Should Monte be the GM next year?

[Section 101]

Unfortunately, the ONLY way we keep our pick now is to lose in the Play-in and then beat the astronomical odds and win the lottery and land in the top 4. The Kings have a 2.4% chance of lucking into a top 4 pick if they lose in the play-in.

If they would had Lin yesterday, they would have tied for #12-14 with a shot to keep their pick outright and an improve chance to jump into the top 4 at 4.8%. Plus, we still would of had home court for the play in game on Wednesday

I guess the Kings can make all this draft pick talk moot by just winning the next two play-in games and making the playoffs.

Then it goes to coin flips between the 3 teams for the order. So 33% chance of getting the 12th.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Unfortunately, the ONLY way we keep our pick now is to lose in the Play-in and then beat the astronomical odds and win the lottery and land in the top 4. The Kings have a 2.4% chance of lucking into a top 4 pick if they lose in the play-in.

If they would had Lin yesterday, they would have tied for #12-14 with a shot to keep their pick outright and an improve chance to jump into the top 4 at 4.8%. Plus, we still would of had home court for the play in game on Wednesday

I guess the Kings can make all this draft pick talk moot by just winning the next two play-in games and making the playoffs.

Technically, there is still a pathway for us to get #12.

1) Lose to Dallas in 9/10 game
2) Dallas beats 7/8 winner to make the 8 seed
3) Loser of 7/8 Eastern Conference game also loses to 9/10 winner
3a) If team from 3) is Orlando, we are #12 pre-lottery
3b) If team from 3) is Atlanta, we need to further win a coin toss to be #12 pre-lottery

But if any of 1) to 3) doesn't happen, we are 13/14/out of lottery.

 

[Padrino]

The pick is going to convey either this off-season or next. Better it conveys now so that all future Kings first rounders are unencumbered, especially since the Kings are not short on rotation-level talent.

 

[Tetsujin]

If we lose the pick fire his stanking behind.

Unless we somehow land one of the top two picks, this really ain’t the worst draft to not have a first round pick in.

 

[Tetsujin]

The pick is going to convey either this off-season or next. Better it conveys now so that all future Kings first rounders are unencumbered, especially since the Kings are not short on rotation-level talent.

Yeah. The Kings might be lacking a true number one right now when Zach isn’t on one of his heaters but this is really the first time since the glory years that the Kings rotation legitimately goes ten deep when everyone is healthy.

 

[New Era]

We are either going to lose the play-in game, get super lucky and land the #1 pick (Cooper Flagg) or we will win the NBA championship. Either way, great outcome for us.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

The pick is going to convey either this off-season or next. Better it conveys now so that all future Kings first rounders are unencumbered, especially since the Kings are not short on rotation-level talent.

I'm not excited about anyone in the draft outside the top of the class I don't get why so many people think we need this pick. Everyone is downgrading this to an average class with a top two.

 

[SacTownKid]

I'm not excited about anyone in the draft outside the top of the class I don't get why so many people think we need this pick. Everyone is downgrading this to an average class with a top two.

Definitely some solid prospects, but can't miss? No guarantees at all. Carter Bryant kind of climbing into the 1st potentially is a bummer. I was hoping he'd be one of those guys that slips through the cracks. Ah well.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Definitely some solid prospects, but can't miss? No guarantees at all. Carter Bryant kind of climbing into the 1st potentially is a bummer. I was hoping he'd be one of those guys that slips through the cracks. Ah well.

its looking like slim pickings in the second round. There are probably 8-10 guys who would have declared and stayed in the draft a few years ago that are now going to return to school thanks to the NIL. The good news is those guys will all be in next years draft and the Kings have 2 second rounders including that Charlotte pick. If we need to pivot, we could be in a position to grab 3 really good prospects next year.

 

[Tetsujin]

Definitely some solid prospects, but can't miss? No guarantees at all. Carter Bryant kind of climbing into the 1st potentially is a bummer. I was hoping he'd be one of those guys that slips through the cracks. Ah well.

Especially at the range that the Kings pick is going to be this year, this class is heavy with big prospects (both straight up bigs and Trey Lyles style tweeners) which the Kings absolutely don’t need as currently constructed with Domas and Jonas eating all the minutes there and Isaac Jones already occupying the developmental tweeter big role. The true big Kings need of primary ball handler/true shot creator wing prospects in the late lotto and below range are lacking to say the least unless you’re one of the weirdos convinced that Jeremiah Fears is going to magically figure it out or Jase Richardson somehow lasts til that range and I’m not as high on both of those guys as I am on Devin.

