Sabonis' Next Contract?

[twslam07]

I posted some thoughts on this in another thread, but thought it would be interesting to start a poll to see what people think Sabonis will do as a FA (I know. Way too early to speculate but it's TDOS).

Below are some things to keep in mind when considering Sabonis next contract...

1. Sabonis will make $18,500,000 during the 2022-23 season and $19,400,000 during the 2023-24 season.
2. Sabonis will be an unrestricted free agent after the 2023-24 season (2024 offseason).
3. Sabonis will be 28 years old when he is an unrestricted free agent (2024 offseason).
4. By the end of the 2023-24 season, Sabonis will have made $99,173,326 during his career.
5. During the 2022-23 season, the NBA salary cap is projected to be $123,655,000.
6. During the 2023-24 season, the NBA salary cap is projected to be $129,780,000.
7. During the 2024-25 season, the NBA salary cap is projected to be $136,269,000.
8. The NBA is aiming to have a new TV deal in place worth $75 billion (current deal is $24 billion) which will the salary cap for the 2025-26 season.
9. During the 2025-26 season, the NBA salary cap could take a massive leap to ~$171,000,000 due to the new TV deal.
10. The max extension Sabonis can sign during the 2023 offseason is 120% of the last year of his contract ($19,400,000 * 120%) with 8% annual raises:
    1. Year 1 = $23,280,000
    2. Year 2 = $25,142,400
    3. Year 3 = $27,153,792
    4. Year 4 = $29,326,095
    5. Total = $104,902,287
11. The max contract Sabonis can sign during the 2024 offseason is 30% of the salary cap ($136,269,000 * 30%) with 8% annual raises:
    1. Year 1 = $40,880,700
    2. Year 2 = $44,151,156
    3. Year 3 = $47,683,248
    4. Year 4 = $51,497,908
    5. Total = $184,213,013
12. The max contract Sabonis can sign during the 2025 offseason is 30% of the salary cap ($171,000,000 * 30%) with 8% annual raises:
    1. Year 1 = $51,300,000
    2. Year 2 = $55,404,000
    3. Year 3 = $59,836,320
    4. Year 4 = $64,623,226
    5. Total = $231,163,546

With all of that in mind, what do you predict will happen between the Kings & Sabonis in regards to his next contract? Will Sabonis risk turning down an extension because it could result in another $80-$125 mil over 4 years? Will Sabonis resign via a 1+1 contract allowing him to enter free agency during the 2025 offseason again? What do you think?

 

[kingsboi]

I won't be the one to claim that I know what goes on inside Sabonis' head but if by 2024 he will have made $99 million and he still isn't winning, I can see him taking a pay cut to go somewhere where he can get a chance to win whether it be here or elsewhere.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I won't be the one to claim that I know what goes on inside Sabonis' head but if by 2024 he will have made $99 million and he still isn't winning, I can see him taking a pay cut to go somewhere where he can get a chance to win whether it be here or elsewhere.

Hopefully he thinks we have given him a chance to win.

 

[QWERTYLICIOUS]

I posted some thoughts on this in another thread, but thought it would be interesting to start a poll to see what people think Sabonis will do as a FA (I know. Way too early to speculate but it's TDOS).

Below are some things to keep in mind when considering Sabonis next contract...

