So are we tanking? Is it a bad thing?
- Thread starter datamanwes
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That nails it. There are other reasons but I don't think I've heard this one before. It may be the most important factor.
same exact thing i was thinking when i saw it
sure they weren't going to make the playoffs this year. but only cause the west is stacked and the same 8 teams from last year will be there this year, just in different seeds.
a .500 record though was definitely doable. that's where the Pelicans are right now and i think we had a better team when Malone was there
sure they weren't going to make the playoffs this year. but only cause the west is stacked and the same 8 teams from last year will be there this year, just in different seeds.
a .500 record though was definitely doable. that's where the Pelicans are right now and i think we had a better team when Malone was there
I for one think our Model should not be GS or OKC or even the Spurs, doing what they did seems to hard to replicate on the stage we are now. imo are model should be Portland- they had a beast big in LMA on a bad team and they turned it around. they did so by getting some good role-players and (and thats the hard to replicate part) drafting Lilard. finding guys like Lilard aint easy but we can sure use another productive player and this team is not that far off:
the starting 5 of DC-Ben-Gay-JT-Cousins were GREAT to start the season. our bench situation on the wings is OK with Casspi, D-will and hopefully a better Stauskas.
if we could draft a good player (or trade our pick for one) on Center (great this year) or PG (not a very good crop) we could be in the running for a playoff spot for a very long time (considering that in that situation our core will be very young).
the starting 5 of DC-Ben-Gay-JT-Cousins were GREAT to start the season. our bench situation on the wings is OK with Casspi, D-will and hopefully a better Stauskas.
if we could draft a good player (or trade our pick for one) on Center (great this year) or PG (not a very good crop) we could be in the running for a playoff spot for a very long time (considering that in that situation our core will be very young).
Ariza played for the Hornets back when Paul was on the roster, then went to the Wizards in free agency. I brought him up precisely because he was with the team before, though at the time he hadn't figured out that he was a role player and insisted on jacking bad contested long 2's off the dribble instead of being a 3 point specialist like he is now.
You're correct. I was thinking of the wrong team. Al-Farouq Aminu was the guy who left the Pelicans this year.
Ariza is a 3&D guy and had a tough time finding out his role.
I think of the Pelicans ever get a hold of a 3&D type of player, they would be a great team.
However, I think the Pelicans have other problems that are preventing them from taking the next step. Their lineups probably need a shakeup right now.
Ariza is a 3&D guy and had a tough time finding out his role.
I think of the Pelicans ever get a hold of a 3&D type of player, they would be a great team.
However, I think the Pelicans have other problems that are preventing them from taking the next step. Their lineups probably need a shakeup right now.
Yep. If they had any way to unload one of Gordon or Evans plus Austin Rivers for a real SF, that would do the trick. Their front court is great, their backcourt is mostly pretty good. They have too many cooks in the kitchen when it comes to ballhandling duties and Monty Williams, but otherwise they are a playoff team, guaranteed.
Back to the question at hand, the Kings have 14 wins currently. The Suns are last in the west at 55% win rate. Assuming that they maintain current win% or are replaced with a team that maintains a similar win% the 8th seed will end up winning 45 games this season. In order to overtake the 8th seed, the Kings will need to win 66% of all games from this point forward. There are currently 10 teams in the league with 66% or better records. Unlikely, but not outside the realm of possibility.
The problem, then, is OKC. I would be shocked if the Thunder do not overtake the Suns by the all star break and finish with a 50 win season. Those extra five wins mean that the Kings would need to win 75% of all remaining games. That means that we would need to have a GSW or Portland type win record in order to have a chance at the 8th seed in the West. The likelihood of that happening is vanishingly slim.