 

[sono]

Nope, I don’t like his guard heavy roster approach, not to mention when your franchise center is undersized. He could be not in full control of the office, instead a confident GM could have persuaded his vision.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Definitely some solid prospects, but can't miss? No guarantees at all. Carter Bryant kind of climbing into the 1st potentially is a bummer. I was hoping he'd be one of those guys that slips through the cracks. Ah well.

If he doesn't have a guaranteed first he stays at Arizona.

 

[serbiangoat]

The make or break move was the DDR signing and it didn't pan out leading to Fox bailing , Brown firing and Keegans offensive potential being held back and a sub 500.record, it was not the right move in terms of fit.

 

[hrdboild]

Well, it sortof depends. If he brings back this same roster for next season than my vote changes to "No, get him out of here". If he actually does the heavy lifting needed to clear out some salary cap waste and get this team out of the late-lottery hell they're destined to spend the next few years in than my vote is to keep him around.

 

[Caccia]

Here is what writers for the Thunder have to say about the Kings, ranked fourth and last among potential opponents:

"In a season that's felt like a decade, the Kings played their season opener with a different head coach and All-Star-esque guard combo than it did in their season finale. Mike Brown and De'Aaron Fox were recast for Doug Christie and Zach LaVine. Talk about a downgrade.

In typical Kings fashion, ownership refuses to concede an insurmountable situation. They zombied through the second half of the season with a Chicago Bulls reunion of LaVine and DeMar DeRozan. Meanwhile, Domantas Sabonis has dealt with injuries.

The Kings' Frankenstein roster made the play-in only because they had to. Nobody else in the West wanted to step up. That's one of the downsides of the tournament as only the bottom 10 teams see their season end after 82 games. If they get lucky and advance, the Thunder should make easy work of them. They won all three matchups convincingly with the closest margin being 16 points."

https://okcthunderwire.usatoday.com...s-thunder-could-face-in-playoffs/83090599007/

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Kings Fans will probably take umbrage at that "downgrade" comment, but that analysis seems on-point to me.

 

[Tetsujin]

Kings Fans will probably take umbrage at that "downgrade" comment, but that analysis seems on-point to me.

Not for nothing but Doug has an above .500 winning percentage despite being saddled with the hard part of the schedule, roster turmoil, and the team suddenly having injury issues throughout the last month of the season. Really not sure how much of a downgrade he is on Mike Brown, who had pretty clearly lost the team aside from Fox midway through November.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

I'm not committed to the opinion that the next coach is an upgrade over the last coach just because the team quit on the last coach, but the point is taken.

 

[funkykingston]

My thought is that this roster is fairly locked in for next season. Deebo could likely be moved, but not for a lot. LaVine would be hard to trade next season, but easier the next season when he's (presumably - he'll have to exercise his option, which I think he will) on an expiring. Sabonis has value but also has a massive contract.

That being the case, why hamstring a new GM from the start? I'd say let Monte work with the roster he built and play out his contract and then re-assess. In this scenario I'd put some constraints on trading away assets and future picks, especially if McNair is on thin ice.

 

[hrdboild]

Not for nothing but Doug has an above .500 winning percentage despite being saddled with the hard part of the schedule, roster turmoil, and the team suddenly having injury issues throughout the last month of the season. Really not sure how much of a downgrade he is on Mike Brown, who had pretty clearly lost the team aside from Fox midway through November.

Folks have come to this conclusion based on body language and tweets. My question is, if Mike Brown had so clearly lost the team as you say than how come they were playing better basketball for him than they were for Doug Christie, a guy that everyone seems to love? Yes they had lost a number of close games which put them in a 5 games under .500 hole by late December but they also had only 4 losses with a margin of defeat ≥ 10 prior to Dec. 27 (in 31 games -- that's 12.9%) and 15 such losses after (in 51 games -- that's 29.4%).

If these guys didn't clank damn near every three point shot they threw up for a month straight they would have been a top 10 team in November/December and we'd still have Mike Brown on the sideline. Which means that you (and a lot of other Kings fans) are suggested that they were missing shots on purpose because they didn't like the coach or somehow team morale was having an outsized impact on shooting percentages but not defensive intensity. I'm skeptical of either one of those assertions.