1. Sabonis will make $18,500,000 during the 2022-23 season and $19,400,000 during the 2023-24 season.
2. Sabonis will be an unrestricted free agent after the 2023-24 season (2024 offseason).
3. Sabonis will be 28 years old when he is an unrestricted free agent (2024 offseason).
4. By the end of the 2023-24 season, Sabonis will have made $99,173,326 during his career.
5. During the 2022-23 season, the NBA salary cap is projected to be $123,655,000.
6. During the 2023-24 season, the NBA salary cap is projected to be $129,780,000.
7. During the 2024-25 season, the NBA salary cap is projected to be $136,269,000.
8. The NBA is aiming to have a new TV deal in place worth $75 billion (current deal is $24 billion) which will the salary cap for the 2025-26 season.
9. During the 2025-26 season, the NBA salary cap could take a massive leap to ~$171,000,000 due to the new TV deal.
10. The max extension Sabonis can sign during the 2023 offseason is 120% of the last year of his contract ($19,400,000 * 120%) with 8% annual raises:
    1. Year 1 = $23,280,000
    2. Year 2 = $25,142,400
    3. Year 3 = $27,153,792
    4. Year 4 = $29,326,095
    5. Total = $104,902,287
11. The max contract Sabonis can sign during the 2024 offseason is 30% of the salary cap ($136,269,000 * 30%) with 8% annual raises:
    1. Year 1 = $40,880,700
    2. Year 2 = $44,151,156
    3. Year 3 = $47,683,248
    4. Year 4 = $51,497,908
    5. Total = $184,213,013
12. The max contract Sabonis can sign during the 2025 offseason is 30% of the salary cap ($171,000,000 * 30%) with 8% annual raises:
    1. Year 1 = $51,300,000
    2. Year 2 = $55,404,000
    3. Year 3 = $59,836,320
    4. Year 4 = $64,623,226
    5. Total = $231,163,546

With all of that in mind, what do you predict will happen between the Kings & Sabonis in regards to his next contract? Will Sabonis risk turning down an extension because it could result in another $80-$125 mil over 4 years? Will Sabonis resign via a 1+1 contract allowing him to enter free agency during the 2025 offseason again? What do you think?

I'm going to refrain from answering this question. Because I don't know. There are way too many variables in play. If we win, he stays. If we don't win, we risk the chance of seeing him walk. I'll be much better suited to provide an answer once I am able to see how the current roster performs.

 

[SLAB]

Talent for talent, the Kings won the Haliburton trade. This next contract is what matters though. . Because the eternal pessimist I am, I don’t believe we have a great shot at retaining him.

He walks and it’s a short-sighted failure of a disaster.

 

[coolhandluke]

Too early to talk about contract extension considering that Sabonis has yet to prove that:
1) he can take the Kings to the playoffs and
2) he can dominate in the playoffs, which he has failed to do with the Pacers.

I love Sabonis but let's wait and see his performance before talking contract numbers.

 

[coolhandluke]

Talent for talent, the Kings won the Haliburton trade. This next contract is what matters though. . Because the eternal pessimist I am, I don’t believe we have a great shot at retaining him.

He walks and it’s a short-sighted failure of a disaster.

Kings may have got the best player in the trade but they lost in overall talent. We traded two quality starters to get back one quality starter. Considering the way the NBA is going, Tyrese would likely overtake Sabonis by the end of this season (even when ignoring contract values).

With the Kings:
Sabonis: 18.9 ppg / 12.3 rpg / 5.8 apg

With the Pacers:
Tyrese: 17.5 ppg / 4.3 rpg / 9.6 apg
Buddy: 18.2 ppg / 5.1 rpg / 4.8 apg

That being said, in terms of fit for an actual basketball team: Sabonis + Fox > Tyrese + Fox + Buddy (who was doodoo with the Kings).

 

[PorchSurfin]

Kings may have got the best player in the trade but they lost in overall talent. We traded two quality starters to get back one quality starter. Considering the way the NBA is going, Tyrese would likely overtake Sabonis by the end of this season (even when ignoring contract values).

With the Kings:
Sabonis: 18.9 ppg / 12.3 rpg / 5.8 apg

With the Pacers:
Tyrese: 17.5 ppg / 4.3 rpg / 9.6 apg
Buddy: 18.2 ppg / 5.1 rpg / 4.8 apg

That being said, in terms of fit for an actual basketball team: Sabonis + Fox > Tyrese + Fox + Buddy (who was doodoo with the Kings).

You're tripping if you think Buddy is a quality starter. He is a quality 6th man. As a starter, he contributed more to losing than winning. Tripping.

