 it means you have to foul out 4 times for every one time you only got 5 fls. [/stats nerd off]
 
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That is so weird... you'd think a bunch of scrappers and role players led by a rookie PG would be better at D than O... and we're not just good on O, we're one of the better teams at it. Weird.
 
So your saying we really need Kevin Martin back? Kidding. Kidding.

Scrappers and all the numbers are pretty much what you would expect from a team this young. It takes time to learn how to play good team defense. We have some good individual defenders, but I really think the Miami game was a perfect example of where this team is at. We scored seeming at will for large stretches of the game and got a few stops that allowed us to make runs, but just had too many defensive breakdowns that let the Heat score easy buckets. Then againm 75% of our minutes went to players 25 and younger, so I am not really too worried about it at this point. The players seem to care about D, so the learning will come.
 
Not surprised by the numbers, offensively or defensively... Don't see how anyone here would be. Though the freethrow shooting is kinda weird since we have such a good shooting team.
 
That is so weird... you'd think a bunch of scrappers and role players led by a rookie PG would be better at D than O... and we're not just good on O, we're one of the better teams at it. Weird.

One factor is that of playing Greene out of position. He is a strong defender, and could eventually be outstanding coming from the weakside on help defense, but he can't be any of that playing the two guard. Until Martin comes back at the two and hopefully Greene takes over at the 3, the defense is going to be sacrificed in favor of getting favorable matchups for Tyreke. Now one could argue that Martin isn't a great defender at the two, but I do think Martin can play better D against two guards than Donte.
 
Bricklayer said:
6) Turnovers
Not surprisingly for a young team, we're down near the bottom of the league in TOs (bottom of the league meaning lots of TOs of course). We have averaged 15.85 TOs, 24th in the NBA. Not surprisingly as the main ballhandler and a rookie Tyreke leads the "charge" with 3.0/gm, 19th worst in the league. That's not really as bad as it sounds though, given that the 18 guys ahead of him include Monta, Nash, LeBron, Westbrook, Arenas, Parker, Durant, Deron, Wade, Flynn, Iggy, Jennings, Rose and Melo. Kind of the cost of doing business as a major PG/star.

I've mentioned this before but I think a team needs to have a certain number of turnovers to be successful. In doing the statistics for the prediction game back when we were really good, we averaged something in the low double-digits at our best. I don't know what, if anything, it means other than that it's an indication the ball is at least moving - well, except in J-Will's case when it might well have been moving towards a fan's head in the third row.

;)
 
Here's a few more Advanced Stats:

Opp FG% by Shot Location
====================
*** At Rim(dunks, layup, tip ins) ***
27th 66% (18/gm ouch!)

*** less than 10 ft ***
3rd 38%

*** 10-16 ft ***
6th 36%

*** 16-23ft ***
24th 41%

*** 3pt ***
22nd 37%

Notable Opp/Positional Stats
============================
(All stats "per Game" and some are rounded up)

Point Guards
-----------
***FG%***
Kings 49%
Opp 42%

***3pt%***
Kings 41%
Opp 32%

***FT%***
Kings 74%
Opp 81%

Shooting Guards
---------------
***Pts***
Kings 27
Opp 22

***Reb***
Kings 8
Opp 5

***3pt%***
Kings 37%
Opp 33%

Small Forwards
---------------
***Personal Fouls***
Kings 5
Opp 3

***3pt%***
Kings 42%
Opp 40%

***FT%***
Kings 56%
Opp 81%

Power Forwards
---------------
***PT's***
Kings 17
Opp 23

***Off Reb***
Kings 4.2
Opp 2.9

***FG%***
Kings 49%
Opp 53%

***FT%***
Kings 64%
Opp 74%

Centers
--------
***Reb***
Kings 12
Opp 14

***Blk***
Kings 1.6
Opp 2.4

***FT%***
Kings 76%
Opp 73%

Some %'s were lopsided but did not make my list because of how few shots were taken.
 
I've mentioned this before but I think a team needs to have a certain number of turnovers to be successful. In doing the statistics for the prediction game back when we were really good, we averaged something in the low double-digits at our best. I don't know what, if anything, it means other than that it's an indication the ball is at least moving - well, except in J-Will's case when it might well have been moving towards a fan's head in the third row.

;)

It's nice to keep the fans involved in the game. :)

It does seem surprising that the defense doesn't rank much better than it did last year considering the difference in wins -- but the improvement is certainly there. I looked at the numbers today so they're a little different than the ones brick posted, but comparing last year to this year the biggest shifts are in point differential, Fg%, and Opponent's 3p%:

2009/2010
Points: 105.1
Points Allowed: 105.3
Differential: -0.2
Fg%: .478 OppFg%: .472
3p%: .381 Opp3p%: .365
TO: 15.8 Forced TO: 14.2

2008/2009
Points: 100.6
Points Allowed: 109.3
Differential: -8.8
Fg%: .447 OppFg%: .483
3p%: .368 Opp3p%: .406
TO: 15.4 Forced TO: 14.4

Relative to the rest of the league we're still a poor defensive team, but the percentages allowed last year were ridiculously bad so we have improved in that regard. We've also gotten a lot more efficient on offense. The turnovers are about the same and the free throw percentage is holding us back, but the .447 mark last year ranked 25th in the league and our current mark of .478 ranks 5th. That's a huge jump. So combine the more efficient scoring with competent (though still bad) defense and we're keeping most games a lot closer than we did last year. With a differential of -0.2 we should expect to be at .500 or close to it which we are. Last year's mark of -8.8 will land you at or near last place almost every year.

I still can't explain how any team allows their opponents to shoot over 40% from behind the 3 point line, that's just historically bad, but Philadelphia has somehow managed to beat that with .417% allowed so far this year. Yikes.

Oh yeah and I left out rebounding differential:

2009/2010: +2.1 (8th)
2008/2009: -4.9 (29th)

We're currently out-rebounding our opponents more often than not with the 8th best differential in the league. Last year's mark of -4.9 was second only to Golden State's -5.1 for worst in the league. So our overall rebounding improved from 29th in the league last year to 8th in the league so far this year. Even if the turnovers and opponent's fg% haven't improved much, we've already come a long way from last year's team which seemingly couldn't do anything right. We're actually guarding the three point line, we're doing well on the boards, and we're scoring baskets efficiently. Golden State, by the way, is currently at -9.4 this year which, if they keep it up, might be an all-time record.

(All these stats are from ESPN.com)
 
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