Sorting out the pick situation (split from game thread)
- Thread starter Kingz19
- Start date
SLAB
Hall of Famer
If 10, do we lose it?
82% to pick 8th or better
SLAB
Hall of Famer
I'm still so confused about our pick situation.
Earlier in this thread someone said there's 4% chance we lose NOLA's pick and 0.1% chance we lose our protected one.
All I need to know, is that true? I don't care about the number we might pick. That's up to the stupid ping-pong balls. I just want to know we have a pretty good shot of keeping both picks.
Earlier in this thread someone said there's 4% chance we lose NOLA's pick and 0.1% chance we lose our protected one.
All I need to know, is that true? I don't care about the number we might pick. That's up to the stupid ping-pong balls. I just want to know we have a pretty good shot of keeping both picks.
Blob
Starter
No. The Pelicans secured the 10th worst record by winning tonight. There's a 87% chance that pick is #10 (ours), 9% that pick is #11 (ours) and 4% of Top 3 (theirs).
The biggest news between now and lottery May 16 will be whether Bridges declares. Whether or not we are interested, he's projected to go around #10. If nothing else it will increase the trade value if he declares.
We lose NO pick if they win top 3 lottery .... chances 4%
We lose our pick if 3 teams leap frog us .... chances practically 0 (less than 0.01%)
Blob
Starter
I am not sure how he calculated 0.1%. I think that's wrong. But there's a 100% chance we keep our pick.
There's still a 4% chance the Pelicans jump to Top 3.
SLAB
Hall of Famer
Okay, that's what I needed to know! That post a few posts up threw me off.
Blob
Starter
OK, I see now. I stand corrected. The best odds three teams jump us (and push us to 11th pick thereby conveying to Bulls) would be 0.057 (9th worst Top 3 odds) * 0.04 (10th) * 0.029 (11th) = 0.000066 or 0.0066% In this case we would lose our pick and the Pelicans pick. But I think I like our odds.
Blob
Starter
Here's some more odds. If not interested in nitty gritty, all you need to know is odds we keep both picks and they are between 8 and 11 are 85.5%. Here is more of a breakdown:
Two Picks:
Odds we pick 8th and 10th >> 63%
Odds we pick 9th and 10th >> 14.6%
Odds we pick 8th and 11th >> 6.4%
Odds we pick 9th and 11th >> 1.5%
Odds we move up (possible swap) and 10th >> 8.7% (best case scenario)
Odds we move up (possible swap) and 11th >> 1%
One Pick:
Odds NOP move up and 8th >> 2.9%
Odds NOP move up and 9th >> 0.7%
No Picks
Teams 9, 10 (NOP) and 11 move Top 3: >> 0.001%
=============================
Total = 98.8%
I did not include the 0.8% chance our pick is 10th (we keep) and the 0.2% odds the NOP is 12th (we keep). This is the other 1%. That is is 99.8%. Don't ask me where the other 0.2% went.
Also:
SAC pick: 89.2% chance of 8th or 9th.
SAC pick: 10% chance of move up and swap (?)
NOP pick: 95.9% chance of 10th or 11th (ours)
NOP pick: 4% chance of move up and lose (theirs)
Two Picks:
Odds we pick 8th and 10th >> 63%
Odds we pick 9th and 10th >> 14.6%
Odds we pick 8th and 11th >> 6.4%
Odds we pick 9th and 11th >> 1.5%
Odds we move up (possible swap) and 10th >> 8.7% (best case scenario)
Odds we move up (possible swap) and 11th >> 1%
One Pick:
Odds NOP move up and 8th >> 2.9%
Odds NOP move up and 9th >> 0.7%
No Picks
Teams 9, 10 (NOP) and 11 move Top 3: >> 0.001%
=============================
Total = 98.8%
I did not include the 0.8% chance our pick is 10th (we keep) and the 0.2% odds the NOP is 12th (we keep). This is the other 1%. That is is 99.8%. Don't ask me where the other 0.2% went.
Also:
SAC pick: 89.2% chance of 8th or 9th.
SAC pick: 10% chance of move up and swap (?)
