Retaining Thomas

[twslam07]

Well the trade deadline has passed and Thomas is still a King. It appears the FO made him available, but no deals were ever worked out. So does this mean the FO is going to try and resign him or let him walk in this upcoming offseason? I don’t think it would be wise to let him walk for nothing if the FO decides to part ways with Thomas because (as many have mentioned already) it would be a talent bleed, but are the Kings able to resign him with their current cap situation?

This analysis will take into account worst case scenarios in regards to the cap. What I mean by that is I will not be factoring in the possibility that Gay will opt out and sign for less. As of now, we will have exactly $67,264,451 on our books next year. The Luxury Tax Level is estimated to be $75,700,000. That gives us $8,435,549 to work with before hitting the Luxury Tax Level. Some might say that $8,435,549 would be enough to retain Thomas; however, we have a 1st round draft pick this year who we have to sign before signing any of our Free Agents.

Currently we hold the 4th worst record in the league. If we remain the 4th worst in the league, that gives us the opportunity of landing between picks 1-7 in the 2014 draft. Using the rookie salaries from the 2013 draft, I calculated how much cap room we would have left after signing our rookie for each position in the draft (1-7).

1st pick: $3,111,269 before hitting the Luxury Tax Level
2nd pick: $3,671,789 before hitting the Luxury Tax Level
3rd pick: $4,157,549 before hitting the Luxury Tax Level
4th pick: $4,578,509 before hitting the Luxury Tax Level
5th pick: $4,942,829 before hitting the Luxury Tax Level
6th pick: $5,263,229 before hitting the Luxury Tax Level
7th pick: $5,539,589 before hitting the Luxury Tax Level

As you can see , we don't have much room to offer Thomas a contract. I also calculated how big of a contract we could offer him for each pick (using a 4 year contract with 7.5% raises each year).

1st pick: $13,916,463 over 4 years / average of $3,479,116 per year
2nd pick: $16,423,625 over 4 years / average of $4,105,906 per year
3rd pick: $18,596,392 over 4 years / average of $4,649,098 per year
4th pick: $20,479,313 over 4 years / average of $5,119,828 per year
5th pick: $22,108,888 over 4 years / average of $5,527,222 per year
6th pick: $23,542,012 over 4 years / average of $5,885,503 per year
7th pick: $24,778,149 over 4 years / average of $6,194,537 per year

Are any of the contracts large enough to keep Thomas in Sacramento? I hope so because that would mean he’s making sixth man money. We wouldn’t be able to offer him starters’ money without going into the Luxury Tax.

Now one thing I realized about the Thornton trade is that it might make it easier to resign Thomas. It gave us $956,034 in cap space next season, and it gave us one less roster spot to fill. After signing Thomas, we would have the minimum 13 man roster rather than having to sign another player who would take up more space.

One more thing we can do to save some space is to trade one of our expirings for a late 2nd round pick. Acy and Evans are probably the most attractive given how much they make, but since this is a worst case scenario, we'll use Acy as the man traded away. Peyton Siva was the 56th draft pick last year and he makes $490,180 this year. I'm going to assume our 2nd round draft pick will make the same amount of money in this scenario. Acy's contract ($915,243) minus our 2nd Round Draft Pick ($490,180) would be $425,063 saved. It's not much, but every dollar counts.. This is what the cap situation will look like:

1st pick: $3,536,332 before hitting the Luxury Tax Level
2nd pick: $4,096,852 before hitting the Luxury Tax Level
3rd pick: $4,582,612 before hitting the Luxury Tax Level
4th pick: $5,003,572 before hitting the Luxury Tax Level
5th pick: $5,367,892 before hitting the Luxury Tax Level
6th pick: $5,688,292 before hitting the Luxury Tax Level
7th pick: $5,964,652 before hitting the Luxury Tax Level

And we would be able to offer Thomas these contracts:

