- Thread starter Kingz19
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Earlier in this thread someone said there's 4% chance we lose NOLA's pick and 0.1% chance we lose our protected one.

All I need to know, is that true? I don't care about the number we might pick. That's up to the stupid ping-pong balls. I just want to know we have a pretty good shot of keeping both picks.

If 10, do we lose it?

The biggest news between now and lottery May 16 will be whether Bridges declares. Whether or not we are interested, he's projected to go around #10. If nothing else it will increase the trade value if he declares.

Earlier in this thread someone said there's 4% chance we lose NOLA's pick and 0.1% chance we lose our protected one.

All I need to know, is that true? I don't care about the number we might pick. That's up to the stupid ping-pong balls. I just want to know we have a pretty good shot of keeping both picks.

We lose our pick if 3 teams leap frog us .... chances practically 0 (less than 0.01%)

Earlier in this thread someone said there's 4% chance we lose NOLA's pick and 0.1% chance we lose our protected one.

All I need to know, is that true? I don't care about the number we might pick. That's up to the stupid ping-pong balls. I just want to know we have a pretty good shot of keeping both picks.

We lose NO pick if they win top 3 lottery .... chances 4%

We lose our pick if 3 teams leap frog us .... chances practically 0 (less than 0.01%)

We lose our pick if 3 teams leap frog us .... chances practically 0 (less than 0.01%)

Here's some more odds. If not interested in nitty gritty, all you need to know is odds we keep both picks and they are between 8 and 11 are **85.5%**. Here is more of a breakdown:

**Two Picks:**

Odds we pick 8th and 10th >> 63%

Odds we pick 9th and 10th >> 14.6%

Odds we pick 8th and 11th >> 6.4%

Odds we pick 9th and 11th >> 1.5%

Odds we move up (possible swap) and 10th >> 8.7% (best case scenario)

Odds we move up (possible swap) and 11th >> 1%

**One Pick:**

Odds NOP move up and 8th >> 2.9%

Odds NOP move up and 9th >> 0.7%

**No Picks**

Teams 9, 10 (NOP) and 11 move Top 3: >> 0.001%

=============================

Total = 98.8%

I did not include the 0.8% chance our pick is 10th (we keep) and the 0.2% odds the NOP is 12th (we keep). This is the other 1%. That is is 99.8%. Don't ask me where the other 0.2% went.

Also:

SAC pick: 89.2% chance of 8th or 9th.

SAC pick: 10% chance of move up and swap (?)

NOP pick: 95.9% chance of 10th or 11th (ours)

NOP pick: 4% chance of move up and lose (theirs)

Odds we pick 8th and 10th >> 63%

Odds we pick 9th and 10th >> 14.6%

Odds we pick 8th and 11th >> 6.4%

Odds we pick 9th and 11th >> 1.5%

Odds we move up (possible swap) and 10th >> 8.7% (best case scenario)

Odds we move up (possible swap) and 11th >> 1%

Odds NOP move up and 8th >> 2.9%

Odds NOP move up and 9th >> 0.7%

Teams 9, 10 (NOP) and 11 move Top 3: >> 0.001%

=============================

Total = 98.8%

I did not include the 0.8% chance our pick is 10th (we keep) and the 0.2% odds the NOP is 12th (we keep). This is the other 1%. That is is 99.8%. Don't ask me where the other 0.2% went.

Also:

SAC pick: 89.2% chance of 8th or 9th.

SAC pick: 10% chance of move up and swap (?)

NOP pick: 95.9% chance of 10th or 11th (ours)

NOP pick: 4% chance of move up and lose (theirs)

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Here's some more odds. If not interested in nitty gritty, all you need to know is odds we keep both picks and they are between 8 and 11 are **85.5%**. Here is more of a breakdown:

8 & 10: 72.5%

9 & 11: 8.1%

9 & 10: 5.3%

5 & 10: 3.5%

9 only: 3.4%

6 & 10: 3.1%

3 & 10: 1.7%

2 & 10: 0.7%

6 & 11: 0.4%

10 only: 0.3%

10 & 11: 0.3%

7 & 10: 0.3%

10 & 12: 0.2%

6 only: 0.2%

7 & 11: 0.1%

7 only: 0.05%

3 & 11: 0.04%

2 & 11: 0.02%

3 only: 0.02%

2 only: 0.01%

No Picks: 0.005%

7 & 12: 0.004%

12 only: 0.003%

13 only: 0.0007%

Chance we have two picks: 96%

Chance we have one pick: 4%

Chance we have no picks: 0.005%

Chance we have a top-three pick: 2.5%

Chance we lose the Pelicans' pick: 4%

Chance we lose our own pick: 0.008%

Chance we move up and swap: 10%

Chance we do better than 8 & 10: 9.8% (but it kind of depends on how you define "better"...e.g., is 7 & 11 better than 8 & 10?)