 

[SacTownKid]

As a scorer Buddy is a proven commodity and Tyrese has a team of his own now and should be a very productive player as well. In the end, Monte built around his best player in Fox and Sabonis is probably the biggest part of that. If you are trying to win this is the way. The downside is it's so late in the game little snags in season will be chicken little level for sure but these are the cards they were dealt. Now time for some 11th hour winning. If it comes Sabonis will get his money one way or the other.

 

[dude12]

Kings may have got the best player in the trade but they lost in overall talent. We traded two quality starters to get back one quality starter. Considering the way the NBA is going, Tyrese would likely overtake Sabonis by the end of this season (even when ignoring contract values).

With the Kings:
Sabonis: 18.9 ppg / 12.3 rpg / 5.8 apg

With the Pacers:
Tyrese: 17.5 ppg / 4.3 rpg / 9.6 apg
Buddy: 18.2 ppg / 5.1 rpg / 4.8 apg

That being said, in terms of fit for an actual basketball team: Sabonis + Fox > Tyrese + Fox + Buddy (who was doodoo with the Kings).

Can’t agree with this

 

[KingsFanSince85]

Kings may have got the best player in the trade but they lost in overall talent. We traded two quality starters to get back one quality starter.

With the Kings:
Sabonis: 18.9 ppg / 12.3 rpg / 5.8 apg

With the Pacers:
Tyrese: 17.5 ppg / 4.3 rpg / 9.6 apg
Buddy: 18.2 ppg / 5.1 rpg / 4.8 apg

IMO the way you have positioned this is quite flawed.

I mean, just imagine for a moment that the KINGS traded Fox and Barnes or even better yet Fox and Sabonis for Stephen Curry.

You could lineup their statistics just as you did above and the two players would outproduce the one. By a lot.

But who in their right mind wouldn’t make that trade (from the KINGS perspective and ignoring age and stages of careers)?

The point is, it’s much more complicated than you’re making it out to be. The fact that Tyrese and Buddy together outproduced Sabonis doesn’t mean Indy got the better of the trade or that the KINGS lost in overall talent.

 

[coolhandluke]

You're tripping if you think Buddy is a quality starter. He is a quality 6th man. As a starter, he contributed more to losing than winning. Tripping.

Buddy with the Pacers was a well rounded player compared to the chucker he was with the Kings last year.

Indiana Buddy is arguably a top 12 (even top 10) SG in the NBA, which means he would easily start for more than half the teams in the NBA. He may no longer be elite but he is way above average.

As for the 6th man quality, he would be elite considering his stats look similar to 6MOTY winning SGs (like Herro, Clarkson and Williams).

2021-22: Buddy: 18.2 ppg / 5.1 rpg / 4.8 apg (with Pacers)

2021-22: Herro: 20.7 ppg / 5.0 rpg / 4.0 apg
2020-21: Clarkson: 18.4 ppg / 4.0 rpg / 2.5 apg
2018-19: Williams: 20.0 ppg / 3.0 rpg / 5.4 apg

 

[coolhandluke]

IMO the way you have positioned this is quite flawed.

I mean, just imagine for a moment that the KINGS traded Fox and Barnes or even better yet Fox and Sabonis for Stephen Curry.

You could lineup their statistics just as you did above and the two players would outproduce the one. By a lot.

But who in their right mind wouldn’t make that trade (from the KINGS perspective and ignoring age and stages of careers)?

The point is, it’s much more complicated than you’re making it out to be. The fact that Tyrese and Buddy together outproduced Sabonis doesn’t mean Indy got the better of the trade or that the KINGS lost in overall talent.

You are correct in saying that when the tiers of players are vastly different.

In this trade, Sabonis and Tyrese are tier-2 players and Buddy is a tier-3 player. There's no doubt that the trade was beneficial for both teams as they got more balanced and their ceiling improved due to better fit.

 

[Tetsujin]

Buddy with the Pacers was a well rounded player compared to the chucker he was with the Kings last year.

Indiana Buddy is arguably a top 12 (even top 10) SG in the NBA, which means he would easily start for more than half the teams in the NBA. He may no longer be elite but he is way above average.