1st pick: $15,817,736 over 4 years / average of $3,954,434 per year
2nd pick: $18,324,898 over 4 years / average of $4,581,224 per year
3rd pick: $20,497,665 over 4 years / average of $5,124,416 per year
4th pick: $22,380,586 over 4 years / average of $5,595,146 per year
5th pick: $24,010,161 over 4 years / average of $6,002,540 per year
6th pick: $25,443,285 over 4 years / average of $6,360,821 per year
7th pick: $26,679,422 over 4 years / average of $6,669,855 per year

This gives us more leeway while negotiating with Thomas. If we did resign Thomas and trade Acy, our lineup would look like this:

PG – Thomas/McCallum
SG – McLemore/Terry
SF – Gay/Williams/Outlaw
PF – Thompson/Landry
C – Cousins/Evans
And a 2014 1st & 2nd Round Draft Pick

The FO could also shop a player on draft day to try and free up more space if they need to. If they wanted to trade Williams for a late 1st rounder, we would have more cap space for Thomas and Acy or Thomas and possibly a MLE player (Jordan Hill or Ed Davis would be nice targets assuming we didn't draft a shotblocker and that we plan on moving Landry at some point in the future) depending on how much Thomas’ contract would cost.

 

[upinsmoke]

We have to pick up Acy's option players like him are always welcomed in white&purple and as you eluded to there are other ways to work around the luxury tax if indeed it's a major hurdle because so far I have not heard the Kings say to much about it. I think the Kings shopped IT to see what kind of value he has in the eyes of the other teams and take in consideration he's hitting the market with Bledsoe and Lowry. I think that around 4/5M per year should get it done.

 

[twslam07]

We have to pick up Acy's option players like him are always welcomed in white&purple and as you eluded to there are other ways to work around the luxury tax if indeed it's a major hurdle because so far I have not heard the Kings say to much about it. I think the Kings shopped IT to see what kind of value he has in the eyes of the other teams and take in consideration he's hitting the market with Bledsoe and Lowry. I think that around 4/5M per year should get it done.

I'm sorry, but Thomas is the more valuable player. If I have to release Acy to keep Thomas, I'm going to do it ten out of ten times. Now notice how I used "have to" in that last sentence. As you and I both eluded to, there are ways to free up space during the offseason to keep Thomas and Acy, but I'm not going to go out of my way to free up space just so I can make room for a 6'7" 4th/5th big off the bench. I'm going to free up space to make sure I can retain Thomas.

Acy is a fun player to watch. He brings it night in and night out, but he's not a core player that I'm going to be stressing over if I can't retain him. I can find low skilled/high energy big men much easier than I can find a sixth man PG who averaged 46% from the floor, 40% from three, 86% from the line, 17.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.4 SPG, and 2.6 TOPG coming off the bench this year.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Acy is basically making league minimum. We wouldn't gain much by cutting him because we'd have to replace him with another player. In fact, even under the scenario you propose with a first-rounder, IT, and keeping Acy we still would only be at 12 players and would need to add another to get to the minimum roster of 13.

I admit the numbers look a bit rough, but there are a few potential saving graces. One, it's likely that we'll continue being active and make some trades in the offseason. Terry is certainly going to be trade bait, as are Outlaw and Derrick Williams (all three expiring, Acy and Evans are expiring as well but smaller potentially useful contract) and nobody seems to think that either Thompson or Landry is fundamentally safe. We may clear a bit of space through trades.

The other thing is that the tax level isn't a hard level. If we cross it, we cross it, and it costs us money - if we go $2M over, we'd pay a total of $3M extra in tax. The nice thing is that the tax will only apply for one year, because we've got plenty of expiring contracts for the following year. One year of tax is really not a disaster, if putting together a winning team requires it.

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

Unfortunately, they'll probably decide to let Acy go and hold on to Evans for that spot and style. A shame, since Acy is a better all around player than Evans. A far better shooter.

It would be disappointing, since Quincy is my favorite player on the team. I hope we can hold him

 

[LPKingsFan]

Unfortunately, they'll probably decide to let Acy go and hold on to Evans for that spot and style. A shame, since Acy is a better all around player than Evans. A far better shooter.

