Saturday a Must Win ??

[troosvelt]

Given the history it would seem Saturday is a make or break for the Kings.

Historically in a 7 game series, if the home team wins Game 1, they win the series 87% of the time.

If the road team wins Game 1, they win the series 58% of the time.

So they better buckle down Saturday.

 

[SacTownKid]

A must win??? They are all must wins.

 

[Bricklayer]

Game 1 or 2, take either I will feel good. Lose them both, and we have to come up with something really special against a Sonics team which will be more and more confident.

Game 1 promises to be a mess anyway -- players returning on both sides, our first playoff game together for 75% of the roster, the Sonics being both hyped (good) and jittery (bad) for their first playoffs in a while etc. Very hard to predict. Certainly given all the various factors not something I'd like to chalk up as a must win.

 

[funsc]

Kings need to win at least one game in the first two

 

[SacTownKid]

If the Kings go down in the first 2 it could be a very dangerous situation.

 

[Sofa King]

1 in the first 2 and we are good (winning both would be goodER =P), and actually if I had to pick I'd choose losing the first and winning the second so we'd have momentum going into our home games =/

 

[Evenstar]

i just want a split. that will give us the home court back.

GO KINGS!

 

[Twix]

A must win??? They are all must wins.

That's what I'm saying. No need to split or what not, try to win all if you can!

 

[skillet]

I have a feeling that the kings are going to win this saturday......(these feelings are usually 80% right)

 

[HndsmCelt]

"Must Win" is a term invented by sports announces in order increse the rate for add time in the next game. To apply it to the first game of a series is to deney thevery rational behind playing a series.

 

[troosvelt]

I would be happy with a win in either Game 1 or 2 but I also recognize that I am no expert and that decades of game stats don't lie.

If Seattle wins Saturday the Kings have only a 13% chance to win the series.

This doesn't mean that the outcome is carved in stone, of course, but those kind of stats tend to mount up for a reason.

 

[Fillmoe]

A must win??? They are all must wins.

you read my mind

 

[Bricklayer]

I would be happy with a win in either Game 1 or 2 but I also recognize that I am no expert and that decades of game stats don't lie.

If Seattle wins Saturday the Kings have only a 13% chance to win the series.

This doesn't mean that the outcome is carved in stone, of course, but those kind of stats tend to mount up for a reason.

Yes they do, but I think in this particular case its not quite as applicable as in some cases. The fact of the matter is that in most series the home team is clearly better than the road team -- that's how they became the home team. So Miami/New Jersey, Miami probably wins that Game 1 and of course wins the series and apds the total. That is as it should be, but its not actually Game 1 that is deciding the series, it is the overwhelming talent advantage of one of the teams that has been rewarded with a first game at home. But we're probably closer to that 58% number -- its not entirely clear who is better right now, and while Game 1 would be useful, and of particular value to us in avoiding yet another deadly Game 7, Seattle winning game 1 with HCA doesn't carry with it the addiional weight of Seattle clearly and obviously beign the team to beat inthe series.

 

[Superman]

We need two splits (one in Seattle and one at home), and then we need to win Game 5. Give us two wins on the road, and I'll be happy.

 

[Bricklayer]

We need two splits (one in Seattle and one at home), and then we need to win Game 5. Give us two wins on the road, and I'll be happy.

That's tough planning on taking a Game 5 like that unless we really are clearly better than Seattle. Who knows of course, but my bet would be on the safer steal one and just defend the home court approach, then win it in 6 back at Arco.

 

[Superman]

I agree, but if we go into Game 5 split, we need that game. Two years in a row we've split the first four games, and two years in a row we've lost control of the series by dropping Game 5 on the road, and it's time to do something about it. If we can win one of the first two games on the road, we should be able to win another one, instead of going 3-1 on the road in a seven game series, again. It's more likely that we take Games 4 and 5 than it is we take 3 and 4, in my opinion.

 

[Bricklayer]

It's more likely that we take Games 4 and 5 than it is we take 3 and 4, in my opinion.

More likely? How do you figure exactly? There's probably a reason we've lost those Game 5s -- they are rough games with the home team with its back against the wall, the crowd fired up etc. I think really tough to steal unless you're just flat out better than your opponent. It'd be great, but I'm certainly not betting on it unless it turns out the Sonics really are as shaky as we've hoped.

 

[Alacron]

I agree, but if we go into Game 5 split, we need that game. Two years in a row we've split the first four games, and two years in a row we've lost control of the series by dropping Game 5 on the road, and it's time to do something about it. If we can win one of the first two games on the road, we should be able to win another one, instead of going 3-1 on the road in a seven game series, again. It's more likely that we take Games 4 and 5 than it is we take 3 and 4, in my opinion.

To be honest, getting out of the first round alive would just be icing on the cake to me. We lost three core guys, team leaders, this season, and I look at this as a rebuilding year. Making noise in the playoffs is an unexpected bonus. I'm back to 1999, enjoying every game for what it is.
~~

 

[Crvena Zvezda]

Every game is a must win game