As for the 6th man quality, he would be elite considering his stats look similar to 6MOTY winning SGs (like Herro, Clarkson and Williams).

2021-22: Buddy: 18.2 ppg / 5.1 rpg / 4.8 apg (with Pacers)

2021-22: Herro: 20.7 ppg / 5.0 rpg / 4.0 apg
2020-21: Clarkson: 18.4 ppg / 4.0 rpg / 2.5 apg
2018-19: Williams: 20.0 ppg / 3.0 rpg / 5.4 apg

Dude played so good that the Lakers are essentially the only team asking for him and even then are mostly interested in doing the deal to get Russ the hell off their team.

The Kings were able to pick up a slightly cheaper version of him in free agency and Malik’s barely even older now than Buddy was as a rookie.

 

[Tetsujin]

For all intents and purposes, we probably shouldn’t be looking at the stats being put up on a couple of teams only modestly interested in winning games at the end of the last season (especially so in the Pacers’ case) as any indication of production going forward. Tyrese and Buddy were putting up NUMBERS in Indiana but they also had the greenest of lights because all the other semi-talented guys on their team were either injured or actively being shopped to the Celtics.

By the end of the year, Carlisle had the Pacers playing end-of-career Don Nelson style “They can’t beat us if we score more points than them but even they’ll probably score more than us” Nelly Ball, which is the exact sort of system Buddy thrives in (see the last Dave Joerger “Scores” year). There’s a good chance the Pacers remain in that mode this season as well (Gotta tank for Wemby!) but if Carlisle even tries to have the Pacers play a lick of defense/structure, I’m not sure Buddy’s going to stay so hot.

Also I thought this was a thread about Domas’s next contract?

 

[Pimpis Zajoba]

Domas and his family are happy living in Napa Valley (He's commuting from there)...loves it in California....but, he's not going to sign an extension for the simple reason he can't get max with his current salary. Domas is a much better player than you think and will improve a lot in 2 years (he is one of the hardest working players in the NBA). If Kings makes playoffs in 2 years he will sign in 2024 as a free agent...if not No.

 

[Joshoua]

Domas and his family are happy living in Napa Valley (He's commuting from there)...loves it in California....but, he's not going to sign an extension for the simple reason he can't get max with his current salary. Domas is a much better player than you think and will improve a lot in 2 years (he is one of the hardest working players in the NBA). If Kings makes playoffs in 2 years he will sign in 2024 as a free agent...if not No.

Domas is getting a max the question is where and for the playoffs spot man the west is deep next two years still. Phoenix, Memphis, GSW, Dallas, denver, Minnesota, and both LA teams should be better than us by a wide margin unless lebron slips some more.

 

[Spike]

Domas is getting a max the question is where and for the playoffs spot man the west is deep next two years still. Phoenix, Memphis, GSW, Dallas, denver, Minnesota, and both LA teams should be better than us by a wide margin unless lebron slips some more.

To start the season, yeah, these teams are better in paper That said, I don't think Minnesota will be that much better - I guess I have to see how the pieces fit. Denver, Dallas, and Phoenix, to me, are an injury away from the middle of the pack, and I just don't see the Lakers as that much better. I can see Sacramento in the mix for a lower playoff seed, like a 7, if things break the right way.
I think with better coaching, development, and scheme, this team should be able to put up points. The wins will come on the defensive end, and if there's sufficient buy in, then while this roster doesn't have name-brand recognition, it is built in a somewhat cohesive fashion. It no longer needs an overhaul, just some tweaks.

 

[PorchSurfin]

Buddy with the Pacers was a well rounded player compared to the chucker he was with the Kings last year.

Indiana Buddy is arguably a top 12 (even top 10) SG in the NBA, which means he would easily start for more than half the teams in the NBA. He may no longer be elite but he is way above average.

As for the 6th man quality, he would be elite considering his stats look similar to 6MOTY winning SGs (like Herro, Clarkson and Williams).