It would be disappointing, since Quincy is my favorite player on the team. I hope we can hold him

How can you assume that before we've seen Evans play a single game?

 

[Glenn]

Do you want IT as a 6th man? If so, we would have to get a starter. If we sign IT as a starter, I'll throw up.

 

[Gilles]

To twslam07: you're forgetting that Kings have the 5th year to offer.

Do you want IT as a 6th man? If so, we would have to get a starter. If we sign IT as a starter, I'll throw up.

Kings will have massive expirings after July, 1st: picking starting PG might be accomplished during next season. Rudy's decision is obviously the key to the team building process: if he opt out and gets away, Kings have totally different set of decisions to make.http://kingsfans.com/members/twslam07.13043/

 

[Glenn]

To twslam07: you're forgetting that Kings have the 5th year to offer.
Kings will have massive expirings after July, 1st: picking starting PG might be accomplished during next season. Rudy's decision is obviously the key to the team building process: if he opt out and gets away, Kings have totally different set of decisions to make.

I'd love to have Rudy opt out to sign a longer contract with us. Make it the equivalent to Cuz just for the psychology of the thing. Duel leadership. Batman and Robin. Tom Hagin and Michael Corleone.

Are you sure there are massive expirings this year. I thought it was next year.

 

[twslam07]

Acy is basically making league minimum. We wouldn't gain much by cutting him because we'd have to replace him with another player. In fact, even under the scenario you propose with a first-rounder, IT, and keeping Acy we still would only be at 12 players and would need to add another to get to the minimum roster of 13.

My mistake. I thought the minimum was 12 players, but it's actually 12 active and 1 inactive so 13 total. You're essentially right then when you say it wouldn't make much sense to cut Acy since he is making very close to the league minimum next year. However, we could trade him for a late 2014 2nd round pick to save a little bit of cash while maintaining that 13 man roster. Acy will make $915,243 next year. Peton Siva from Detroit was drafted 56th last year and is making $490,180 this year. Using that same salary for our 2014 2nd round draft pick we traded for, we would essentially save $425,063 in cap next season. It's not much, but every dollar counts.

I admit the numbers look a bit rough, but there are a few potential saving graces. One, it's likely that we'll continue being active and make some trades in the offseason. Terry is certainly going to be trade bait, as are Outlaw and Derrick Williams (all three expiring, Acy and Evans are expiring as well but smaller potentially useful contract) and nobody seems to think that either Thompson or Landry is fundamentally safe. We may clear a bit of space through trades.

There are ways to shed salary in the offseason, but the easiest way is to do it through the draft (e.g. player for pick). In this scenario, you usually have to give up something of value. I certainly don't see anyone willing to give up a pick to add Terry or Outlaw to their roster. This is why I suggested Williams initially. We could potentially offer some of our expirings in return for players that will cost less this year, but probably don't expire in 2015. We might be able to squeeze out an extra million or two in such a trade.

The other thing is that the tax level isn't a hard level. If we cross it, we cross it, and it costs us money - if we go $2M over, we'd pay a total of $3M extra in tax. The nice thing is that the tax will only apply for one year, because we've got plenty of expiring contracts for the following year. One year of tax is really not a disaster, if putting together a winning team requires it.

You're right that the tax would only apply for 1 year, but there are stipulations that carry over into the next season. For example, the size of our MLE that we can offer goes from $5.15 mil to $3.1 mil. That's a pretty significant difference when looking for a solid roleplayer to fill out your team. This is the main reason why I would like the Kings to stay out of the tax. If they can stay out of the tax this season, they will have plenty of cap space to sign free agents and a $5.15 mil MLE to offer.

 

[Gilles]

Acy is basically making league minimum. We wouldn't gain much by cutting him because we'd have to replace him with another player. In fact, even under the scenario you propose with a first-rounder, IT, and keeping Acy we still would only be at 12 players and would need to add another to get to the minimum roster of 13.