Odds we keep both picks and they are between 8-11: 86.2%

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I'm not sure where/how you got your numbers, but my calculations don't match yours. To wit:

**Count on this:**

8 & 10: 72.5%

**These could reasonably happen:**

9 & 11: 8.1%

9 & 10: 5.3%

5 & 10: 3.5%

9 only: 3.4%

6 & 10: 3.1%

3 & 10: 1.7%

**These are pretty long shots:**

2 & 10: 0.7%

6 & 11: 0.4%

10 only: 0.3%

10 & 11: 0.3%

7 & 10: 0.3%

10 & 12: 0.2%

6 only: 0.2%

7 & 11: 0.1%

**Don't worry about it:**

7 only: 0.05%

3 & 11: 0.04%

2 & 11: 0.02%

3 only: 0.02%

2 only: 0.01%

**Really don't worry about it:**

No Picks: 0.005%

7 & 12: 0.004%

12 only: 0.003%

13 only: 0.0007%

**Some summary stuff:**

Chance we have two picks: 96%

Chance we have one pick: 4%

Chance we have no picks: 0.005%

Chance we have a top-three pick: 2.5%

Chance we lose the Pelicans' pick: 4%

Chance we lose our own pick: 0.008%

Chance we move up and swap: 10%

Chance we do better than 8 & 10: 9.8% (but it kind of depends on how you define "better"...e.g., is 7 & 11 better than 8 & 10?)

Odds we keep both picks and they are between 8-11: 86.2%

8 & 10: 72.5%

9 & 11: 8.1%

9 & 10: 5.3%

5 & 10: 3.5%

9 only: 3.4%

6 & 10: 3.1%

3 & 10: 1.7%

2 & 10: 0.7%

6 & 11: 0.4%

10 only: 0.3%

10 & 11: 0.3%

7 & 10: 0.3%

10 & 12: 0.2%

6 only: 0.2%

7 & 11: 0.1%

7 only: 0.05%

3 & 11: 0.04%

2 & 11: 0.02%

3 only: 0.02%

2 only: 0.01%

No Picks: 0.005%

7 & 12: 0.004%

12 only: 0.003%

13 only: 0.0007%

Chance we have two picks: 96%

Chance we have one pick: 4%

Chance we have no picks: 0.005%

Chance we have a top-three pick: 2.5%

Chance we lose the Pelicans' pick: 4%

Chance we lose our own pick: 0.008%

Chance we move up and swap: 10%

Chance we do better than 8 & 10: 9.8% (but it kind of depends on how you define "better"...e.g., is 7 & 11 better than 8 & 10?)

Odds we keep both picks and they are between 8-11: 86.2%

Unfortunately, no chance of moving up with the Pelicans pick. Ugh.

Perhaps with some wheeling and dealing, Vlade can still nab us one of Fox or Isaac (who draft express has us nabbing at pick 8 anyhow). I actually expect him to try to get us more picks, if anything.

It would have been nice to pick at 5 and 7, or whatever we were two weeks ago. But we'll still get some good players.

I actually trust Vlade when it comes to talent evaluation. Just keep Vivek the hell away from the war room.

Perhaps with some wheeling and dealing, Vlade can still nab us one of Fox or Isaac (who draft express has us nabbing at pick 8 anyhow). I actually expect him to try to get us more picks, if anything.

It would have been nice to pick at 5 and 7, or whatever we were two weeks ago. But we'll still get some good players.

I actually trust Vlade when it comes to talent evaluation. Just keep Vivek the hell away from the war room.

Perhaps with some wheeling and dealing, Vlade can still nab us one of Fox or Isaac (who draft express has us nabbing at pick 8 anyhow). I actually expect him to try to get us more picks, if anything.

It would have been nice to pick at 5 and 7, or whatever we were two weeks ago. But we'll still get some good players.

I actually trust Vlade when it comes to talent evaluation. Just keep Vivek the hell away from the war room.

Unfortunately, no chance of moving up with the Pelicans pick. Ugh.

Perhaps with some wheeling and dealing, Vlade can still nab us one of Fox or Isaac (who draft express has us nabbing at pick 8 anyhow). I actually expect him to try to get us more picks, if anything.

It would have been nice to pick at 5 and 7, or whatever we were two weeks ago. But we'll still get some good players.

I actually trust Vlade when it comes to talent evaluation. Just keep Vivek the hell away from the war room.