So the question of "to tank or not to tank" is really a question of whether you value your protected pick owed to Chicago more than wasting a year of you franchise center's career and tens of millions of dollars by sabotaging the rest of the season. If you do decide that the draft pick is that important, you have to maintain at least the 10th worst record in the league (we are currently 11th worst). Ideally you go for 7th worst or lower because, lottery. Currently Orlando has the 7th worst record in the league with a 35% win rate. In order to overtake Orlando in the race to the bottom, the Kings would need to lose 70% of all remaining games. We may have too much raw talent to be capable of that at this point.
In sum, we are extremely unlikely to make the playoffs at this point. We are probably also talented enough to win 40-60% of our remaining games and lose this year's pick to Chicago. There is no good answer here, though the Golden State method of trading away talent for injured assets in the hope of making the playoffs next year might be the best of all bad options. You absolutely have to have buy in from Cousins and Gay for that to work out long-term, though.
The problem, then, is OKC. I would be shocked if the Thunder do not overtake the Suns by the all star break and finish with a 50 win season. Those extra five wins mean that the Kings would need to win 75% of all remaining games. That means that we would need to have a GSW or Portland type win record in order to have a chance at the 8th seed in the West. The likelihood of that happening is vanishingly slim.
So the question of "to tank or not to tank" is really a question of whether you value your protected pick owed to Chicago more than wasting a year of you franchise center's career and tens of millions of dollars by sabotaging the rest of the season. If you do decide that the draft pick is that important, you have to maintain at least the 10th worst record in the league (we are currently 11th worst). Ideally you go for 7th worst or lower because, lottery. Currently Orlando has the 7th worst record in the league with a 35% win rate. In order to overtake Orlando in the race to the bottom, the Kings would need to lose 70% of all remaining games. We may have too much raw talent to be capable of that at this point.
In sum, we are extremely unlikely to make the playoffs at this point. We are probably also talented enough to win 40-60% of our remaining games and lose this year's pick to Chicago. There is no good answer here, though the Golden State method of trading away talent for injured assets in the hope of making the playoffs next year might be the best of all bad options. You absolutely have to have buy in from Cousins and Gay for that to work out long-term, though.
After thinking over the PDA conference yesterday, I think the ONLY reasonable explanation is a tank.
Hadlowe laid it out perfectly:
1- we were most likely not going to make the playoffs with Malone. After the opening stretch, we had a shot. After DMC went down, we had none.
2- DMC back with Malone would likely get us back on a winning pace, but with OKC playing great, and our already pretty deep hole, we would still be a long shot to make the playoffs.
Agreed. How do you fix this? Fire the coach and let chaos take over. Bottom-7 record is now attainable.
Let's not forget how often PDA references the Arena and building something great for Sacramento. My feeling on the pulse of the city is that people still don't really care too much about the team right now. Having a contender in 2016 is what really matters, and if the FO decides that it means tanking this season for one more top-10 pick to develop well, that's a reasonable decision to make.
PDA hinted that he gave Gay and Cousins a heads-up. If they know we're tanking, they really don't have a choice but to wait and see how the situation looks next year. They can keep cashing those 8-figure checks in the meantime.
Finally, could "stylistic differences" have been a euphemism for Malone not endorsing the tank? I think that's a very real possibility that hasn't been discussed much around here (and that we will never get leaks about from the FO).
Hadlowe laid it out perfectly:
1- we were most likely not going to make the playoffs with Malone. After the opening stretch, we had a shot. After DMC went down, we had none.
2- DMC back with Malone would likely get us back on a winning pace, but with OKC playing great, and our already pretty deep hole, we would still be a long shot to make the playoffs.
Agreed. How do you fix this? Fire the coach and let chaos take over. Bottom-7 record is now attainable.
Let's not forget how often PDA references the Arena and building something great for Sacramento. My feeling on the pulse of the city is that people still don't really care too much about the team right now. Having a contender in 2016 is what really matters, and if the FO decides that it means tanking this season for one more top-10 pick to develop well, that's a reasonable decision to make.
PDA hinted that he gave Gay and Cousins a heads-up. If they know we're tanking, they really don't have a choice but to wait and see how the situation looks next year. They can keep cashing those 8-figure checks in the meantime.