I admit the numbers look a bit rough, but there are a few potential saving graces. One, it's likely that we'll continue being active and make some trades in the offseason. Terry is certainly going to be trade bait, as are Outlaw and Derrick Williams (all three expiring, Acy and Evans are expiring as well but smaller potentially useful contract) and nobody seems to think that either Thompson or Landry is fundamentally safe. We may clear a bit of space through trades.

The other thing is that the tax level isn't a hard level. If we cross it, we cross it, and it costs us money - if we go $2M over, we'd pay a total of $3M extra in tax. The nice thing is that the tax will only apply for one year, because we've got plenty of expiring contracts for the following year. One year of tax is really not a disaster, if putting together a winning team requires it.

You also don't get LT money from other teams. In summer 2013 half of total LT money was spent on revenue sharing, but from now on it will once again be shared between non-payers.

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

I've mentioned this in a few other threads, but our we sure we want to keep Gay long-term?

I don't know that I know the answer to that yet, which is why I would be weary of him opting out and then signing a new, long-term deal with us. I don't mind letting him play next year out.

He's been good so far, I'll give him that.

 

[LPKingsFan]

I've mentioned this in a few other threads, but our we sure we want to keep Gay long-term?

I don't know that I know the answer to that yet, which is why I would be weary of him opting out and then signing a new, long-term deal with us. I don't mind letting him play next year out.

He's been good so far, I'll give him that.

I think that's an important point. It's certainly been encouraging to see the potential fit with Cousins, but given the small sample size so far I'd think it'd be best to keep that qualifier, potential fit, for now. Gathering more data points is what the rest of the season is for. Heck, we don't know one way or another whether Rudy would want to stay! I certainly hope so, but I'm not sure we can assume we have a big 3, or 2, or anything long term quite yet.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

You're right that the tax would only apply for 1 year, but there are stipulations that carry over into the next season. For example, the size of our MLE that we can offer goes from $5.15 mil to $3.1 mil.

Where did you read that the Taxpayer MLE carries over into the next season? I've read the CBA FAQ pretty carefully and I was never under the impression the Taxpayer MLE carried over into the subsequent season.

 

[twslam07]

Where did you read that the Taxpayer MLE carries over into the next season? I've read the CBA FAQ pretty carefully and I was never under the impression the Taxpayer MLE carried over into the subsequent season.

Once a year, teams can use a mid-level exception (MLE) to sign a player to a contract for a specified maximum amount. The amount of the MLE and its duration depend on the team's cap status. The MLE was initially set at $5 million for a duration of four years for teams that are over the cap either before or after the signing, but did not pay a luxury tax in the previous season. Teams without cap room that paid tax in the previous season have an MLE that was initially set at $3 million with a three-year duration. Teams with cap room, previously ineligible for the MLE, have a new MLE, initially $2.5 million with a two-year duration. The MLE was frozen at the stated levels through the 2012–13 season, since then, it will increase by 3% per season (with the percentage based on the initial amount of the exception, and not compounded).[6] In turn, this means that MLEs in the current 2013–14 season are:

 

[Gary]

Do you want IT as a 6th man? If so, we would have to get a starter. If we sign IT as a starter, I'll throw up.

Why? Is it just the defense or do you not like the Iverson'esque offensive game he has? High assists but high amount of shots.

Looks like the league is going this direction so I assume we will probably keep him. True PGs are harder and harder to come by.

 

[Toasty]

"Retaining Thomas" didn't Sean Connery star on that years ago?

 

[Glenn]

Why? Is it just the defense or do you not like the Iverson'esque offensive game he has? High assists but high amount of shots.

Looks like the league is going this direction so I assume we will probably keep him. True PGs are harder and harder to come by.

It's a personal opinion. Debating it is tiresome. Never changes anyone's mind anyway.

 

[Hadlowe]

Why? Is it just the defense or do you not like the Iverson'esque offensive game he has? High assists but high amount of shots.

Looks like the league is going this direction so I assume we will probably keep him. True PGs are harder and harder to come by.