 

[sactowndog]

My thought is that this roster is fairly locked in for next season. Deebo could likely be moved, but not for a lot. LaVine would be hard to trade next season, but easier the next season when he's (presumably - he'll have to exercise his option, which I think he will) on an expiring. Sabonis has value but also has a massive contract.

That being the case, why hamstring a new GM from the start? I'd say let Monte work with the roster he built and play out his contract and then re-assess. In this scenario I'd put some constraints on trading away assets and future picks, especially if McNair is on thin ice.

The problem is do you really think Monte can’t do more damage? I might have agreed with this take prior to the LaVine trade.

 

[funkykingston]

Seeing what Kenny Atkinson did with essentially the same Cleveland roster as last season has me wanting the Kings to explore new coaching options. I love Doug, but if the Kings go into next season with essentially the same roster, the only improvements will come on the margins. For the front office that means the 2nd round pick, UDFAs, budget signings, hopefully retaining LaRavia etc. A big coaching upgrade might pay the most dividends.

 

[funkykingston]

The problem is do you really think Monte can’t do more damage? I might have agreed with this take prior to the LaVine trade.

If this roster fails next season, the natural inclination would be for a rebuild. If so, I think the new GM should have an easier slate to work with. As long as McNair doesn't trade future picks, nothing else could really make a full rebuild more difficult IMO unless he's trading away the only pieces you'd want to keep (Keegan, Keon, Devin)

 

[Tetsujin]

Folks have come to this conclusion based on body language and tweets. My question is, if Mike Brown had so clearly lost the team as you say than how come they were playing better basketball for him than they were for Doug Christie, a guy that everyone seems to love? Yes they had lost a number of close games which put them in a 5 games under .500 hole by late December but they also had only 4 losses with a margin of defeat ≥ 10 prior to Dec. 27 (in 31 games -- that's 12.9%) and 15 such losses after (in 51 games -- that's 29.4%).

If these guys didn't clank damn near every three point shot they threw up for a month straight they would have been a top 10 team in November/December and we'd still have Mike Brown on the sideline. Which means that you (and a lot of other Kings fans) are suggested that they were missing shots on purpose because they didn't like the coach or somehow team morale was having an outsized impact on shooting percentages but not defensive intensity. I'm skeptical of either one of those assertions.

Some of those shooting woes were absolutely self-inflicted though. Mike Brown started the season insisting on playing Kevin Huerter in the starting lineup, largely kept Keon as a 10th/11th guy in the rotation, then panicked and took the “start Malik” genie out of the bottle. Does that mean Mike Brown should’ve been fired? No but The Kings also had a 6-12 record at home under Mike Brown to start the season with the final 0-5 five game homestand that got Mike Brown fired featuring multiple late game execution blunders and increasing heat coming from the locker room.

I’m really not sure how much credit the Kings deserve for all those almost wins but if Taylor Jenkins and Mike Malone can get fired from their teams for not winning enough, Mike Brown was fair game.

 

[hrdboild]

Some of those shooting woes were absolutely self-inflicted though. Mike Brown started the season insisting on playing Kevin Huerter in the starting lineup, largely kept Keon as a 10th/11th guy in the rotation, then panicked and took the “start Malik” genie out of the bottle. Does that mean Mike Brown should’ve been fired? No but The Kings also had a 6-12 record at home under Mike Brown to start the season with the final 0-5 five game homestand that got Mike Brown fired featuring multiple late game execution blunders and increasing heat coming from the locker room.

I’m really not sure how much credit the Kings deserve for all those almost wins but if Taylor Jenkins and Mike Malone can get fired from their teams for not winning enough, Mike Brown was fair game.

Kevin Huerter is a 37.5% career 3pt shooter. I don't think he should have been starting over Keon Ellis either, but shooting isn't the reason. Yes the Kings lost 2 games (Denver and Detroit) by a single point each in that 0-5 homestand you're talking about but I'll take a team with some last possession mental struggles to iron out over a team that's losing by double digits 30% of the time. Bringing up the home record really just points toward Vivek being the guy making the decisions not Monte McNair which is not a good look for us in any context. If people (front office and fans included) were panicking over home losses instead of paying attention to the substantial improvements on defense that's their fault for missing the forest for the trees.