Finally, could "stylistic differences" have been a euphemism for Malone not endorsing the tank? I think that's a very real possibility that hasn't been discussed much around here (and that we will never get leaks about from the FO).
We are not tanking. Tanking is when you intentionally set up your team where the players can still give good effort and grow, but you aren't going to win many games to chase a high draft pick. This is losing on purpose trying for a greater good.
Our front office tried to rush winning and screwed up the chemistry of the team, leading to loses and poor effort. This was unintentional by the front office and not for the greater good. We hurriedly turned over the entire roster and spent a whole year trying to prop up the locker room and DMC. It would be a horrible idea to throw the locker room and DMC back into a moody mess seeking to hold onto our pick.
Gotta love Kings fans pushing the tanking idea. Glasses always half full. The team accidentally annihilated this season and many of our past gain, and yet some fans are like "Yep. All part of the plan."
Our front office tried to rush winning and screwed up the chemistry of the team, leading to loses and poor effort. This was unintentional by the front office and not for the greater good. We hurriedly turned over the entire roster and spent a whole year trying to prop up the locker room and DMC. It would be a horrible idea to throw the locker room and DMC back into a moody mess seeking to hold onto our pick.
Gotta love Kings fans pushing the tanking idea. Glasses always half full. The team accidentally annihilated this season and many of our past gain, and yet some fans are like "Yep. All part of the plan."
So, PDA was trying to land a core of DMC, Gay, Rondo, and Josh Smith to chase the playoffs this year. But, a month later, when it became clear that his offers for Rondo and Smith weren't going to come together and Gay was extended, the team was willing to throw out season ticket renewals and team chemistry to chase the 9th or 10th pick in the 2015 draft?
I think he's bad at his job ... but I don't think he's that bad at his job!
I think he's bad at his job ... but I don't think he's that bad at his job!
I'll admit I havent read through this thread just yet, but I do honestly believe we are tanking. In past years I woudl have said no way, but I cant shake the feeling.
If I remember correctly, PDA was talking about our roster yesterday and talked about how we had young players when they got here, but now DeMarcus is matured, we traded a lot of our roster, brought in veterans, etc. I dont remember the exact phrasing, but it left me feeling like he wanted some youth. The only way we can get that youth is if we keep our pick this year.
And with his insistence on talking about putting a good product in the arena, I can imagine they would look at the draft as a viable way to get cheap, young talent.
Instead of winning now and competing for the 8 spot and losing out on talented youth, they'd rather throw this season away, hope we get a good draft pick this season, mix that in with Ben and hopefully an improved Nik, and they have their young, 'exciting' team for 2016.
I definitely think this is a crafted tank job.
Just my 2 cents.
If I remember correctly, PDA was talking about our roster yesterday and talked about how we had young players when they got here, but now DeMarcus is matured, we traded a lot of our roster, brought in veterans, etc. I dont remember the exact phrasing, but it left me feeling like he wanted some youth. The only way we can get that youth is if we keep our pick this year.
And with his insistence on talking about putting a good product in the arena, I can imagine they would look at the draft as a viable way to get cheap, young talent.
Instead of winning now and competing for the 8 spot and losing out on talented youth, they'd rather throw this season away, hope we get a good draft pick this season, mix that in with Ben and hopefully an improved Nik, and they have their young, 'exciting' team for 2016.
I definitely think this is a crafted tank job.
Just my 2 cents.
Most constant out of PDA mouth of late (other than, "I'm not an idiot") is harping on Kings going to a new arena. Such obsession makes me think FO is obsessed with insuring team that moves in for 2016-17 NBA season is one that will be ascending not descending, as confident playoff contender. Next two years leading up to new arena opening can only spell one word - T A N K. Anything other than such calculated, fingers crossed strategy would prove without question dude is an idiot. And if not purposefully tanking then it's laid out covertly in such way to insure it does happen.
