Shams Bomb! Keon Ellis and Dennis Schroder traded to Cleveland in 3 team deal. Kings acquire De’Andre Hunter

[Warhawk]

I don't really think anything about the Hunter trade, either way. I was trying to reconcile the notion that the Kings won this trade with the belief that they will still finish in the bottom 5. I don't think that some people here appreciate just how little improvement it would require to go from the worst record in the NBA to the sixth-worst. Like, not really much at all, and if the Kings won this trade, that might about do it.

Since you asked (you didn't, but this is a good jumping off point) - I decided to see how the lottery treated various teams since the last odds adjustment.



The team with the worst record has never picked first after the lottery; the best they have done is come in second (twice). That team has also picked fifth three times (the last three years).

Other than 2023, every year one or more teams originally slotted at pick 7 or higher have jumped into the top 4. Four out of the 7 years saw two or more teams originally slotted at 7 or worse pop into the top 4.

The teams most often picking first were the teams originally slotted at 2 and 3 (four of the seven drafts, twice each). Others were originally at positions 7, 10, and 11.

The team originally slated to pick at 7 popped into the top 4 more often than they didn't (four times in vs. three times staying out). The team originally at 8 did almost as well, jumping into the top 4 a total of three times. So, the teams at positions 7 and 8 pre lottery jumped into the top 4 an average of 50% of the time.

The team at 11 has jumped into the top 4 twice.

 

[BillyStrings]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2017968617590018466

He relies on the back tap too much. When he misses that, it probably counts as a blowby.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

@Warhawk, I kind of break ranks with you on some of that because I feel like, if you've already decided to lose, you might as well lose big... My thing is, in the meantime, they're still trying to sell tickets right now. They're still trying to get STHs to renew right now. If you go to the Kings' page on NBA.com, they've got all kinds of plans for sale for the remainder of the season.

Whether it works out or not, presumably they're trying to avoid playing in an empty arena while they wait for their handful of magic beans to turn into a beanstalk: how do you sell tickets today, when all you have to offer the paying customer is tomorrow?

 

[Warhawk]

@Warhawk, I kind of break ranks with you on some of that because I feel like, if you've already decided to lose, you might as well lose big... My thing is, in the meantime, they're still trying to sell tickets right now. They're still trying to get STHs to renew right now. If you go to the Kings' page on NBA.com, they've got all kinds of plans for sale for the remainder of the season.

Whether it works out or not, presumably they're trying to avoid playing in an empty arena while they wait for their handful of magic beans to turn into a beanstalk: how do you sell tickets today, when all you have to offer the paying customer is tomorrow?

What exactly are you referring to? I'm lost here.

 

[SacTownKid]

Interesting stat….does kind of pass the eye test also. While I love Keon’s activity on d, he’s not a perfect well rounded defender. In the right system (probably with Mobley and Allen behind him) he should do great.

Yeah, Keon is a gambler. In the play in game last season it was what the playoffs might look like for him. Refs aren't going to let anyone swipe down on stars looking to get their hand on the ball that frequently. Not every single game. He could have some games of minimal time based on foul trouble.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

What exactly are you referring to? I'm lost here.

The general over-arching sentiment of, "The draft is a crapshoot: why do you guys act like it's the end-all?" It's not the end-all, but it's the second-most valuable tool the Kings have at their disposal, behind only talent evaluation itself. But talent evaluation is most useful at discovering gems and, the only thing about that, is that it's not historically super-common for gems to become franchise cornerstones.

Personally my biggest objection to tanking has always been that it's disrespectful to the people who are paying for tickets in the present, banking on the ability to recoup those "losses" in the future.

 

[Warhawk]

The general over-arching sentiment of, "The draft is a crapshoot: why do you guys act like it's the end-all?" It's not the end-all, but it's the second-most valuable tool the Kings have at their disposal, behind only talent evaluation itself. But talent evaluation is most useful at discovering gems and, the only thing about that, is that it's not historically super-common for gems to become franchise cornerstones.

Personally my biggest objection to tanking has always been that it's disrespectful to the people who are paying for tickets in the present, banking on the ability to recoup those "losses" in the future.

Gotcha. Actually, this time I was just genuinely curious when I put this together. I had glanced at the most recent couple of years not long ago, but I decided to put it together just to see what the data actually says (since the odds were changed). It doesn't fit the "expected" odds with so few samples to draw from, but the results are indeed still curious.

You were saying that we have some danger of falling out of the top five. Seven years of drafts have seen numerous teams in the 7-8 range in particular jumping into the top 4 and, coincidentally, some of the top 5 teams falling out of the top 5 after the lottery:

Pre-lottery position and # times drafting in the top 5:

1. All seven times (a given, as top four positions are by lottery)
2. Six times
3. Five times
4. Two times
5. Four times

The top 5 pre-lottery positioned teams have actually gotten a top 5 pick in 24 of 35 drafts picks, an average hit rate of 69% over the first seven years. 31% of the top 5 picks over that time have gone to teams outside the top 5 positions pre-lottery.