NOP pick: 95.9% chance of 10th or 11th (ours)
NOP pick: 4% chance of move up and lose (theirs)
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I'm not sure where/how you got your numbers, but my calculations don't match yours. To wit:
Count on this:
8 & 10: 72.5%
These could reasonably happen:
9 & 11: 8.1%
9 & 10: 5.3%
5 & 10: 3.5%
9 only: 3.4%
6 & 10: 3.1%
3 & 10: 1.7%
These are pretty long shots:
2 & 10: 0.7%
6 & 11: 0.4%
10 only: 0.3%
10 & 11: 0.3%
7 & 10: 0.3%
10 & 12: 0.2%
6 only: 0.2%
7 & 11: 0.1%
Don't worry about it:
7 only: 0.05%
3 & 11: 0.04%
2 & 11: 0.02%
3 only: 0.02%
2 only: 0.01%
So you're saying there's a chance!:
No Picks: 0.005%
7 & 12: 0.004%
12 only: 0.003%
13 only: 0.0007%
Some summary stuff:
Chance we have two picks: 96%
Chance we have one pick: 4%
Chance we have no picks: 0.005%
Chance we have a top-three pick: 2.5%
Chance we lose the Pelicans' pick: 4%
Chance we lose our own pick: 0.008%
Chance we move up and swap: 10%
Chance we do better than 8 & 10: 9.8% (but it kind of depends on how you define "better"...e.g., is 7 & 11 better than 8 & 10?)
Odds we keep both picks and they are between 8-11: 86.2%
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bajaden
Hall of Famer
LPKingsFan
All-Star
Some sites like tankathon show the Kings having a 10% chance of moving up to the top 3 - but that fails to account for the potential pick swap, if Sac jumps up but Philly does not. Hence the odds are lower, as Capt shows. Do I have that right?
Unfortunately, no chance of moving up with the Pelicans pick. Ugh.
Unfortunately, no chance of moving up with the Pelicans pick. Ugh.
Kingster
Hall of Famer
I think I need a drink......
Buck up, man! If you want to go on a binge, just wait and see the calculations that Capt. Factorial did to arrive at those conclusions!
gunks
Hall of Famer
Isn't everyone saying the draft is 11 players deep anyhow? With a very deep "tier 2" of 8 players or so?
Perhaps with some wheeling and dealing, Vlade can still nab us one of Fox or Isaac (who draft express has us nabbing at pick 8 anyhow). I actually expect him to try to get us more picks, if anything.
It would have been nice to pick at 5 and 7, or whatever we were two weeks ago. But we'll still get some good players.
I actually trust Vlade when it comes to talent evaluation. Just keep Vivek the hell away from the war room.
Perhaps with some wheeling and dealing, Vlade can still nab us one of Fox or Isaac (who draft express has us nabbing at pick 8 anyhow). I actually expect him to try to get us more picks, if anything.
It would have been nice to pick at 5 and 7, or whatever we were two weeks ago. But we'll still get some good players.
I actually trust Vlade when it comes to talent evaluation. Just keep Vivek the hell away from the war room.
One of those 11 (Miles Bridges) seems to be withdrawing from the draft, but we are still in a good position (as long as Pels do not go up).
Have been saying this for a little while - get more horses in the race - don't mind going from 2 to 4 players, and letting them battle royal it for roster spots.
If Capt. Factorial says it, you can pretty much take it to the bank. Those are the odds. Dallas pulling through with that last win granting us sole ownership of the 8 seed was a pleasant surprise. It makes losing our pick to Chicago very unlikely.
Section 101
All-Star
So your saying there is a chance!
bajaden
Hall of Famer
Buck up, man! If you want to go on a binge, just wait and see the calculations that Capt. Factorial did to arrive at those conclusions!
Oh, believe me, I know... We've had a few conversations at summer league that I'm still trying to figure out what he said.
The Effort Police
Starter
It's eleven deep if you think Miles Bridges is declaring (he isn't) and you like Markkanen (I don't). In my case, it's nine deep so that leaves us with the familiar problem of hoping someone ahead of us reaches and our guys aren't being the ones reaching. But with Vivek in charge, prepare for Luke Kennard.
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