2021-22: Buddy: 18.2 ppg / 5.1 rpg / 4.8 apg (with Pacers)

2021-22: Herro: 20.7 ppg / 5.0 rpg / 4.0 apg
2020-21: Clarkson: 18.4 ppg / 4.0 rpg / 2.5 apg
2018-19: Williams: 20.0 ppg / 3.0 rpg / 5.4 apg

I honestly get real tired of counting stats but yet I also get tired of the "you haven't seen him play" psuedo stat.

However, with Buddy, he is the poster child of counting stats when you haven't seem him play. Not only will Buddy shoot you out of a game (and turnover the ball while increasing the deficit), he will shoot you right back into a game while turning the ball over at the end to seal the loss.

Counting stats be damned, you want Buddy in the game when the game is not hanging in the balance.

 

[PorchSurfin]

Domas is getting a max the question is where and for the playoffs spot man the west is deep next two years still. Phoenix, Memphis, GSW, Dallas, denver, Minnesota, and both LA teams should be better than us by a wide margin unless lebron slips some more.

I would be very cautious saying BOTH LA teams are better than the Kings by a WIDE margin. This post will come back to bite you, guaranteed.

 

[coolhandluke]

Domas and his family are happy living in Napa Valley (He's commuting from there)...loves it in California....but, he's not going to sign an extension for the simple reason he can't get max with his current salary. Domas is a much better player than you think and will improve a lot in 2 years (he is one of the hardest working players in the NBA). If Kings makes playoffs in 2 years he will sign in 2024 as a free agent...if not No.

If the Kings make some noise in the playoffs due to the stellar play of Sabonis, I think he would have earned a max contract.

 

[Tetsujin]

I would be very cautious saying BOTH LA teams are better than the Kings by a WIDE margin. This post will come back to bite you, guaranteed.

Yeah, the Clippers might be the best team in the league this year (depending on what exactly John Wall has left in the tank). The Lakers’ three best players hate each other and the PatBev trade is either going to be the savvy vet move they needed or more fuel to the fire. Also they have like one solid shooter on their roster.

 

[Joshoua]

I would be very cautious saying BOTH LA teams are better than the Kings by a WIDE margin. This post will come back to bite you, guaranteed.

I mean I hope it does lol but it won’t be the clips

 

[twslam07]

Bump. Curious how people are feeling about this now.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Well a lot depends on what he wants out of life - as the son of a former player perhaps securing the biggest bag is less important than having a winning team which means spreading some of that wealth around - but right now my thoughts are we prepare for that 2024 max. Truth be told our salary cap opportunity is this offseason anyways. The team will be maxed out for the foreseeable future if we make the playoffs and re-sign key players, extend Keegs etc. and all of that is on the 2024/2025 clock.

But damn, we really need someone who can play when he is resting or injured because he's irreplaceable right now.

 

[KF8]

Don't know much about NBA contracts but the Kings could offer Sabonis more money than any other team correct? That could be a factor if money matters to him.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Don't know much about NBA contracts but the Kings could offer Sabonis more money than any other team correct? That could be a factor if money matters to him.

I don't think that's an issue, just that during preseason and maybe the first week or two of the regular season Sabonis looked like the #2 where now he looks like the entire offense and also our best rebounder.

 

[The_Jamal]

I'm really just not all that worried about his contract, especially with us really playing well to start the year. I imagine he had some input too on the Brown coaching hire, his family is in California and we can offer him significantly more money than anybody else. And just everything he's done/said publicly has shown how much he likes Sacramento and wants to win here. It helps too the Kings have just been good this year so he's getting an opportunity to win for a city that's been desperate for it for so long.

I think the only wrench that could jet him off course is if Vivek doesn't keep Monte and we're in GM hell again. Which makes getting the extension done such a priority; need to start broadcasting that we're doing things correctly here in Sacramento with a GM/Coach on the same page.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I probably should have said I am sure he re-signs. I just thought he maybe wasn't a max money player for a hot minute. He's 100% a max money player.