Which is a little bit sad. We, as NBA fans, keep elevating these little scorers to stardom and then watch as they inevitably fizzle in the playoffs when they get matched up against defensive teams that just switch a wing onto them and shut them down.

If the Kings made the playoffs this year in the 8th seed, we would be matched up against the Thunder, and when push came to shove, Thabo would just shut Thomas down completely.

 

[Gary]

It's a personal opinion. Debating it is tiresome. Never changes anyone's mind anyway.

Well I wouldn't "throw up" or anything, I do think he's better off the bench though. In order for It to be the perfect PG for us in my book he would have to be a better defender, take about 3-5 less shots per game, and learn to distribute better than he has this year. His "improved defense" would have to also be against SGs when there is a switch. I don't really care how tall he is as long as he can play D.

But as it stands now he game is definitely tailored to 6th man role. If he was in OKC I believe he would flourish in that role.

 

[Padrino]

Why? Is it just the defense or do you not like the Iverson'esque offensive game he has? High assists but high amount of shots.

Looks like the league is going this direction so I assume we will probably keep him. True PGs are harder and harder to come by.

both. also, the league is clearly trending away from low-post oriented bigs. but the kings have, ya know, the premier offensive center in the nba. so you don't f*** that up just because you want a perimeter-oriented offense featuring an exceedingly ball dominant PG who fancies himself to be the second coming of allen iverson (who never won a damn thing, for the record)...

 

[Gary]

Which is a little bit sad. We, as NBA fans, keep elevating these little scorers to stardom and then watch as they inevitably fizzle in the playoffs when they get matched up against defensive teams that just switch a wing onto them and shut them down.

If the Kings made the playoffs this year in the 8th seed, we would be matched up against the Thunder, and when push came to shove, Thabo would just shut Thomas down completely.

I am a fan of the pure PG. These shoot first guys like Allen Iverson (and many many others) just screams ball hog, no matter how many assists they get per game. Grant Napear obviously does not see that as he just goes off of stats rather than actually seeing how he's getting those stats.

 

[randymoss1881]

There's no need to spend money on IT when you can draft Ennis, Exum, or Smart to replace him.

 

[Toasty]

How many score first PG's
Have won a title?

 

[twslam07]

There's no need to spend money on IT when you can draft Ennis, Exum, or Smart to replace him.

It depends on what you mean by "money." Do you mean starters' money? Do you mean sixth man money? Do you mean any money?

In essence, I would disagree with this. If we draft a PG, we could use Thomas as a sixth man. I don't see why drafting a PG renders Thomas useless to us.

Also, just letting him go is a talent bleed. You can sign him without the intention of him being in your long term plans just so you have a valuable trading chip down the road to bring back a player we could use rather than having no trading chip at all.

 

[sdballer]

How many score first PG's
Have won a title?

Two if you consider Isiah Thomas and Ton Parker to be score first

 

[sdballer]

It depends on what you mean by "money." Do you mean starters' money? Do you mean sixth man money? Do you mean any money?

In essence, I would disagree with this. If we draft a PG, we could use Thomas as a sixth man. I don't see why drafting a PG renders Thomas useless to us.

Also, just letting him go is a talent bleed. You can sign him without the intention of him being in your long term plans just so you have a valuable trading chip down the road to bring back a player we could use rather than having no trading chip at all.

Which is all well and good but I don't get the impression IT is going to ever be comfortable as a 6th man with 6th man money.

 

[twslam07]

How many score first PG's
Have won a title?

I'm hard pressed to say, but I think there will be one within a few years. Westbrook and Lillard have a shot this year while Rose could have a shot later down the line.

 

[twslam07]

Two if you consider Isiah Thomas and Ton Parker to be score first

I'm not sure I would call Parker a shoot first PG. His career average is under 14 shots a game for 33 minutes of play. Compare that to Thomas (our Thomas), who's averaging 17 shots a game in 34 minutes of play this season (as a starter).

 

[twslam07]

Which is all well and good but I don't get the impression IT is going to ever be comfortable as a 6th man with 6th man money.

Then he becomes the tradeable asset I referred to.