Ours isn't the only franchise capable of making dumb decisions. And while other team's dumb decisions might make our dumb decisions look better in comparison, they don't make them any less dumb relative to the rest of the league.

 

[Tetsujin]

Kevin Huerter is a 37.5% career 3pt shooter. I don't think he should have been starting over Keon Ellis either, but shooting isn't the reason. Yes the Kings lost 2 games (Denver and Detroit) by a single point each in that 0-5 homestand you're talking about but I'll take a team with some last possession mental struggles to iron out over a team that's losing by double digits 30% of the time. Bringing up the home record really just points toward Vivek being the guy making the decisions not Monte McNair which is not a good luck for us in any context. If people (front office and fans included) were panicking over home losses instead of paying attention to the substantial improvements on defense that's their fault for missing the forest for the trees.

Ours isn't the only franchise capable of making dumb decisions. And while other team's dumb decisions might make our dumb decisions look better in comparison, they don't make them any less dumb relative to the rest of the league.

This is quite possibly the single most boldfaced bit of revisionist history I’ve ever seen on this site. Maybe the Kings weren’t terrible at defense under Brown to start the season but they were also giving up threes at an astonishing rate while also refusing to play their best defender for some reason. The Kings have gotten a bit worse on defense since the deal, yes, but it’s not a huge night and day difference AND the team’s defensive coordinator left for a college head coaching gig with a full month left in the season.

Mike Brown seems like a great dude but his track record would suggest that his old-fashioned style of coaching leads to his players sort of tuning him out to the point of him getting fired. It happened with the Cavs where their GM tried to keep LeBron by firing Brown and replacing him with a slightly less abrasions personality (sure it was Byron Scott but whatever) and then it happened with the Lakers where his style coming in after Phil Jackson’s less wound up approach immediately led to Kobe and Pau having conflicts with him and him getting fired a week into his second season. Are any of the guys on the Kings Kobe or Bron? No but that doesn’t mean that they should put up or shut up with someone giving them diminishing returns.

Also this is the “Should Monte be the GM next year?” Thread so I guess I’ll just say that Monte didn’t do Mike Brown any favors by giving him the roster that he did at the beginning of the season (plus Devin was hurt) but Mike Brown didn’t do the roster any favors by misusing what he did have. Ironically the De’Aaron Fox deal DID fix some of Mike Brown’s size concerns with the roster but now it’s for a coach who is much more amenable to a style that actually helped maximize the roster from beginning of the year. It’s a bit of a Gift of the Magi situation on that one.

 

[The_Jamal]

This is quite possibly the single most boldfaced bit of revisionist history I’ve ever seen on this site. Maybe the Kings weren’t terrible at defense under Brown to start the season but they were also giving up threes at an astonishing rate while also refusing to play their best defender for some reason. The Kings have gotten a bit worse on defense since the deal, yes, but it’s not a huge night and day difference AND the team’s defensive coordinator left for a college head coaching gig with a full month left in the season.

Mike Brown seems like a great dude but his track record would suggest that his old-fashioned style of coaching leads to his players sort of tuning him out to the point of him getting fired. It happened with the Cavs where their GM tried to keep LeBron by firing Brown and replacing him with a slightly less abrasions personality (sure it was Byron Scott but whatever) and then it happened with the Lakers where his style coming in after Phil Jackson’s less wound up approach immediately led to Kobe and Pau having conflicts with him and him getting fired a week into his second season. Are any of the guys on the Kings Kobe or Bron? No but that doesn’t mean that they should put up or shut up with someone giving them diminishing returns.

Also this is the “Should Monte be the GM next year?” Thread so I guess I’ll just say that Monte didn’t do Mike Brown any favors by giving him the roster that he did at the beginning of the season (plus Devin was hurt) but Mike Brown didn’t do the roster any favors by misusing what he did have. Ironically the De’Aaron Fox deal DID fix some of Mike Brown’s size concerns with the roster but now it’s for a coach who is much more amenable to a style that actually helped maximize the roster from beginning of the year. It’s a bit of a Gift of the Magi situation on that one.

Also, our defense took a huge leap last year, largely because Keon started the last 20 games of the year and we were 3rd in defense in the NBA during that span lol.

 

[hrdboild]

This is quite possibly the single most boldfaced bit of revisionist history I’ve ever seen on this site. Maybe the Kings weren’t terrible at defense under Brown to start the season but they were also giving up threes at an astonishing rate while also refusing to play their best defender for some reason. The Kings have gotten a bit worse on defense since the deal, yes, but it’s not a huge night and day difference AND the team’s defensive coordinator left for a college head coaching gig with a full month left in the season.

Mike Brown seems like a great dude but his track record would suggest that his old-fashioned style of coaching leads to his players sort of tuning him out to the point of him getting fired. It happened with the Cavs where their GM tried to keep LeBron by firing Brown and replacing him with a slightly less abrasions personality (sure it was Byron Scott but whatever) and then it happened with the Lakers where his style coming in after Phil Jackson’s less wound up approach immediately led to Kobe and Pau having conflicts with him and him getting fired a week into his second season. Are any of the guys on the Kings Kobe or Bron? No but that doesn’t mean that they should put up or shut up with someone giving them diminishing returns.

Also this is the “Should Monte be the GM next year?” Thread so I guess I’ll just say that Monte didn’t do Mike Brown any favors by giving him the roster that he did at the beginning of the season (plus Devin was hurt) but Mike Brown didn’t do the roster any favors by misusing what he did have. Ironically the De’Aaron Fox deal DID fix some of Mike Brown’s size concerns with the roster but now it’s for a coach who is much more amenable to a style that actually helped maximize the roster from beginning of the year. It’s a bit of a Gift of the Magi situation on that one.

It's not revisionism, I was talking about this in November and December too. Is it my fault that y'all were just ignoring me while you spun your own narrative? Unfortunately the closest the Waybackmachine will go to December 27th, 2024 is December 15th and I didn't think to make screenshots but here's where we were on December 15th:



And here's where we are now:



That is a significant drop-off both in terms of Defensive Rating and Net Rating to the point where that December 15th team is a playoff team based on their performance (Expected Record 15-11) and the April 15th team is not (Expected Record 42-20). That very much IS a huge night and day difference.

Isn't it possible that the guy with a three decade long history of devising defensive schemes that work in the NBA had some idea what he was doing? Despite allowing one of the highest opponent 3pt % in the league, he still had a team with above average defense and a Net Rating that should have put them in the top 5 in the West if not for some truly baffling end-game officiating and a GM who refused to bring in a legit backup center until February.

 

[The_Jamal]

It's not revisionism, I was talking about this in November and December too. Is it my fault that y'all were just ignoring me while you spun your own narrative? Unfortunately the closest the Waybackmachine will go to December 27th, 2024 is December 15th and I didn't think to make screenshots but here's where we were on December 15th:



And here's where we are now:



That is a significant drop-off both in terms of Defensive Rating and Net Rating to the point where that December 15th team is a playoff team based on their performance (Expected Record 15-11) and the April 15th team is not (Expected Record 42-20). That very much IS a huge night and day difference.

Isn't it possible that the guy with a three decade long history of devising defensive schemes that work in the NBA had some idea what he was doing when despite allowing one of the highest 3pt % in the team, he still had a team with above average defense and a Net Rating that should have put them in the top 5 in the West if not for some truly baffling end-game officiating and a GM who refused to bring in a legit backup center until February.

Lol, are you joking? We literally lost the next 5 games, which lead to Brown getting fired. 6 if we include the Lakers game. And you want to say Tetsu is spinning a narrative? What was the FULL Mike Brown tenure, not just before we fell off a cliff?

 

[Joshyjosh31]

Fox didn't wake up one day and out of the blue think, "I've got an idea. I'm going to sign with KLUTCH to get the hell out of Sacramento." Decisions of that magnitude percolate, usually over very long periods of time. Fox was ruminating about this for a long time. I don't care if McNair had to bug Fox's bedroom to find out - he needed to find out where Fox's head was at the beginning of this past summer. And you know what? If he didn't have a clear read on Fox because of Fox's passive aggressive nature, he needed to pull the plug then and trade Fox at the apex of his market value, not sit around and hope for the best. Hoping for the best may be the strategy of a King's fan, but for a GM it's a curtain call.

There’s no hoping for the best when your best player signs with klutch and you’re not a big market team. We should’ve been ahead of this the second he signed with klutch and became non committal instead of hoping he makes an all nba team